1. Economic Forecasting Paper
Economic Forecasting Paper
Bridgette Baehler, Elena Guzman, David Haynes, Adam Johnson,
Anke Mahoney, Angela Villella
Eco/372
November 26, 2012
John Ilokwu, Ph.D.

2. Economic Forecasting Paper
Economic Forecasting Paper
Introduction
Economic forecasting is an important aspect of the financial world because it helps
people understand how things may be in the future based on current and historical data. Many
different databases are available for finding out historical economic data and forecast the
economic data for the future. Topics from this week are helpful when trying to understand the
data and can help with improving the economic future of our government and the companies
within our country. This reflection will help us understand our strengths and weaknesses, and
also find the resources available for finding economic data to improve the economy.
Historical Economic Data Resources
The BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) produces independent budget analysis and
economic issues to support congressional budget processes, and it also conducts objectives
impartial to analysis. This source is valuable because it contains a large amount of valuable
information in one place. There are different divisions that work together to foster collaboration
and teamwork cross divisional to complete an accurate economic forecast. These include
National, International, Regional, Industry, and Integrated Accounts all of which include national
income and product accounts (NIPAs), and the gross domestic product to name a few (U.S.
Bureau of Economic Analysis 2012).

3. Economic Forecasting Paper
Another possible resource is called FRED, or the Federal Reserve Economic Data. It is an
online database that consists of thousands of economic data from many different sources. FRED
was created and maintained now by the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of St.
Louis. The database goes beyond just providing data. It combines the data with other tools that
will help the user understand, interact with, and display the data. This source is valuable because
it not only gives the user information, but allows them to interact and create their own data
stories. This can help the user read the data and understand what they are looking at. That is very
important because it can be hard to read economic data ("Economic Research - Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis", n.d.).
Primary sources give you a more exact definition and measurement techniques, The
National Bureau of Economic Research is a primary source and they are responsible for
collecting and maintain up-to-date data. NBER collect data for the United States and other
countries like Germany, France, and the United Kingdom.
The NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) is one of the resources that have
been around a long time. It designed an extensive data set which covers pre-WWI economies and
interwar economies. The NBER also covers all areas of economics like production, construction,
employment, money, foreign trade, asset market transactions and even government activity.

4. Economic Forecasting Paper
Forecasting Economic Data Resources
When forecasting economic data, one of resources that should be used is GDP (Gross
Domestic Product). This resource is important because it is the overall dollar amount of goods
and product that has been produced within the country over a time period. The quantitative and
qualitative factor are the faster the money moves throughout the country, the GDP will increase
producing which will also increase quantities of product.
Another good resource for forecasting economic data is to look at the unemployment rate.
If the unemployment rate is high, the economy suffers because those that are unemployed have
less money to spend to stimulate the economy. If the unemployment rate is low, this means most
people are working and thus will have money to spend, stimulating the economy. Past trends can
be seen and future trends predicted simply by looking at the unemployment rate in the country.
The impact of various factors on aggregate demand and supply.
Many factors can have an impact on aggregate demand and supply. The distribution of
income will affect it because when wages increase, people have more money and they tend to
consume more. This will cause consumption expenditures to increase. Another factor that
impacts the aggregate demand and supply is foreign income. When foreign income rises, exports
will increase causing aggregate demand to increase. One last factor is monetary and fiscal
policies. The government can spend money and adjust taxes in order to influence how consumers
will spend money.

5. Economic Forecasting Paper
The effectiveness of changes in fiscal policies using Keynesian and Classical models.
Keynesian policy can help fight inflation and stimulate the economy through different
policies that can be put in place. When using the classical point, this may take the country a long
run to make a turnover but gives the consumers the control rather than relying on the government
to bail out the country.
Topics Comfortable with
The topics I felt comfortable with are the terms of GDP along with the differences of
unemployment. There are different types of unemployment such as a seasonal/temporary that
will always be in account along with unemployment due to employees cut or hours reduced
depending on the economy.
Topics Struggled With
At the beginning I struggled with the fiscal policy. I now realize that it deals with
government spending and taxation throughout the economy. Before this can be done it has to go
through Congress. The fiscal policy strives for full employment, stability of prices, and economic
growth.
Topics relation to field
I have learned a lot in the Week's Objectives. A portion of what has been learned is able
to be related into the field of work that I do. I understand and realize that unemployment is a
huge factor in this world today. I know that there are position available for those who want to
work and will work hard in their position. I have learned that there are different types of
unemployment.

6. Economic Forecasting Paper
The field of work I now work in which is Business and the office I work at there has only
been one type of unemployment. This type of unemployment is when employees get terminated
because of a reason which can lead all the way up to the lack of work and poor performance. At
previous fields of work I have noticed that there is a lot of temporary unemployment. This
happens to many employees at golf courses who are employed for a couple months of the season
then they can collect unemployment for the months that they are laid off due to the lack of work
out of the golf season.
Conclusion
As we have determined, many resources exist for finding out historical economic data
and forecast the economic data for the future. Using these databases can help anyone understand
what is going on in our economy and help determine what needs to be done to improve for the
future. This class has been helpful with providing a lot of important information about
economics and how it can be used to understand our economy and what needs to be done to
make it better. There are struggles for every one of us, but this class will help us gain a better
understanding of economic terms and data.

7. Economic Forecasting Paper
References
Colander, D. C. (2010). Macroeconomics (8th ed.). Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
Economic Research - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (n.d.). Retrieved from
http://fredqa.stlouisfed.org/2012/06/19/what-is-fred/
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. (2012). U.S. Economic Accounts. Retrieved from
http://www.bea.gov/index.htm.
Library of Economics and Liberty (1999-2008) Retrieved from
http://www.econlib.org/library/sitemap.html