Decision Support Systems for evacuation planning: supply, assignment and routing, di Giuseppe Musolino, Antonio Polimeni, Antonino Vitetta

Decision Support System for evacuation planning: supply, assignment and routing Giuseppe Musolino, Antonio Polimeni, Antonino Vitetta, [email_address] , [email_address] , [email_address] UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI MEDITERRANEA DI REGGIO CALABRIA Dipartimento di Informatica, Matematica, Elettronica e Trasporti Facoltà di Ingegneria Sesta Conferenza Nazionale in Informatica e Pianificazione Urbana e Territoriale 13 - 15 September 2010, Potenza - Italy

STRUCTURE OF THE PRESENTATION ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Natural Man-made DANGEROUS EVENT Introduction

DANGEROUS EVENT EVOLUTION t 0 emergency planning activities start t 1 occurrence of forthcoming disaster is notified or supposed forecasted t 2 event occurs and starts its effects t 3 system vulnerability starts to change t 4 system vulnerability stops changing Introduction DANGEROUS EVENT

Emergency Conditions Ordinary Conditions Ord Cond ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],OPERATIVE STAGE EVACUATION PLANNING Application ACTIVITIES IN RESPONSE TO DANGEROUS EVENT

t A first evacuated vehicle departure time t P last evacuated vehicle arrival time EVACUATION CAN’T START RESIDUAL RISK Introduction ACTIVITIES IN RESPONSE TO DANGEROUS EVENT t A t P t 1 t 4 t 0 time t 3

II TARGET minimize t p - t a I TARGET t a , t p < t 3 t A first evacuated vehicle departure time t P last evacuated vehicle arrival time Introduction ACTIVITIES IN RESPONSE TO DANGEROUS EVENT t A t P t 1 t 4 t 0 time t 3 t P

PROBLEM Introduction path choice ACTIVITIES IN RESPONSE TO DANGEROUS EVENT

path choice driver external authority PROBLEM DECISION MAKER Introduction ACTIVITIES IN RESPONSE TO DANGEROUS EVENT

path choice driver external authority PROBLEM DECISION MAKER SUPPORT driver’s experience GPS navigator Introduction ACTIVITIES IN RESPONSE TO DANGEROUS EVENT

path choice driver external authority PROBLEM DECISION MAKER SUPPORT driver’s experience GPS navigator DSS (Decision Support System) Introduction ACTIVITIES IN RESPONSE TO DANGEROUS EVENT

path choice driver external authority PROBLEM DECISION MAKER SUPPORT driver’s experience GPS navigator DSS (Decision Support System) and Tools Introduction ACTIVITIES IN RESPONSE TO DANGEROUS EVENT

Introduction DSS EVACUATION PLANNING OPERATIVE STAGE

Introduction DSS EVACUATION PLANNING OPERATIVE STAGE LITERATURE REVIEW DSS FOR SUPPLY- DEMAND DSS FOR PATH/ROUTE

ORDINARY CONDITIONS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],SUPPLY-DEMAND INTERACTION ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Introduction SUPPLY-DEMAND

EMERGENCY CONDITIONS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],SUPPLY-DEMAND INTERACTION ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Introduction SUPPLY-DEMAND

EMERGENCY CONDITIONS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],SUPPLY-DEMAND INTERACTION Introduction SUPPLY-DEMAND Departure time schedule Supply modifications

Introduction ,[object Object],[object Object],(Vehicle Routing Problem) (Shortest Path Problem) The path design problem for emergency vehicle in road evacuation (during a dangerous event) to take weak users, is faced with two approaches: PATH / ROUTE DESIGN

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],DSS Decision Support System (DSS) SUPPLY-DEMAND

Decision Support System (DSS) SUPPLY-DEMAND: user needs indicators LINK INDICATORS: L1=flow, L2=average speed, L3=flow/capacity, L4=queue length; DEMAND-SUPPLY INTERACTION INDICATORS: DS1=average travel distance per vehicle, DS2=total travel distance, DS3=average travel time per vehicle, DS4=total travel time, DS5=average speed on the network; SYSTEM EVOLUTION INDICATORS: E1=number of vehicles on the network, E2=number of vehicles that reach each destination; --=not-available or not-stated DSS L1 L2 L3 L4 DS1 DS2 DS3 DS4 DS5 E1 E2 Emme/2 X X X -- X X X X -- -- -- TransCAD X X X -- -- -- X X -- -- -- MT Model X X X -- -- X -- X -- -- -- VISUM X X X -- X X X X X X -- OmniTRANS X X X X -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Cube Avenue X X X X -- -- -- -- X X -- DYNASMART X X X X X X X X X X -- TransModeler X X X X X X X X X -- -- DynaMIT X X -- X -- -- -- X -- -- -- DSS SICURO X X -- X -- -- X X -- X X AIMSUN X X X X X X X X X X -- INTEGRATION X X X -- X X X X X X X MITSIMLab X X -- -- X X X X X -- -- PARAMICS X X X X -- -- -- -- -- -- -- VISSIM X X X X X X X X X -- --

