Fast Future (02/2012)

FAST FUTURE!
Fifteen Uber-Trends that Will Rock the World

And What AEC Firms Must Do to Survive
and Thrive on the Road Ahead

Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 1

 Strategy
 Leadership
 Marketing
 Operations
 Transition

Consulting □ Training □ Speaking □ Research

Helping professional services firms and their leaders
to achieve extraordinary outcomes in business and life.


1. Economy and Industry

2. Fifteen Future Fast Trends

3. Organization Response

4. Personal Action Planning


Source: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdp_glance.htm


Monthly unemployment rate, domestic U.S.
12

10

8

6

4

2

0
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics- http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm


Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics- http://www.bls.gov/web/laus/mstrtcr1.gif


2011 Forecast – USA Today & IHS Global Insight
4

Eleven Leading Indicators
3 + Real federal funds rate
+ Interest rate yield curve
+ Corporate bond spread
2 + Hours worked
+ Building permits
+ Non-defense capital goods orders
1 + Money supply
+ Stock prices
+ ISM export orders index
+ Crude oil prices
0
+ Light vehicle sales

Source: http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/Economic-Outlook/35290148/1


USA 29.2

Florida 79.5

Texas 59.8
USA
FL
North Carolina 51.9
TX

California 37.1 NC
CA
% Change South Carolina 28.3
SC
New Jersey 16.5 NJ
MA
MA 10.4
MI
MI 7.6
NY
NY 2.6 ND

-5.5 ND

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Source: U.S. Census Bureau at www.census.gov

Population Distribution (k)
40000

35000
CA, TX, NY, FL
30000 Average State Size

All States and DC 6.14 M
25000 Sub Top 4 (100 M, 33%) 4.50 M
Sub Top 10 (166 M, 54%) 3.52 M
20000
IL, PA, OH, MI, GA, NC
15000

10000

5000

0
1 11 21 31 41 51


Source: http://www.america2050.org/megaregions.html

65

60

55

50
Baseline

45
ABI

40
Source: www.aia.org

35


“We saw nearly identical conditions in November and December of
2010 only to see momentum sputter and billings fall into negative
territory as we moved through 2011, so it’s too early to be sure that
we are in a full recovery mode. Nevertheless, this is very good news
for the design and construction industry and it’s entirely possible
conditions will slowly continue to improve as the year progresses.”

AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA.

Source: http://www.aia.org/press/AIAB092722


2012 McGraw HIS Global Moody’s FMI Reed Associated
Consensus Hill Insight Economic Construction Builders &
.com Data Contractors

Non Residential 2.1 -2.5 0.2 3.9 2.0 5.3 3.8
Total
Commercial Total 5.6 5.6 3.9 8.8 2.4 5.9 6.9

Office 4.3 3.0 -3.1 9.1 2.2 7.8 6.8

Retail/Other 5.0 4.1 4.7 6.8 2.5 4.7 7.2

Hotel 10.2 23.3 7.1 18.1 2.4 4.4 6.0

Industrial Total 6.0 1.1 8.8 10.3 -2.3 12.3 5.7

Institutional -0.1 -7.9 -0.8 2.3 2.3 3.3 0.0
Total
Health 4.5 2.4 4.6 5.1 2.5 4.7 8.0

Education -1.7 -10.7 -3.1 3.2 1.4 3.1 -4.0

Religious 5.1 -1.3 25.3 - -2.0 -0.2 4.0

Public Safety -3.8 -15.9 - -0.3 3.4 -2.2 -4.0

Amusement/Rec. 0.2 -16.3 1.3 - 7.9 5.4 2.8

Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved.

2013 McGraw HIS Global Moody’s FMI Reed Associated
Consensus Hill Insight Economic Construction Builders &
.com Data Contractors

Non Residential 6.4 8.7 4.2 6.5 4.5 8.1 6.1
Total
Commercial 11.4 17.9 17.7 12.1 5.4 9.0 6.2
Total
Office 9.6 12.8 11.7 11.8 5.1 10.3 6.0
Retail/Other 9.9 22.1 9.6 8.6 5.3 7.7 6.0
Hotel 19.7 16.8 47.3 29.2 7.1 9.9 8.0
Industrial Total 10.2 8.7 10.9 16.1 4.1 13.3 8.2
Institutional 3.6 2.8 0.6 4.8 3.6 6.3 3.5
Total
Health 5.3 3.2 1.0 6.7 4.1 8.9 8.0
Education 3.1 1.5 0.8 5.5 3.3 5.4 2.0
Religious 6.3 2.4 13.9 - 4.1 72 4.0
Public Safety 0.3 -4.1 - 3.1 3.3 2.0 -3.0
Amusement/Rec 6.5 13.6 4.5 - 4.7 6.9 3.0


