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Climate Change Events in Myanmar and Future Scenarios mod

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May Khin Chaw, Director, DMH, Ministry of Transport and Communications at IPCC outreach event in Myanmar, 30 May 2019

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Climate Change Events in Myanmar and Future Scenarios mod

  1. 1. Outreach Events on the IPCC Role, Activities and Findings Department of Meteorology & Hydrology 30-31 May, 2019. Climate Change Events in Myanmar and Future Scenarios
  2. 2. Meteorological disasters Tropical revolving storms Strong winds & Heavy rains Tornadoes Storm surges Drought • River floods • Flash floods • Inundations • Very low River water levels • Very low ground water levels • Heavy rain spells • Droughts • Earthquake • Land slide • Tsunami
  3. 3. Myanmar frequently hit by • Cyclone • Storm surge • Temperature. • Drought • Extremely rain. • Strong wind. Recent Natural Disasters • 2006 Apr Cyclone Mala • 2008 May Cyclone Nargis • 2010 Oct Cyclone GIRI • 2011 Mar Tarlay Earthquake • 2011 Heavy Rain & Floods • 2011 Oct Pakokku Flash Flood • 2012 Flood • 2013 Heavy Monsoon and flood • 2015 Flood & Landslide • 2015 Tropical cyclone “Komen” & floods • 2016 Tropical cyclone “Roanu” & floods • 2017 “Maarutha”, “Mora” & floods • 2018 Strong Monsoon Intensity & Heavy rains & floods in Southern areas of Myanmar • 2019 (43) times new records for Day Temp
  4. 4. World Map of the Global Climate Risk Index (1997-2016) Source: Germanwatch
  5. 5. Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events of Myanmar Due to Climate Change  Climate Change causes extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events of Myanmar. • Increase extreme high temperatures was recorded 47.2 °C on 14.5.2010 at Myinmu and other Highest Temperature were recorded at 20 stations during May of 2010. • Untimely rain as well as heavy rain within short duration conditions were observed throughout the recent years. Heavy fall of (29) inches within 24 hours at Taungkok and (10) to (15) inches of other Rakhine areas in July and August of 2011
  6. 6. • At 20 January 2011, heavy Snowfall in Panwa Valley, Northern Kachin State. The snow came down like heavy rain, causing a number of buildings to collapse. • Rain induced landslides were observed as the secondary disasters in hilly regions of Myanmar in 2015. Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events of Myanmar Due to Climate Change (Cont..)
  7. 7. • The depression formed in post monsoon period, October 2011, crossed to Myanmar and Bangladesh border area near Maungdaw and Cox’s Bazar. Under the influence of this depression, mountain torrent with heavy rain at Pakokku District resulted damages of six bridges including Shwechaung Bridge, and 59 death toll and 47 are missing. Moreover, cattle, crops, farm land and buildings are destroyed by the flood Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events of Myanmar Due to Climate Change (Cont..)
  8. 8. • Severe flood and Heavy Rain because of coincidence with Extreme Rainfall and Cyclone KOMEN, July 2015. Because of this severe flood, 1.6 million people caused almost 120 deaths, and damaged agriculture and infrastructure. Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events of Myanmar Due to Climate Change (Cont..)
  9. 9. Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events of Myanmar Due to Climate Change (Cont..) In 2016 ❖ 2016 flood cause is more sever than 2015 on Ayeyarwady river, but Chindwin river is less. 2016 Cyclone Roanu
  10. 10. • During the monsoon season of 2017, the flood events occurred at 8 major rivers out of 12 major rivers. The flood frequencies of 2017 were very similar with the flood frequencies of 2016 at Ayeyarwady and Chindwin rivers but other small rivers were more than the flood frequencies of 2016 Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events of Myanmar Due to Climate Change (Cont..)
