Se ha denunciado esta presentación.
Utilizamos tu perfil de LinkedIn y tus datos de actividad para personalizar los anuncios y mostrarte publicidad más relevante. Puedes cambiar tus preferencias de publicidad en cualquier momento.

COVID-19 in Egypt: Impacts on Production, Household Income & Food Systems

55 visualizaciones

Publicado el

Prepared by Clemens Breisinger1, Mariam Raouf1, Manfred Wiebelt2, Ahmed Kamaly3, Mouchera Karara3
1. International Food Policy Research Institute
2. Kiel Institute for the World Economy

  • Sé el primero en comentar

  • Sé el primero en recomendar esto

COVID-19 in Egypt: Impacts on Production, Household Income & Food Systems

  1. 1. Clemens Breisinger1, Mariam Raouf1, Manfred Wiebelt2, Ahmed Kamaly3, Mouchera Karara3 1. International Food Policy Research Institute 2. Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3. Ministry of Planning and Economic Development of the Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt Last updated: 24 September 2020 Contact: Clemens Breisinger (c.breisinger@cgiar.org) or Mariam Raouf (m.raouf@cgiar.org) COVID-19 in Egypt Impacts on Production, Household Income & Food Systems Financial support from We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which made this study possible under the project “Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity” (EIBC) that is implemented by IFPRI. The information provided in this paper is not official U.S. government information and does not represent the views or positions of the United States Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government. Any opinions stated herein are those of the authors and are not necessarily representative of or endorsed by IFPRI and the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development.
  2. 2. Impact of COVID-19 in Q4 (April-June) • By implementing a relatively modest and partial lockdown, Egypt’s GDP during the 4th quarter has declined by 1.1 percent compared to the same quarter in 2018/19. • For the whole fiscal year 2019/2020 MOED and IFPRI jointly estimated annul growth of 3.8 percent. • The services sector is hit hardest, followed by industry. Agriculture is the most resilient sector, especially parts of the livestock sector have posted positive growth. • Higher-income households face the largest income losses. Lower-income households also see their incomes decline significantly and find it harder to cope. • The government has taken bold actions to support these vulnerable groups, by allocating a monthly allowance for seasonal workers who lost their jobs and by increasing the number of beneficiaries under the Takaful and Karama program. • Continuing to fully open and support the economy will be critical for avoiding permanent job losses and increases in poverty. • The recovery process may also provide opportunities for fostering more private sector- driven and sustainable economic transformation. Source: https://ebrary.ifpri.org/digital/collection/p15738coll2/id/133764/
  3. 3. Egypt has phased out most restrictions in June Source: IFPRI Egypt COVID-19 Food Policy Monitor
  4. 4. Three scenarios for Egypt’s recovery from July to Dec. Fast Recovery Gradual Recovery Slow Recovery Global Shocks Q4 2019-2020 Partial Lockdown period Remittances and export demand decline Without Government Intervention Q1 2020- 2021 Production loss from lockdown period reduced by 95%-98%, for most of the sectors Hotels loss are reduced by only 50% Production losses from lockdown period reduced by 90-95% Production losses from lockdown period reduced by 80-85% Remittances didn’t decline, contrary to previous expectations . Hence, we didn’t implement any negative shock to remittances Hotels losses are reduced by only 50% Hotels losses are reduced by only 50% Q2 2020- 2021 Production losses reduced by 99% Hotels losses are reduced by only 50% Production losses reduced by 99- 95% Production losses reduced by 90-95% Hotels losses are reduced by only 50% Hotels losses are reduced by only 50% With Government Intervention Q1 2020- 2021 Keeping the same recovery assumptions for each sector as in Scenario 1, and assuming an increase in public investments of about 281 billion EGP (around 17.7 billion $), as targeted in the Investment plan of FY 2020/21. This second Scenario assumes that most of these Investments are directed to boost the construction sector, housing and infrastructure projects, especially roads and bridges under the national road network and the completion of the third and fourth phases of the Cairo metro. Q2 2020- 2021 *A detailed description about the size of the shocks for disaggregated sectors will be shown in the annex
