2nd Annual Malthus Lecture "Feeding the World Sustainably: Reflections, Issues, and Suggestions" given by Dr. Ismail Serageldin at IFPRI on 14 July 2011. Co-hosted by IFPRI and PRB (Population Reference Bureau). Sponsored by Montague Yudelman.

1. Feeding the World Sustainably: Reflections, Issues, and Suggestions Ismail Serageldin 2nd Malthus Lecture IFPRI – Washington, DC 14 July 2011

2. Outline Challenging Malthus On Hunger On Hunger And Poverty Food Security The Gender Dimension The Environmental Dimension The Role Of science The Power Of Policy Transforming Global Agriculture Envoi

3. Challenging Malthus

4. Challenging Malthus Malthus was wrong He could never have imagined a world with 6.7 billion people Human ingenuity was able to provide more food out of the same resources Hunger and famine persist for other reasons

6. In USA Today: 20 % Of Children and 65% Of Adults Are Obese

9. The Abolitionists William Wilberforce d. 1833

10. Abolishing Slavery Abraham Lincoln Frederick Douglas

14. We Must Abolish Hunger!

15. We must becomeThe New Abolitionists!

16. So far, we could abolish hunger…But… Things can change…

17. World Population, in Billions 1950-2050 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.

18. Malthus Strikes Back! Malthus was wrong up to now What about a world of 10 Billion, with richer diets and increasing animal proteins? What about our energy policies and climate change?

19. On Hunger

20. We take abundant food for granted

21. BUTAbout One Billion persons are chronically malnourished!

22. http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/es/Hunger_Portal/Hunger_Map_2010b.pdf

23. Sub-Saharan Africa Remains most vulnerable region

24. After prolonged drought, Again, Today, Famine Stalks Millions in East Africa(Source: The Economist July 9, 2011, p.35

25. Humanitarian Food Aid will continue to be needed in hotspots and must be provided for

26. Trends in world hunger, 2010

27. Global Hunger Index, 2010 Three equally weighted indicators constitute the GHI: Undernourishedas % of the population (reflecting the share of the population with insufficient dietary energy intake) Underweight as % of Children < 5 years old (indicating the proportion of children suffering from low weight for their age) Mortality rate of Children < 5 years old(partially reflecting the fatal synergy between inadequate dietary intake and unhealthy environments)

28. Global Hunger Index, 2010 > 5.0 Low hunger 5.0 - 9.9 Moderate hunger 10.0 - 19.9 Serious 20.0 - 29.9 Alarming ≥ 30.0 Extremely alarming The index ranks countries on a 100-point scale, with 0 being the best score (no hunger) and 100 being the worst, although neither of these extremes is reached in practice.

29. GNP per Capita and Global Hunger Index, 2010 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 45  Comoros   Madagascar Central African Rep. Congo, Dem. Rep. 40   Niger  Burundi  Zambia Eritrea 35 Eritrea    Mozambique Ethiopia  Rwanda Guinea-Bissau     Chad 30  Togo  Sierra Leone     Burkina Faso  Angola  Tanzania 25    2010 GHI Kenya   Djibouti   Mali    20  Malawi   Gambia  Nigeria   Cameroon       Guinea   Congo, Rep. Benin  15  Senegal   Namibia   Botswana   Mauritania Lesotho Uganda  South Africa Swaziland  10  Cote d’Ivoire Ghana Mauritius    Gabon 5 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 GNP per Capita, 2005-07

30. GNP per Capita and Global Hunger Index, 2010 MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA 45 40 35 30  Yemen 25 2010 GHI 20 15 10 Morocco Iran, Islamic Republic  5  Egypt Syrian Arab. Rep.   Libya  Algeria   Saudi Arabia     Jordan Tunisia Lebanon Turkey 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 GNP per Capita, 2005-07

