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Global Warming of 1.5 ºC - Do We Still Have Time- Outreach
Event on IPCC Work and Findings, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
16-17 Ap...
Emission
inventories
The Physical
Science Basis
The Synthesis
Report
Climate Change
Impacts,
Adaptation and
Vulnerability
...
• Enhance participation of developing country experts
• Deepen engagement between Working Groups
• Strengthen links betwee...
Special Report on Climate Change and Land
(SRCCL) Outline
Chapter 1: Framing and Context
Chapter 2: Land–Climate interacti...
History
2015 - 41st Session of the IPCC (Nairobi, Kenya): The Panel asked
IPCC Secretariat to invite Member States and Obs...
History
2016 - Decision adopted by the Panel at 43rd session of the IPCC:
To prepare a Special Report on climate change, d...
Scoping the content of the Special Report
To inform the Scoping Meeting on this Special Report, a questionnaire
was sent t...
The issues in-depth
The Scientific Steering Committee also held in-depth web conferences
with:
• UN Convention on Combatti...
Priority areas identified in the questionnaire included:
–Drivers of desertification, land degradation, changes in GHG
flu...
Scoping meeting in Dublin, Ireland (2017)
Nominations for 458 experts were received.
Final participant list included 69 no...
• Structured bottom-up process: no draft outline to start the meeting
Scoping meeting in Dublin, Ireland (2017)
• Structured bottom-up process: no draft outline to start the meeting
Day 1 to 3 - Themes identified:
• Climate change imp...
• Outline emerged over the course of the week through interactive series of
discussions
Days 4 and 5:
Refine the topics an...
Selecting authors for the Special Report
Nominations were sought for Authors and Review Editors for each
Chapter.
640 nomi...
Selecting authors for the Special Report
Timeline
Sustainable development goals(SDG’s)
17
Special Report Outline
Agreed at 45th session of the IPCC in Guadalajara, Mexico (March 2017)
Summary for Policy Makers
Te...
Previous IPCC reports
Previous IPCC reports have made reference to
land and its role in the climate system. Threats
to agr...
UNCCD reports
The UNCCD report (2014) discusses land
degradation from the prism of
desertification. It devotes due attenti...
In FAO report
In the FAO reports, land degradation is
discussed in relation to ecosystem goods
and services, and land degr...
Previous IPBES report
The IPBES assessment (2018) combines
biodiversity drivers, land degradation and
desertification, foc...
• Socio-economic, biogeochemical, and biophysical interactions between climate change
and desertification, land degradatio...
• Climate change and variability, including extremes, that influence desertification, land
degradation, food security, sus...
• The specific nature of desertification
• Status, current trends and future projections of desertification linked to clim...
• Processes that lead to degradation and their biophysical, socio-economic, and cultural
drivers across multiple temporal ...
• Framing and Context: food and nutrition security (availability, access, utilization, stability,
affordability), food sys...
• Combined and interactive effects between desertification, land degradation, food security
and GHG fluxes, and scenarios
...
• Risks arising from interaction of climate change with desertification, land degradation,
food security and other develop...
Sustainable development
SDG1,SDG2,SDG7,SDG8
SRCCL
Chapter1
Climate
Land
Desertification
Chapter 3
Land
degradation
Chapter...
Planetary Boundary
GHG Fluxes
What is new in SRCCL
Compared to these previous IPCC reports, the
SRCCL offers a more integrated analysis as it
embraces m...
What is new in SRCCL
The SRCCL also looks at land degradation from
a human food security perspective and refers to
the str...
What is new in SRCCL
It looks at incentives related to market,
institutions that can trigger positive impacts
between clim...
What is new in SRCCL
As the SRCCL is cross-policy it provides the
opportunity to address a number of challenges in
an inte...
Asia Sub regions
Climate Hazards in
AR6
Heat wave
Drought
Warming trend
Mean wind decrease
Severe storms
Radiation decrease at surface
Dry ...