Decision Support System (DSS) SUPPLY-DEMAND: user needs input 1=Key parameters can be user-defined, 2=Integration with other models, 3=Integration with other databases and Geographic Information System, 4=Graphical Network Builder, 5=Graphical Animation of Results, --=not-available or not-stated DSS 1 2 3 4 5 Emme/2 X X X X X TransCAD -- -- X -- X MT Model X -- -- -- X VISUM X X X X X OmniTRANS X X X X -- Cube Avenue X X X -- X DYNASMART X X -- -- X TransModeler X X X -- X DynaMIT -- X -- -- -- DSS SICURO X -- -- X X AIMSUN X X X X X INTEGRATION X -- -- -- X MITSIMLab X -- -- -- X PARAMICS X X -- X X VISSIM X X X X X

SUPPLY-DEMAND: user needs ITS functions Decision Support System (DSS) 1=Signal optimization, 2=Co-ordinated traffic signals, 3=Adaptive traffic signals, 4=Priority to public transport vehicles, 5=Ramp metering, 6=Zone access control, 7=Variable message signs, 8=Route guidance, 9=Parking guidance, 10=Public transport information, 11=Support for pedestrians and cyclists, 12=Probe vehicles, 13=Vehicle detectors, 14=Contraflow/lane reversal, 15=Incidents, --=not-available or not-stated DSS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Emme2 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- TransCAD X -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- MT Model -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- VISUM -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- OmniTRANS X X X X -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Cube Avenue X X -- -- -- -- X -- -- -- -- -- -- -- X DYNASMART -- X X -- X -- X X -- -- -- -- -- -- X TransModeler -- -- X -- X -- X -- -- -- X -- -- -- X DynaMIT X X -- -- X X X X X X -- X -- -- X DSS SICURO -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- X -- -- -- X AIMSUN X X X X X X X X -- -- -- -- X -- X INTEGRATION X X X X X -- X X -- X -- X X -- -- MITSIMLab X X X X X -- X X -- -- -- X X -- X PARAMICS -- X X X X X X X -- -- -- X X -- -- VISSIM -- X X X X X X X -- X X X X -- --

APPROACH: STA=Static Traffic Assignment, meso=mesoscopic Dynamic Traffic Assignment, micro=microscopic Dynamic Traffic Assignment; LINK/NODE: V=cost function specification can be chosen among different given alternatives or it can be user defined, F=cost function specification is fixed, --=not-stated; PATH CHOICE: S=stochastic, D=deterministic, PT=pre-trip, ER=en-route; ASSIGNMENT: NL=network loading, UE=user equilibrium, SO=system optimum, WD=within day dynamic Decision Support System (DSS) SUPPLY-DEMAND: modelling features

USER NEEDS MODELLING FEATURES DSS Decision Support System (DSS) simulate the problem for a large number of weak users ability of the tools to solve the problem according to its size PATH/ROUTE DESIGN generation of optimal sequences of weak users according to several criteria kind of problem solved by the tools; possibility to define the link cost function travel time estimation for emergency vehicles and network performance outputs in terms of service and network indicators low computation time computation time

DSS and Tools: one to one TOOLS NAME SOFTWARE or LIBRARY SOLVED PROBLEM COST FUNCTION DEFINED BY THE USERS Decision Support System (DSS) PATH/ROUTE DESIGN

PATH/ROUTE DESIGN DSS and Tools: one to many U: Unlimited TSP: Travelling Salesman Problem CVRTW: Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows ND: Non-defined B&B: Branch & Bound; B&C: Branch & Cut G: Genetic; MA: Memetic Algorithm TS: Tabù Search; NSH: Non-specified heuristic Decision Support System (DSS) TOOLS NAME SOFTWARE or LIBRARY PROBLEM SIZE SOLVED PROBLEM COST FUNCTION DEFINED BY THE USERS ALGORITHM OUTPUT TYPE

Emergency Conditions Ordinary Conditions Ord Cond ACTIVITIES IN RESPONSE TO DANGEROUS EVENT ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],OPERATIVE STAGE EVACUATION PLANNING Application

