This document outlines the structure and content of a project analyzing countries' WTO domestic support notifications. It will include: 1) Country chapters replicating official notifications and constructing consistent "shadow notifications" for comparison. 2) An introduction discussing URAA domestic support rules, projecting future notifications, and key analysis issues. 3) Appendices with the full URAA and Falconer texts. Key topics to be analyzed across countries include measurement of support levels, policy categorization, relations to other estimates, border protections, box shifting, special treatment, and economic assessments of disputes. The goal is a cohesive manuscript analyzing notification compliance and identifying anticipated notification issues.

1. IFPRI
An Overview of WTO Domestic
Support Notifications
David Orden
Presented at the Workshop:
Improving WTO Transparency: Shadow Domestic
Support Notifications
IFPRI, March 14-15, 2008
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

2. Outline of the Draft Introductory Chapter
1. Project/Country Chapters Design
2. URAA Domestic Support Rules
3. Projecting Future Notifications
4. Anticipated Issues in Analysis and Interpretation
5. Synopsis of Key Results and Conclusions (to be
added/supplant other material after country
chapters completed)
6. Appendices—The Full URAA and Falconer (2008)
Texts
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3. Country Chapter Design
1. Synopsis of policies and recent studies
2. Replication of official WTO support notifications
3. Construction of consistent shadow notifications
4. Comparison and discussion of shadow notifications
in relation to the WTO rules
5. Discussion of relevant alternative support-definition
scenarios
6. Projected notifications through 2013
7. Summary and Conclusions
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4. URAA Rules
Three tightly defined categories exempt from caps:
Article 6.2 (Special and Differential Treatment)
Article 6.5 (Blue Box)
Annex 2 (Green Box)
Polices placed in these categories must conform fully to the
criteria which are articulated
Residual category subject to cap:
Total AMS, with exemptions below de minimis amounts
Guidelines, but not comprehensive description, of what goes in
this category and how it is measured
Our analyses will delve into legal and economic issues
related to the policies of each country and their
placement these different categories
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5. Projecting Future Notifications
Country Policy Uncertainty
Falconer Text
OTDS caps Total AMS + (new) Blue box + de minimis
(but not SDT)
Product-specific AMS and Blue Box caps
Reduction commitments
Remaining uncertainty about key parameters
Question of “how binding” compared to URAA
World Prices
Current forecasts
Levels more consistent with 1990-2005
“Everyone loves a boom”
Alternative Support Definitions
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6. Anticipated Issues
1. Measurement of Support Levels
2. Where Do Policies Fit
3. Relation to OECD PSEs and other Estimates of Support
4. Border Protection and Domestic Subsidies
5. Box Shifting
6. Special and Differential Treatment
7. Economic Assessments of Dispute Settlement Decisions
8. Instrument Cascading
9. Classification Criteria that Limit Economically Optimal Policies
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7. Let’s Get Started…
…and take up how to complete a cohesive overall
manuscript (and revise Chapter 1) on Saturday after the
full set of country presentations, substantial discussion,
and (hopefully constructive) brainstorming!
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