- The document discusses economic data and forecasts from various sources that have been inaccurate and overly optimistic in recent years.
- It argues that expectations for equity, bond and GDP returns should be lowered going forward due to factors like high debt levels, aging demographics, and limited earnings growth potential.
- Alternative strategies like convertible bonds are presented as having better risk-adjusted returns than traditional stocks and bonds based on historical data. Combining convertible bonds with core bond holdings is suggested as one approach.
On October 15, 2015 Tracey McNaughton from UBS Wealth Management presented an educational webinar at netwealth. Tracey is Executive Director and Head of Investment Strategy, Global Investment Solutions at UBS.
Whether you’re an individual taxpayer, an avid investor or you’re involved in running a business we invite you to view this informative presentation by Dr Chris Caton.
Dr Caton provides a general global and domestic economic market overview, including all aspects of the world markets and factors which will affect all of Australia over the next 6 -12 months.
The presentation includes:
> Financial markets
> Interest rates
> Exchange rates
> The share market and
> The implications of the budget.
Take a look at this week’s Chart Book from Accuvest Global Advisors with updates on the following:
Global Financial Conditions
Global Equity Markets
Interest Rates and Fixed Income
The Economy
Major Currencies
Commodities
Investor Sentiment
Accuvest Global Advisors is a California based RIA and sub-advisor of the AdvisorShares Accuvest Global Opportunities ETF (ACCU) and the AdvisorShares Accuvest Global Long Short ETF (AGLS).
Markets coming to terms with Greek deal this week Hantec Markets
That noise you can hear is the sound of a collective sigh of relief. But maybe it’s as much one of relief for the avoidance of a Grexit, as it is relief that the whole sorry episode is coming to an end. The whole lot of them should hang their heads in shame. No-one has come out well from this.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
On October 15, 2015 Tracey McNaughton from UBS Wealth Management presented an educational webinar at netwealth. Tracey is Executive Director and Head of Investment Strategy, Global Investment Solutions at UBS.
Whether you’re an individual taxpayer, an avid investor or you’re involved in running a business we invite you to view this informative presentation by Dr Chris Caton.
Dr Caton provides a general global and domestic economic market overview, including all aspects of the world markets and factors which will affect all of Australia over the next 6 -12 months.
The presentation includes:
> Financial markets
> Interest rates
> Exchange rates
> The share market and
> The implications of the budget.
Take a look at this week’s Chart Book from Accuvest Global Advisors with updates on the following:
Global Financial Conditions
Global Equity Markets
Interest Rates and Fixed Income
The Economy
Major Currencies
Commodities
Investor Sentiment
Accuvest Global Advisors is a California based RIA and sub-advisor of the AdvisorShares Accuvest Global Opportunities ETF (ACCU) and the AdvisorShares Accuvest Global Long Short ETF (AGLS).
Markets coming to terms with Greek deal this week Hantec Markets
That noise you can hear is the sound of a collective sigh of relief. But maybe it’s as much one of relief for the avoidance of a Grexit, as it is relief that the whole sorry episode is coming to an end. The whole lot of them should hang their heads in shame. No-one has come out well from this.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
Greece negotiations and tier one US data key for traders this weekHantec Markets
Negotiations between Greece and its creditors (the IMF and the EU) continue, but as yet there is no deal. Greek claims
that a deal was close were swiftly rebuffed by the IMF, leaving Greece still without the final €7.2bn bailout tranche it
needs to pay €1.6bn of debt repayments owed to the IMF in June. However, it would appear a 5th June deadline (for a €300m repayment) is not actually a deadline at all. There is an IMF technicality that allows a lumping together of all
payments, to then be paid at the end of the month.
In December 2017 the US equity market entered what we call the “secular overvaluation zone” based on our main composite measure. That is only the 13th time it has happened since 1850, and the 7th time since 1905.
We explore and attempt to understand overvaluation episodes.
Swedbank's Global Economic Outlook, 2010 March 18Swedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
On 4th June 2015 the IBSA held a workshop on Developing Strategies for International Business.
Presentations: Global Economic Outlook; Treaty Access Limitations; Business Tax Incentives; Transfer Pricing & the Profit Split Method; The Post-Election Landscape for SMEs with Global Interests
Speakers: Jon Wingent (Close Brothers); Roy Saunders (IFS Consultants); Bernhard Gilbey (Squire Patton Boggs); Dr Emmanuel Llinares and Amanda Pletz (NERA Economic Consulting); Philip Baker QC (Field Court Tax Chambers).
Household debt, macroprudential policies, and financial stabilityFinanssivalvonta
Claudio Raddatz Kiefer's (Division Chief of the Global Financial Stability Analysis Division, IMF's Monetary and Capital Markets Department) presentation on FIN-FSA Conference on EU Regulation and Supervision – focusing on household indebtedness and macroprudential stability
Leslie Preston, an economist with TD Canada Trust, delivered an informative presentation at the Economic Briefing Breakfast held at lookout Point Country Club on October 20 2015. Members of the Welland/Pelham and Port Colborne-Wainfleet Chambers of Commerce as well as clients of TD and Durward Jones Barkwell took in the economic forecast for Canada and Niagara while enjoying a hearty breakfast served up by Lookout Point.
