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Improving Institutional Capability and
Financial Viability to Sustain Transport
- An Evaluation of World Bank Group Support since 2002


                                Presentation at
                                Civil Society Policy Forum

                                April 17, 2013

                                Midori Makino
                                Independent Evaluation Group
Objective and Definition of Sustained Transport


     ► Objective of the evaluation is to assess the effectiveness of
     the World Bank Group (WB, IFC, and MIGA) support to
     countries to sustain transport

     ► Transport is sustained when key outcome indicators either
     achieved or almost achieved by the end of the project were
     sustained or improved beyond project closure

     ► Examples of Indicators include accessibility, travel time and
     costs (intercity highways, rural roads), congestion (urban and
     air transport, ports), rail traffic (railways) etc.

2
Evaluation Questions

    1. To what extent have World Bank Group strategies and
     operations aimed to ensure sustained transport?

    2. To what extent have countries implemented; (i) policies
     and regulatory framework, (ii) institutional framework, (iii)
     financial arrangements, and (iv) sector management and
     capacity building activities supported by the World Bank
     Group to sustain transport?

    3. How effective have these measures been?

    4. What factors have determined success?
3
Evaluation Framework

                                Country Priorities and Political Economy Factors

                                                  Intermediate                               Development
         Inputs               Outputs               Outcomes
                                                                          Outcomes             Impact




                           Physical              Financial                                     Poverty
                           infrastructure        Viability                                    Alleviation
       World Bank,
       IFC, and                                                         Sustained
       MIGA                                                             Transport
                           Transport
       Support                                                                                Economic
                           Sustaining            Institutional
                           Measures              Capability                                    Growth




           Economy of the Country, Demographic Changes, Natural Disasters, and Other External Factors

4
Evaluation Methodology/Building Blocks

     1. Review of World Bank Group sector and country strategies

     2. Portfolio review of World Bank Group operations approved from
      FY 2002-11 (573 lending , over 1,000 non-lending)

     3. Nine field- and eleven desk-based country focused project
      assessments covering 68 projects

     4. IEG’s 30 project performance assessment reports carried out
      during the past five years



5
Key Evaluation Findings




6
Sustained Transport of World Bank Projects Varies by
    Country Income and Sub-sector
                      % of Projects with Sustainable Transport Outcomes,
                  Based on Field and Desk Based Assessment of Project Results
                         (n=number of projects, c=number of countries)

    100%
                      78%
     80%                       67%
            52%                         57%                                            57%
     60%
                                                  46%
     40%                                                   33%       33%

     20%
                                                                                0%
      0%
           Low and Upper Intercity    Ports      Urban Aviation      Rural   Railways   All
            Lower   middle highways (n=7; c=7) Transport (n=6; c=5) Roads     (n=15; Projects
            middle and High (n=36;              (n=13;              (n=15;    c=11)   (n=68;
           Income Income     c=14)               c=11)              c=13)             c=20)
            (n=54;  (n=14;
            c=15)    c=5)

7
Projects that Planned and Implemented Measures were
    more likely to achieve Sustained Transport Outcomes
                   % of World Bank Transport Projects that achieved Sustained
                   Transport Outcomes by Implementation Status of Measures
      100%



      75%



      50%



      25%



       0%
               Sector policy and    Institutional    Sector Management         Financial
             regulatory framework    framework      and Capacity building   arrangements
                                                          activities
               Planned and implemented measure      Planned but not implemented measure
8
Sustained Transport is emphasized in Sector and Country
    Strategies, but it is not well reflected in Projects
               % of World Bank Transport Projects that Included Measures to Sustain
                              Transport by Fiscal Year of Approval
      100
       90
       80
       70
       60
       50
       40
       30
       20
       10
        0
            Sector policy and     Institutional   Sector management          Financial
               regulatory          framework         and capacity         arrangements
               framework                               building
                                        FY02-06     FY07-11
9
The Share of Projects with Sustained Transport in
    Objectives and Projects that Identified Risks have declined
                    % of World Bank Transport Projects that included Sustained
                 Transport in their Objectives and that identified maintenance risks
                                at appraisal by Fiscal Year of Approval
       45%
       40%
       35%
       30%
       25%
       20%
       15%
       10%
        5%
        0%
             Percentage of Projects with Sustainability as     Percentage of Projects that identified
                      part of their Objectives                    maintenance risks at appraisal
                                              FY02-06        FY07-11
1
0
Determinants for Success




1
1
Determinant 1: Focus in Project Design

    ► Transport is more likely to be sustained when such emphasis
      is reflected in project preparation and design:

        Sustained transport in objectives

        Measures to sustain transport in components

        Identification of maintenance shortfall risks




1
2
Determinant 2: Accountability and Incentive Structure


    ► Transport is more likely to be sustained when a clear
      accountability framework and incentive structures for
      operations and maintenance are in place, in cases such as:

        Contractual arrangements and user-pay principles,
         often featured in public-private partnerships such as
         operations supported by IFC

        Output- and performance based road contracts

        Microenterprise/community participatory models in
         rural roads
1
3
Determinant 3: Policy Level Interventions

    ► Transport is more likely to be sustained with broad based
      policy level interventions supporting investments operations:

         Development policy operations, public expenditure
          reviews, and other analytic and advisory activities and
          policy dialogue complementing specific investment
          loans

         Multi-modal planning and coordination at the country’s
          sector level, especially in planning railways

         Road network models under budget constraints in
          highways
1
4
Determinant 4: Client Ownership


    ► Transport is more likely to be sustained with continued
      WBG support to ensure strong Government ownership:

         Continuous and sequential engagement taking into
          account sector capacity

         Attention to political economy by identification of
          stakeholder concerns, communication, and
          consultation

         Mainstreaming of project activities in government
          systems
1
5
Other Evaluation Findings

    ► World Bank, IFC, and MIGA approaches to sustaining
      transport are different

    ► World Bank, IFC, and MIGA play complementary roles but
      there are missed opportunities for synergies

    ► Transport is more likely to be sustained when managed by the
      transport sector

    ► There is no systematic assessment of sustained transport
      outcomes beyond project closure
1
6
Recommendations for
    World Bank Group Management



1
7
1: Increase Focus in Project Preparation and Design

    ► Increase the focus on sustained transport in projects with
      sector reform objectives and components

    ► Systematically carry out ex-ante risk analysis and mitigation
      for operations and maintenance

    ► Link investment operations with sector-wide reforms
      through complementary activities

    ► Transport components managed by other sectors should be
      integrated into transport sector plans and strategies

1
8
2: Improve Long-Run Financial Viability

    ► Engage policy makers for maintenance funding at high level

    ► Critically assess the viability of investments especially for
      railways

    ► Support to urban transport should include financial analysis of
      overall system and pay attention to affordability concerns.




1
9
3: Strengthen Institutional Capability

    ► Mainstream proven accountability and incentive
      frameworks

    ► Encourage continuous and sequential engagement and
      support government-led reforms

    ► Support governments to put in place a process for
      systematically monitoring and evaluating sustained
      transport outcomes



2
0
Thank You for Your Attention




       The complete evaluation is available on IEG’s website:
       http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/publications


2
1

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Improving Institutional Capability and Financial Viability to Sustain Transport