Contributing author from Mongolia
for preparing SOD of Chapter 12
38
Chapter 12: Chapter outline
12.1. Framing
12.2. Methodological approach
12.3. Climate hazard metrics by sector
12.3.1 Long...
Thank you
40
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The Climate Change and Land -findings from the Fifth Assessment Report and updates on the Special Report on Climate Change and Land

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Mohammad Rahimi, IPCC Author

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The Climate Change and Land -findings from the Fifth Assessment Report and updates on the Special Report on Climate Change and Land

  1. 1. Global Warming of 1.5 ºC - Do We Still Have Time- Outreach Event on IPCC Work and Findings, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 16-17 April 2019 The Climate Change and Land - findings from the fifth assessment report and updates on the special report on Climate Change and Land Dr. Mohammad Rahimi Semnan University, Iran IPCC LA(SREX,SRCCL,AR6/WGI)
  2. 2. Emission inventories The Physical Science Basis The Synthesis Report Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Mitigation of Climate Change April 2021 April 2022October 2021 July 2021 Global warming of 1.5 o C Oct. 2018 Sept. 2019 Aug. 2019 Land Oceans and cryosphere IPCC Sixth Assessment (AR6) Cities and Climate Change Science ConferenceMarch 2018 May 2018 Expert Meeting on Short Lived Climate Forcers May 2018 Expert Meeting on Assessing Climate Information for Regions Talanoa dialogue UNFCCC Global stocktake 2023 UNFCCC Some overarching preliminary aspects for the Synthesis Report • Global Stocktake • Interaction among emissions, climate, risks and development pathways • Economic and social costs and benefits of mitigation and adaptation in the context of development pathways • Adaptation and mitigation actions in the context of sustainable development • Finance and means of support May 2019 * Dates are subject to change
  3. 3. • Enhance participation of developing country experts • Deepen engagement between Working Groups • Strengthen links between high-level scenarios and the concrete steps required to mitigate climate change • Increase policy relevance and neutrality by incorporating inputs from business, industry, finance and other stakeholders • Enhance the relevance for policymakers charged with following through decisions made under the Framework Convention • Solutions focus: connect to the SDGs and to domestic challenges including job creation, health, innovation and technology development, energy access and poverty alleviation Some priorities of the IPCC Bureau for the Sixth Assessment Cycle
  4. 4. Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL) Outline Chapter 1: Framing and Context Chapter 2: Land–Climate interactions Chapter 3: Desertification Chapter 4: Land Degradation Chapter 5: Food Security Chapter 6: Interlinkages between desertification, land degradation, food security and GHG fluxes: synergies, trade-offs and integrated response options Chapter 7: Risk management and decision making in relation to sustainable development
  5. 5. History 2015 - 41st Session of the IPCC (Nairobi, Kenya): The Panel asked IPCC Secretariat to invite Member States and Observer Organizations to submit views on potential themes for Special Reports during the AR6 cycle. – July 2015: IPCC issued call for topics – Topics analysed by Co-Chairs and clustered by theme 2016 - 43rd Session of the IPCC (Nairobi, Kenya): Co-Chairs presented proposed Special Report themes to the Panel for discussion. – 9 clusters on different themes including land, oceans, cities – 2nd biggest cluster: 7 proposals relating to land
  6. 6. History 2016 - Decision adopted by the Panel at 43rd session of the IPCC: To prepare a Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. The scoping process may consider challenges and opportunities for both adaptation and mitigation. Photo by IISD/ENB | Kiara Worth
  7. 7. Scoping the content of the Special Report To inform the Scoping Meeting on this Special Report, a questionnaire was sent to IPCC Focal Points and Observer Organizations to consult on: –Highest priority questions, in the context of climate change, that the report should address –Gaps in previous IPCC assessments –Policy relevance of this Special Report for different regions
