Mark Howden, Vice-Chair of the IPCC WGII

1. Food security and adaptation
Prof Mark Howden
Vice Chair Working Group II
Australian National University

2. Climate changes affecting crops differently
IPCC 2014

3. More negative and less positive over time
IPCC 2014
Climate changes affecting crops differently

4. Climate change impacts on Pacific crops
Bell and Taylor 2015

5. Yield variability likely to increase
IPCC 2014

6. Food value chains: storage
• Increased need for postharvest drying,
refrigeration etc
• Potential shorter shelf life of perishable products
due to changes in product composition
• Local level: Farmers individual and collective
storage infrastructures
– flexible and cost-effective storage systems
• Global level: ongoing consideration of governance
options for food reserves
Rivera-Ferre (2014)

7. Value chain: distribution and exchange
• Damage to infrastructures (heat stress on roads,
increased frequency of floods)
• Ports damaged by flooding, extreme events:
fisheries, trade
• Decline in local production (or increased variability
in this) may reduce household capacity to engage
in traditional forms of exchange
• At the regional, national, global level, trade remains
a major factor in managing projected food security
issues
– institutional issues will continue to need attention
through WTO and other mechanisms
– shipping
IPCC 2014

8. Impacts, adaptation and barriers
“Barriers include access to
financial, technological, and
human resources; cultural and
social acceptability; political
and legal frameworks; the
emphasis on island
development as opposed to
sustainability; a focus on short-
term climate variability rather
than long-term climate change;
and community preferences for
‘hard’ adaptation measures
rather than ‘soft’ ones”
IPCC 2014

9. Thankyou
Prof Mark Howden
ANU Climate Change Institute
mark.howden@anu.edu.au
+61 2 6125 7266
Vice Chair, IPCC Working Group II

10. Dimensions of food security
FOOD SECURITY
Accessibility
Availability
Utilisation
Stability
FAO, GECAFS
Food availability is determined by the physical quantities of
food produced, stored, processed, distributed, and exchanged