31. Global Hunger Index, 2010

33. 33

37. Kevin Carter’s Pulitzer Prize winning photo 1994

38. Kevin Carter(1960 - 1994)

39. On Hunger And Poverty

40. The Primary Cause Of Hunger Is Extreme Poverty

41. AmartyaSenon Famines

42. Norman Borlaug (1914 – 2009)

43. Food whether you buy it or grow it yourself

44. Observation: Many rural poor continue to pay for their food needs Sellers Self-Sufficient Buyers Source: cited in http://www.ifad.org/rural/rpr2010/background/9.pdf

45. So we have to reduce the price f food, by increasing production sustainably, reducing waste, and ensuring access

46. What about the poor small-holder farmers who are major producers of food? They will become even poorer…

47. Raise productivity for small-holder farmers faster than the prices drop Rice production Rice price Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.10June2003 Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 2002 data update) Source: World Bank Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets Trends in world rice production and price adjusted for inflation, 1961-2002

48. Raiseproductivity of small-holderfarmersfasterthan the price of food drops Rice production Rice price Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.10June2003 Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 2002 data update) Source: World Bank Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets World rice production and pricesadjusted for inflation, 1961-2002

49. Food security is to ensure for each individual, at all times, access to the food they need in enough quantity and quality, produced in a sustainable manner.

50. An Enormous Gap Exists Between the Rich and the Poor…

51. 51

53. Rich and Poor in Sao Paulosource: http://mindblog.dericbownds.net/2007/10/rich-and-poor.html

54. It is not just the absence of income that defines poverty

55. It is marginalization, deprivation and social exclusion

56. Loss of dignity

57. Social Exclusion

58. Rural and Urban Poverty in Developing Countries Rural poor 70.0% Urban poor 30.0% Source: IFPRI estimate from World Bank data.

59. The Ultra Poor require special help

62. Much Economic Analysis Erases the Human Factor

64. Thoughtful use of multiple indicators for analysis will lead to richer and more nuanced policy and program design

65. MPAT:Multidimensional Poverty Assessment Tool (Developed by IFAD)

66. MPAT 1 Food & Nutrition 1.1Security Consumption 1.2 Access stability 1.3 Nutrition quality 10 Gender & Social Equality 10.1 Access to education 10.2 Access to healthcare 10.3 Social equality 2. Domestic Water Supply 2.1 Quality 2.2 Availability 2.3 Access 9 Exposure & Resilience to Shocks 9.1 Exposure 9.2 Coping ability 9.3 Recovery ability 3. Health & Healthcare 3.1 Health status 3.2 Access & affordability 3.3 Healthcare quality MPAT 8 Non-Farm Assets 8.1 Employment & skills 8.2 Financial services 8.3 Fixed assets & remittances 4. Sanitation & Hygiene 4.1Toilet facility 4.2Waste management 4.3 Hygiene practices 7 Farm Assets 7.1 Land tenure 7.2 Land quality 7.3 Crop inputs 7.4 Livestock/aquaculture 5 Housing, Clothing & Energy 5.1 Housing structure quality 5.2 Clothing 5.3 Energy sources 6 Education 6.1 Quality 6.2 Availability 6.3 Access Organizational diagram of MPAT's components and subcomponents

67. Urban poverty

72. Reaching the Poorest Garbage pickers in the Philippines

73. Urban Poverty

74. Three Key strategies to cope with Urban Poverty and Hunger Reduce the price of food Increase the opportunities for employment of the poor Increase the returns to the kind of skills and assets that the poor have

75. The Urban Poor mostly buy their food

76. And food is a major part of their budget – Hence their wellbeing is very sensitive to the price of food

77. Three Key strategies to cope with Urban Poverty and Hunger Reduce the price of food Increase the opportunities for employment of the poor Increase the returns to the kind of skills and assets that the poor have