  11. 11. Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events of Myanmar Due to Climate Change (Cont..) June 18, 2018. Flooding in southern Myanmar has caused a landslide at a famed Buddhist pagoda, submerged homes and displaced hundreds of people
  12. 12. Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events of Myanmar Due to Climate Change (Cont..) As a result of High temperature and less rain, drought, in Inlay Lake, Myanmar was totally dried out in 2010 is one of the evidence of Climate Change in Myanmar Thousands of people especially from ountryside and remote villages are suffering from drought. With the drought, even simple everyday living becomes increasingly difficulties. All small and big lakes are drying out and people have to face worsening shortage of clean and drinking water
  13. 13. ❖ Myanmar has about 2300 kilometers long coastline, which can be divided into three parts as Rakhine, Deltaic and Tanintharyi coasts. ❖ The coastal areas are prone to cyclones and associated strong wind, heavy rain and storm surge. ❖ Cyclones are more intense and more frequent in the recent years due to the Climate Change effect. Therefore, there is need to find out better solutions for the management of climate change effects in Myanmar.
  14. 14. How changes on Myanmar SW Monsoon???
  15. 15. Observed Climate Changes in Myanmar ❖ SW Monsoon onset dates are late since 1987 as comparing with normal date. ❖ 30 years (1981-2010) normal onset date is 6th June. ❖ 2018 SW monsoon onset date was 3rd June
  16. 16. Observed Climate Changes in Myanmar ❖ Trend line significantly showed that withdrawal dates are earlier than normal ❖ 30 years (1981-2010) normal withdrawal date is 3rd October. ❖ 2018 SW monsoon withdrawal date was 4th October
  17. 17. Observed Climate Changes in Myanmar ❖ Trend line significantly showed that SW monsoon durations are down trend. ❖ 30 years (1961-1990) normal SW monsoon date is (144)days. ❖ 30 years (1981-2010) normal SW monsoon date is (121)days. ❖ Shorter SW monsoon duration longer hot season with high maximum temperature more rain over a shorter time and subsequently flash flood
  18. 18. Observed Maximum Temperature Changes in Myanmar ❖ Maximum temperatures of APRIL in 2019 are higher than in 2017 and 2018 and area also expanded. ❖ According to 2019 observational Data, new recorded maximum temperature were observed at (41) times at (26) townships. ❖ Day temperatures increased 1.7 ˚C above average maximum temperature in March, April and May in the whole country
  19. 19. 30.5 30.7 30.9 31.1 31.3 31.5 31.7 31.9 32.1 32.3 32.5 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 MaximumTemperature(˚C) Year Annual Maximum Temperature (˚C) during 1981-2010 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Annualrainfall(mm) Year Annual Rainfall (mm) during 1981-2010 Annual Rainfalls: Increasing trend in the whole country Annual Day Temperatures (˚C): Increasing trend in the whole country
  20. 20. Future ????? Climate Scenario Change from Baseline RCP 4.5 Climate Scenario Change from Baseline RCP 8.5
  21. 21. ▪ 40 GCM Models and 13 RCM (CORDEX ) Models for Climate Scenario with SimCLIM. ▪ A guide to Representative Concentration Pathways The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) is the latest generation of scenarios that provide input to climate models.
  22. 22. Climate Scenario Change from Baseline RCP 4.5 Climate Scenario Change from Baseline RCP 8.5 Precipitation % Departure
  23. 23. Climate Scenario Change from Baseline RCP 4.5 Climate Scenario Change from Baseline RCP 8.5 Maximum Temperature Anomaly (°C )
  24. 24. Climate Scenario Change from Baseline RCP 4.5 Climate Scenario Change from Baseline RCP 8.5 Minimum Temperature Anomaly (°C )
  25. 25. Climate Scenario Change from Baseline –Precipitation (% )RCP 4.5 0.8 1.8 2.8 3.8 4.8 5.8 6.8 7.8 2040 2060 2080 2100 Precipitation(%Departure) Ayeyar Bago East Bago West Chin Kachin Kayah Kayin Magway Mandalay Mon Naypyitaw Council Rakhine Sagaing (Lower) Sagaing (Upper) Shan (East) Shan (North) Shan (South) Tanintharyi Yangon Year
  26. 26. Climate Scenario Change from Baseline Maximum Temperature Anomaly(°C )RCP 4.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 2040 2060 2080 2100 MaximumTemperatureAnomaly(°C) Ayeyar Bago East Bago West Chin Kachin Kayah Kayin Magway Mandalay Mon Naypyitaw Council Rakhine Sagaing (Lower) Sagaing (Upper) Shan (East) Shan (North) Shan (South) Tanintharyi Yangon Year
