Smart machines -esitys Tampereella 02/2016

Smart machines
The smart machine era will be the most disruptive in the history of IT.
Gartner (8th Oct 2014)
© Immo Salo
05.02.2016

Tulevaisuus on täällä!
ED-209, Robocop, 1987

Gartner ja Smart Machines
● Gartner on listannut älykkäät koneet (Smart Machines)
10 tulevaisuuden strategisten teknologioiden joukkoon
useana vuotena peräkkäin
www.smartmachines.fi

Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014
● Web-Scale IT
● Smart Machines
● 3D Printing
● The Era of Personal Cloud
● Software-Defined Anything
● Mobile Device Diversity and Management
● Mobile Apps and Applications
● The Internet of Everything
● Hybrid Cloud & IT as a Service Broker
● Cloud/Client Architecture

● Computing Everywhere
● The Internet of Things
● 3D Printing
● Advanced, Pervasive and Invisible Analytics
● Context-Rich Systems
● Smart Machines
● Cloud/Client Computing
● Software-Defined Applications and Infrastructure
● Web-Scale IT
● Risk-Based Security and Self-Protection

● The Device Mesh
● Ambient User Experience
● 3D Printing Materials
● Information of Everything
● Advanced Machine Learning
● Autonomous Agents and Things
● Adaptive Security Architecture
● Advanced System Architecture
● Mesh App and Service Architecture
● Internet of Things Platforms

Smart Machines kirjoituksia
Kirjoituksia aiheesta “Smart Machines”:
● How Smart, Connected Products Are Transforming Competition
Harvard Business Review, Nov 2014
● Hype Cycle of Smart Machines released
Gartner, Jul 2014
● McKinsey writes about Smart Machines
McKinsey Quarterly, Sep 2014
● Economist writes about Smart Machines
“The Age of Smart Machines”, May 2014
● Cool Vendors of Smart Machines
Gartner, Apr 2015

Klassikkokirja 1
The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress,
and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant
Technologies
Brynjolfsson, McAfee

Uusi klassikkokirja?
Rise Of The Robots: Technology and the
threat of a jobless future (May 2015)
M. Ford

Määritelmiä: Smart Machines
“Smart machines include robots, self-driving cars and other cognitive computing systems that are able to
make decisions and solve problems without human intervention.”
Techtarget.com
“[Smart Machines are]...contextually aware, intelligent personal assistants, smart advisors (such as IBM
Watson), advanced global industrial systems and public availability of early examples of autonomous
vehicles”
Gartner
“...a smart machine is an intelligent device that uses machine-to-machine (M2M) technology. Smart
machines include robots, self-driving cars and other cognitive computing systems that are able to make
decisions and solve problems without human intervention.”
Techtarget.com

Viitekehys: Smart Machines
1. Observe
learn by observing
2. Tests
test the real world
3. Autonomous
behave autonomously
4. Probabilistic
making decision based on probabilities
5. Predicts
predict the future based on models and calculations
6. Purpose
narrow in purpose, each machine has its own purpose and there are different machines for different purposes
7. Understands
appear to understand concepts, relationships, causalities
8. Human reaction
“I didn’t know a machine could do that!”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4kfdkCFQ2g
Gartner tried to answer the question in July 2014

Viitekehys jatkuu
● Smart Machines are technologies that:
○ Deal with high levels of complexity and uncertainty
○ Decision making based on probabilistics
○ Understanding of task-specific contexts
○ Multitude of uses
○ Some gauge person’s feelings by examining facial
movements etc.
http://gartnernews.com/smart-machine-disruption-will-dominate-this-decade/

Mikä tekee koneista älykkäitä?
http://www.slideshare.net/GarimaNanda/seminar-smart-machine
Intelligent
capable to operate autonomously
Secure
avoid and correct processing errors
Managed
learn and anticipate future events
Connected
interact with other machines and
systems

Smart Machines ja 3 D:tä
http://gartnernews.com/three-emerging-trends-drive-digital-business/
Gartner puhuu myös käsitteestä “Smart Things”