78. The poor lack the skills for the high Tech jobs the market offers, and are unlikely to get these skills quickly

80. Three Key strategies to cope with Urban Poverty and Hunger Reduce the price of food Increase the opportunities for employment of the poor Increase the returns to the kind of skills and assets that the poor have

82. Three Key strategies to cope with Urban Poverty and Hunger Reduce the price of food Increase the opportunities for employment of the poor Increase the returns to the kind of skills and assets that the poor have

83. Urban Agriculture on roofs and between buildings on vacant land

84. On Hunger And Rural Poverty

87. Reform Policies And Markets Remove urban bias Roads Education Health Etc. Improve access to markets Reduce post harvest losses

89. Challenges Facing Small Farms Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries. Low world market prices for agriculture. Climate change. HIV/AIDS Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller. No political voice.

90. Challenges Facing Small Farms Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries. Low world market prices for agriculture. Climate change. HIV/AIDS Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller. No political voice.

91. Challenges Facing Small Farms Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries. Low world market prices for agriculture. Climate change. HIV/AIDS Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller. No political voice.

92. Challenges Facing Small Farms Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries. Low world market prices for agriculture. Climate change. HIV/AIDS Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller. No political voice.

94. Challenges Facing Small Farms Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries. Low world market prices for agriculture. Climate change. HIV/AIDS Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller. No political voice.

95. Challenges Facing Small Farms Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries. Low world market prices for agriculture. Climate change. HIV/AIDS Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller. No political voice.

96. Challenges Facing Small Farms Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries. Low world market prices for agriculture. Climate change. HIV/AIDS Continuing population growth that is making small farms smaller. No political voice.

97. Food Security

98. Food security is to ensure for each individual, at all times, access to the food they need in enough quantity and quality, produced in a sustainable manner.

99. Food Security Not Just production, also access Not Just output, also process Not Just technology, also policy Not Just global, also national Not Just national, also household Not Just rural, also urban Not Just amount, also content

100. Food Security Not Just production, also access Not Just output, also process Not Just technology, also policy Not Just global, also national Not Just national, also household Not Just rural, also urban Not Just amount, also content

101. Food Security Not Just production, also access Not Just output, also process Not Just technology, also policy Not Just global, also national Not Just national, also household Not Just rural, also urban Not Just amount, also content

102. Food Security Not Just production, also access Not Just output, also process Not Just technology, also policy Not Just global, also national Not Just national, also household Not Just rural, also urban Not Just amount, also content

103. Food Security Not Just production, also access Not Just output, also process Not Just technology, also policy Not Just global, also national Not Just national, also household Not Just rural, also urban Not Just amount, also content

104. Food Security Not Just production, also access Not Just output, also process Not Just technology, also policy Not Just global, also national Not Just national, also household Not Just rural, also urban Not Just amount, also content

105. Food Security Not Just production, also access Not Just output, also process Not Just technology, also policy Not Just global, also national Not Just national, also household Not Just rural, also urban Not Just amount, also content

106. Food Security Not Just production, also access Not Just output, also process Not Just technology, also policy Not Just global, also national Not Just national, also household Not Just rural, also urban Not Just amount, also content

107. Understanding Food Security

108. Understanding Food Security

109. Global Food ProductionMust Grow by+40% by 2030&+70% by 2050 Opening statement by IFAD President at the Jeddah Economic Forum 2010: “The Global Economy in 2020” http://www.ifad.org/events/op/2010/jeddah.htm

110. Food Security and Production Production is a necessary but not sufficient condition for food security Focusing on the small-holder farmer in developing countries is key to environmental protection, poverty reduction and food security

111. “We are all on this earth as guests of the green plants and those who tend them.”-- M.S. Swaminathan

115. The response is to produce differently, not less

118. Seven Statements About Food Security

119. Food Security: Seven Statements Increase production and productivity Better management Reduce losses, reduce waste Manage vulnerability (CC) BioFortification BioFuels International Trade