Greece negotiations and tier one US data key for traders this weekHantec Markets
Negotiations between Greece and its creditors (the IMF and the EU) continue, but as yet there is no deal. Greek claims
that a deal was close were swiftly rebuffed by the IMF, leaving Greece still without the final €7.2bn bailout tranche it
needs to pay €1.6bn of debt repayments owed to the IMF in June. However, it would appear a 5th June deadline (for a €300m repayment) is not actually a deadline at all. There is an IMF technicality that allows a lumping together of all
payments, to then be paid at the end of the month.
In December 2017 the US equity market entered what we call the “secular overvaluation zone” based on our main composite measure. That is only the 13th time it has happened since 1850, and the 7th time since 1905.
We explore and attempt to understand overvaluation episodes.
Swedbank's Global Economic Outlook, 2010 March 18Swedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
On 4th June 2015 the IBSA held a workshop on Developing Strategies for International Business.
Presentations: Global Economic Outlook; Treaty Access Limitations; Business Tax Incentives; Transfer Pricing & the Profit Split Method; The Post-Election Landscape for SMEs with Global Interests
Speakers: Jon Wingent (Close Brothers); Roy Saunders (IFS Consultants); Bernhard Gilbey (Squire Patton Boggs); Dr Emmanuel Llinares and Amanda Pletz (NERA Economic Consulting); Philip Baker QC (Field Court Tax Chambers).
Household debt, macroprudential policies, and financial stabilityFinanssivalvonta
Claudio Raddatz Kiefer's (Division Chief of the Global Financial Stability Analysis Division, IMF's Monetary and Capital Markets Department) presentation on FIN-FSA Conference on EU Regulation and Supervision – focusing on household indebtedness and macroprudential stability
Leslie Preston, an economist with TD Canada Trust, delivered an informative presentation at the Economic Briefing Breakfast held at lookout Point Country Club on October 20 2015. Members of the Welland/Pelham and Port Colborne-Wainfleet Chambers of Commerce as well as clients of TD and Durward Jones Barkwell took in the economic forecast for Canada and Niagara while enjoying a hearty breakfast served up by Lookout Point.
"Economic and Financial Sector Overview" is a study produced by Banco Central.
I always end up checking those information reports to make my studies and decisions. It's so important that I decided to put in a visible and easy access platform.
The US Fed has raised rates for the first time since June 2006. But was it needed? Rupert Seggins & Marcus Wright look at the following key aspects of the US economy: inflation, the labour market, growth & the global backdrop to establish whether a rate rise was necessary and some of the pros & cons of doing it now.
MUTUAL FUNDS (ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund) BY JAMES RODRIGUESWilliamRodrigues148
Mutual funds are investment vehicles that pool money from multiple investors to purchase a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, or other securities. They are managed by professional portfolio managers or investment companies who make investment decisions on behalf of the fund's investors.
2. Investment Planning Counsel – The Next Wave
Perspective Versus Consensus
SEPTEMBER 2015
DAVID STONEHOUSE, B. Sc. Eng., MBA, CFA
VICE-PRESIDENT & PORTFOLIO MANAGER
AGF INVESTMENTS INC.
3. -10
-5
0
5
10
Jul2011
Jan2012
Jul2012
Jan2013
Jul2013
Jan2014
Jul2014
Jan2015
Jul2015
Year-over-year-
change(%)
U.S. economic data similar to September 2012
Source: Bianco Research, Bloomberg, July 31, 2015.
Personal Income
• Oil price decline actually
reduced GDP growth by
some estimates
-4%
1%
6%
Jul2011
Jan2012
Jul2012
Jan2013
Jul2013
Jan2014
Jul2014
Jan2015
Jul2015
Quarter-over-quarter
change(annualized
rate)
Industrial production
Sep. 12
Headline & Core PCENominal & Real GDP
Year-over-year personal expenditures Private payrolls
Sep. 12 Sep. 12
Sep. 12
Sep. 12
Adjusted unemployment
4. FED has already tightened substantially
• Effects of QE taper and strengthening
dollar 2013-2015 have resulted in
further tightening
Source: Stifel Nicolaus, Jul. 2015, based on study by Cleveland Fed
5. Survey
Median forecast 6
mths forward
% Expecting Six Months Later
Was the Forecast
directionally correct?
Date 10-year yield Level Nr. of Econ. Surveyed
Higher
Rates
Actual
Level
Change
Oct. 10, 2013 2.68% 3.07% 63 94% 2.65% -0.03% No
Nov.14, 2013 2.69% 3.08% 65 97% 2.60% -0.09% No
Dec.12, 2013 2.88% 3.08% 65 89% 2.62% -0.26% No
Jan.16, 2014 2.84% 3.30% 65 97% 2.59% -0.25% No
Feb.13, 2014 2.72% 3.20% 75 95% 2.43% -0.29% No
Mar.13, 2014 2.64% 3.20% 71 97% 2.54% -0.10% No
Apr.10,2014 2.65% 3.33% 67 100% 2.32% -0.33% No
May 08, 2014 2.60% 3.25% 71 99% 2.35% -0.25% No
Jun.12, 2014 2.62% 3.07% 75 99% 2.16% -0.46% No
Jul.10, 2014 2.59% 3.15% 67 100% 1.71% -0.88% No
Aug.14, 2014 2.43% 3.11% 67 100% 1.99% -0.44% No
Sep.11, 2014 2.54% 3.00% 68 96% 2.06% -0.48% No
Oct.08, 2014 2.32% 3.10% 73 100% 1.95% -0.37% No
Nov.13, 2014 2.35% 2.90% 82 99% 2.29% -0.06% No
Dec.11, 2014 2.16% 2.80% 71 100% 2.48% 0.32% Yes
Jan.15, 2015 1.71% 2.40% 67 99% ? ? ?