  8. 8. The issues in-depth The Scientific Steering Committee also held in-depth web conferences with: • UN Convention on Combatting Desertification (UNCCD) • Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) • Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES)
  9. 9. Priority areas identified in the questionnaire included: –Drivers of desertification, land degradation, changes in GHG fluxes and food security and their relation to climate change –How land based mitigation and adaptation measures can contribute to food security and resilience. –The feedback between sustainable land management choices and impacts on desertification, land degradation, food security, and GHG fluxes –The current state of land degradation, desertification, and food insecurity –Innovation and technology deployment –Local and regional impacts Scoping the content of the Special Report
  10. 10. Scoping meeting in Dublin, Ireland (2017) Nominations for 458 experts were received. Final participant list included 69 nominated experts and 31 Bureau Members, covering 46 nationalities. Africa Asia Europe North America Central America The Caribbean South America SW Pacific
  11. 11. • Structured bottom-up process: no draft outline to start the meeting Scoping meeting in Dublin, Ireland (2017)
  12. 12. • Structured bottom-up process: no draft outline to start the meeting Day 1 to 3 - Themes identified: • Climate change impacts and response options in relation to SDGs • Adaptation/mitigation interactions (synergies, trade-offs, co-benefits, side-effects) • Competition for land, including negative emissions • Coupled system dynamics: processes, scales • Emergent risks (e.g. security, migration, …) • Governance, management, decision-making • Water and soils Scoping meeting in Dublin, Ireland (2017)
  13. 13. • Outline emerged over the course of the week through interactive series of discussions Days 4 and 5: Refine the topics and themes into a report outline with chapter headings Bullets under each heading to provide meaningful guidance to authors Recommended maximum length of the Special Report (300 pages) Title agreed: Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems Scoping meeting in Dublin, Ireland (2017)
  14. 14. Selecting authors for the Special Report Nominations were sought for Authors and Review Editors for each Chapter. 640 nominations were received. IPCC Working Group Bureaux and the Co-Chairs of the Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories carried out the selection, taking into account: • Expertise • Geographic representation • Gender balance • Prior IPCC experience.
  15. 15. Selecting authors for the Special Report
  16. 16. Timeline
  17. 17. Sustainable development goals(SDG’s) 17
  18. 18. Special Report Outline Agreed at 45th session of the IPCC in Guadalajara, Mexico (March 2017) Summary for Policy Makers Technical Summary Chapter 1: Framing and Context Chapter 2: Land-Climate Interactions Chapter 3: Desertification Chapter 4: Land Degradation Chapter 5: Food Security Chapter 6: Interlinkages between desertification, land degradation, food security and GHG fluxes: Synergies, trade- offs and Integrated Response Options Chapter 7: Risk management and decision making in relation to sustainable development Boxes, Case Studies and FAQs
  19. 19. Previous IPCC reports Previous IPCC reports have made reference to land and its role in the climate system. Threats to agriculture and forestry, but also the role of land and forest management as a contributor to climate change have been documented since the IPCC Second Assessment Report with increasing focus, and especially so in the Special report on land use, land-use change and forestry
  20. 20. UNCCD reports The UNCCD report (2014) discusses land degradation from the prism of desertification. It devotes due attention to analyses on how land management can contribute to reversing the negative impacts of desertification and land degradation.
  21. 21. In FAO report In the FAO reports, land degradation is discussed in relation to ecosystem goods and services, and land degradation is analysed principally from a food security perspective.
  22. 22. Previous IPBES report The IPBES assessment (2018) combines biodiversity drivers, land degradation and desertification, focussing on poverty as a limiting factor, drawing attention to a world in peril in which resource scarcity conspires with biophysical and social vulnerability drivers to derail the attainment of sustainable development goals. The SRCCL complements these previous assessment reports, while keeping the IPCC- specific “climate lens”.
