Over the past decade, the World Bank, International Finance Corporation and Multilateral Investment Guarantees Agency have committed about $50 billion for operations or guarantees in the transport sector; yet inadequate operations and maintenance has remained a concern. This is a presentation of main findings from the evaluation of the effectiveness of World Bank Group support to countries in sustaining the provision of transport infrastructure and services and distills lessons on the factors contributing to sustained transport.
Improving Institutional Capability and Financial Viability to Sustain Transport
1. Improving Institutional Capability and
Financial Viability to Sustain Transport
- An Evaluation of World Bank Group Support since 2002
Presentation at
Civil Society Policy Forum
April 17, 2013
Midori Makino
Independent Evaluation Group
2. Objective and Definition of Sustained Transport
► Objective of the evaluation is to assess the effectiveness of
the World Bank Group (WB, IFC, and MIGA) support to
countries to sustain transport
► Transport is sustained when key outcome indicators either
achieved or almost achieved by the end of the project were
sustained or improved beyond project closure
► Examples of Indicators include accessibility, travel time and
costs (intercity highways, rural roads), congestion (urban and
air transport, ports), rail traffic (railways) etc.
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3. Evaluation Questions
1. To what extent have World Bank Group strategies and
operations aimed to ensure sustained transport?
2. To what extent have countries implemented; (i) policies
and regulatory framework, (ii) institutional framework, (iii)
financial arrangements, and (iv) sector management and
capacity building activities supported by the World Bank
Group to sustain transport?
3. How effective have these measures been?
4. What factors have determined success?
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4. Evaluation Framework
Country Priorities and Political Economy Factors
Intermediate Development
Inputs Outputs Outcomes
Outcomes Impact
Physical Financial Poverty
infrastructure Viability Alleviation
World Bank,
IFC, and Sustained
MIGA Transport
Transport
Support Economic
Sustaining Institutional
Measures Capability Growth
Economy of the Country, Demographic Changes, Natural Disasters, and Other External Factors
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5. Evaluation Methodology/Building Blocks
1. Review of World Bank Group sector and country strategies
2. Portfolio review of World Bank Group operations approved from
FY 2002-11 (573 lending , over 1,000 non-lending)
3. Nine field- and eleven desk-based country focused project
assessments covering 68 projects
4. IEG’s 30 project performance assessment reports carried out
during the past five years
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7. Sustained Transport of World Bank Projects Varies by
Country Income and Sub-sector
% of Projects with Sustainable Transport Outcomes,
Based on Field and Desk Based Assessment of Project Results
(n=number of projects, c=number of countries)
100%
78%
80% 67%
52% 57% 57%
60%
46%
40% 33% 33%
20%
0%
0%
Low and Upper Intercity Ports Urban Aviation Rural Railways All
Lower middle highways (n=7; c=7) Transport (n=6; c=5) Roads (n=15; Projects
middle and High (n=36; (n=13; (n=15; c=11) (n=68;
Income Income c=14) c=11) c=13) c=20)
(n=54; (n=14;
c=15) c=5)
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8. Projects that Planned and Implemented Measures were
more likely to achieve Sustained Transport Outcomes
% of World Bank Transport Projects that achieved Sustained
Transport Outcomes by Implementation Status of Measures
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
Sector policy and Institutional Sector Management Financial
regulatory framework framework and Capacity building arrangements
activities
Planned and implemented measure Planned but not implemented measure
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9. Sustained Transport is emphasized in Sector and Country
Strategies, but it is not well reflected in Projects
% of World Bank Transport Projects that Included Measures to Sustain
Transport by Fiscal Year of Approval
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Sector policy and Institutional Sector management Financial
regulatory framework and capacity arrangements
framework building
FY02-06 FY07-11
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10. The Share of Projects with Sustained Transport in
Objectives and Projects that Identified Risks have declined
% of World Bank Transport Projects that included Sustained
Transport in their Objectives and that identified maintenance risks
at appraisal by Fiscal Year of Approval
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Percentage of Projects with Sustainability as Percentage of Projects that identified
part of their Objectives maintenance risks at appraisal
FY02-06 FY07-11
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0
12. Determinant 1: Focus in Project Design
► Transport is more likely to be sustained when such emphasis
is reflected in project preparation and design:
Sustained transport in objectives
Measures to sustain transport in components
Identification of maintenance shortfall risks
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13. Determinant 2: Accountability and Incentive Structure
► Transport is more likely to be sustained when a clear
accountability framework and incentive structures for
operations and maintenance are in place, in cases such as:
Contractual arrangements and user-pay principles,
often featured in public-private partnerships such as
operations supported by IFC
Output- and performance based road contracts
Microenterprise/community participatory models in
rural roads
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14. Determinant 3: Policy Level Interventions
► Transport is more likely to be sustained with broad based
policy level interventions supporting investments operations:
Development policy operations, public expenditure
reviews, and other analytic and advisory activities and
policy dialogue complementing specific investment
loans
Multi-modal planning and coordination at the country’s
sector level, especially in planning railways
Road network models under budget constraints in
highways
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15. Determinant 4: Client Ownership
► Transport is more likely to be sustained with continued
WBG support to ensure strong Government ownership:
Continuous and sequential engagement taking into
account sector capacity
Attention to political economy by identification of
stakeholder concerns, communication, and
consultation
Mainstreaming of project activities in government
systems
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16. Other Evaluation Findings
► World Bank, IFC, and MIGA approaches to sustaining
transport are different
► World Bank, IFC, and MIGA play complementary roles but
there are missed opportunities for synergies
► Transport is more likely to be sustained when managed by the
transport sector
► There is no systematic assessment of sustained transport
outcomes beyond project closure
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18. 1: Increase Focus in Project Preparation and Design
► Increase the focus on sustained transport in projects with
sector reform objectives and components
► Systematically carry out ex-ante risk analysis and mitigation
for operations and maintenance
► Link investment operations with sector-wide reforms
through complementary activities
► Transport components managed by other sectors should be
integrated into transport sector plans and strategies
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19. 2: Improve Long-Run Financial Viability
► Engage policy makers for maintenance funding at high level
► Critically assess the viability of investments especially for
railways
► Support to urban transport should include financial analysis of
overall system and pay attention to affordability concerns.
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20. 3: Strengthen Institutional Capability
► Mainstream proven accountability and incentive
frameworks
► Encourage continuous and sequential engagement and
support government-led reforms
► Support governments to put in place a process for
systematically monitoring and evaluating sustained
transport outcomes
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21. Thank You for Your Attention
The complete evaluation is available on IEG’s website:
http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/publications
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