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IAQM AGM 2015 - Nick Molden - Insights from Real World Emissions Testing in context of Defra Consultation
1. Insights from real-world emissions testing
in context of DEFRA consultation
Nick Molden
12 November 2015
2. 2
โข Founded in 2011
โข Headquartered in Winchester, with operations in London and Los Angeles
โข 10 employees, currently expanding in EU
โข Specialist in PEMS testing and data analysis
โข 1000 vehicles tested
โข Expert in high-efficiency real-world data collection
โข RDE-compatible testing conducted since 2011
โข Works with OEMs, Tier 1 suppliers, fuel and chemical companies, regulators, consultancies,
consumer media
Emissions Analyticsโ credentials
3. 3
Benefits of PEMS
โข Real on-road testing using PEMS is a powerful research
method
โข Authentic and cost effective
โข Works on all vehicle types
โข No permanent vehicle modification required
โข Flexible location
โข High rate of data acquisition โ 1 Hertz
โข Precision approaching laboratory levels
4. 4
Equipment
โข SEMTECH-DS and Ecostar-FEM
โข Portable Emissions Measurement System
connects to tailpipe
โข Captures emissions for CO2, CO, NO, NO2,
total hydrocarbons
โข At 1 Hertz
โข Air temperature, pressure, humidity
โข GPS for speed and altitude
โข Engine data via CANBUS
โข Fuel economy derived via carbon balance
โข Weight addition 100-250 pounds
7. 7
โข Euro 5 and 6 diesels
โข Rolling 12-month
average of exceedance
factor
โข Step-change
improvement from Q2
2014
โข But recent trend less
clear
โข 5 have met standard
โข Spikes due to 4x4s
NOx latest trends (1)
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5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
02-11-11
02-01-12
02-03-12
02-05-12
02-07-12
02-09-12
02-11-12
02-01-13
02-03-13
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02-07-13
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02-05-14
02-07-14
02-09-14
02-11-14
02-01-15
02-03-15
02-05-15
ExceedanceFactor
8. 8
โข Real-world reductions
more impressive
โข Many now meeting
Euro 5 standard
โข Tightening regulations
reducing divergence in
results
โข Although still
occasional outliers
NOx latest trends (2)
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
Real-worldNOx(g/km)
9. 9
โข Gasoline considered
not to have NOx
problem
โข 21% of vehicles exceed
limit
โข Slightly upwards trend
โข Large engines and
larger vehicles account
for most vehicles
exceeding limit
NOx latest trends (3)
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0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
02-11-11
02-12-11
02-01-12
02-02-12
02-03-12
02-04-12
02-05-12
02-06-12
02-07-12
02-08-12
02-09-12
02-10-12
02-11-12
02-12-12
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02-02-13
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02-05-13
02-06-13
02-07-13
02-08-13
02-09-13
02-10-13
Real-worldNOx(g/km)
10. 10
โข Not regulated
โข But important for road-
side pollution
โข Latest results suggest
NO2 levels meet total
NOx regulated level on
average
โข Very low fNO2 is possible
with certain after-
treatment systems
NO2 latest trends
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0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
02-11-11
02-01-12
02-03-12
02-05-12
02-07-12
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02-11-12
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02-05-13
02-07-13
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02-05-14
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02-03-15
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Real-worldNOx(g/km)
11. 11
โข From Emissions Analyticsโ database, at OEM level
โข Based on 410 tests
โข Diesel Euro 6 emissions falling โ down from 5.1 conformity factor in Q1
NOx key statistics
Diesel Euro 5 Diesel Euro 6 Gasoline Euro 5/6
Real-world NOx (g/km) 0.773 0.299 0.049
Average Conformity Factor 4.3 3.7 0.8
fNO2 โ minimum % 27 17 0
fNO2 โ mean % 44 48 24
fNO2 โ maximum % 66 80 72
fNO2 % โ standard deviation 14.5 19.4 27.7
12. 12
Cold start and DPF regeneration
โข Define cold start event
โข Continuous event from coolant temperature low point up to full operation temperature
โข Compare to similar cycle wholly at full operating temperature (1.0 = no uplift)
โข 18% larger uplift for Euro 6 diesels than Euro 5s
โข Gasoline has much higher uplift but on a low base
โข Compare DPF regeneration to repeat immediately afterwards
โข 37% average increase in NOx emissions during event
โข NO2 significantly lower during event โ 70% down on average
Diesel Euro 5 Diesel Euro 6 Gasoline Euro 5/6
Cold start uplift ratio 1.4 1.6 3.0
DPF regeneration uplift ratio 1.4 n/a n/a
13. 13
Prospects for Real Driving Emissions
โข How effective will the new NOx regulations be? An improvement, but not that strict
โข 80 mg/km NOx limit for diesels, compared to 31 mg/km in the US
โข Add 2.1 conformity factor (1.5 from 2020/1)
โข Add effect of boundary conditions, transfer function
โข Add delay for all new models until 2019
โข Add speed of propagation of new models through car parc
โข Effect is a limit in real-world driving of 168+ mg/km
โข But manufacturers will have to target a lower level due to measurement variability
โข Estimated at ~30% by Joint Research Centre
โข So effective target of 129+ mg/km
โข x1.6 the diesel limit; x2.9 real-world gasoline
14. 14
โข Proposed real-world
limits marked with
dotted lines
โข 29% of Euro 6 diesels
tested already meet
2017/19 limit
โข Some after-treatment
systems proven to be
effective in real-world
โข Net effect of regulation
not as strict as required?
Regulated levels
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Sep-2011
Apr-2012
Oct-2012
May-2013
Nov-2013
Jun-2014
Dec-2014
Jul-2015
NOx(g/km)
Test date
Euro 5
Euro 6
Euro 5
2020/21
Euro 6
2017/19
16. 16
โข Gap between official and
real-world fuel economy
due to limitations of
official cycle
โข Was growing by ~2%
points per year
โข Latest data suggests
slowing of gap growth
โข But also falls on absolute
fuel economy
โข Due to effect of Euro 6?
โข Creating a CO2 problem?
A growing gap?
-24.0%
-22.0%
-20.0%
-18.0%
-16.0%
-14.0%
-12.0%
-10.0%
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
2012 2013 2014 2015
VarianceofTrueMPGtoofficialcombined
Combinedfueleconomy
Model Year