Uudet teknologiat ovat mahdollistajia
● Älykkäiden koneiden
idea ei ole uusi, mutta
nyt niiden aika on
koittanut
→ Täydellinen myrsky
teknologioiden ja käsitteiden kypsyysaste on riittävä

Innovaatiot ovat avain
● Tärkeimmät innovaatiot ovat niin sanottuja
yhdisteleviä innovaatioita
(combinatory innovations*)
● Luova tuho on niiden kohtalo, jotka eivät ole
kykeneviä muutokseen
● Muutosvauhti voi olla yllättävän nopea
* The Second Machine Age, Brynjolfsson & McAfeewww.smartmachines.fi

Muutoksen vaiheet
1. Ihmettely
○ “These machines are amazing!”
2. Innovaatiot, vaihe 1
○ “Changing the way business is done within existing industries”
○ “Creating new industries”
○ “Destruction of old industries / business models”
5. Ekosysteemien aika (The Age of Ecosystems)
○ “High-technologization of industries, ecosystem-level competition”

Teknologia ja ajoitus
● Smart Machines ilmiönä rakentuu suurelta osin olemassa
olevien teknologioiden ja innovaatioiden varaan
○ Cloud computing
○ Big data
○ Internet of Everything
○ Robotics

Tutut käsitteet taustalla
Cloud computing
● IaaS
● PaaS
● SaaS
XaaS
Big Data
● Volume
● Variety
● Velocity
multiple other V’s
Internet of Everything
● People
● Things
● Places
● Information
Robotics
● Industrial
● Service
● Consumer
Smart Machines yhdistelee 2000-luvun tuttuja ilmiöitä

Cloud Computing is the brain
powering Smart Machines

Pilvipalveluiden rooli
● Pilvipalvelut ovat älykkäiden koneiden mahdollistaja
“Imagine a robot that finds an object that it's never seen or used
before—say, a plastic cup. The robot could simply send an
image of the cup to the cloud and receive back the object’s
name, a 3-D model, and instructions on how to use it”
J. Kuffner, Google
IEEE: Jan 2011, http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/robotics-software/cloud-roboticswww.smartmachines.fi

Division of execution
Onboard execution
➢ Simple, repetitive tasks
➢ Motorics
➢ Tasks related to events
that always demand
immediate response
Cloud execution
➢ Complex tasks
➢ Machine learning
➢ Tasks that demand compute-
or memory-intensive analytics

Quote: Ken Goldberg,
Berkeley University
“Robot learning is going to be greatly accelerated.
Putting it a little simply, one robot can spend
10,000 hours learning something, or 10,000
robots can spend one hour learning the same
thing.”
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/10/25/the-robot-in-the-cloud-a-conversation-with-ken-goldbergwww.smartmachines.fi

Koneoppiminen ja Youtube
● Robots learning to cook by watching Youtube
www.smartmachines.fi http://arxiv.org/pdf/1112.6209v5.pdf
Researchers have come up with a new way to teach
robots how to use tools simply by watching videos on
YouTube.
Robot Learning Manipulation Action Plans by ‘Watching’
Unconstrained Videos from the World Wide Web
Image Credit: Erik Charlton/Flickr

Advanced Analytics provides wisdom to Smart Machines

Mitä tarkoittaa big data?
http://aws.amazon.com/kinesis/www.smartmachines.fi

Datan ulottuvuudet

Big datan rooli
● Esimerkki pilvipalveluista
“Amazon Kinesis is a fully managed service for real-time processing of
streaming data at massive scale. Amazon Kinesis can collect and
process hundreds of terabytes of data per hour from hundreds of
thousands of sources, allowing you to easily write applications that
process information in real-time, from sources such as web site click-
streams, marketing and financial information, manufacturing
instrumentation and social media, and operational logs and metering
data.”
An Inside Look at Google BigQuery

Big datan rooli
● Edistynyt analytiikka auttaa mallintamaan ilmiötä ja
ennustamaan tulevaa
“Machine learning–mining historical data with computer systems to
predict future trends or behavior–touches more and more lives every
day. Search engines, online recommendations, ad targeting, virtual
assistants, demand forecasting, fraud detection, spam filters–machine
learning powers all these modern services. But these uses barely
scratch the surface of what's possible.”
Microsoft Azure Machine Learning
http://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/services/machine-learning/www.smartmachines.fi

Esimerkki: IBM Watson
● IBM Watson on saatavilla palveluna (alk. 09/2014)
“In the future a cleaning robot in the hospital corridor
connected to Medical Watson might be able to give you
more precise diagnosis and prognosis than the doctor
who you are waiting to see.”

