1. Ethiopia’s Recovery from Crisis –
Domains and Options
Seminar
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
1 March 2023

2. Crisis Response and
Reconstruction: Why Livestock
Matter
Joseph Karugia
Principal Scientist, ILRI
Presented at ESSP/ILRI/NPS Seminar on “‘Ethiopia’s Recovery from Crisis
– Domains and Options’”
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 1st March 2023

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• Crisis situations- conflict, Covid-19 pandemic, Russia-
Ukraine war - loss of lives, displacement, disruption of
economic activities, loss of livelihoods, food insecurity, loss
of assets, etc
• Efforts aimed at rebuilding livelihoods must consider the
most effective and efficient interventions
• What are the available options?
• Asset transfer programs have been shown to be effective in
different settings
• Evidence shows that livestock asset transfer programs have
several development benefits – potentially suitable for
reconstruction efforts
Introduction

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• Based on review of literature (Staal and Wanyoike, 2022): ex
post analyses, quantitative/objective measures of impact,
comparison/control group, interventions in LMICs
• More income and consumption expenditure among
resource-poor rural households: (Banerjee et al, 2015);
(Jodlowski et al, 2016); (Kafle at al, 2016); (Phadera et al, 2019).
• More assets and savings: (Argent et al, 2014); (Banerjee et al,
2015); (Phadera et al, 2019).
Development benefits of livestock
transfer programs

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• Better food security and resilience: (Banerjee et al, 2015);
(Kafle at al, 2016); (Phadera et al, 2019).
• Better child and household nutrition: (Rawlins, 2014);
(Jodlowski et al, 2016); (Kafle at al, 2016).
• Livestock asset transfer programs are usually accompanied
by training on how to utilize those assets for production
• Crisis may disrupt availability/access to services –
investments in vaccinations, disease surveillance, extension
services, feed supplementation, market information,
Development benefits of livestock
transfer programs

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• Livestock are pathways to more—and more nourishing—
foods, to more promising livelihoods and enahnced
incomes, to better human health and to healthier
environments.
• Yet limited attention to and investment in livestock
research and development
• ILRI has put together a resource to make the case for more
and better investment in the livestock sector to achieve the
sustainable development goals
• https://whylivestockmatter.org
Development benefits of livestock

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Livestock matter for economic opportunity
• Globally, livestock contribute about 40% of
agricultural GDP and provide livelihoods and
incomes for at least 1.3 billion people
• The demand for livestock products is
projected to double in the next 40 years,
offering huge opportunities for more than a
billion people who rely on the livestock
industry for their livelihoods
• It is estimated that the market value of
Africa’s animal-source foods will grow to
some USD151 billion by 2050 (from about
USD37bn in 2019)

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Livestock matter for economic opportunity
• Smallholders are significant
suppliers of livestock products
globally. This is an important
source of income, jobs and
sustenance for nearly 0.75
billion people engaged in
smallholder agriculture
• Livestock keeping is one of very
few livelihood options in
challenging settings such as
drylands: Nearly 200 million
pastoralists produce food and
generate incomes where crop
farming is limited, risky or
impossible

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Livestock matter for food and nutrition
• Despite progress in recent years,
malnutrition continues to be a significant
concern in many African countries,
particularly for young children and women
of reproductive age
• The inclusion of milk, eggs and meat in
the diet has been shown to promote
growth in children
• Animal source foods (ASF) provide higher
quality protein, essential, and more
‘bioavailable’, micronutrients such as iron,
zinc and vitamins A and B12).

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Livestock matter for food and nutrition
• The benefits of these foods to the young
are especially significant, with
enhancements of both the physical
growth and cognitive function of children
• In undernourished populations – ASF
consumption is very low and moderate
increases in ASF consumption provide
critical nutritional benefits with little
potential of crossing the threshold of
significant risk for chronic disease
• ASF are attractive as a food-based
intervention for populations that have
difficulty consuming large volumes of food

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Livestock matter for food and nutrition
• Ensuring access to animal-source foods
is a powerful way to ensure the world’s
poorest can improve their diet, either
through the animals they raise or the
income they receive from them

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Livestock matter for health
• The health of animals and humans
are intrinsically linked
• Addressing animal diseases can
directly improve human health,
particularly in the developing world
• Livestock also indirectly contribute to
health goals by supporting better
livelihoods and therefore better
dietary, educational and health
choices

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Livestock matter for gender and social
inclusion
• Compared to other wealth and income
opportunities, livestock are inflation-
proof, self-perpetuating assets that
women can own and benefit from
• Small stock such as goats and poultry
may be among the few assets they can
directly control
• Women may be involved in processing
and marketing livestock products

