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Asian Trade -Devesh

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Asian Trade -Devesh

  1. 1. Presented by – Devesh Patidar ASIAN Trades ASIAN Trades
  2. 2. <ul><li>Content </li></ul><ul><li>Major trade block </li></ul><ul><li>Patterns of trade </li></ul><ul><li>Role and impact of FTAs & RTAs </li></ul><ul><li>Trade in goods performance </li></ul><ul><li>Trade in services performance </li></ul><ul><li>Role of Foreign Investment </li></ul><ul><li>Public-private partnerships </li></ul><ul><li>Implications </li></ul>
  3. 3. Trade Blocks in Asia <ul><li>ASEAN </li></ul><ul><li>SAARC </li></ul><ul><li>ASIA Pacific </li></ul>
  4. 4. ASEAN ( 8 August 1967)
  5. 5. SAARC ( December 8,  1985 )
  6. 6. ASIA Pacific ( 1980 )
  7. 7. 1. Patterns of trade in Asia - Over 50% of trade by countries in the region is within the region - China’s role as a major exporter and importer, as well as investor looms ever larger - When seen in terms of sub-regions, however, it is clear that within South Asia, intraregional trade is much more limited (6%). India’s major markets are now in East Asia
  8. 8. 2. Role and impact of FTAs and RTAs - Various questions were raised: does trade expand more as a result of trade agreements, or is their impact quite marginal in practice? Are they “weak and light”? - Is there such a proliferation of the noodle bowl that trade becomes more complicated and may as well revert to MFN principles? - Do trade agreement pose a threat to, or do they reinforce WTO agreements?
  9. 9. <ul><li>- Could some of them eventually be ruled as illegal </li></ul><ul><li>by WTO rules (which are currently couched in very </li></ul><ul><li>vague terms). </li></ul><ul><li>- Is the way forward to strengthen an enhanced East Asian </li></ul><ul><li>trade market on one hand, an enhanced SAARC on the </li></ul><ul><li>other and build bridges between them. </li></ul><ul><li>- Or is the best way forward to build the East Asian summit </li></ul><ul><li>(EAS) initiative encompassing 50% of the world’s </li></ul><ul><li>population and comprising potentially the largest </li></ul><ul><li>economic bloc in the world. </li></ul>
  10. 10. 3. Trade in goods performance <ul><li>- Degree of liberalization is critical. With some </li></ul><ul><li>exceptions, East & Southeast Asia is more </li></ul><ul><li>liberalized than South Asia. Some slowdown, but China racing ahead . </li></ul><ul><li>- Huge contrast between China and India in respect of “ease of trading across borders” (38th and 139th in world ranking). Do more liberal economies lead to greater domestic inequalities? </li></ul>
  11. 11. <ul><li>Other factors concern cross-border trade facilitation, which is much more inhibited within South Asia. Examples include transport restrictions, product standards, arbitrary costs (“speed payments”) </li></ul><ul><li>- In South Asia, India is very dominant. In East Asia, China is very dominant. However political relations in South Asia inhibit more trade cooperation </li></ul>
  12. 12. 4. Trade in services performance <ul><li>Services trade is dependent on the state of economic development of countries </li></ul><ul><li>Services trade is, hither to, market driven with little contribution by regional or multilateral trade agreements </li></ul><ul><li>Transparency and appropriate regulatory regimes has more impact on promoting services trade than pure market access commitments </li></ul><ul><li>- Sequencing of service liberalization, bilateral versus multilateral liberalization are other issues which merit attention </li></ul>
  13. 13. 5. Role of Foreign Investment <ul><li>- Partly as a result of more defensive investment regimes and less integrated regional markets, FDI into South Asia has been at much lower levels than in East and Southeast Asia </li></ul><ul><li>- Outward investments - particularly in India and Pakistan - are controlled </li></ul>
  14. 14. <ul><li>“ Without further liberalization of investment, South Asia will not benefit from industrial restructuring and more trade” </li></ul><ul><li>- Patterns of investment in East and Southeast Asia take a more regional perspective, helping to develop region wide value chains (e.g. car manufacturing) </li></ul>
  15. 15. <ul><li>A constructive relationship between Governments and private sector is indispensable for successful exporting </li></ul><ul><li>- In East and Southeast Asia the relationship appears to be more constructive than in South Asia, where the private sector identifies some Government regulations as obstructive to trade </li></ul>6. Public-private partnerships
  16. 16. <ul><li>- More trade facilitation (standards, documentation, rules, connectivity, etc.) and more predictability </li></ul><ul><li>Joint development of infrastructure and power </li></ul><ul><li>Freer movement of people across borders </li></ul><ul><li>More cooperation among business chambers </li></ul>Implications
  17. 17. <ul><li>Closer collaboration and better understanding between business and Government e.g. via trade support institutions </li></ul><ul><li>More liberalization and state regulation in both trade and investment </li></ul><ul><li>- Key role for Elder Brother India to play constructive role, both through SAARC and regionally </li></ul>
  18. 18. <ul><li>Thank You </li></ul>