  27. 27. Climate Scenario Change from Baseline Minimum Temperature (°C )RCP 4.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2040 2060 2080 2100 MinimumTemperatureAnomaly(°C) Ayeyar Bago East Bago West Chin Kachin Kayah Kayin Magway Mandalay Mon Naypyitaw Council Rakhine Sagaing (Lower) Sagaing (Upper) Shan (East) Shan (North) Shan (South) Tanintharyi Yangon Year
  28. 28. Climate Scenario Change from Baseline –Precipitation (% )RCP 8.5 0.8 2.8 4.8 6.8 8.8 10.8 12.8 14.8 16.8 18.8 2040 2060 2080 2100 Precipitation(%Departure) Ayeyar Bago East Bago West Chin Kachin Kayah Kayin Magway Mandalay Mon Naypyitaw Council Rakhine Sagaing (Lower) Sagaing (Upper) Shan (East) Shan (North) Shan (South) Tanintharyi Yangon Year
  29. 29. Climate Scenario Change from Baseline Maximum Temperature (°C )RCP 8.5 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.8 2040 2060 2080 2100 MaximumTemperatureAnomaly(°C) Ayeyar Bago East Bago West Chin Kachin Kayah Kayin Magway Mandalay Mon Naypyitaw Council Rakhine Sagaing (Lower) Sagaing (Upper) Shan (East) Shan (North) Shan (South) Tanintharyi Yangon Year
  30. 30. Climate Scenario Change from Baseline Minimum Temperature (°C )RCP 8.5 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.8 2040 2060 2080 2100 MinimumTemperatureAnomaly(°C) Ayeyar Bago East Bago West Chin Kachin Kayah Kayin Magway Mandalay Mon Naypyitaw Council Rakhine Sagaing (Lower) Sagaing (Upper) Shan (East) Shan (North) Shan (South) Tanintharyi Yangon Year
  31. 31. Vulnerability of areas and Regions/States in intensity and severity of extreme weather events Climate Change Vulnerability of the main socio-economic sectors due to extreme weather events Myanmar’s Vulnerability to Climate Change
  32. 32. Sectors need to Climate Change adaptation National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) • Priorities sectors for climate adaptation – Agriculture – Early warning – Forest – Public health – Water resources – Coastal Zone – Energy and Industry – Biodiversity
  33. 33. Relevant Regulatory Framework • Constitution (2008) • Environmental Policy (1994) • Myanmar Agenda 21 (1997) • National Sustainable Development Strategy –NSDS (2009) • NAPA (2012) • Environmental Conservation Law (2012) • Environmental Conservation Rules (2014) • Environmental Quality Guidelines (2015) • Relevant Sectoral Laws and Rules • Intended National Determined Contribution INDC • Second National Communication(on going) • Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (2016)
  34. 34. Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (2016) ❖ Addressing climate change requires a strategic approach that involves all sectors of society. ❖ Myanmar National Climate Change Strategy and its Action Plans, adopted in 2016. Sectors ▪ Water • Mining • Forestry • Public Health • Energy • Transport and infrastructure • Urban development and Construction • Industrial and commercial development • Etc.
  35. 35. Myanmar National Climate Change Policy, Strategy & Action Plan (NCCP and MCCSAP 2017-2030) Six Sectors 1.Climate Smart Agriculture, Fisheries and Livestock for Food Security 2. Sustainable Management of Natural Resources for Healthy Eco-System 3. Resilient and Low Carbon Energy, Transport and Industrial Systems for Sustainable Growth 4. Resilient, Inclusive, and Sustainable cities and towns where people can live and thrive 5. Climate Risk Management for People’s Health and Well-being 6. Education, Science and Technology for a Resilient Society ❖ The Myanmar Climate Change Strategy & Action Plan (MCCSAP) 2017- 2030 presents a roadmap to guide Myanmar’s strategic responses to address climate related risks and opportunities over the next 15 years and beyond. ❖ The Strategy and Action Plan aims to support key actors in their decision making at the national and local level to respond to the challenges and opportunities associated with climate change.
  36. 36. Workshop on “Catalyzing the Integration of Climate Change into University Curriculum in Myanmar”, 28th August, 2018, Naypyitaw, August 30, 2018 Organized by LUCCC and Hosted by ECD

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