IBM Watson ja älykäs lelu
“CogniToy works by pressing a button
on its belly and asking it questions.
The toy connects via Wi-Fi to the
Watson servers, looks up the answer,
and responds.”
Tech.co

Robotics makes digitalization visible in production,
services, transportation and all other areas of life

Teollisuusrobottien myyntitilasto
Worldrobotics.org: http://www.worldrobotics.org/uploads/tx_zeifr/June_04__2014_PI_IFR_World_Robot_Market.pdf
Record high sales of industrial
robots in 2013

“Turning to the projections for the period of 2013 to 2016, sales forecast which
were provided by companies worldwide indicate an increase to about 94,800
units with an estimated value of US$ 17.1 billion.
Thereof, about 28,000 robots for defense applications are expected to be sold
in the period of 2013 to 2016. They are followed by milking robots with about
24,500 units. However, this is probably a rather conservative estimate. These
two service robot groups make up 55% of the total forecast of service robots at
the current time.”
Palvelurobotit
Worldrobotics.org: http://www.ifr.org/service-robots/statistics/

Kotitalousrobotit
Worldrobotics.org: http://www.ifr.org/service-robots/statistics/www.smartmachines.fi
...vacuum and floor cleaning, lawn-
mowing robots, and entertainment
and leisure robots, including toy
robots, hobby systems, education and
research.

Droonit
https://www.sensefly.com/drones/ebee.html
No piloting skills required
The eBee takes off, flies and lands
autonomously.
The artificial intelligence incorporated in the
senseFly autopilot continuously analyzes data
from the Inertial Measurement Unit and the
onboard GPS and takes care of all aspects of
the flight mission.

Droonit
https://atmelcorporation.wordpress.com/2014/10/08/gartner-smart-machine-disruption-will-dominate-this-decade/www.smartmachines.fi
Työpaikkoja häviää ja uusia syntyy
Gartner

● 1960-luvulla Suomen metsissä työskenteli enimmillään
200 000 metsätyöntekijää
● 2000-luvulla Suomen metsissä työskentelee noin 5000-
10 000 metsätyöntekijää
Vähennys siis jopa > 95 %!
Esimerkki: metsätalous

● 2010-luvulla Suomen teillä ajaa noin 100 000
ammattikuljettajaa
● Montako luulet heitä olevan vuonna 2050?
Esimerkki: logistiikka

Kuluttajarobotiikka
https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/jibo-the-world-s-first-family-robot
Jibo
kickstarter project, shipping 2015
What is Jibo? It’s a little pod with a motorized
swivel, equipped with cameras, microphones
and a display. It recognizes faces and voices,
and can act as a personal assistant by setting
reminders, delivering messages and offering to
take group photos. It also serves as a
telepresence robot for video chat.
Time.com

Internet of Things
There are 50 to 500 billion connected devices in 2020
IDC, General Electric

Smart, connected things
● Harward Business Review (Nov 2014)
“Embedded sensors, processors, software, and
connectivity in products, coupled with a product cloud in
which product data is stored and analyzed and some
applications are run, are driving dramatic improvements
in product functionality and performance”
www.smartmachines.fi HBR: https://hbr.org/2014/11/how-smart-connected-products-are-transforming-competition

IBM SyNAPSE chip
● Siru, joka matkii aivojen
rakennetta
(esiteltiin 08/2014)
IBM: http://www.research.ibm.com/cognitive-computing/neurosynaptic-chips.shtml
The architecture can solve a wide class of problems
from vision, audition, and multi-sensory fusion, and has
the potential to revolutionize the computer industry by
integrating brain-like capability into devices where
computation is constrained by power and speed.

