COVID-19
WARRIORS VISUALIZATION AND
PREDICTION USING MACHINE LEARNING
SUBMITTED BY-
Apoorva Gupta (16/ICS/013)
Appurwa Saxena(16/ICS/014)
Jagriti Shahi(16/ICS/025)
Priyanka Bhartiya(16/ICS/042)

 What is Covid19?
 Structure
 Genetics
 Symptoms
 Transmission
 Current Situation
 Treatment
 Project Dataset
 Libraries used in analysis
 Algorithm used for visualization and prediction
 Cases in Epicentre
 Social Distancing
 Future prediction in India
 Conclusion
TOPICS TO BE DISCUSSED…

Yarn
WHAT IS COVID19 ?
❑Coronavirsuses (CoVs) are a large family of
viruses, called Coronaviridae.
❑It causes respiratory diseases as the target
receptors of the virus are in the lung cells.
❑The first human cases of COVID-19 were first
reported from Wuhan City, China, in December
2019.
❑ The first case of the covid-19 in India was
reported on 30 January 2020.

STRUCTURE

Key Asks GENETICS
• CoVs are divided into four genera:
alpha-, beta-, gamma-, delta- CoV.
• The human disease belongs to
the alpha- or the beta-CoV .
• It envelopped, positive-stranded RNA
viruses of mammals and birds.
• It have high mutation and gene
recombination rates.

❑It is not determined yet that, how humans in China were initially infected with
COVID-19.
❑All available evidence suggests that it is orginated from the bats and pangolin.
❑It jumped the species barrier and initially infected humans from another animal
host.

MOST COMMON:
• Fever
• Fatigue
• Dry Cough
SYMPTOMS
MAY ALSO HAVE:
• Aches and Pains
• Runny nose
• Sore throat
• Shortness of Breath

❑It can spread from person to person
through the infected person.
❑The droplets from the nose of infected
person can land on objects and surfaces
around the person.
❑Other people can be infected by
touching these objects or surfaces, then
touching their face.
❑People can catch COVID-19 if they
breathe in the air which have droplets of
a person with COVID-19.
TRANSMISSION

TRANSMISSION FLOWCHART

CURRENT SITUATION
❑The guidance for healthcare workers and health and social care services is being
developed and updated frequently.
❑Information on this and other public health websites are updated regularly.
❑There are already 1,00,000+ cases in India, we as a student our trying to help our
country by our software.

• Vacine is not currently available.
• The treatment is symptomatic, and
oxygen therapy.
• Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine
have been found to be effective on
COVID-19.
• Mechanical ventilation may be
necessary in cases of respiratory
failure refractory to oxygen therapy.
TREATMENT

SOCIAL DISTANCING

PROJECT DATASET
DATASET USED:
We have used three dataset for visualizing the situation of COVID-19 :
1. COVID-19 in India:Dataset on Novel Corona Virus Disease 2019 in India
About this dataset:
• This dataset has information from the states and union territories of India at daily level.
• COVID-19 cases at daily level is present in covid_19_india.csv file.
• Individual level details are present in IndividualDetails.csv file.
• Population at state level is present in population_india_census2011.csv file.
• Number of COVID-19 tests at daily level in ICMRTestingDetails.csv file.
• Number of hospital beds in each state in present in HospitalBedsIndia.csv file.

PROJECT DATASET
2. COVID-19 Statewise Testing Details India
SOURCE: Kaggle
3. Novel Corona Virus 2019 Dataset:Day level information on covid-19 affected cases
About this dataset:
• This dataset has daily level information on the number of affected cases, deaths and recovery
from 2019 novel coronavirus.
• This is a time series data and so the number of cases on any given day is the cumulative number.
• The data is available from 22 Jan, 2020.

• numpy
• Matplotlib
• pandas
• Xgboost
• Scikitlearn
• Plotly
• seaborn
• bokeh
• fbprophet
• Statsmodel
LIBRARIES USED IN ANALYSIS

 LOGISTIC REGRESSION
 POLYNOMIAL REGRESSION
 TIME SERIES FORECASTING
ALGORITHM USED FOR VISUALIZATION AND
PREDICTION

China : 1st Epicentre
 on 17th April there was a sudden rise in Death and Confirmed cases.
CASES IN EPICENTRES

CASES IN EPICENTRES
Italy: 2nd Epicentre
Italy: 2nd Epicentre
 has more than 1L confirmed cases on 30th
March.
A strong decline was seen on 11th May with
just 744 cases reported in a day.
The highest number of deaths in Italy was
seen on 27th March with 919 deaths reported.

CASES IN EPICENTRES
US : 3rd Epicentre
 now leads with 31.06% of the confirmed
cases all over the world.
On 24th April the confirmed cases reached
a peak of 36k in a day.
increase has been seen in the deaths
reported by US with highest number of
deaths(4591) recorded on 16th April.

 We can see that by 31st May (End of Lockdown 4) more than
1.56L confirmed cases are predicted as per this model with
upper limit of around 1.61L.
 If we consider logistic growth, between mid July to December
the daily number of confirmed cases will be rising and by Jan
2021 we will be at the peak with daily increase being constant
thereafter.
 ARIMA is predicting 1.42L confirmed cases on 31st May.
 From the forecast we see between mid May and mid-August
we will see a drastic increase in the number of active cases and
by end September all the available hospital beds in India will
be occupied.
FUTURE PREDICTION IN INDIA

CONCLUSION
 The Project “Covid-19 visualisation and prediction” is designed in order to provide a quicker
way to learn the status of one’s health and take prevention measures as required.
 Since the project is under development and not much information is provided on how to
completely cure the illness, many major modification can be done on the software in future.
 Maintaining the project is also easy which can be easily understandable. Maintaining the
details in the dataset is manageable.