There is overwhelming support for devolution by the public, with more than three-quarters (78%) expressing this view. This represents a considerable increase since last September, when such support was expressed by only two-thirds (69%) of all respondents.

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SPEC Barometer
Prepared by: Ipsos
Press Release
Release date: 22nd April 2015

2. 2
Methodology

3. Methodology
3
Dates of polling 28th March - 7th April 2015
Sample Size 1,964
Sampling methodology
Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS
(proportionate to population size)
Universe
Data collection
methodology
Sampling error
Face-to-Face interviews at the household level
Poll funding Ipsos Limited
Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban
and Rural areas
+/-2.2% with a 95% confidence level
(Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)

4. Sample Structure Statistics
4
Region
Sample Frame statistics
(April 2015)
*Weighted data
%
Population Census as at 2009
Adults (18 years +)
%
Central 257 13 2,548,038 13
Coast 173 9 1,711,549 9
Eastern 293 15 2,907,293 15
Nairobi 206 10 2,042,770 10
North Eastern 94* 5 929,158 5
Nyanza 257 13 2,547,980 13
Rift Valley 484 25 4,795,482 25
Western 200 10 1,980,090 10
TOTAL 1,964 100 19,462,360 100

5. Quality Control Measures
 For at least 20% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout
 Field managers visit at least 15% of the respondents in the sample at their
households to confirm the interviews (i.e. back-checking).
 After the interview data are electronically transmitted to the Ipsos Server: an
independent team then makes random phone calls to 40% of the
respondents to confirm that the interviews were conducted with the said
respondents (i.e., telephonic back-checks).
 Mobile Data Collection Platform captures GPS location (latitudes and
longitudes) of interviews conducted to verify the locations of the
interviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording.
 Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensure
conformity to the sample’s statistical parameters.
5
Ipsos employs quality control measures to ensure the highest
possible integrity of obtained results/data

6. 6
Respondents’
Demographic Profile

7. 28%
2%
30%
8%
11%
9%
10%
1%
1%
9%
22%
28%
23%
4%
4%
2%
5%
1%
2%
Catholic
Catholic Charismatic
Mainstream Protestant (ACK,…
SDA
Evangelical
Other Christian
Muslim
Refused To Answer/None
No religion
Public Sector wages/salary
Private sector wages /salary
Gains from self employment/…
Agriculture (own/household farm)
Livestock
Given money by others
Pension from previous employment
Other
Don’t Know
Refused To Answer
Demographic Profile
10%
9%
13%
25%
5%
15%
13%
10%
51%
49%
28%
29%
18%
25%
37%
63%
100%
Nairobi
Coast
Nyanza
Rift Valley
North Eastern
Eastern
Central
Western
Female
Male
18 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45+
Urban
Rural
Kenyans
7
Region
Gender
Age
Setting
Religion
Nationality
Source of Household Income
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

8. Demographic Profile
4%
14%
19%
14%
26%
8%
7%
3%
3%
1%
42%
33%
11%
4%
1%
1%
0%
2%
7%
No formal education
Some primary education
Primary education completed
Some secondary education
Secondary education completed
Some middle level college (not…
Completed mid-level college (Not…
Some University education
University education completed
Post Graduate (Masters, MBA, PhD)
Less than 10,000
10,001 – 25,000
25,001 – 40,000
40,001 – 55,000
55,001 – 75,000
75,001 – 100,000
100,001 and above
Has No income
RTA/DK
8
Level of Education
Monthly Household Income (ALL
members of the Household)
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

9. Demographic Profile
41%
18%
11%
10%
7%
5%
5%
2%
1%
Self-Employed
Unemployed
Employed in the private sector
Peasant/herder (own farm/pasture)
Casual labour
Employed in the public sector
Student
Retired
Other
9
Employment Status
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

10. 10
Constituency
Development Fund
(CDF)

11. Awareness of Any CDF Project in the Locality (Single Response):
(By Total, Setting)
11
40%
9%
8%
7%
1% 1%
4%
30%
29%
13%
6%
8%
1%
6%
37%
46%
7%
10%
7%
1%
3%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Total (n=1,964) Urban (n=729) Rural (n=1,235)

12. “Do you think CDF is still needed to promote development at the
local level?”
(By Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/ Coalitions)
12
85%
10%
5%
87%
8%
5%
86%
10%
4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
YES NO Not Sure
Total (n=1,954) CORD Supporters (n=623) Jubilee Supporters (n=867)

13. “Do you think CDF is still needed to promote development at the
local level?”
(By Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/ Coalitions)
13
93%
87%
5%
9%
2% 4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
CDF has been "a complete success" (n=700) CDF has been "only a partial success/failure"
(n=634)
YES NO Not Sure

14. Preferred Oversight Responsibility for CDF (of Those 85% Who
Want It To Continue At All)
(By Total, Supporters of Main Political Parties/Coalitions)
14
38%
41%
18%
2%
39%
46%
14%
1%
40%
38%
20%
1%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
MPs/Parliament County Governments Central Government Not Sure
Total (n=1,678) CORD Supporters (n=541) Jubilee Supporters (n=748)

15. 15
Public Participation

16. “Are you satisfied with the opportunities made available to the
public for public participation by the..?” (By Total)
16
42%
44%45%
41%
9%
11%
4% 4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Central government County government
Satisfied Not satisfied Not sure Not interested in participating

17. 17
Support for Devolution

18. “Altogether, do you support devolution , that is, having county
governments in Kenya?”
(By Total and Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions)
18
78% 77%
80%
21% 23%
18%
2% 1% 1%
Total (n=1,964) Jubilee Supporters (n=867) CORD Supporters (n=623)
YES NO RTA

19. “Altogether, do you support devolution i.e. having county
governments in Kenya?” – Trend Analysis
19
69%
78%
28%
21%
3% 2%
September 2014 (n=2,021) April 2015 (n=1,964)
YES NO RTA

20. “How much confidence you have in each of the following, a lot of
confidence, some confidence, only a little confidence, or no
confidence at all in …? (By Total)
20%
22% 21%
19%
38%
44%
37%
34%
18% 19%
21% 21%22%
14%
20%
25%
2% 1% 1% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Your County Assembly
Representative (MCA)
County Governments Governors Senators
A lot of confidence Some confidence Only a little confidence
No confidence at all Don't Know
20Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

21. 21
Desired Changes in the
Constitution

22. “What changes would you like to see in the current Constitution, if
any?” (Multiple Response) (By Total)
13%
11%
9%
9%
9%
5%
3%
1%
1%
1%
10%
20%
25%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
A reduction in the number of elected officials
Limits on salaries and benefits for senior government
officials/more powers to the SRC
Replacement of IEBC
Less power for the governors/counties
Health services to remain a central government responsibility
More power for the governors/counties
A move away from pure presidential system to parliamentary
system
Increase presidential powers
Strengthen chapter 6 on integrity of leaders
Bill of rights
Invalid answers (not relevant to the Constitution)
None
Not sure
22Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

23. For further information contact:
Dr Tom Wolf
Research Analyst
tpwolf1944@gmail.com
Victor Rateng
Project Manager - Opinion Polls
victor.rateng@ipsos.com
Website: www.ipsos.co.ke
Follow us on twitter: @IpsosKe
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