Feb.12, 2015 1.99% 2.40% 66 91% ? ? ?
Mar.12, 2015 2.06% 2.40% 68 90% ? ? ?
Apr.09, 2015 1.95% 2.50% 68 99% ? ? ?
May 14, 2015 2.29% 2.50% 67 90% ? ? ?
Jun.11, 2015 2.48% 2.58% 70 86% ? ? ?
Economists are poor forecasters
Source: Bianco Research, L.L.C, June 19, 2015.
6. Same with the U.S. Federal Reserve Board
Source: Ned Davis Research, August 27, 2015.
7. Economic projections of Fed Board members
% change in real GDP 2010 2011 2012
January 2010 projection 2.8 – 3.5 3.4 - 4.5 3.5 – 4.5
Actual 2.5 1.6 2.3
2011 2012 2013
January 2011 projection 3.4 – 3.9 3.5 – 4.4 3.7 – 4.6
Actual 1.6 2.3 2.2
2012 2013 2014
January 2012 projection 2.2 – 2.7 2.8 – 3.2 3.3 – 4.0
Actual 2.3 2.2 2.4
2013 2014 2015
December 2012 projection 2.5 – 3.0 3.0 – 3.8 3.0 – 3.8
Actual 2.2 2.4 ?
2014 2015 2016
December 2013 projection 2.8 – 3.2 3.0 – 3.4 2.5 – 3.2
Actual 2.4 ? ?
2015 2016 2017
December 2014 projection 2.6 – 3.0 2.5 – 3.0 2.3 – 2.5
Actual ? ? ?
2015 2016 2017
June 2015 projection 1.8 – 2.0 2.4 – 2.7 2.1 – 2.5
Actual ? ? ?
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve Board, June 17, 2015.
8. FOMC assessment of appropriate monetary policy
• Fed projecting 2.75-3.00% fed funds rate by
YE 2017 (down from 3.75% nine months
ago)
• Assuming first rate hike in Dec. (current
projection), Fed has 17 meetings (eight/year)
to raise rates 11 times
• Fed would need to hike two out of
every three meetings (assuming 25
bps/hike) to hit target
• If first hike in Jan. or Mar., Fed needs
to hike ~¾ of all meetings
• Long run GDP growth projection 2-2.3% vs.
fed funds rate 3.75% disconnect?
Source: Bianco Research, Federal Reserve Board, August 11, 2015 meeting minutes.
9. Corporate balance sheets less healthy than most think
Source: IMF, Ned Davis Research, March 31, 2015.
10. Austerity a better idea than many think
The bigger the government, the lower the growth
Sources: IMF, BCA Research. Global Investment Strategy, November 7, 2014.
11. Potential for credit expansion diminished
Date Range Decade Change in Debt ($B) Decade Change in GDP ($B) Debt/GDP
1949-1959 337.3 258.3 1.31
1959-1969 752.5 511.4 1.47
1969-1979 2,790.9 1,690.0 1.65
1979-1989 8,651.1 3,032.7 2.85
1989-1999 12,512.8 4,162.7 3.01
1999-2009 26,746.2 4,640.4 5.76
2009-2014 6,523.1 3,134.8 2.08
Unprecedented stimulus not driving credit expansion, due mainly to high debt
Source: Ned Davis Research, March 31, 2015..
12. Canada vs. U.S. fundamentals
Canada U.S.
Gross Debt to GDP (2014) 86.5% 104.8%
Deficit (2014, % of GDP) -0.3% -2.8%
Unfunded liabilities % of GDP* 104.4% 207.8%
• Canadian gov’t. balance sheet stronger than U.S. (good for Canadian bonds)
Canada U.S.
GDP growth (2015e)** 1.2% 2.3%
Productivity*** 1.0% 1.5%
Household debt to disposable income
(2014)
152% 135%
• Monetary policy dovish in Canada, hawkish in U.S. (good for Canadian bonds)
BNS, Bloomberg, IMF, Dec. 2014-Aug. 2015
*IMF, National Bank; includes Healthcare and Social Security estimated up to 2050
** Bloomberg, August 31, 2015.
***Annualized 1983 – 2013, Source: OECD, Bloomberg
13. Oil prices following pattern of previous cycle
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Cumulativechangeinoilpricefromstartof
bullmarket(rebasedat1,percent)
Year after start of bull market
September 30, 1970 - December 31, 1998 January 1, 1999 - present
Sources: Ned Davis Research. Monthly WTI data from September 30, 1970 to December 31, 1998 and January 1, 1999 to August 31, 2015. Monthly prices represent
the daily average price for each respective month.
15. Historical asset class returns
Annualized Returns
(%, USD unhedged)
Mar. 31, ‘09 – Aug. 31, ‘15
annualized return
Global equities 14.2%
Global bonds 3.2%
Global high yield bonds 13.9%
Global convertible bonds 12.8%
Sources: Global equities represented by MSCI All Country World Total Return Index. Global bonds represented by Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index.