Google Brain
● Tekoäly, Artificial Intelligence (AI) saa nyt paljon
huomiota
www.smartmachines.fi http://arxiv.org/pdf/1112.6209v5.pdf
Building High-level Features
Using Large Scale Unsupervised Learning
Our high-level detectors also outperform standard baselines in terms
of recognition rates, achieving 74.8% and 76.7% on cat and human
body respectively. In comparison, best linear filters (sampled from
the training set) only achieve 67.2% and 68.1% respectively.
Stanford & Google -paper Jul 2012
Cat face drawn by computer base on
looking at cat images from Youtube.

Go-peli
"Many Go players see the game as the final bastion of human
dominance over computers.", Wired 2014
http://www.wired.com/2014/05/the-world-of-computer-go/

Go-peli
"A computing system developed by Google researchers has beaten a
top human player at the game of Go", Wired 2016
http://www.wired.com/2016/01/in-a-huge-breakthrough-googles-ai-beats-a-top-player-at-the-game-of-go/

Intel Edison
● Muistatko Raspberry Pi:n?
● Intel Edison kehittää
minikokoisen tietokoneen
ajatusta eteenpäin
● Sovitettavissa lähes mihin
tahansa (leveys vain 35 mm)
Intel: http://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/do-it-yourself/edison.html
The Intel® Edison development platform is the first
in a series of low-cost, product-ready, general
purpose compute platforms that help lower the
barriers to entry for entrepreneurs in the Internet of
Things (IoT).
3,5 cm

Particle (aikaisemmin Spark)
● Particle is a Wi-Fi and cellular development kits for
connecting devices and “things” to internet
Particle: www.particle.iowww.smartmachines.fi

The Smart Machine era will be the most disruptive in the history of IT.
Gartner Oct 2013

Smart, connected products
● Physical components
○ Example: The core product itself
● Smart components
○ Example: Intel Edison, Raspberry Pi
● Connectivity
○ Example: Particle
by HBR
HBR: https://hbr.org/2014/11/how-smart-connected-products-are-transforming-competition

Smart Machines -kategoriat, 1
● Movers
○ Example: Google “Self-Driving car”
● Doers
○ Example: Rethinking Robotics “Baxter”
● Sages
○ Example: IBM “Watson”
IBM: Oct 2013, http://www.ibmbigdatahub.com/blog/rise-smart-machines-nothing-fear-now-austinwww.smartmachines.fi
by IBM

Movers
Google Self-Driving Car: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_driverless_carwww.smartmachines.fi
Google Driverless Car

Tulevaisuuden liikenne
“...vuonna 2025 liikenteen kotimainen palvelumarkkina on 5 miljardia
euroa ja työllistää 50 000 henkilöä”
http://www.elisa.net/tulevaisuuden-liikenne/

Doers
Rething robotics: http://www.rethinkrobotics.com/baxter/www.smartmachines.fi
Baxter

Sages
IBM: http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/ibmwatson/what-is-watson.htmlwww.smartmachines.fi
IBM Watson beating top human players in Jeopardy 2011

Smart Machines -kategoriat, 2
● Expert systems (sages)
○ Example: IBM “Watson”
● Autonomous robots (movers, doers)
○ Example: Google “Self-Driving car”
● Intelligent assistants (helpers?)
○ Examples: Apple “Siri”, Microsoft “Cortana”
Technavio: Oct 2014, http://www.technavio.com/blog/know-your-robots-top-three-types-of-smart-machinewww.smartmachines.fi
by Technavio

Smart Machines -kategoriat
Categories
source: IBM
Categories
source: Technavio
Sages Expert Systems
Movers Autonomous Robots
Doers Intelligent Assistants

Asiantuntijuus automatisoituna
www.smartmachines.fi Technavio: Oct 2014, http://www.technavio.com/blog/know-your-robots-top-three-types-of-smart-machine
Problem Definition
System Design
Formalization
System Implementation
System Validation

Autonomisen robotin ominaispiirteet
● Self-Maintenance
● Ability to sense the environment (sensors)
● Ability to perform physical tasks (motorics)
● Ability to navigate point to point (movement)