120. Food Security: Seven Statements Increase production and productivity Better management Reduce losses, reduce waste Manage vulnerability (CC) BioFortification BioFuels International Trade

121. How to reduce prices without harming the poor farmers who produce food?

122. Raiseproductivity of small-holderfarmersfasterthan the price of food drops Rice production Rice price Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.10June2003 Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 2002 data update) Source: World Bank Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets World rice production and pricesadjusted for inflation, 1961-2002

123. Food Security: Seven Statements Increase production and productivity Better management Reduce losses, reduce waste Manage vulnerability (CC) BioFortification BioFuels International Trade

124. SRI has increased output dramatically, with the same inputs

125. Food Security: Seven Statements Increase production and productivity Better management Reduce losses, reduce waste Manage vulnerability (CC) BioFortification BioFuels International Trade

126. In the poor countries, post-harvest losses reach up to 30% of the crops

127. Reduce Post-Harvest Losses

128. Storage and post-harvest losses

129. In the rich countries: Up to 30% of cooked food is thrown out

130. Up to 20% of purchased food is thrown out unused, in its wrapper

133. X

134. Food Security: Seven Statements Increase production and productivity Better management Reduce losses, reduce waste Manage vulnerability (CC) BioFortification BioFuels International Trade

135. Homeless, nameless…

137. Address Short-term Vulnerability Most farmers live precariously Downside is devastating Climate change is increasing vulnerability

139. Climate Variability (Change?)Index of Rainfall in Sahel 1941-1990 Source: Departure from standard deviation; Climate Prediction Center 1991, Prrsentation by South Africa at Camdessus Panel meetings

140. Climate Variability (Change?)Index of Rainfall in Sahel 1941-1990 Source: Departure from standard deviation; Climate Prediction Center 1991, Prrsentation by South Africa at Camdessus Panel meetings

141. Extension Must bring Research To These Farmers

142. Food Security: Seven Statements Increase production and productivity Better management Reduce losses, reduce waste Manage vulnerability (CC) BioFortification BioFuels International Trade

143. Better Nutrition

144. White and Golden Rice

145. Food Security: Seven Statements Increase production and productivity Better management Reduce losses, reduce waste Manage vulnerability (CC) BioFortification BioFuels International Trade

146. In addition to the first generation of biofuels (Ethanol from Corn)

147. Ethanol from Corn contributes to 2008 food price spike

148. It is wrong to burn the food of the poor to drive the cars of the rich!

149. We must move to second generation biofuels

150. Food Security: Seven Statements Increase production and productivity Better management Reduce losses, reduce waste Manage vulnerability (CC) BioFortification BioFuels International Trade

153. US Ag Subsidies 1994-2005

154. Cows Vs. People A typical cow in the European Union receives a government subsidy of $2.20 a day – more than what 2.5 billion of the world's poorest people live on every day. Twice what 1.2 billion of the world's poorest people live on every day.

155. $2.20 / day $0.90 / day

157. Food Security: Seven Statements Increase production and productivity Better management Reduce losses, reduce waste Manage vulnerability (CC) BioFortification BioFuels International Trade

158. The Gender Dimension

159. And We Must Never Forget the Gender Dimension…

160. Women In Africa Produce 80% of the food Receive 10% of the wages Own 1% of the land

161. Women Empowerment Essential to recognize the gender dimension of agriculture Empowering Women results in major improvements in infant mortality, school enrolments, child morbidity

162. Women Empowerment Women have unequal opportunity in: Education Health care Income Credit Employment Assets Decision-making

164. The key vector to fight infant mortality and child malnutrition is Maternal Health

165. From the sixth month of pregnancy…

166. …To the 18th month of life…

167. The period when children are most vulnerable to hunger

168. Malnurished mothers give birth to low birth weight babiesandMalnourished children often suffer from growth retardation and weight loss

169. Breast Milk has the Best Nutritional Value

170. A Healthy Mother… Gives birth to a baby of normal weight. Breast feed her baby well. Will be able to find good food to wean her baby.

