Part three of a five part seminar on technology forecasting, tools, techniques and processes. Part four covers the expert opinion techniques.

1. Forecasting Technological Change Session 3. Expert Opinion Techniques Paul A. Schumann, Jr. Glocal Vantage, Inc. 06/07/09

9. Conversation 06/07/09 Values Information Same Different Same Different Converse Converse Argue Build Intimacy Creativity Temperament

10. Johari Window 06/07/09 Self Others Know Don’t Know Know Don’t Know

11. Conversation 06/07/09 Interviewer Expert Result

12. Temperaments 06/07/09 Source: Grant (www.glocalvantage.com/ StrategicPartners/Grant.html Objective/External Subjective/Internal Past Future SJ Traditionalist Stablizer Consolidator NF Catalyst Spokesperson Motivator SP Troubleshooter Negotiator Firefighter NT Visionary System Architect Integrator Present

13. Interviews 06/07/09 Highly Structured Unstructured Usefulness for TF

24. Sample Page 06/07/09 Source: Global Futures Forum

31. GW Forecast of Emerging Technologies (cont.) 06/07/09 Source: www.gwforecast.gwu.edu

33. Importance to S&T 06/07/09

34. Importance to Economy 06/07/09

42. Nominal Group Process 06/07/09 Pose question or problem Select experts Arrange meeting Explain purpose Explain process Pose problem or question Moderator leads discussion Each idea in turn Non-judgmental Each expert given chance to explain their idea Not justify In silence In rotation Each expert records an idea on a chart or wall board for all to see All ideas recorded Additional ideation encouraged In silence (20 minutes) Experts record all the ideas or solutions they can come up with Break Moderator explains rating system In silence Each expert rates each of the ideas Moderator summarizes results

51. Hub & Spoke Model 06/07/09 First order Impacts Second Order Impacts Third Order Impacts Event or Trend

52. Example of Impact Analysis (partial) 06/07/09 Source: Vanston, TFI

54. Hub & Spoke Model 06/07/09 First order Impacts Second Order Impacts Third Order Impacts Event or Trend 0.5 1 0.3 0.15

63. Morphological Analysis Process 06/07/09 Potential Future State or Existing State Sub-states Potential Ways to Achieve Sub-state

64. Example 06/07/09 Source: Bright

65. Example 06/07/09 Source: Bright

66. Example 06/07/09 Source: Bright

72. Relevance Tree - Morphological Analysis 06/07/09

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