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Livestock matter for gender and social
inclusion
• In addition to wealth accumulation,
they provide income and nutritious
food for their families
• While women assume much of the
responsibility for raising livestock in
many developing countries, they often
face financial and cultural barriers to
maximising this potential. By investing
in women farmers, women, their
families and communities can benefit

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Livestock matter for climate and environment
• Livestock systems vary greatly around the
world and can enhance or harm the
environment depending on how they are
managed.
• Livestock and environment interactions
include climate change, water and land
use, nutrient recycling, and biodiversity.
• Livestock play a key role in the bio-
economy by increasing the value of crop
residues and agricultural by-products.
• Context-specific livestock production
practices can be developed to maximize
the synergies between livestock and the
environment

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Livestock contribute to:
all 17 of the SDGs and
directly to at least 8 of the
goals
the Malabo outcome/impact
commitments
• Commitment 3: Ending Hunger
in Africa by 2025
• Commitment 4: Halving Poverty
by the year 2025, through
inclusive agricultural growth
and transformation
• Commitment 5: Boosting Intra-
African Trade in Agricultural
Commodities and Services
• Commitment 6: Enhancing
Resilience of Livelihoods and
Production Systems to Climate
Variability and other related
risks
all CGIAR impact
areas
Nutrition,
health and
food security
Poverty
reduction,
livelihoods and
jobs
Gender equality,
youth and
inclusion
Climate
Adaptation
and Mitigation
Environmental
health and
biodiversity

17. THANK YOU
https://whylivestockmatter.org

18. Role of Policy Research in the Recovery Process
Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse
ESSP/IFPRI
Presentation at the seminar on ‘Ethiopia’s Recovery from Crisis –
Domains and Options,’ organized by ESSP, ILRI, and NPS,
March 1, 2023
17
Disclaimer – The views expressed in the following do not
necessarily reflect those of IFPRI

19. Outline
 Context
 Conflict, welfare, growth
 Role of policy research;

20. Context
 Period of reform – the Homegrown Economic Reform (HGER)
program, Ten-Year Development Plan (TYDP) (2014-2023 EC).
 Period of shocks – the COVID-19 pandemic, the worst locust invasion
in decades, a major conflict in the Northern regions of the country, a
harsh drought in large areas in the country’s South, East, and North,
global economic crisis due to the war in Ukraine;
 Economic challenges – disrupted flow of goods and services, massive
internal displacements, destruction of assets, millions facing increased
food insecurity, weakening of institutions, economic sanctions, forced
reallocation of resources, macro imbalances;

21. Context (continued)
 GoE’s economic reforms and responses to shocks
 continued reform initiatives (albeit at a slower pace) – privatization of
SOEs, particularly the telecom sector, and opening some sectors for
external competition (logistics, for example).
 response to the COVID-19 pandemic – introduced a partial lockdown,
including extended school closure, a State of Emergency (ended in
August 2020), an economic stimulus package, and tax reliefs to
businesses.
 price stabilization measures – increased importation and subsidized
provision of some food items, sanctions against alleged bad practice by
individual traders, and extended a temporary rent freeze, elimination
of VAT and import taxes on food items,
 social protection – maintained and renewed the large Productive Safety
Net Program (PSNP) combined with emergency relief;
 recovery – a Three-Year Economic Recovery Plan in progress.
 Welfare consequences – rapid inflation, slower growth, and rising
poverty.

22. Incidence of conflict events
November 4, 2018 – November 3, 2020 November 4, 2020 – March 25, 2022
Incidence
of Battles
and
Violence
against
Civilians
Source:
Prepared by
the authors
using ACLED
Data.
 Frequency and composition of conflict (violent) events changed considerably since
November 2020 (the onset of the war in Northern Ethiopia)
 Frequency - almost twice as many of these events occurred in the latter
period.
 Composition – incidence of battles rose more than five-fold (due to the war),
the number of events involving ‘violence against civilians’ also rose.
 Spatial distribution – concentrating in Tigray, Amhara, Afar, and Oromia.

23. Impact of Conflict – Channels
Why should we worry?
Conflict negatively affects welfare directly and through reduced
growth.
 Four economic effects (Collier (1999))
 Destruction – human, physical, natural resources (mortality or
morbidity, damage or destruction physical and natural assets such as
factories, roads, power stations …)
 Disruption – interruption of normal order of business including
movement of goods/people and provision of services due to breakdown
of infrastructure/insecurity …
 Diversion – reallocation of public and private resources away from
output-enhancing activities.
 Dissaving – reduction or lower rate of accumulation of assets
including running down financial savings, capital flight, postponed
investment, migration
 Psychosocial effects: psychological consequences due to exposure to
conflict (mental and emotional wellbeing, the environment, and behaviour)

