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Macro Matters | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund

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Macro Matters | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund

  1. 1. MACRO MATTERS Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. • As per the recently released press note, Real GDP for Q2FY3 grew at 6.3% Y-o-Y while the GVA growth stood at 5.6% Y-o-Y. The wedge between GVA and GDP was due to robust GST collections. • The GDP engine was driven by acceleration in Services Sector^ which grew by 9% y-o-y while activity in the Manufacturing space remain muted • As the effect of exceptional favorable base is behind, the growth of GDP components reflect true economic momentum, with all sectors ahead of pre-pandemic levels • On the expenditure front, GDP can be understood in below triad: GDP – STREETS AHEAD OF THE PRE-PANDEMIC LEVEL Data source: Elara Capital, Ambit Research & Nirmal Bang Institution. Data as on Dec 01,2022 Is considered. GDP: Gross Domestic Product, GVA: Gross Value Added, FY: Financial Year, Y-o-Y: Year on Year, Tn: Trillion, Govt.: Government, Capex: Capital Expenditure ^Service Sector includes construction service GDP Final Consumption Private Government Net Export Exports Imports Gross Fixed Capital Formation i. Final Consumption: Private Final Consumption, accounting for more than half of GDP, grew by 9.7% Y-o-Y indicating strong underlying demand while Government Final Consumption declined by 4.4% Y-o-Y ii. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF): Frontloading of Govt Capex spending helped GFCF to maintain a steady position at 34.6% of the GDP. GFCF grew at 10.4% Y-o-Y basis reflecting robust capex formation iii. Net Export: Net Exports was a key drag in Q2FY23, declining by Rs 3.3Tn due to global growth moderation and restriction on export of key commodities • Though GDP has expanded due to sustained Govt & Private Investment and Consumption Revival (Domestic Tailwinds), exports dampened due to slowdown in global demand (Global Headwind) 2.80 -23.8 -6.6 0.7 2.5 20.1 8.4 5.4 4.1 13.5 6.3 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22 Q3FY22 Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23 Y-o-Y % Real GDP Growth Favorable base effect + Covid-19 Second Wave Favorable base effect

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