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Selected Economic Effects of the 2022 Pakistan Floods

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Selected Economic Effects of the 2022 Pakistan Floods

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Steve Davies, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI
Pakistan Water Week
October 25, 2022

Steve Davies, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI
Pakistan Water Week
October 25, 2022

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Selected Economic Effects of the 2022 Pakistan Floods

  1. 1. Selected Economic Effects of the 2022 Pakistan floods A presentation for Pakistan Water Week, October 25, 2022 By Steve Davies, IFPRI Senior Research Fellow
  2. 2. www.cgiar.org Introduction The floods in Pakistan this summer have had well known and devastating effects: • The total economic damages appears to be approaching $40 billion equivalent to more than 10 percent of Pakistan's 2021 GDP • Crop and livestock losses are extensive: ICIMOD estimated that losses might be $543 million for rice $485 million for cotton and $273 million for sugarcane just in Sindh! The immediate needs are for food, clean water, shelter and basic health services, which were provided both in kind and through a cash transfer program
  3. 3. Dimensions of Economic Effects Want to examine the broader effects, from selected perspectives: • Market and Productivity effects • What’s happened to prices, trade and production in various locations • Distributional effects • By sector and households • Public policy challenges and potentials • What should government do next
  4. 4. Nominal Price Changes of Selected Commodities Sept 2021 to Sept 2022 Commodity % change Sept 21 – Sept 22 Commodity % change Sept 21 – Sept 22 Tomatoes 113.0 Basmati rice 30.5 Long Cloth 15.1 Sugar -13.0 Shirting 21.0 Onions 170.0 Milk 29.0 Petrol 62.8 Irri Rice 36.6 Mutton 25.9
  5. 5. www.cgiar.org SPA Effects of PKR 1.0 Billion to Construction 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.10 15.11 15.12 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 16.10 16.11 16.12 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 17.10 17.11 17.12 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.9 18.10 PRK/$ and City CPI Year and Month City CPI* and $/Rupee Exchange Rate PKR to USD CPI
  6. 6. www.cgiar.org Real Price changes Oct 2016-Oct 2018 dfsdfs KPK Punjab Sindh Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Starchy Staples 9.3% 8.1% 6.2% 4.6% 15.0% 12.3% Vegetables -23.4% -30.6% -23.2% -24.1% -25.2% -20.1% Fruits -13.7% -11.7% 5.9% -15.1% -11.8% -2.9% Dairy Foods 2.3% 9.1% -1.4% 0.5% 17.6% 12.5% Protein Foods 12.1% 11.3% 11.0% 12.3% 11.3% 13.4% Oils & Fats 17.4% 12.9% 18.4% 15.7% 15.5% 12.0% Discretionary Foods 19.8% 30.7% 24.2% 33.4% 18.0% 16.2%
  7. 7. District-Wise Crop Area Affected by Floods
  8. 8. District-Wise Incidence of Poverty Source: GoP, OPHI and UNDP: Multidimensional Poverty in Pakistan
  9. 9. www.cgiar.org Economic Effects of RS 200 billion Loss in selected Commodities Effects of RS 200 billion Loss in : Affected Commodity rice cotton sugar livestock F&V Crops etc. -5.0 -3.1 -2.7 -23.4 -3.9 Textiles -7.3 -4.9 -3.8 -2.9 -10.4 Fert -31.9 -17.4 -15.1 -3.8 -17.2 Manu -5.1 -3.8 -2.4 -2.3 -4.0 Services -89.5 -76.6 -49.3 -46.5 -73.3 Farm Labor -14.4 -40.2 -16.1 -24.5 -20.5 Other Labor -15.8 -18.5 -9.6 -12.8 -15.4 Subtotal -169.1 -164.5 -99.0 -116.2 -144.7 Own Effect -175.8 -166.6 -219.0 -177 -178.9 Total -344.9 -331.1 -318.0 -293.2 -323.6
  10. 10. www.cgiar.org Compensating for Losses Affected Commodity Infrastructure Combo Crops etc. 6.6 10.0 Textiles 9.5 6.5 Fert 5.0 16.2 Manu 26.0 3.5 Services 80.4 65.6 Farm Labor 0.6 29.0 Other Labor 27.9 15.6 Subtotal 156.1 146.6 Own Effect 223.0 177.2 Total 379.1 323.8 One set of estimates of losses from ICIMOD had them pegged at: Rice Rs. 124 billion Cotton Rs. 110 billion Sugarcanes Rs. 62 billion Livestock and other: Rs. 91 billion These lead to losses of about Rs. 600 billion with indirect effects Would need an infrastructure program of Rs 350 billion to compensate for losses
  11. 11. www.cgiar.org Conclusions Price changes are likely affected by the value of the Rupee rising real international prices, especially for petroleum, and specific situations for different commodities rather than The location specific damages suggest significant distributional effects as the floods had the biggest impacts in poor districts In designing the interventions, indirect impacts should be accounted for

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