  5. 5. Recovery scenarios, with and without government intervention (GDP) Change in quarterly GDP with fast or slow recovery (in percent change) (changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario) Change in quarterly GDP with fast or slow recovery (in percent change) (changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario) With Government Intervention (Investment plan) 0.8 2.7 -0.2 1.8 -1.2 1.1 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 Q1 Q2 Faster Recovery Gradual Recovery Slow Recovery -1.2 0.5 -2.2 -0.3 -3.1 -0.9 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 Q1 Q2 Faster Recovery Gradual Recovery Slow Recovery Without Government Intervention
  6. 6. Fast recovery scenario, with and without government intervention (Sectoral Impact) Change in quarterly Sector GDP (in percent change) (changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario) With Government Intervention (Investment plan) 0.8 3.3 0.7 1.3 -1.4 0.8 1.1 2.5 6.4 0.1 18.9 -0.6 0.1 0.7 -21.4 -0.3 -2.2 15.4 1.0 4.9 2.1 2.8 0.3 2.6 2.4 4.3 9.6 0.8 20.4 1.9 1.5 3.6 -9.1 1.2 1.0 13.0 Q2 Q1 0.6 -0.9 -1.0 -0.9 -1.8 -0.9 -0.5 -0.9 -1.1 -0.5 -0.5 -1.8 -1.2 -1.0 -22.2 -1.2 -3.0 15.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.2 2.0 -10.6 0.2 0.1 12.8 Agriculture Industry Mining Manufacturing Textile Wood and paper Chemicals Machinery Other Manufacturing Utility Construction Services Trade Tansportation Hotelry Fin Services Other Services ICT Q2 Q1 Without Government Intervention
  7. 7. Gradual recovery scenario, with and without government intervention (Sectoral Impact) Change in quarterly Sector GDP (in percent change) (changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario) With Government Intervention (Investment plan 0.5 2.4 0.0 0.4 -4.3 -0.9 0.8 1.3 4.9 -0.3 17.3 -1.9 -1.3 -2.7 -24.8 -1.2 -5.2 15.9 0.8 4.0 1.4 2.0 -2.0 1.1 1.8 3.2 8.3 0.5 19.3 0.8 0.2 0.9 -12.9 0.1 -0.1 16.8 Q2 Q1 0.4 -1.8 -1.7 -1.8 -4.7 -2.5 -0.7 -2.1 -2.5 -1.0 -2.1 -3.1 -2.5 -4.5 -25.6 -2.1 -6.0 15.7 0.7 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -2.5 -0.8 0.1 -0.7 -0.9 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -1.0 -0.6 -14.3 -0.8 -0.9 16.5 Agriculture Industry Mining Manufacturing Textile Wood and paper Chemicals Machinery Other Manufacturing Utility Construction Services Trade Tansportation Hotelry Fin Services Other Services ICT Q2 Q1 Without Government Intervention
  8. 8. Slow recovery scenario, with and without government intervention (Sectoral Impact) Change in quarterly Sector GDP (in percent change) (changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario) With Government Intervention (Investment plan 0.3 1.6 -0.7 -0.5 -7.6 -2.7 0.6 -0.2 3.6 -0.8 16.6 -3.1 -2.3 -4.2 -34.4 -2.1 -8.1 16.9 0.8 3.6 1.0 1.5 -3.7 -0.1 1.7 2.4 7.3 0.3 18.7 -0.1 -0.5 -0.3 -16.3 -0.6 -2.1 15.4 Q2 Q1 Without Government Intervention 0.1 -2.3 -2.3 -2.6 -7.9 -4.3 -0.9 -3.4 -3.5 -1.5 -1.7 -4.3 -3.4 -5.9 -35.2 -3.0 -8.9 16.7 0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -4.2 -1.9 0.1 -1.4 -1.7 -0.4 -0.7 -1.3 -1.7 -1.7 -17.7 -1.6 -2.9 15.2 Agriculture Industry Mining Manufacturing Textile Wood and paper Chemicals Machinery Other Manufacturing Utility Construction Services Trade Tansportation Hotelry Fin Services Other Services ICT Q2 Q1
  9. 9. Recovery scenarios, with and without government intervention (employment) Change in employment with fast or slow recovery (in percent change) (changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario) Change in employment with fast or slow recovery (in percent change) (changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario) -1.7 0.3 -3.1 -0.5 -4.0 -1.3 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 Q1 Q2 Faster Recovery Gradual Recovery Slow Recovery 2.6 4.9 1.2 3.8 0.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Q1 Q2 Faster Recovery Gradual Recovery Slow Recovery With Government Intervention (Investment plan) Without Government Intervention
