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South East Asia Pharmaceutical Markets Jamie Davies October 2014

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South East Asia Pharmaceutical Markets Jamie Davies October 2014

  1. 1. Pharma Insight Briefings - Asia Dynamics & Trends That Make South East Asia’s Pharma Market Unique And Challenging CPhI Worldwide Pre-Connect Conference, Paris, France Thursday 9th October 2014, 14.15-15.30, Room 520A & 520B Jamie Davies, Head of Pharmaceuticals, Medical Devices & Healthcare www.businessmonitor.com
  2. 2. Overview Market Forecasts Intellectual Property Risk/Reward Index 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Protectionism Pricing & Reimbursement Universal Political Risk Healthcare Economic Outlook Competitive Landscape Case Study
  3. 3. 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 Regional Market Forecast 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Pharmaceutical Sales In South East Asia (USDbn) Laos Brunei Cambodia Myanmar Singapore Malaysia 7.8% CAGR Philippines Vietnam Thailand Indonesia 14.4% CAGR 8.8% CAGR 9.4% CAGR 11.9% CAGR 7.1% CAGR 6.4% CAGR 14.1% CAGR 6.4% CAGR 8.4% CAGR CAGR = compound annual growth rate. Source: BMI
  4. 4. Protectionism Image: Indonesia’s National Agency for Drug and Food Control (BPOM; Badan Pengawas Obat dan Makanan) • Local manufacturing requirements • Restrictions on foreign investment • Preferential purchasing • Local clinical trials BMI View: Partnerships are key
  5. 5. Intellectual Property Image: Inspection of the Government Pharmaceutical Organization (GPO)’s new production facility in Pathumthani Province, Thailand. • Compulsory licences • Regulatory data protection • Incremental innovation • Country-specific rules BMI View: Regulations will improve
  6. 6. Pricing & Reimbursement Image: Community groups and organisations from the health sector protesting in Manila, the Philippines, about the lack of lower pharmaceutical prices from the Cheaper Medicine Act. • Price controls • Promotion of generic drugs • National drug lists • Reference pricing BMI View: More health economics
  7. 7. Political Risk Population Muslim Buddhist Christian Folk religion Unaffiliated Hindu Other religion Brunei 400,000 300,400 34,400 37,600 24,800 1,600 1,200 400 Cambodia 14,140,000 282,800 13,701,660 56,560 84,840 28,280 0 0 Indonesia 239,870,000 209,166,640 1,679,090 23,747,130 719,610 240,000 4,077,790 239,870 Laos 6,200,000 0 4,092,000 93,000 1,903,400 55,800 0 43,400 Malaysia 28,400,000 18,090,800 5,026,800 2,669,600 653,200 198,800 1,704,000 56,800 Myanmar 47,960,000 1,918,400 38,415,960 3,740,880 2,781,680 239,800 815,320 9,920 Philippines 93,260,000 10,329,300 3,453,000 73,758,760 2,398,900 4,193,260 0 93,260 Singapore 5,090,000 727,870 1,725,510 926,380 117,070 834,760 264,680 493,730 Thailand 69,120,000 3,801,600 64,419,840 622,080 60,000 207,360 69,120 0 Vietnam 87,850,000 175,700 14,407,400 7,203,700 39,796,050 26,003,600 0 351,400 Total 592,290,000 244,793,510 146,955,660 112,855,690 48,539,550 32,003,260 6,932,110 1,288,780 Source: The Global Religious Landscape - A Report on the Size and Distribution of the World’s Major Religious Groups as of 2010, Pew Research Center. High proportion of population Low proportion of population
  8. 8. Economic Outlook • ASEAN Economic Community • Trans-Pacific Partnership • China rebalancing • Currency appreciation/depreciation BMI View: A global outperformer Five-Year Forecast For Change In Exchange Rate Versus US Dollar (2013-18) -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Brunei dollar Malaysian ringgit Singapore dollar Thai baht Vietnamese dong Philippine peso Cambodia riel Lao kip Indonesian rupiah Myanmar kyat Source: BMI
  9. 9. Universal Healthcare Image: Health City Novena, Singapore. • Economically and politically beneficial • Minimum wealth threshold • Different interpretations • Inevitable delays BMI View: Increasingly integral to politics
  10. 10. Competitive Landscape Image: Singapore’s Biopolis, a biomedical R&D centre • Widespread presence of multinationals • Emergence of local firms • More R&D • Competition from India and China BMI View: Region-specific strategy vital
  11. 11. Risk/Reward Index Market expenditure Spending per capita Market growth Urban/rural split Pensionable population Population growth Patent respect Policy enforcement Approvals expediency Economic diligence Policy continuity Lack of bureaucracy Legal diligence Rewards Risks Market Rewards Country Rewards Market Risks Country Risks Risk/Reward Index Business transparency Risk/Reward Index scores 0 – 100. O = least attractive market; 100 = most attractive market. Source: BMI
  12. 12. 30 25 20 15 10 5 Risk/Reward Index Risk/Reward Profile Of South East Asia Pharmaceutical Markets Low Reward/Low Risk High Reward/Low Risk Malaysia Low Reward/High Risk High Reward/High Risk 15 20 25 30 35 Risks Rewards Singapore Brunei Darussalam Myanmar Laos Cambodia Thailand Philippines Vietnam Indonesia Source: BMI
  13. 13. Case Study: Vietnam 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Poorest 2nd 3rd “missing middle” 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th Highest Health Insurance Coverage In Vietnam By Economic Decile In 2010 Source: Estimates based on data from the Vietnam Living Standards Measurement Survey, 2010. • Universal healthcare being introduced • Poor enforcement • High medicine prices • Hospital over-crowding BMI View: Most promising in region
  14. 14. Summary • Strong growth forecast for South East Asia, but with risks: o Protectionism, intellectual property, and pricing & reimbursement • Regional economy to outperform • Universal healthcare to increasingly become a political tool • Companies must adopt South East Asia-specific strategies • A diverse region undergoing economic and regulatory unification

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