Basic Civil Engineering notes on Transportation Engineering, Modes of Transpo...
Population and Climate Change
1.
2. Introduction
Global population : an overview
Population and Emissions
Population Policy
China and India : The Billionaires
Future Demographic Emissions
Conclusion
3. I = PAT
I = Environmental impact (I)
P= Population (P)
A= Affluence (economic product or consumption per person)
T= Technology
U NFPA—because everyone counts
5. “Future population growth in developing
nations could accentuate climate change.
A reduction in growth rates would,
therefore, help mitigate climate change
while speeding up poverty reduction and
development.” (Guzman 2009)
6. The 1980s and 1990s saw
the greatest numbers of
added people
7. Mortality declined :
-Medical advances (antibiotics
and vaccines)
-Dietary improvement
-Public health/Sanitation
-Safe drinking water
-Vector control
Fertility declined :
-Desired family size
-Link with education and income
-contraception
8. Population of the 20 most populous countries (millions)
1950 2010
1950 2100
11. - Uganda has average 6.67 children/woman
(one of the highest in the world)
- Prenzlau (East Germany) : less than 300
babies/year because of the lack of young
woman
- Thailand : only 6% of Thai women more than
60 attended any secondary school
- Andhra pradesh (India): young mothers
(married at 16), more than 60% women are
sterilized at 23.
12. Source: Khatib (2011)
“Population growth or decline will continue to be a key determinant of future
emissions increases” (Scheinder, et.al 2010)
21. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto,
Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into
force on 16 February 2005
International agreement linked to the
UNFCCC, which commits its Parties by
setting internationally binding emission
reduction targets
In Doha, Qatar, on 8 December 2012, the
"Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol"
was adopted.
22. 70% of future world population growth is take
place in 20 countries in Africa and Asia (not
included China)
Smaller families : education, health care,
family planning and opportunities for women
Reducing poverty and inequality can slow
population growth
Ensuring that every child is wanted and every
childbirth safe can
lead to smaller and stronger families
23. Population projections (high,
medium and low to 2300). The
United Nations high, medium,
and low population projections
are based on assumptions about
current and future fertility,
mortality, and migration. Data
from United Nations Population
Division (2004)
World Population to 2300.
Source :Leahy and Engelman,
2008
24. Developed countries
-Stable/declining population
- Lower growth : fewer opportunities for changes and
limitation for efficiency gains
- Infrastructures efficiency improvement
Developing countries
- High population rate
- Opportunity lower energy uses
Migration
25. Figure . Population by age and sex in more-
developed and less-developed countries, 2010
Source :Samir KC.2013
26. Population policy is important in mitigation
and adaptation to climate change
Reproductive health service
Fact: only 54% woman use modern
contraception, and less than 10% in Africa
Family planning especially in developing
countries
27.
28. China, US and India : more than 40% world’s
population and 45% produce CO2 emissions
Stabilizing global population is a key role to
address ‘cause and effect’ climate change
Scientific, political, technology and health
care might affect population growth
29. “People are part of the
Problem of Climate Change
and Part of The Solution”
(O’neill et.al 2001)
Editor's Notes
The milestone of 7 billion is marked by achievements, setbacks and paradoxes.While women are on average having fewer children than they were in the 1960s,our numbers continue to rise. Globally, people are younger—and older—than ever before. In some of the poorest countries, high fertility rates hamperdevelopment and perpetuate poverty, while in some of the richest countries, lowfertility rates and too few people entering the job market are raising concerns
Cohen, J. E. (2010). Population and Climate Change. Proceedings Of The American Philosophical Society, 154(2), 158-182Interactions between the human population and the environment,including climate, depend on economics and culture.Environmental impact (I) is the product (mathematically and causally) of population(P) times affluence (A, economic product or consumption per person)times the environmental impact per unit of economic activity (T), summarized
Human population enters our concerns about climate change at both the beginning andthe end of the causal chain: humans have produced the emissions that trigger climatechange; consequently the potentially dangerous impact of this change on humanwellbeing is our main cause for concern. On the left side of the chart, population is viewed as a driver of theemissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) which is in line with the moreconventional view. The I = PAT model tried to distinguish betweenthe supposedly separate effects of population size (P), consumptionassociated with affluence (A), and technological efficiency (T).Recent analyses have considered more complex effects and thepossibility of interactions. The PCC (Population and Climate Change)Project carried out at IIASA over the past five years under theleadership of Brian O’Neill produced a comprehensive model whichincludes the effects of changing household size, age structure, andurbanization on energy use. The findings show that populationaging and urbanization can have significant effects in addition topopulation size but that the size of the effect greatly depends onhow the question is posed.
These are some publications
Develop countries is less dynamics and static.
Demographic transition is standard framework used by population specialist to describe dynamic process of population growth. This framework is Under the assumption that net migration is zero. This framework shows the transistion from a regime of high fertility and mortality to low fertility and mortality in the end.
Key result: In 2100 ten out of the twenty most populous countries will be in Africa. Nigeria will be the third most populous country - replacing the United States of America.In 1950 there were seven European countries among the twenty most populous countries of the world (including the Russian Federation).There were only two European nations among the group of the twenty most populous nations in 2010 - Germany and the Russian Federation. China and India were, by far, the most populous countries in the World in 2010.Already by 2050 there will be only one European country among the twenty most populous nations - the Russian Federation. India will have become the most population country - with some 400 million people more than China.By the end of the century ten out of the twenty most populous countries will be in Africa (Nigeria, the United Republic of Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Zambia, Niger, Malawi, Sudan). Nigeria will be the third most populous country in the world. China's population will be some 600 million smaller than that of India.Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York
Source :Imad A. Khatib (2011). Municipal Solid Waste Management in Developing Countries: Future Challenges and Possible Opportunities, Integrated Waste Management - Volume II, Mr. Sunil Kumar (Ed.), ISBN: 978-953-307-447-4, InTech, DOI: 10.5772/16438. Humanity has rapidly shifted from society based on agriculture for economic system to an economic system that dependent on fossil fuel.
It is not an easy task to change the historical of percapita emissions.
China’s population is projected to peak and begin a slow decline due in part to the effects of the “one-child” family planning policy
In this animated population pyramid one can watch population change in China unfold over a 100 year period - between 1950 and 2050.For the period 1950 to 1995 the pyramid is based on population estimates of the UN Population Division; the data for 2000 to 2050 are from the most recent medium variant UN population projection.One can see how the "baby boom" generation from the 1960s and early 1970s "moves up" the age pyramid. The animation also visualizes the aging of the Chinese population, which is caused by the significant fertility decline since the mid-1970s (and the further increase in life expectancy). Within the next 3 decades the number of elderly people in China will increase massively.Source : http://webarchive.iiasa.ac.at
Recognizing that developed countries are principally responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions in the atmosphere as a result of more than 150 years of industrial activity, the Protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities."The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005. The detailed rules for the implementation of the Protocol were adopted at COP 7 in Marrakesh, Morocco, in 2001, and are referred to as the "Marrakesh Accords." Its first commitment period started in 2008 and ended in 2012.The amendment includes:New commitments for Annex I Parties to the Kyoto Protocol who agreed to take on commitments in a second commitment period from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2020;A revised list of greenhouse gases (GHG) to be reported on by Parties in the second commitment period; andAmendments to several articles of the Kyoto Protocol which specifically referenced issues pertaining to the first commitment period and which needed to be updated for the second commitment period.
If we compare with Scheinder data, Samir shows increasing data for woman who use contraceptive, it about 63%. Compare with Scheinder in previous slide (54%)