  23. 23. • Socio-economic, biogeochemical, and biophysical interactions between climate change and desertification, land degradation, food security and GHG fluxes • Additional and alternative demands for, and use of, land in the context of climate change, as well as socioeconomic and technological changes. • The contribution of this report in relation to reports by IPCC and other relevant institutions (for instance IPBES, UNCCD, FAO, etc.) • Key concepts and definitions including vulnerability assessments, adaptation limits, and residual risks • Treatment of uncertainties • Integrated storyline of report, chapter narrative, sequence, linkages Chapter 1: Framing and Context
  24. 24. • Climate change and variability, including extremes, that influence desertification, land degradation, food security, sustainable land management and GHG fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems • Terrestrial GHG fluxes in natural and managed ecosystems (e.g. soils, forests and other land cover types) and related stocks: methods, status, trends, projections, and drivers • Biophysical and non-GHG feedbacks and forcings on climate • Consequences for the climate system of land-based adaptation and mitigation options, including negative emissions Chapter 2: Land-Climate Interactions
  25. 25. • The specific nature of desertification • Status, current trends and future projections of desertification linked to climate change, globally and regionally • Climatic and anthropogenic direct and indirect drivers of desertification including extremes such as drought • Attribution: distinguishing between climatic- and human-induced changes • Desertification feedbacks to climate, including sand and dust storm • Climate-desertification interactions, including past observations and future projections • Observed and projected impacts of desertification on natural and human systems in a changing climate. This could include the role of aerosols and dust, impacts on ecosystem services and impacts on socio-ecological systems • Technological, socio-economic and policy responses to desertification under a changing climate including economic diversification, enabling conditions, co-benefits as well as limits to adaptation • Hotspots and case-studies Chapter 3: Desertification
  26. 26. • Processes that lead to degradation and their biophysical, socio-economic, and cultural drivers across multiple temporal and spatial scales • Linkages and feedbacks between land degradation and climate change, including extremes (e.g. floods and droughts), erosion, and their effects on ecosystems and livelihoods • Status, current trends and future projections of land degradation linked to climate change, globally and regionally • Attribution: distinguishing between climatic- and human-induced changes • Direct and indirect impacts of Climate Change on Land Degradation, Land Degradation on Climate Change, and reactive and proactive response options, such as land restoration, for key socio-ecological systems • Observed and projected impacts of land degradation on natural and human systems in a changing climate. This could include impacts on ecosystem services and impacts on socio-ecological systems • Integrated higher-level responses, e.g. sustainable land management (where possible related to the SDGs), including considerations of cost, incentives and barriers and limits to adaptation • Hotspots and case-studies Chapter 4: Land degradation
  27. 27. • Framing and Context: food and nutrition security (availability, access, utilization, stability, affordability), food systems (including trade and markets), farming systems including agroforestry, food-energy-water nexus, and the role of desertification and land degradation. • Status, current trends and future projections of food and nutrition security linked to climate change, globally and regionally • Attribution: distinguishing between climatic- and human-induced changes • Observed and projected impacts of climate change and variability, including extremes, on food and nutrition security, including food production, prices and livelihoods • Impacts of food and nutrition security on climate change • Responses in terms of adaptation considering the full range of options and their use, as well as limits to adaptation • GHG mitigation options associated with food supply and demand • The influence of land based mitigation options on food and nutritional security • Synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation (considering scales, linkages, and co-benefits), sustainable land management • Consequences of measures to enhance food and nutrition security for adaptation and mitigation in a changing climate • Hotspots and case-studies Chapter 5: Food Security
