Launch of IFPRI’s 2012 Global Food Policy Report with Shenggen Fan, Director General of IFPRI; Mary Bohman, Administrator of the Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture; Michael Elliott, President and CEO of ONE; Andrew Steer, President and CEO of World Resources Institute. IFPRI, 14 March 2013

1. 1
Shenggen Fan
Director General
Washington, DC | March 14, 2013
LOREM IPSUM DOLOREM

2. Highlights
Food Policy in 2012 Agricultural Green Economy Women in
Productivity Agriculture
Employment in US and EU Farm Regional Looking Ahead
Agriculture Policies Developments
Food Policy Indicators: Tracking Change

3. The global food system remained fragile
Old and new FAO estimates of undernourished people worldwide,
1990-2010
 New numbers,
same problem
 Drought and
volatile food prices
United States, Eastern
Europe, Central Asia, Southern
Africa, Sahel
 Conflict
DRC, Mali, Somalia, Syria
 Long-term drivers of
global food system

5. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
A Changing Global Harvest
 Agricultural productivity growth has accelerated substantially
 Location and composition of production have changed
(more in developing countries; more high-value crops)
 Sources of production growth and regional contributions
are different (sustained high growth in Brazil and China; low growth in Africa)
For long-term productivity growth Sources of growth in global agricultural production
 Develop national capacities
in agricultural R&D
 Provide better genetic materials
and inputs
 Create enabling environment
for rapid technology adoption

6. GREEN ECONOMY
Sustainable and Growing, Food Secure?
 Rio+20 conference introduced several new initiatives
(e.g. Green Economy, Zero Hunger Challenge, Zero Net Land and Forest Degradation)
 Bioeconomy also gained ground
 Rio+20 lacked firm policy roadmap and timeframe
What is needed? Rio+20: Towards a “green economy”
 Clear measures, timeframes,
and accountability mechanisms
 Incentives and information for
civil society and private sector

7. WOMEN IN AGRICULTURE
Closing the Gender Gap
 Role of gender equality in agriculture gained growing attention
(FAO’s State of Food and Agriculture and World Bank’s World Development Report)
 Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index was created
(IFPRI, USAID, and Oxford Poverty and Human Development)
 Development programming moving
from gender-blind to gender-aware programs
More needs to be done to
 Build evidence base
 Strengthen women’s assets
 Engage with women’s groups
as real development partners

8. EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTURE
Jobs for Africa’s Youth
 Africa south of the Sahara has the fastest growing population
and the youngest (additional 150 million people in rural areas from 2010-50)
 Engagement of Africa’s youth in agriculture is crucial
to gain “youth dividend”
To realize agriculture’s potential Rural population share and number of people entering rural
and urban labor markets in Africa south of the Sahara, 1950–2050
 Constraints to
land, capital, and skills must be
eased
 Programs must be friendly
to needs of the youth
 Clear vision and political
commitment is needed

9. US AND EU FARM POLICIES
The Subsidy Habit
 Farm subsidies in the US and EU persist, the debate continues
 Not much was done to expand productivity-increasing public
agricultural research
What must be done? Composition of EU agricultural budget, annual expenditures, 1990-2010
 Revisit farm policies
 Promote non-distorting
trade policies
 Engage in WTO
trade negotiations

10. REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
Policy Choices on the Ground
Africa Arab World
 Agricultural transformation accelerated  Long-term policies and investments
was initiated by several countries
 Lack of capacity to cope with
increased shocks and conflict  Food security remains a key challenge
East Asia Latin America and the Caribbean
 China released plan for large  Increased role of the region in
agricultural R&D investment food supply
 Myanmar took steps to reform the  Public agricultural R&D declined in
agricultural sector smaller, poorer countries
 Thailand implemented scheme which led  Continued divide in land holdings
to uncompetitive rice prices
South Asia
 Bangladesh planned a path for food security
 India embraced FDI in the retail sector
 Nepal proposed to increase fertilizer subsidies

11. LOOKING AHEAD
Scenarios for the Future of Food
Difference in population at risk of hunger (%), compared with baseline, 2050
HIGHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY HIGHER ENERGY PRICES
0 20
15
10
-10
5
0
-20 E. Asia & Europe & LAC MENA S. Asia SSA World
Pacific C. Asia
LOWER MEAT DEMAND
0
-30 -2
-4
-6
-8
-40 -10
E. Asia & Europe & LAC MENA S. Asia SSA World S. Asia S.E. Asia Asia SSA LAC World
Pacific C. Asia
Lower meat demand in high-income countries
Lower meat demand in high-income countries + Brazil and China

12. FOOD POLICY INDICATORS
Tracking Change
1 Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators
2 Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development
3 Global Hunger Index
4 Food Policy Research Capacity Indicators
5 Total and Partial Factor Productivity

13. OUTLOOK FOR 2013
Walk the Talk!
 Build resilience of global and national food systems and the poor
 Give attention to dry areas
 Further advance the nexus approach
(agriculture, nutrition, health & food, water, land, energy)
 Fulfill L’Aquila commitments, build national capacities,
and support implementation of country-led processes
 Ensure post-2015 development agenda focuses on poor people
while pursuing sustainable development goals