171. The Environmental Dimension

172. Climate Change The Most serious Issue Facing Humanity

174. Hurricane Bonnie

175. Source: National Geographic, August, 2005

176. Source: National Geographic, August, 2005

177. Can this be just a “natural phenomenon”? NO!

178. GHG emissions are a key contributor

180. Should we be concerned? YES!

182. Source: The Economist – The World in 2007

183. How serious is the problem? VERY!

185. The Nile:Reaches Cairo with 12 million Tons of saltsReaches the sea with 34 million tons of salts

186. Impact on Nile Delta

188. But Also increased Floods, Droughts, Forest Fires and Desertification

189. Climate Change and Food Security:Changes in Length of growing period 2000-2005 Thronton, et.al., cited in Greg Mock and Paul Steele, “Power to the poor: tapping the wealth of ecosystems”, in Environment, vol 48: 1; Jan/Feb 2006, p. 15

190. We need urgent action on bothMitigation&Adaptation

191. Mitigation: Reducing Emissions

192. How will all that affect HUNGER?

193. We observe… Floods in Pakistan Droughts in Russia Hurricanes hitting the Caribbean and the USA

195. We observe… Floods in Pakistan Droughts in Russia Hurricanes hitting the Caribbean and the USA

197. Droughts and Floods?

198. Yes, The Models predict that Both will co-exist

199. We observe… Floods in Pakistan Droughts in Russia Hurricanes hitting the Caribbean and the USA

200. Hurricanes and floods in USA

201. All these intemperate weather conditions lead to stresses on food production

202. The Food on which we all depend

203. Drought Devastates Agriculture

204. That leads to More Hunger

205. Above all, Science must be mobilized

206. The Role Of Science

207. From the Green Revolution to the Doubly Green Revolution

209. AREA SAVED India -- All Cereals,1960-1990 Millions of Hectares 250 200 150 AREA SAVED 100 AREA USED 50 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Total production: 1961: 87million tons -- 1990 :197 million tons

214. Doubly green revolution More genetically diverse crops Less chemical inputs (IPM and other means) Integrated soil, water and nutrient management Small holder farming system context, environmentally and socio-economically

219. Recognize The Gender Dimension

220. Promoting Alternatives to Slash and Burn

221. AlwaysPro-Poor Pro-Women Pro-Environment

222. A Double Shift in the Research Paradigm: -- Contextualization-- The new life sciences

223. The Role Of Science Land Water Plants Animals The Role Of Aquatic Resources

224. The Role Of Science Land Water Plants Animals The Role Of Aquatic Resources

225. Land Use Transitions Source: J.A. Foley, et.al., Global Consequences of Land Use, in Science, 22 July 2005, v.309, pp.570-574

227. The Role Of Science Land Water Plants Animals The Role Of Aquatic Resources

228. Water Is Also a Constraint

230. One Calorie = One Liter

236. More Crop Per Drop!

237. The Role Of Science Land Water Plants Animals The Role Of Aquatic Resources

238. Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production Yield (t/ha) Ceiling Current Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005

239. Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production Yield (t/ha) Ceiling Current A Raise the Yield Ceiling Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005

240. Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production Yield (t/ha) Ceiling Current A Raise the Yield Ceiling Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005

241. Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production Yield (t/ha) Ceiling Current A B Raise the Yield Ceiling Close the Yield Gap Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005

242. Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production Yield (t/ha) Ceiling Current A B Raise the Yield Ceiling Close the Yield Gap Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005

243. Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production Yield (t/ha) Ceiling Current A B C Raise the Yield Ceiling Close the Yield Gap Sustain the Current Yield Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005

244. Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production Yield (t/ha) Ceiling Current A B C Raise the Yield Ceiling Close the Yield Gap Sustain the Current Yield Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005