Global high yield bonds represented by Barclays Capital Global High Yield Bond Index. Global convertible bonds represented by Barclays Capital Global Convertibles
Bond Index. For illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index.
16. Equity return expectations need to be lowered
0
2
4
6
8
10
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
Income before Extraordinary Items Margin
Shaded areas represent
National Bureau of Economic Research recession
Earnings growth muted
• Sales growth constrained by slow
GDP growth, low inflation
• Margin expansion potential limited
(peak operating margins)
0
25
50
1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
S&P 500 Cap-Adjusted** P/E Ratio
0
25
50
0
15
30
0
100
200
Multiple Expansion Potential More Limited
S&P 500 Price/10-Year Average Earnings^
S&P 500 Median P/E Ratio
S&P 500 P/E (GAAP) Ratio*
S&P 500 Price/Operating Earnings Ratio*
M
M
+1
+1
M
+1
M
+1
-1
-1
-1
M
+1
+3
+3
+3
+3
+2
Jul. 31, ‘15: 21.62
Jul 31, ‘15: 19.02
Jul 31, ‘15: 26.54
Jul 31, ‘15: 21.75
Jul 31, ‘15: 19.35
Sources: Ned Davis Research, Robert Shiller, Irrational Exuberance. * Excludes write-offs. ^ Inflation adjusted. ** Earnings weighed by market cap. Left hand chart as at
May 31, 2015. Right hand chart as at July 31, 2015.
17. Bond return expectations need to be lowered
• Traditional bonds ~ 2%
– Prolonged negative returns due to spike in yields unlikely
– However, sustainable gains due to drop in yields virtually impossible
– Therefore, expected returns should approximate current yields
• Solution: seek alternatives
Please see appendix for the full disclaimer.
18. Source: Ned Davis Research, July 31, 2015.
But real yields still offer some value vs. historical norms
19. U.S. returns in election years
Returns in USD S&P 500 Long-term Treasuries
Average total return 5.5% 7.4%
Median total return 9.0% 6.1%
Best return 27.9% 24.0%
Worst return -38.5% -5.6%
# of times asset class outperformed (21 instances) 13 8
Average annualized total return (1932-2012)* 10.6% 5.9%
Source: Ned Davis Research. S&P 500 Index and Barclays Capital Long-term Treasury Bonds Total Return Index used. * Annualized total return for
81-year period from December 31, 1931 to December 31, 2012.
20. Calendar-Year
Returns (%, USD)
2015* 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
Convertible
bonds
3.2 3.6 16.9 12.6 -5.7 12.3 36.8 -27.8 9.8 16.0 0.2 8.0 21.2 2.1 -9.2 -8.4
Global bonds -4.9 0.6 -2.6 4.3 5.6 5.5 6.9 4.8 9.5 6.6 -4.5 9.3 12.5 16.5 1.6 3.2
Global equities 3.9 4.7 23.4 16.8 -6.9 13.2 35.4 -41.8 12.2 21.5 11.4 15.8 34.6 -19.0 -15.9 -13.9
Convertible bonds: Distinct investment opportunity
• Low correlation to other fixed income asset classes
• Excellent hedge in a rising rate environment
• Enhanced returns vs. conventional bonds
Source: For illustrative purpose only. You cannot invest directly in an index. Convertible bonds represented by BofAML Global Convertible Index, Global bonds
represented by Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index, Global equities represented by MSCI ACWI. *2015 YTD to July 31, 2015.
21. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Risk/Return
Convertible bonds can complement a core bond portfolio
• Strong historical return profile with less volatility than equities
20% Convertible Bonds / 80% Global Bonds
10% Convertible Bonds / 90% Global Bonds
Global Bonds
Global convertibles
Global equities
5-yearannualizedreturns(%)
5-year annualized standard deviation (%)
Source: Barclays Capital as of July 31, 2015. All data is in USD. For illustrative purpose only. You cannot invest directly in an index. Convertible bonds represented by
BofAML Global Convertible Index, Global bonds represented by Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index, Global equities represented by MSCI ACWI.
22. Fun pop quiz
• Which one of the BRIC equity markets do investors worry may be in a bubble?
• Which of the BRICs has had the highest returns since the beginning of the EM bull market
(Sep. 30 2001 to Aug. 31 2015)?
• Which had the lowest returns?
Please see appendix for the full disclaimer.
23. BRIC equity returns since Sept. 30, 2001
-200%
0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
1,000%
1,200%
1,400%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Cumulativetotalreturn(%)
Brazil
Russia
India
China
Source: Bloomberg. Cumulative return series using monthly total return data from September 30, 2011 to August 31, 2015. Russia represented by Moscow Interbank
Currency Exchange (MICEX), India represented by the S&P Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex Index and China represented by the Shanghai Composite Index.
24. Disclaimers
Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the
prospectus before investing. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in share and/or
unit value and reinvestment of all dividends and/or distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or
income taxes payable by any security holder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed; their values change frequently
and past performance may not be repeated.
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise.
Investments denominated in foreign currencies are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates, which may have an adverse affect on the value of
the investments, sale proceeds, and on dividend or interest income. Investors may not necessarily recoup the full value of their original
investment. Investors should be aware that forward looking statements and forecasts may not be realized.