24. Impact of Conflict on Growth – Illustration from Ethiopian History
-8.0 -8.3 -8.3
-6.6
-4.7
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
%
Year
Growth of GDP per capita (1951-2021) (%)
Source: Authors’ computation using data from The Conference Board (2021).
Duration and intensity matters

25. Role of Policy Research
 Identifying costs
 Direct costs – costs directly and contemporaneously attributable to
conflict including mortality and morbidity; destruction of productive
capital and infrastructure (farms, factories, machinery and equipment,
education and health facilities, other public infrastructure); damage to
personal property (housing, vehicles, and others); and the budgetary
cost of war …
 Indirect costs – costs attributable to circumstances and responses
induced by conflict including population dislocation, reduced production,
trade disruption, lower current and future physical investment, decline
in educational opportunities and health coverage, migration, including
brain drain, and decreased tourism.
 Immediate vs. accumulated costs
 Outcomes – reduced economic growth and welfare (lower productivity,
higher prices, decreased employment, and lower incomes);
 Macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP and private consumption,
can serve as summary measures of the cost of conflict.

26. Role of Policy Research
 Measuring costs
 Obtaining the relevant data
o Direct costs – observed and most from Federal and Regional
governments reports (estimated values of productive capital,
infrastructure, and public service facilities destroyed; uncultivated
land; government budget; and national accounts and balance of
payments data – usually incomplete, scattered, ….
o Indirect costs – ‘unobserved’ (counterfactuals) and accumulate
over time (discounting).
 Counterfactuals
o Express what would have happened in the absence of
conflict.
o Cost (impact) = the difference between counterfactual outcome
and the corresponding simulated (or actual) outcomes under
conflict
o Modelling is used to construct the counterfactuals.

27. Role of Policy Research
 Measuring costs (continued)
 Modelling
o Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) – to assess the
potential growth and welfare effects of conflict/shocks via the CGE
modeling-based simulations or scenario-building.
o Microsimulation model – to assess the effect on household
incomes and poverty.
o Synthetic control – uses pre-conflict data on units unaffected by the
conflict
o CGE and microsimulation can be used to explore recovery
scenarios and their implications.
 Identify and assess recovery options
 Assess recovery options – speed and cost of recovery;
 Measure the size of investments required for recovery;
 Explore policy instruments available for recovery – tax system,
public investment, regulation, social protection, …

28. Role of Policy Research
 Findings (highlights)
 considerable rise in government recurrent expenditure;
 substantial reductions in levels and growth rates of GDP and
private consumption during the conflict period and subsequent years;
 fall in household incomes;
 poorer households face larger reductions;
 rise in poverty and inequality (marginally);
 Knowledge gap and action going forward
 Assesses recovery options;
 the psychosocial effects of conflict and related impact of recovery and
resilience
 the root causes of conflict in the country are critical priority areas
for research, policy analysis, and collective action
 the symbiotic link between conflicts and the country’s vulnerability to
economic, natural (environmental), and political shocks and
stressors

29. Impact of Conflict on Growth – Some observations on Recovery
(continued)
 Acknowledge extensive efforts of the GoE to address the negative
consequences of the shocks mentioned earlier;
 the Three-year Recovery Plan begins in 2015 EC.
 the restoration of peace and political stability is critical for
recovery and structural transformation in Ethiopia.
 Knowledge gap and action going forward
 the root causes of conflict in the country are critical priority
areas for research, policy analysis, and, more importantly,
collective action
 the symbiotic link between conflicts and the country’s
vulnerability to economic, natural (environmental), and
political shocks and stressors is a good starting point

30. Thank You

31. National Policies and Strategies Initiative
Overview & progress
Clemens Breisinger
Country and Regional Program Leader, IFPRI
Lead, CGIAR Initiative on National Policies and Strategies
Presented at ESSP/ILRI//NPS Seminar: Ethiopia’s recovery from crisis: domains
and options
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 1 March 2023

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Colombia, Nigeria, Egypt, Kenya, India, Laos
Responding to policy demand & crises
Building policy coherence
Strengthening policy coherence at national level, and across the One CGIAR initiative portfolio
Piloting national policy and cross-CGIAR policy coherence mechanisms
(Work Packages 1,2,3,4)
Rapid-response tools, network of experts and evidence
Communities of policy practice, NPS Country Seminar Series
(Work Packages 1, 3 and 4)
Integrating policy tools
Strengthening the analytical performance of countries’ institutions
Training of Trainers (TOT) approach & user-friendly tools
(Work Packages 1, 2 and 4)
Main NPS Impact Areas:
 Nutrition, health and food security
 Poverty reduction, livelihoods and jobs
 Gender equality, youth and social inclusion
 Climate adaptation and mitigation
 Environmental health and biodiversity
Framework and Goals

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Register
https://www.cgiar.org/initiative/
national-policies-and-strategies/