  • 1. Improving Institutional Capability and Financial Viability to Sustain Transport - An Evaluation of World Bank Group Support since 2002 Presentation at Civil Society Policy Forum April 17, 2013 Midori Makino Independent Evaluation Group
  • 2. Objective and Definition of Sustained Transport ► Objective of the evaluation is to assess the effectiveness of the World Bank Group (WB, IFC, and MIGA) support to countries to sustain transport ► Transport is sustained when key outcome indicators either achieved or almost achieved by the end of the project were sustained or improved beyond project closure ► Examples of Indicators include accessibility, travel time and costs (intercity highways, rural roads), congestion (urban and air transport, ports), rail traffic (railways) etc. 2
  • 3. Evaluation Questions 1. To what extent have World Bank Group strategies and operations aimed to ensure sustained transport? 2. To what extent have countries implemented; (i) policies and regulatory framework, (ii) institutional framework, (iii) financial arrangements, and (iv) sector management and capacity building activities supported by the World Bank Group to sustain transport? 3. How effective have these measures been? 4. What factors have determined success? 3
  • 4. Evaluation Framework Country Priorities and Political Economy Factors Intermediate Development Inputs Outputs Outcomes Outcomes Impact Physical Financial Poverty infrastructure Viability Alleviation World Bank, IFC, and Sustained MIGA Transport Transport Support Economic Sustaining Institutional Measures Capability Growth Economy of the Country, Demographic Changes, Natural Disasters, and Other External Factors 4
  • 5. Evaluation Methodology/Building Blocks 1. Review of World Bank Group sector and country strategies 2. Portfolio review of World Bank Group operations approved from FY 2002-11 (573 lending , over 1,000 non-lending) 3. Nine field- and eleven desk-based country focused project assessments covering 68 projects 4. IEG’s 30 project performance assessment reports carried out during the past five years 5
  • 7. Sustained Transport of World Bank Projects Varies by Country Income and Sub-sector % of Projects with Sustainable Transport Outcomes, Based on Field and Desk Based Assessment of Project Results (n=number of projects, c=number of countries) 100% 78% 80% 67% 52% 57% 57% 60% 46% 40% 33% 33% 20% 0% 0% Low and Upper Intercity Ports Urban Aviation Rural Railways All Lower middle highways (n=7; c=7) Transport (n=6; c=5) Roads (n=15; Projects middle and High (n=36; (n=13; (n=15; c=11) (n=68; Income Income c=14) c=11) c=13) c=20) (n=54; (n=14; c=15) c=5) 7
  • 8. Projects that Planned and Implemented Measures were more likely to achieve Sustained Transport Outcomes % of World Bank Transport Projects that achieved Sustained Transport Outcomes by Implementation Status of Measures 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Sector policy and Institutional Sector Management Financial regulatory framework framework and Capacity building arrangements activities Planned and implemented measure Planned but not implemented measure 8
  • 9. Sustained Transport is emphasized in Sector and Country Strategies, but it is not well reflected in Projects % of World Bank Transport Projects that Included Measures to Sustain Transport by Fiscal Year of Approval 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Sector policy and Institutional Sector management Financial regulatory framework and capacity arrangements framework building FY02-06 FY07-11 9
  • 10. The Share of Projects with Sustained Transport in Objectives and Projects that Identified Risks have declined % of World Bank Transport Projects that included Sustained Transport in their Objectives and that identified maintenance risks at appraisal by Fiscal Year of Approval 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Percentage of Projects with Sustainability as Percentage of Projects that identified part of their Objectives maintenance risks at appraisal FY02-06 FY07-11 1 0
  • 12. Determinant 1: Focus in Project Design ► Transport is more likely to be sustained when such emphasis is reflected in project preparation and design:  Sustained transport in objectives  Measures to sustain transport in components  Identification of maintenance shortfall risks 1 2
  • 13. Determinant 2: Accountability and Incentive Structure ► Transport is more likely to be sustained when a clear accountability framework and incentive structures for operations and maintenance are in place, in cases such as:  Contractual arrangements and user-pay principles, often featured in public-private partnerships such as operations supported by IFC  Output- and performance based road contracts  Microenterprise/community participatory models in rural roads 1 3
  • 14. Determinant 3: Policy Level Interventions ► Transport is more likely to be sustained with broad based policy level interventions supporting investments operations:  Development policy operations, public expenditure reviews, and other analytic and advisory activities and policy dialogue complementing specific investment loans  Multi-modal planning and coordination at the country’s sector level, especially in planning railways  Road network models under budget constraints in highways 1 4
  • 15. Determinant 4: Client Ownership ► Transport is more likely to be sustained with continued WBG support to ensure strong Government ownership:  Continuous and sequential engagement taking into account sector capacity  Attention to political economy by identification of stakeholder concerns, communication, and consultation  Mainstreaming of project activities in government systems 1 5
  • 16. Other Evaluation Findings ► World Bank, IFC, and MIGA approaches to sustaining transport are different ► World Bank, IFC, and MIGA play complementary roles but there are missed opportunities for synergies ► Transport is more likely to be sustained when managed by the transport sector ► There is no systematic assessment of sustained transport outcomes beyond project closure 1 6
  • 17. Recommendations for World Bank Group Management 1 7
  • 18. 1: Increase Focus in Project Preparation and Design ► Increase the focus on sustained transport in projects with sector reform objectives and components ► Systematically carry out ex-ante risk analysis and mitigation for operations and maintenance ► Link investment operations with sector-wide reforms through complementary activities ► Transport components managed by other sectors should be integrated into transport sector plans and strategies 1 8
  • 19. 2: Improve Long-Run Financial Viability ► Engage policy makers for maintenance funding at high level ► Critically assess the viability of investments especially for railways ► Support to urban transport should include financial analysis of overall system and pay attention to affordability concerns. 1 9
  • 20. 3: Strengthen Institutional Capability ► Mainstream proven accountability and incentive frameworks ► Encourage continuous and sequential engagement and support government-led reforms ► Support governments to put in place a process for systematically monitoring and evaluating sustained transport outcomes 2 0
  • 21. Thank You for Your Attention The complete evaluation is available on IEG’s website: http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/publications 2 1