245. Let’s take them by turn

246. Technologies for Increasing the Yield Potential

247. Different Plant Types of Rice Conventional Improved NPT

248. New Plant Type Rice

249. Technologies for Closing the Yield Gap

250. Biological cost of weeds, Diseases and Insects

251. Biological Control

252. IPM: Working With Nature Bio-control Pheromone trap Need-based chemicals Host-plant resistance Etc.

253. Reaction to Bacterial BlightResistant Susceptible

254. Stem-Borer Larvae from Transgenic Rice (top) and Control (bottom)

255. 4. Raise Agricultural Productivity Productivity must rise faster than price declines to generate surpluses for the small-holder farmers and reduce their poverty as their cheaper products help reduce the poverty in the cities Measure in terms of Total Factor Productivity (land, water, labor, energy and chemical inputs)

256. Technologies Needed For: increasing the yield potential closing the yield gap, including pest management Soil, water & nutrient management Labor & capital input management developing nutritious crops (more later)

257. The Role Of Science Land Water Plants Animals The Role Of Aquatic Resources

260. Increasing demand for feed

261. A Huge Increase In Feed Requirements

262. Not Just for Food

263. Conversion Into Proteins(% of Feed that is converted to Protein) 25% 13% 5% Beef Pork Poultry Fish Source: Time magazine, 18 July 2011, p. 29

264. Conversion Into Proteins(% of Feed that is converted to Protein) 30% 25% 13% 5% Beef Pork Poultry Fish Source: Time magazine, 18 July 2011, p. 29

265. The Role Of Science Land Water Plants Animals The Role Of Aquatic Resources

266. Source: William S. Alevizon, Pisces Guide to Caribbean Reef Ecology, Gulf Publishing Company (1994).

269. Global Seafood consumption has increased dramatically, and natural fish stocks are heavily overfished

270. Global Aquaculture Production:1950 = one million tons2008 = 47.3 million tons

271. But Aquaculture is still only about 50% of consumption in 2011

272. Our Reefs Today:The Challenge and the Response

273. The Role Of Science Land Water Plants Animals The Role Of Aquatic Resources

274. The Role Of Science But What about Biotechnology ?

275. Biotechnology Promise and perils Partnerships for benign applications Public-private CGIAR-NARS-AROs-NGOs

278. Global Area of Biotech Crops.Million of Hectares (1996 to 2009) 200  180   Trait Hectares 160  Total Hectares  140   Industrials   Developing 120     100   80          60                40        20          0  1996 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 14 million farmers in 25 countries planted 134 million hectares (330 million acres in 2009, a sustained increase of 7% or 9 million hectares (22 million acres) compared to 2008. Source: Clive James, 2009.

280. Modern biotechnology Raises profound issues Despite controversy, has enormous promise Can do things we cannot do by conventional breeding – e.g. Vitamin A rice

281. It is a tool, like any other.It should not be demonized nor assumed to be a miracle.

282. The Power Of Policy

283. Policy Counts

284. Sustainable development does not mean that people will live worse…

285. Let’s look at income and health

286. Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1987 1980 1970 1961 1950 Life Expectancy (Thousands) Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)

287. Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1987 1980 1970 1961 1950 Life Expectancy (Thousands) Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)

288. Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1987 1980 1970 1961 1950 Life Expectancy (Thousands) Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)

289. Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1987 1980 1970 1961 1950 Life Expectancy (Thousands) Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)

290. 8X!!! That is to say that well conceived, well targeted policies can be the equivalent of a general increase in average incomes by 8X with laissez-faire

291. Transforming Global Agriculture

292. Agriculture Is A Complex FieldSummary for Decision Makers of the Global Report, IAASTD, 2009 Source: http://www.agassessment.org/docs/IAASTD_GLOBAL_SDM_JAN_2008.pdf

293. Managing Agriculture is a complex task:Summary for Decision Makers of the Global Report, IAASTD, 2009

294. Ten Commandments For Global Agriculture

295. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action

296. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action

297. 1. Reform Policies And Markets Globally: Fair trade Locally: Remove urban bias Improve access to markets reduce post harvest losses