  28. 28. • Combined and interactive effects between desertification, land degradation, food security and GHG fluxes, and scenarios • Economic and social dimensions of response options including sustainable land management: synergies/trade-offs/side-effects/co-benefits • Impacts of land-based mitigation options on land degradation, desertification, food security, and ecosystems and their services (e.g. soil, fresh water, biodiversity) • Impacts of land-based adaptation options on land degradation, desertification, food security, ecosystems and their services and limits to adaptation • Land-based negative emissions (including the role of forests, soils and the use of biomass) and their role in balancing anthropogenic sources and sinks • Adaptation-mitigation interactions and co-benefits • Competition for land • Case-studies Chapter 6: Interlinkages between desertification, land degradation, food security and GHG fluxes: synergies, trade-offs and integrated response options
  29. 29. • Risks arising from interaction of climate change with desertification, land degradation, food security and other development pressures (.e.g. conflicts, migration) • Management responses to areas of substantive risk arising from climate change • Synergies and trade-offs of response options that affect sustainable development and climate change adaptation and mitigation • Governance, institutions and decision-making across multiple scales that advance adaptation, mitigation and sustainable land management in the context of desertification, land degradation and food security Chapter 7: Risk management and decision making in relation to sustainable development
  30. 30. Sustainable development SDG1,SDG2,SDG7,SDG8 SRCCL Chapter1 Climate Land Desertification Chapter 3 Land degradation Chapter 4 Food Secu Chapte Inter linkages Chapter6 Risk management Climate and land Interaction Chapter 2 Synergies and trade-offs
  31. 31. Planetary Boundary GHG Fluxes
  32. 32. What is new in SRCCL Compared to these previous IPCC reports, the SRCCL offers a more integrated analysis as it embraces multiple direct and indirect drivers of natural resource management (related to food, water and energy securities) which have not received sufficient analysis previously (e.g., in the AR5).
  33. 33. What is new in SRCCL The SRCCL also looks at land degradation from a human food security perspective and refers to the strong correlations between land degradation and poverty.
  34. 34. What is new in SRCCL It looks at incentives related to market, institutions that can trigger positive impacts between climate change, food access and biophysical drivers.
  35. 35. What is new in SRCCL As the SRCCL is cross-policy it provides the opportunity to address a number of challenges in an integrative way at the same time, and it progresses beyond other IPCC reports in having a much more comprehensive perspective on land.
  36. 36. Asia Sub regions
  37. 37. Climate Hazards in AR6 Heat wave Drought Warming trend Mean wind decrease Severe storms Radiation decrease at surface Dry trend Cold spell Wet trend Frost Dust and sandstorm Wildfire River flood Pluvial flood Lake and sea ice reduction Ocean and lake acidification Permafrost thawing Landslides Snow reduction Heavy snow Ice storm Snow avalanche solar radiation changes –this is a big concern in India Air pollution Hail storms Atmospheric CO2 decrease CO2 benefits across Asia (relevant for agriculture and ecosystems) and ocean acidification for coastal areas Sea level rise Coastal flood Coastal erosion
  38. 38. Contributing author from Mongolia for preparing SOD of Chapter 12 38
  39. 39. Chapter 12: Chapter outline 12.1. Framing 12.2. Methodological approach 12.3. Climate hazard metrics by sector 12.3.1 Long-duration climate hazards [ > decade] 12.3.2 medium duration climate hazards [ Months to decades] 12.3.3 Short duration climate hazards [<months] 12.4 Regional information on changing climate hazards 12.4.1 Africa 12.4.2 Asia 12.4.3 Australasia 12.4.4 Central and South America 12.4.5 Europe 12.4.6 North America 12.4.7 Small Islands 12.4.8 Oceans 12.4.9 Specific zones of impacts and risk [as defined in WGII] 12.5. Global perspective on climate hazards 12.5.1 Global synthesis of regional climate hazards 12.5.2 Climate hazards at different levels of changing global signals 12.6. Climate hazard information in climate services 12.6.1 Context of climate services 12.6.2 Assessment of the practice and products related to hazard information in climate 12.6.3 Region-specific methodologies in generating hazard information in climate 12.7. Uncertainties, knowledge gaps, and research needs Cross-Chapter box on climate services (+Ch1, Ch10, Atlas) FAQs
  40. 40. Thank you 40

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