1.
Zouhair ElKadhi2, Dalia Elsabbagh1, Thouraya Lakoud2, Manfred Wiebelt3, and
Clemens Breisinger1
1. International Food Policy Research Institute
2. Tunisian Institute of Competitiveness and Quantitative Studies
3. Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Last updated: 2 May 2020
Contact: Dalia Elsabbagh (d.elsabbagh@cgiar.org)
COVID-19 in Tunisia
Impacts on Production, Household Income &
Food Systems
Financial support from
Disclaimer: The analysis presented in this slide deck are the authors’ own
and do not necessarily reflect the view of the authors’ institutions.

2.
Source: Authors, based on various sources.
Note: TND = Tunisian Dinar (TND 1.00 = USD 0.34); CIT = corporate income tax; VAT = value-added tax.
Timeline of new COVID-19 cases and policy responses, 2020

3.
Expected impacts

4.
▪ The COVID-19 crisis is expected to lead to a 46.4 percent decline in Tunisia’s
GDP during the 2nd quarter of 2020 (April to June). The industrial sector will
be hit hardest, with output falling by 52.7 percent, followed closely by services
(–49.0 percent) and agriculture (–16.2 percent). These high losses are a result
of the complete lockdown imposed in the country to contain the pandemic.
▪ Higher-income urban households will see the largest income losses, although
lower-income urban households also will experience significant reductions in
their income. As a policy response, social transfers towards poorer
households will reduce the adverse welfare impact of these drops in
household income.
▪ Government policies to support struggling businesses will allow economic
activities to revive more rapidly when the lockdown loosens. Consequently,
comprehensive planning by the Government of Tunisia to re-open the economy
will be critical to reduce the pandemic’s adverse impact on the country’s
economy in the longer-term, reducing losses of employment and income,
especially in manufacturing and retail.
Expected impacts

5.
Expected impacts on output
GDP change over duration of crisis
in months, billion TND
GDP change under a three month crisis,
by sub-sector, %
Source: COVID-19 Tunisia multiplier model

6.
Expected impacts on employment
Employment change by sector,
by duration of crisis in months,
‘000s workers
Change in total employment
under a three month crisis,
by sub-sector, %
Source: COVID-19 Tunisia multiplier model

7.
Expected impacts on household income
Annual average household income change
for a three month crisis,
by sub-sector of employment, %
Annual average income loss,
by household category, TND
Source: COVID-19 Tunisia multiplier model