Eettinen ohjelmointi?
Gartner: Smart Machines Require Ethical Programming:
● Level 0: Non-Ethical Programming
○ no explicit considerations for the behavior of technology
● Level 1: Ethical Oversight
○ no ethical programming, but deployment and usage may have ethical considerations
● Level 2: Ethical Programming
○ responsibility is shared between the user, the service provider and the designer
● Level 3: Evolutionary Ethical Programming
○ ethical programming as part of a machine that learns and evolves autonomously
● Level 4: Machine-Developed Ethics
○ smart machines become self-aware, they will need to be raised and taught and their ethics need to evolve
Gartner: http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3007417www.smartmachines.fi

Virtuaaliset assistentit
First Generation
based on text, low-quality end-user interface
Second Generation
interactive moving, cartoon type characters, text-to-text, only little speech
Third Generation
animation, responses to speech, functionality to measure response accuracy
Fourth Generation
quality animated characters, dashboards, analytics, mobile solutions, high accuracy
Fifth Generation
3D images, extraordinary accuracy, requests feedback, full speech-to-speech support

Wearables, augmented reality
“Clothing and accessories incorporating computer and advanced
electronic technologies”
Wikipedia, Sep 2014
Microsoft HoloLens
Apple Watch

Wearables, kategoriat
1. Lifestyle
○ enhancing and simplifying everyday tasks and activities
2. Entertainment
○ providing enjoyment and entertainment to the user
3. Health & Fitness
○ giving insight to the user by showing personal body data
www.smartmachines.fi http://wearableworldnews.com/2014/05/06/wearable-world-taxonomy

Eksoskeletonit
● “A powered exoskeleton, also known as powered armor, exoframe, or
exosuit, is a mobile machine consisting primarily of an outer framework
(akin to an insect's exoskeleton) worn by a person, and powered by a
system of motors or hydraulics that delivers at least part of the energy
for limb movement.”
Wikipedia
● Gaining a lot of attention with huge possibilities to offer (ie ReWalk*)
www.smartmachines.fi http://wearableworldnews.com/2014/05/06/wearable-world-taxonomy
*ReWalk helps paralyzed people to walk again. It had a successful IPO on Nasdac in Sep 2014

Älykkäiden koneiden rooli taloudessa
● Assist people
● Advise people
● Observe and help people
● Extend people
● Replace people?
...
IBM: Oct 2013, http://www.ibmbigdatahub.com/blog/rise-smart-machines-nothing-fear-now-austinwww.smartmachines.fi

Kuka omistaa älykkään koneen?
“It’s John Deere’s tractor, folks. You’re just driving it.”
Wired
...
Wired: http://www.wired.com/2015/04/dmca-ownership-john-deere/www.smartmachines.fi

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs.pdf

Työn tulevaisuus?
Oxford Martin School: Sep 2013, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf
“According to our estimate, 47 percent of total US
employment is in the high risk category,
meaning that associated occupations are
potentially automatable over some unspecified
number of years, perhaps a decade or two“
The future of employment: how suspectible are jobs to computerisation?
Frey & Osborne, Oxford Martin School

Työpaikkoja häviää varmasti
http://www.computerworld.com/article/2691607/one-in-three-jobs-will-be-taken-by-software-or-robots-by-2025.html
“One in three jobs will be taken by [Smart
Machines] by 2025“
Peter Sondergaard, Gartner research director, Oct 2014

Vielä tarvetta ihmisillekin?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/darden/2015/01/12/the-ai-revolution-will-humanize-businesses/www.smartmachines.fi
“The predictions from experts at MIT, IBM and Oxford are that humans
still will be needed for jobs requiring complex critical thinking, creativity,
innovative thinking, and high emotional and social engagement with
other humans, as well as performing customized manual tasks
requiring physical dexterity.”
Forbes, Jan 2015, Ai Revolution Will Humanize Businesses

www.smartmachines.fi twitter.com/immon
What next?
● Innovaatiot
● Investoinnit
● Luova tuho
● Uutta osaamista
tarvitaan

Smart machines -esitys Tampereella 02/2016

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Smart machines -esitys Tampereella 02/2016