The commentaries contained herein are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of August 31, 2015 and
should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and / or sell securities. Every effort has been made to
ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication, however accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and
the manager accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use or reliance on the information contained herein.
The information contained herein was provided by AGF Investment Operations and intends to provide you with information related to the Funds. It
is not intended to be investment advice applicable to any specific circumstance and should not be construed as investment advice. Market
conditions may change impacting the composition of a portfolio. AGF Investments Inc. assumes no responsibility for any investment decisions
made based on the information provided herein.
This report may not be reproduced (in whole or in part), transmitted or made available to any other person without the prior
written permission of AGF Investments Inc.
This document is intended for advisors to support the assessment of investment suitability for investors. Investors are expected to consult their
advisor to determine suitability for their investment objectives and portfolio.
Published Date: September 15, 2015.
25.
26. THE NEXT WAVE IS VALUE
Andrew Massie, CIM
Senior Vice President, Mackenzie Cundill Team Co-Lead
September 15, 2015
27. ADVISOR USE ONLY
Investing styles are cyclical
ROLLING 5-YEAR EXCESS RETURN FOR VALUE* STRATEGIES VS. GROWTH**
Source: StarCapital 2015
History of Value vs. Growth investing suggests Value is on the cusp of outperforming
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1931 1938 1945 1952 1959 1966 1973 1980 1987 1994 2001 2008 2015 2022
?
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Value vs. Growth US
Average since 1931 (4.8%)
VALUE POTENTIAL LOW
HIGH
*Value defined as lowest 30% of P/B,
**Growth defined as highest 30% of P/B
6 years (86%)
7 years (87%)
6 years (54%)
5 years (79%)
6 years (54%)
6 years (24%)
5 years (-11%)
P/B Ratio: A ratio used to compare
a stock's market value to its book
value. It is calculated by dividing
the current closing price of the
stock by the latest quarter's book
value per share.
28. ADVISOR USE ONLY
Why Value now?
RELATIVE PRICE: S&P 500 Index VALUE VS. GROWTH
Source: BMO Capital Markets Investment Strategy Group, FactSet, Bloomberg 2015
Tech boom
Value poised
to outperform?
1975-1978
Value 15% CAGR
June 2000-2007
9.6% CAGR
0.6
0.7
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1975 19901980 1985 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
Dotted lines represent
+/- one standard deviation
Growth outperformance has reached abnormal levels
*The S&P 500 Index or the Standard & Poor's 500, is an American stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.
Standard Deviation is a measure of historical risk. Future risk may be different
29. ADVISOR USE ONLY
Why Counsel International now?
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OIL PRICES AND GLOBAL GROWTH
▸Global growth expected to drive
oil higher (Energy: 7% overweight)
Brent Oil Price (left)
World GDP Mean Estimate 2015 (right)
30
130
150
Aug-13 Aug-14Feb-14 Feb-15 Aug-15
110
90
70
50
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.7
Oil prices were down 60%
from June 2014 – March 2015
Fund’s overweight in Energy* favours outperformance
Brent Crude is a major trading classification of
sweet light crude oil that serves as a major
benchmark price for purchases of oil worldwide.
Energy: Shares in Energy companiesCornerstone Macro 2015
30. ADVISOR USE ONLY
Korea on sale
Korea has not participated with global markets
Dec 31,2010 to June 30 2015:
▸Won to Dollar appreciated 16%
Trough to Peak
▸Yen to Dollar depreciated 18%
Peak to Trough
US – S&P 500 Index (USD). World – MSCI EAFE Index (Local). Korea – KOSPI (Local). Dividend excluded for all *estimated
Source: Bloomberg, December 31, 2010 to June 30, 2014.
Dec. 31, 2010 to June 30, 2015
Total
Return
Annualized P/B
S&P 500 Index – Local 67.1% 12.1% 2.8x
MSCI EAFE Index – Local 36.4% 7.2% 1.7x
Korean Market (KOSPI) – Local 1.9% 0.41% 1.0x
KOSPI : Korean Stock Exchange Index
31. ADVISOR USE ONLY
Asia positioning
We are value seekers not benchmark huggers
South Korea
• Hyundai 4.71%
• Posco 4.82%
• LG Corp 1.92%
Japan
• Honda Motor 2.3%
• Kurita Water 2.83%
• Sankyo Co 0.9%
Hong Kong
• CK Hutchison Holdings 3.4%
• First Pacific Co 2.5%
• Melco Crown 1.7%
Mackenzie Analytics : As of June 30, 2015
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
China Hong Kong Japan Macau Singapore South Korea
Cundill
Benchmark
Benchmark : MSCI EAFE Index
32. ADVISOR USE ONLY
Europe
Portfolio exposure to Europe (excl. UK) = Equal weight
Source: Bloomberg, June 2, 2015 QE: Quantitative Easing
QE* BOOSTING EUROPEAN AND JAPANESE SHARE PRICES (EXISTING)
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
-12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
-12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
-12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
-12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36
US: Equities before and after start of QE
Fed’s QE3
t=0 is Sep. 2012
BoE’s QE
t=0 is Feb. 2012
BoJ’s QQE
t=0 is Apr. 2013
ECB’s QE
t=0 is Jan. 2015
UK: Equity before and after start of QE
Japan: Equity before and after start of QE Euro Zone: Equity before and after start of QE
33. ADVISOR USE ONLY
Summary
▸Value investing has been out of favour for a quite a while,
not unlike the latter 1990’s, we believe we are due for a
renaissance.
