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COVID-19 in Tunisia: Impacts on Production, Household Income & Food Systems

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Prepared by Zouhair ElKadhi2, Dalia Elsabbagh1, Thouraya Lakoud2, Manfred Wiebelt3, and Clemens Breisinger1
1. International Food Policy Research Institute
2. Tunisian Institute of Competitiveness and Quantitative Studies
3. Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Last updated: 2 May 2020

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COVID-19 in Tunisia: Impacts on Production, Household Income & Food Systems

  1. 1. Zouhair ElKadhi2, Dalia Elsabbagh1, Thouraya Lakoud2, Manfred Wiebelt3, and Clemens Breisinger1 1. International Food Policy Research Institute 2. Tunisian Institute of Competitiveness and Quantitative Studies 3. Kiel Institute for the World Economy Last updated: 2 May 2020 Contact: Dalia Elsabbagh (d.elsabbagh@cgiar.org) COVID-19 in Tunisia Impacts on Production, Household Income & Food Systems Financial support from Disclaimer: The analysis presented in this slide deck are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect the view of the authors’ institutions.
  2. 2. Source: Authors, based on various sources. Note: TND = Tunisian Dinar (TND 1.00 = USD 0.34); CIT = corporate income tax; VAT = value-added tax. Timeline of new COVID-19 cases and policy responses, 2020
  3. 3. Expected impacts
  4. 4. ▪ The COVID-19 crisis is expected to lead to a 46.4 percent decline in Tunisia’s GDP during the 2nd quarter of 2020 (April to June). The industrial sector will be hit hardest, with output falling by 52.7 percent, followed closely by services (–49.0 percent) and agriculture (–16.2 percent). These high losses are a result of the complete lockdown imposed in the country to contain the pandemic. ▪ Higher-income urban households will see the largest income losses, although lower-income urban households also will experience significant reductions in their income. As a policy response, social transfers towards poorer households will reduce the adverse welfare impact of these drops in household income. ▪ Government policies to support struggling businesses will allow economic activities to revive more rapidly when the lockdown loosens. Consequently, comprehensive planning by the Government of Tunisia to re-open the economy will be critical to reduce the pandemic’s adverse impact on the country’s economy in the longer-term, reducing losses of employment and income, especially in manufacturing and retail. Expected impacts
  5. 5. Expected impacts on output GDP change over duration of crisis in months, billion TND GDP change under a three month crisis, by sub-sector, % Source: COVID-19 Tunisia multiplier model
  6. 6. Expected impacts on employment Employment change by sector, by duration of crisis in months, ‘000s workers Change in total employment under a three month crisis, by sub-sector, % Source: COVID-19 Tunisia multiplier model
  7. 7. Expected impacts on household income Annual average household income change for a three month crisis, by sub-sector of employment, % Annual average income loss, by household category, TND Source: COVID-19 Tunisia multiplier model

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