Emergency Conditions Ordinary Conditions Ord Cond ACTIVITIES IN RESPONSE TO DANGEROUS EVENT OPERATIVE STAGE EVACUATION PLANNING Application

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],CHARACTERISTICS Application

Procedure STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5 STEP 6 SUPPLY DESIGN EVACUATION DEMAND DEMAND-SUPPLY INTERACTION INDICATORS/ANALYSIS RISK ASSESSMENT HISTORICAL DEMAND time LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND Application SUPPLY-DEMAND

STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5 STEP 6 10 MIN SUPPLY DESIGN EVACUATION DEMAND DEMAND-SUPPLY INTERACTION INDICATORS/ANALYSIS RISK ASSESSMENT HISTORICAL DEMAND 5 MIN time LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND 5 MIN 10 MIN Application Procedure SUPPLY-DEMAND

STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5 STEP 6 15 MIN SUPPLY DESIGN EVACUATION DEMAND DEMAND-SUPPLY INTERACTION INDICATORS/ANALYSIS RISK ASSESSMENT HISTORICAL DEMAND 10 MIN time LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND 5 MIN 10 MIN 5 MIN 5 MIN 15 MIN 10 MIN Application Procedure SUPPLY-DEMAND

STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5 STEP 6 SUPPLY DESIGN EVACUATION DEMAND DEMAND-SUPPLY INTERACTION INDICATORS/ANALYSIS RISK ASSESSMENT HISTORICAL DEMAND time LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND 5 MIN 10 MIN 5 MIN 5 MIN 1 MIN 1 MIN 16 MIN 11 MIN 16 MIN 11 MIN Application Procedure SUPPLY-DEMAND

STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5 STEP 6 SUPPLY DESIGN EVACUATION DEMAND DEMAND-SUPPLY INTERACTION INDICATORS/ANALYSIS RISK ASSESSMENT HISTORICAL DEMAND time LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND 5 MIN 10 MIN 5 MIN 5 MIN 1 MIN 1 MIN 5 MIN 10 MIN 26 MIN 16 MIN 26 MIN 16 MIN 26 MIN 16 MIN Application Procedure SUPPLY-DEMAND

EVACUATION DEMAND SUPPLY ONE TO ONE (Shortest Path) SHORTEST PATHS between every o/d ONE TO MANY (Routing) OPTIMAL ROUTE Application Procedure PATH/ROUTE DESIGN

STEP 1 STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 6 SUPPLY SIMULATION ANALYSIS EVACUATION DEMAND time LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND 66 Application Procedure PATH/ROUTE DESIGN

STEP 1 STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 6 SUPPLY SIMULATION ANALYSIS EVACUATION DEMAND time LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND 1 MIN 1 MIN 66 Application Procedure PATH/ROUTE DESIGN

STEP 1 STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 6 SUPPLY SIMULATION ANALYSIS EVACUATION DEMAND time LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND 1 MIN 1 MIN 1 MIN 10 MIN 66 Application Procedure PATH/ROUTE DESIGN

STEP 1 STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 6 SUPPLY SIMULATION ANALYSIS EVACUATION DEMAND time LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND 1 MIN 1 MIN 1 MIN 10 MIN 5 MIN 15 MIN 66 Application Procedure PATH/ROUTE DESIGN

STEP 1 STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 6 SUPPLY SIMULATION ANALYSIS EVACUATION DEMAND time LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND 1 MIN 1 MIN 1 MIN 10 MIN 5 MIN 15 MIN 66 MIN 1 MIN 40 MIN Application Procedure 8 MIN PATH/ROUTE DESIGN

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Conclusion

path choice PROBLEM Introduction

path choice driver PROBLEM DECISION MAKER Introduction

path choice driver PROBLEM DECISION MAKER SUPPORT DSS (Decision Support System) DSS (Decision Support System) for external authority Introduction

Decision Support Systems for evacuation planning: supply, assignment and routing, di Giuseppe Musolino, Antonio Polimeni, Antonino Vitetta

Recomendados

Recomendados

Más contenido relacionado

Similar a Decision Support Systems for evacuation planning: supply, assignment and routing, di Giuseppe Musolino, Antonio Polimeni, Antonino Vitetta

Similar a Decision Support Systems for evacuation planning: supply, assignment and routing, di Giuseppe Musolino, Antonio Polimeni, Antonino Vitetta (20)

Más de Informatica e Pianificazione Urbana e Territoriale

Más de Informatica e Pianificazione Urbana e Territoriale (20)

Decision Support Systems for evacuation planning: supply, assignment and routing, di Giuseppe Musolino, Antonio Polimeni, Antonino Vitetta