▸We think markets are expensive, this could continue for a while,
however contrarian value opportunities are available in the key
Korean market and Energy sectors, Europe to a lesser degree.
“In our style of doing things, patience is patience is patience.”
−Peter Cundill
34. ADVISOR USE ONLY
Disclaimer
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the
portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to
many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual
outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or
assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Mackenzie Financial Corporation and its
affiliates assume no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other
factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.
Important information about Mackenzie mutual funds is contained in the Funds’ simplified prospectus. Investors should obtain a copy from their
financial advisor and read it carefully before investing. The Funds’ individual holdings, including holdings specifically discussed herein, are subject
to change without notice. Investors should speak to their financial advisor about obtaining the most current information regarding a Fund’s holdings.
Calculations of average annual compound returns have been calculated to the date specified. The calculations include changes in unit value and
reinvestment of all distributions but do not take into account sales, redemption or optional charges payable by an investor which would have
reduced returns. When purchasing mutual funds, investors should be aware that: mutual fund investments are not guaranteed; unit values and
investment returns will fluctuate over time; and past performance does not assure similar future returns.
35.
36. Jason MacKay
Vice President, Head of Global Investment Strategies
September 15, 2015
Invesco perspectives Q3 2015
Managing the economic paradox
38. Opportunities around the world
Price-to-earnings ratios
For advisor use only. No portion of this communication may be reproduced or redistributed.
Source: Bloomberg L.P. as at June 30, 2015.
The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are based on The BEst (Bloomberg Estimates) Earnings Per Share (EPS Adjusted) estimate returns Earnings Per Share from
Continuing Operations, which may exclude the effects of one-time and extraordinary gains/losses, for the following indices: S&P 500 Index for the U.S.; S&P/TSX
Composite Index for Canada; MSCI Emerging Markets Index for emerging markets; MSCI Europe Index for Europe; Nikkei 225 Index for Japan; and FTSE 100
Index for the United Kingdom. The forward P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio is the four quarters forward estimate.
Note: You cannot invest directly in an index.
Canada
18.1
U.K.
15.7
U.S.
17.5
Europe
15.9
Emerging markets
12.6
Japan
19.2
39. The divergent global economy
For advisor use only. No portion of this communication may be reproduced or redistributed.
Sources: Bloomberg L.P. and Morningstar Research Inc., as at June 30, 2015. Performance is in Canadian dollars. Note: You cannot
invest directly in an index
2.9
1.2
1.0
-0.9
2.4
1.5 0.8
0.4
0.1
1.0
0.2 0.5
United States Canada Europe Japan
GDP (YOY, %) 10-year gov't. yield (%) CPI (YOY, %)
Index performance YTD (%) 1-yr (%) 3-yr (%) 5-yr (%) 10-yr (%)
■ S&P 500 Index (C$) 9.11 25.91 25.51 21.19 8.10
■ S&P/TSX Composite Index 0.91 -1.16 11.12 8.28 6.86
■ MSCI Europe Index (Net, C$) 11.90 8.24 20.23 13.62 5.23
■ Nikkei 225 Index (Net, C$) 23.32 31.22 23.34 14.74 6.44
40. Canada’s lower growth expectations
Real GDP contracted in first half of 2015
Source: Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report, July 2015.
For advisor use only. No portion of this communication may be reproduced or redistributed.
Business investment
Exports
Other components of GDP
GDP growth
(quarterly at annual rates)
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4% 2014 2015
41. Global oil prices remain low
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as at July 31, 2015.
For advisor use only. No portion of this communication may be reproduced or redistributed.
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Western Canada Select Oil Brent Crude Oil
Oil prices expressed in U.S. dollars
42. A return in equity volatility
For advisor use only. No portion of this communication may be reproduced or redistributed.
* Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index.
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as at June 30, 2015.
Note: You cannot invest directly in an index.
VIXIndexvalue
S&P500IndexTRvalue
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
VIX* (CBOE Volatility Index) S&P 500 Index Long-term VIX average
43. Currency volatility
U.S. dollar has appreciated significantly over the past year
For advisor use only. No portion of this communication may be reproduced or redistributed.
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as at July 31, 2015.
The Canadian-dollar exchange rate index is a weighted average of bilateral exchange rates for the Canadian dollar against the currencies
of Canada’s major trading partners. A rise indicates an appreciation of the Canadian dollar.
Note: You cannot invest directly in an index.
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
December March June September December March June
CAD/USD EUR/USD JPY/USD USD Trade-Weighted Index CAD Exchange Rate Index
Cumulative currency movement
44. A look under the hood at equity returns
Re-ratings activity driving market performance
For advisor use only. No portion of this communication may be reproduced or redistributed.
Sources: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Quantitative Strategy, MSCI Inc. and IBES, as at August 25, 2015.
Please see the last slide for important information.
45. 31.51
13.14 12.21
36.72
5.55
0.95
2013 2014 July 2015
B+ or better B or Worse
12-month return: B+ or better vs. B or worse
stocks
Quality matters
Inflection point for quality happened late in 2014
For advisor use only. No portion of this communication may be reproduced or redistributed.