299. 1. Reform Policies And Markets Globally: Fair trade Locally: Remove urban bias (educ., health, etc.) Improve access to markets reduce post harvest losses

300. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action

301. So, dealing with global poverty requires that we address rural poverty…ANDA special focus on small-holder farmers in developing countries in particular to address the problem of food security

302. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action

303. 3. Husband Natural Resources Agriculture is the major interface between people and nature Sustainable development is beneficial for all Resource degradation hits the poor worst

304. The Most Important Environmental Action Is to Reduce the Need for More Land Under Cultivation

305. It will preserve habitats and biodiversity

307. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action

308. 4. Raise Agricultural Productivity Productivity must rise faster than price declines to generate surpluses for the small-holder farmers and reduce their poverty as their cheaper products help reduce the poverty in the cities Measure in terms of Total Factor Productivity (land, water, labor, energy and chemical inputs)

309. Raiseproductivity of small-holderfarmersfasterthan the price of food drops Rice production Rice price Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.10June2003 Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 2002 data update) Source: World Bank Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets World rice production and pricesadjusted for inflation, 1961-2002

310. Less Water Less Land Less Labor Less Chemicals Increasing Population Future Challenges To Produce More Food

311. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action

312. 5. Improve Nutritional Content Enormous health benefits Bio-fortification is just the beginning Edible vaccines?

313. Sweet Potatoes with and Without Beta-Carotene With Without

315. Longer, More Productive Lives

316. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action

317. 6. Address Short-term Vulnerability Most farmers live precariously Downside is devastating Climate change is increasing vulnerability

320. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action

321. 7. Empower Women Essential to recognize the gender dimension of agriculture Empowering Women results in major improvements in infant mortality, school enrolments, child morbidity

325. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action

326. 8. Reach Out To The Ultra-Poor Market incentives do not work for the ultra-poor Trickle-down does not work Special Programs will be needed

329. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action

330. 9. Support Science We need more support for science in developing countries Not just technology

331. 331

332. 332

333. The Divide in S&T Capacity

336. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action

337. Rhetoric Declarations Plans Targets Action

338. “We have the capacity to eliminate hunger from the face of the earth in our lifetime. We need only the will.” President John F. Kennedy World Food Congress 1963

340. The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture Reform Policies And Markets Focus On Small-holder Farmers Husband Natural Resources Raise Agricultural Productivity Improve Nutritional Content Address Short-term Vulnerability Empower Women Reach Out To The Ultra-poor Support Science Translate Rhetoric Into Action

341. Envoi

342. All the Parts Are Essential:They Reinforce Each Other

343. The Whole Is More Than the Sum of the Parts

344. Diagnosis How to find the key pressure points in the system How to choose interventions that will have maximum impact on these Must focus on raising productivity in the complex ecosystem of the small holder farm Must bring science and other inputs to the farmers

345. No policy or program willeverbesufficientaloneWeneed a range of interventions… Many existing policies need to be adjusted and many new programs need to be developed.

346. Several policies and programs need to be developed for: Agriculture Environment Social Issues Political Issues Participation Gender Urbanization Poverty Infrastructure Economy Trade Marketing Public/Private Interface Finance and credit Local, National, Régional and International Issues And more …

349. It can be Mastered and Solved

351. Dare to dream!Dare to be bold!

352. The specter of Malthus still haunts the world…

353. We can abolish Hunger

354. Our groupThe New Abolitionists Limited size, limited resources

355. The Oppositioncynics, entrenched interests & the inertia of current injustice Large size, unlimited resources

356. But we will surprise the World!

357. Thank You

359. The images used in this presentation are strictly for the educational purpose of this lecture. Any use by anyone for any other purpose should be after consulting the copyright owners of these pictures