  10. 10. Fast recovery scenario, with and without government intervention (Sectoral Impact) Change in quarterly Household income (in percent change) (changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario) With Government Intervention (Investment plan Without Government Intervention 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.8 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Q1 Q2 -1.4 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 Q1 Q2
  11. 11. Gradual recovery scenario, with and without government intervention (Sectoral Impact) Change in quarterly Household income (in percent change) (changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario) With Government Intervention (Investment plan) Without Government Intervention -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Q1 Q2 -2.4 -2.2 -2.5 -2.1 -2.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 Q1 Q2
  12. 12. Slow recovery scenario, with and without government intervention (Sectoral Impact) Change in quarterly Household income (in percent change) (changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario) With Government Intervention (Investment plan) Without Government Intervention -1.4 -1.3 -1.5 -1.3 -1.6 1.080 1.094 1.076 1.083 1.077 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 Q1 Q2 -3.4 -3.2 -3.4 -3 -3.6 -1 -0.9 -1 -0.8 -1.1 -4 -3.5 -3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 Q1 Q2
  13. 13. Annex : Size of the Shocks by Sector Recovery Scenarios SAM sectors Initial Shock Fast Recovery Gradual Recovery Slow Recovery Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Agriculture Wheat and barley 10.00% 1.00% 0.00% 1.50% 0.00% 2.50% 0.00% Livestock 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Cattle 10.00% 1.00% 0.00% 1.50% 0.00% 2.50% 0.00% Poultry 10.00% 1.00% 0.00% 1.50% 0.00% 2.50% 0.00% Other livestock 10.00% 0.23% 0.00% 0.35% 0.00% 0.58% 0.00% Agro-processing Meat processing 10.00% 0.50% 0.10% 1.50% 1.00% 2.50% 1.00% Dairy 5.00% 0.25% 0.05% 0.75% 0.50% 1.25% 0.50% Manufacturing Textiles -30.00% -1.50% 0.00% -5.00% -3.00% -10.00% -5.00% Clothing -30.00% -1.50% -0.30% -4.50% -3.00% -7.50% -5.00% Leather and footwear -30.00% -1.50% -0.30% -4.50% -3.00% -7.50% -5.00% Wood products -10.00% -0.50% -0.10% -1.50% -1.00% -2.50% -1.50% Paper products and publishing -20.00% -1.00% 0.00% -3.00% -2.00% -5.00% -3.00% Petroleum products Fertilizers and herbicides 10.00% 1.00% 0.00% 1.50% 0.00% 2.50% 0.00% Other chemicals 30.00% 5.00% 5.00% 10.00% 5.00% 15.00% 10.00% Non-metal minerals -20.00% -1.00% -0.20% -3.00% -2.00% -5.00% -3.00% Metals and metal products -20.00% -1.00% -0.20% -3.00% -2.00% -5.00% -3.00% Machinery and other equipment -20.00% -2.00% 0.00% -5.00% -3.00% -10.00% -5.00% Electrical equipment -20.00% -2.00% 0.00% -5.00% -3.00% -10.00% -5.00% Vehicles and transport equipment -50.00% -5.00% -1.00% -10.00% -7.00% -20.00% -10.00% Other manufacturing -20.00% -2.00% 0.00% -5.00% -3.00% -10.00% -5.00%
  14. 14. Annex : Size of the Shocks by Sector SAM sectors Initial ShockFast Recovery Gradual Recovery Slow Recovery Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Utilities Electricity, gas and steam -10.00% -0.50% 0.00% -1.00% -0.50% -1.50% -0.50% Water supply and sewage Construction -5.00% -1.00% 0.00% -2.50% -1.00% -1.00% -0.5 Trade -15.00% -1.00% 0.00% -2.50% -1.50% -3.00% -2.25% Transportation -30.00% -5.00% 0.00% -10.00% -5.00% -12.00% -6.00% Hotelry -90.00% -45.00% -45.00% -45.00% -45.00% -45.00% -27.00% Restaurants -20.00% -10.00% -5.00% -15.00% -10.00% -20.00% -10.00% ICT 50.00% 18.00% 15.00% 7.50% 5.00% 20.00% 18.00% Finance and insurance -10.00% -1.00% -1.50% -1.00% -2.00% -1.50% Real estate activities -10.00% -1.00% -1.50% -1.00% -2.00% -1.50% Business services -10.00% -1.00% -1.50% -1.00% -2.00% -1.50% Public administration -10.00% -1.00% -0.50% -1.50% -0.50% -2.00% -1.00% Education Health and social work 35.00% 10.00% 10.00% 15.00% 15.00% 20.00% 15.00% Other services -20.00% -4.00% -1.00% -7.00% -2.00% -10.00% -4.00%

×