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch US Quantitative Strategy, July 31, 2015. MLQS Quality indices represents a BofAML U.S. universe of
approximately 1,300 stocks.
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014 performance spread: B+ or better vs. B
or worse stocks
46. Q3 2015 macro considerations
For advisor use only. No portion of this communication may be reproduced or redistributed.
Divergent global economy
Stock-picking will matter
Quality premium will persist
GDP growth ≠ market performance
Alpha through global exposure
Normalization of volatility
51. MARKETS HIT A DOWNTURN
-3.5 -2.9
0.2
-12.7
-2.4
2.6
10.5
-16.0
-12.0
-8.0
-4.0
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
S&P/TSX
Composite
S&P 500 MSCI EAFE
(US$)
MSCI EM
(US$)
JPM Global
Agg. Bond
(US$)
iShares FTSE
TMX U. Bond
Source: Bloomberg. Data as at August 31, 2015.
Bonds
YTD total return %
as at August 31
US$
C$
52. BONDS CAN’T MAKE UP THEIR MINDS
Source: Bloomberg. Data as at August 31, 2015.
2.22%
1.49%
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Dec-11 Jul-12 Feb-13 Sep-13 Apr-14 Dec-14 Jul-15
U.S. Treasury 10-year
Gov't Canada 10-year
53. LOONIE CONTINUES TO TUMBLE
$0.76
0.74
0.76
0.78
0.80
0.82
0.84
0.86
0.88
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15
Source: Bloomberg. Data as at August 31, 2015
Value of C$1.00 in US$ terms
56. GDP growth
1960 – 2010 US$134x
China
U.S.
31x
Source: The World Bank.
GOING FOR GROWTH
57. CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR HALF OF GLOBAL
METAL CONSUMPTION
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Iron ore
Coal
Copper
Lead
Natural gas
China consumption % of world total
Source: Bloomberg. Data as at August 31, 2015
61. CANADA: READY FOR A RECESSION?
POSITIVE NEUTRAL NEGATIVE
A second interest rate cut, lower
mortgage rates
Weaker C$ Low oil prices
U.S. economy
High home prices & consumer debt
(short term)
China
Uncertain jobs picture
0 105
JULY
4.0
APRIL
3.5
62. -20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
TACTICAL CASE STUDY:
UNDERWEIGHT CANADIAN EQUITY
Source: Morningstar. Data from Jan 17, 2012 (inception of tactical asset allocation process implementation) to March 31, 2015. Average overweight or underweight positions
are calculated since inception on Sun Life Managed Balanced Portfolio (cash is considered fixed income). Value-add of Canadian equity takes into account the overweight
position of Canadian equity and the returns of the Canadian equity benchmark and the blended equity benchmark which contains the underlying equity indices.
U.S. equity
S&P 500 TR C$
Cdn equity
S&P/TSX Capped Comp. TR
112.4%
34.2%
Jan 17, 2012 – March 31, 2015
Avg. Canadian equity underweight 2.50%
Value-add 130 bps
63. BoC OUTLOOK “MARKED DOWN
CONSIDERABLY”
“While vulnerabilities associated with household imbalances remain elevated
and could edge higher, Canada’s economy is undergoing a
significant and complex adjustment. Additional monetary
stimulus is required at this time to help return the economy to full capacity
and inflation sustainably to target.”
Source: Bank of Canada media release, July 15, 2015.
BoC lowers key rate from 1.00% to 0.50% in two cuts over six-month span
64. JUNE GDP UPTICK FIRST IN 6 MONTHS
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15
GDP MoM % change
Seasonally adjusted
Source: Bloomberg. Data as June 30, 2015
66. OIL SUPPLY STILL RISING
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
Oil supply (EIA)
Left side
Baker Hughes U.S. oil & gas rotary rig count
Right side
Million bpd
Source: Bloomberg. Data as May 31, 2015
67. CANADA’S OIL NOT CHEAP…
72 69
65
60
50
38
32
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Cdn oil
sands
Mexico U.S. shale Brazil Norway Russia OPEC avg.
US$/bbl
Source: Capital Economics, June 16, 2015.
Average production cost
68. TOP 10 CRUDE PRODUCERS IN 2014
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Russia Saudi
Arabia
U.S. China Canada Iraq UAE Kuwait Mexico
Thousand
bpd
Source: Market Realist, January 15, 2015.
69. TOP 10 NET OIL IMPORTERS IN 2014
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
U.S. China Japan India South
Korea
Germany France Spain Italy Taiwan
Million
bpd
Source: Market Realist, January 15, 2015.
70. JOBS: THE IMPACT OF LOW OIL
7.8
7.3
6.3
5.5
4.6
3.5
7.7
6.4
6.0
5.6
6.0
5.2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Quebec Ontario B.C. Manitoba Alberta Saskatchewan
Q3 2014
July…
Provincial unemployment rate
Source: Bloomberg. Data as at July 31, 2015
71. GOLD REMAINS IN RANGE
$1,135
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15
Source: Bloomberg. Data as at August 31, 2015
Gold spot price US$/oz
72. HOUSE PRICE-TO-INCOME RATIOS
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Long-term average = 100
Source: Capital Economics, published Dec ember 15, 2014
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
60
1981
70
1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
73. CANADIANS TOPS IN CONSUMER DEBT
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Canada France Germany U.S.
Source: OECD website. Data accessed December 31, 2014
Household debt to disposable income %
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Includes
mortgage debt
Excludes
mortgage
debt
76. EUROZONE: IMPROVING FUNDAMENTALS
POSITIVE NEUTRAL NEGATIVE
Record low interest rates Unemployment stabilizing High unemployment
Stronger QE Low growth
Weak euro Greece
MARCH
5.0
APRIL
6.0
0 105
79. EVEN MORE AUSTERITY
• Raise taxes
• Reform pension system
• Protect independence of national statistics agency
• Automatically cut federal spending if budget targets
missed
• Create special privatization fund
• And more…
“We had a very specific choice:
A deal we largely disagreed
with, or a chaotic default.”
– Prime Minister of Greece Alex Tsipras
Quoted by Associated Press, July 16, 2015
83. 0 105
U.S.: EXPECTATIONS STARTING TO LOOK
HIGH
MARCH
7.0
APRIL
6.5
POSITIVE NEUTRAL NEGATIVE
Low oil prices House price gains likely to slow Interest rate increase likely this year
Consumer strength Earnings growth likely to slow Strong US$
Job creation
84. U.S. JOBLESS RATE APPROACHES
KEY FED LEVEL
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15
Monthly change in non-farm…
Source: Bloomberg. Data as July 31, 2015
Thousands
Unemployment rate = 5.3%
85. CONSUMER DEBT PICTURE IS BRIGHTER
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Mar-81 Mar-84 Mar-87 Mar-90 Mar-93 Mar-96 Mar-99 Mar-02 Mar-05 Mar-08 Mar-11 Mar-14
Household debt as % of personal
income (left side)
Source: Bloomberg. Data as March 31, 2015
87. SUN LIFE GRANITE MANAGED
PORTFOLIOS ARE POSITIONED FOR:
• A weak domestic economy
• Concern over China
• Rising bond yields
• Low oil prices
• Uncertainty surrounding Greece
88.
89. SUN LIFE GRANITE MANAGED PORTFOLIOS
Portfolio SERIES A
CATEGORY / FUNDS IN CATEGORY
1 yr 2 yr 3 yr Since
inception
Inception
date
Return % Quartile Return % Quartile Return % Quartile
Conservative*
GLOBAL FIXED INCOME BALANCED / 391 7.0 1 7.8 2 7.2 2 6.5 02/04/2012*
Moderate
GLOBAL NEUTRAL BALANCED / 1140 9.0 2 10.3 2 10.1 2 9.0 17/01/2012
Balanced
GLOBAL NEUTRAL BALANCED / 1140 10.3 1 11.8 1 11.7 1 10.3 17/01/2012
Balanced Growth
GLOBAL EQUITY BALANCED / 887 11.5 2 13.2 2 13.2 2 11.6 17/01/2012
Growth
GLOBAL EQUITY BALANCED / 887 12.5 1 14.5 1 14.7 1 12.7 17/01/2012
Data as of July 10, 2015. Source: RBC Investor Services, Morningstar. *On April 2, 2012, Sun Life Granite Conservative Portfolio underwent a merger that was a material
change for the fund under applicable securities laws. As a result of this change, we are only permitted to show performance information for periods after the date of the
merger. Morningstar quartile rankings show how well a fund has performed compared to all other funds in its peer group. Ratings and/or ranking information is subject to
change monthly.
90. 21 32
71 5923
66
53 63
-4
90 31 21
6 mo 1 yr 3 yr SI
Manager
selection
40
155
143
The return over benchmark does not include other effects such as those resulting from cash flows which impact the total value added. Asset allocations are subject to change
without notice. Analysis done June 30, 2015. Returns are shown gross of management expense ratio. Totals may differ due to rounding. Inception date January 17, 2012.
Return over benchmark (in basis points) due to:
TACTICAL MANAGEMENT IN ACTION
Sun Life Granite Balanced Portfolio
Benchmark
return
188
Mortgage debt has fallen due to foreclosures. HELOC and credit card debt has fallen since they are the most discretionary and highest cost. Student debt has actually increased substantially as people improve their education to enhance their job prospects.
We could have a cycle of credit expansion that lasts years if confidence improves sufficiently, consumers become more willing to borrow and increase their leverage, and banks manage regulatory hurdles and lend more. The question is how much leverage will borrowers and lenders be comfortable with given record high levels vs. historical norms?
Notes for studio in building the slide:
Dates from 2012-2014 when VIX was over the 1990-2014 average of 20
Highlighted on graph:
Dec 14 where the vix breaks above the LT avg, there should be another gray bar
Oct 10 – Oct 17 2014
Feb 3 2014
Oct 8 2013
Jun 20-24 2013
Dec 28 2012
May 9 – Jun 15 2012
Here’s a picture we stole from The Atlantic online.
Shanghai skyline in 1987 and 2013.
Point is to make it clear “where we go from here” question from prior slide. It’s obvious where the growth is. Do we want to be a part of this development or stand on the sidelines and let it pass us by?
Red dot represents baseline GDP for China and the US in 1960.
Blue circle represents cumulative GDP growth of the US from 1960 to 2010. The economy grew by a factor of 31.
Grey circle is China’s GDP growth over the same time period – it grew by a factor of 134.