February 3, 2012
CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT HITS TWO-YEAR HIGH IN JANUARY
BUT INDUSTRY'S 17.7 PERCENT UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE REMAINS DOUBLE OVERALL RATE
"Although it's great news that the industry has added 52,000 jobs in the past two months, the
unemployment rate in construction is still double that of the overall economy, and construction
employment remains at 1996 levels," said. "It will take another month or two to see if the recent
job growth reflects a sustained pickup or merely acceleration of homebuilding and highway
projects that normally halt when the ground freezes in December and January."
Ken Simonson, AGC Chief Economist
"Without adequate long-term funding for infrastructure, competitive
tax rates and fewer costly regulatory hurdles, the construction industry may lose
many of the jobs it has gained in the past year.”
Stephen E. Sandherr, AGC Chief Executive Officer

Source: http://www.agc.org/cs/news_media/press_room/press_release?pressrelease.id=1020


 Economic uncertainty
 Tight credit and lending
 Overbuilt markets
 Weak municipal bond market
 Federal budget deficit
 Energy (oil) prices


Enterprise
Vision/ Leadership Leadership
Business
Mission Alignment Development
Strategy

Strategic Business
Operational Ownership
Marketing Development
Excellence Transition
Framework Leverage


Urbanization Technology
Life and Living
Globalization Diversity
Infrastructure
Knowledge and Know How Volatility and Change
Fluid Supply Chain
Small Firm
Meritocracy Community
Consumer Power
Energy and Environment

Information

Change Technology Globalization

Meritocracy


Rapid technological development and
innovation will change everything.

And the pace of the change is accelerating.


Computers. Information. Nanotech. Biotech. Communication.


Wealth
Knowledge Society
Power
Family
Communication

The geometric explosion of information will fundamentally
transform all human endeavor.


The world will experience increasing global connectivity –
on virtually every dimension possible.


What one does will supplant who one is –
in a more democratic, merit-based world of
broadening economic opportunity.


The era of stability and predictability is
over. Near constant
volatility, uncertainty, and change in the
global economy will become the norm.


Energy &
Consumer Supply Chain Small Firm Infrastructure
Environment


The age of the consumer is here - buyers (not
sellers) will control the market.


The global supply chain will include a continuously churning, mutating, and
evolving mix of providers, suppliers, partners, and competitors.


Millions of (very) small firms will compete
successfully on the global stage.


NAICS Type No. of Firms Total Receipts

54131 Architectural Services 24,283 $37,149,909
54132 Landscape Architectural Services 6,088 $4,365,336
54133 Engineering Services 47,714 $187,531,866
54134 Drafting Services 3,146 $1,083,581
54135 Building Inspection Services 5,673 $1,830,059
54136 Geophysical Surveying/Mapping 729 $3,093,348
54137 Surveying and Mapping (Ex Geo) 9,567 $6,760,251
54141 Interior Design Services 13,492 $9,799,480
54162 Environmental Consulting Services 8,274 $10,423,169

Total 118,966 $262,036,999

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Business Database, 2007

2.1 1.6
6.7
Employees
11.5
0-4
5-9
10-19
18.6 59.4 20-49
50-99
100+

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Business Database, 2007


1800 firms $13-100M

Largest Smallest
Firms Firms

10,000 firms with 20-100 staff
100 firms over $100M
100,000 firms with staff <20


Those who build today will lead the world tomorrow.


Alternative energy will gain in
importance - but petroleum will be king.

Environmental health will become intrinsically important
worldwide – though always balanced by economics.


Diversity

Healthy
Urbanization
Living

Community Knowledge


The majority will be defined by consensus, alignment,
and collaboration – and nothing else.


Peoples around the world will live healthier (longer and better)
lives.


Expertise will become both
the language and currency
of the global realm.


Living in cities and city-states will become increasingly
attractive - to nearly everyone.


12th largest city in China, 48th
largest in the world;


# China
USA
India

0 5 10 15 20


Source: http://www.america2050.org/megaregions.html

Engaging in new communities will become
increasingly important and meaningful.


“The future ain’t what it used to be.”
Yogi Berra


“Change is not necessary…
Survival is not mandatory.”

W. Edwards Deming


Enterprise
Overarching Leadership Leadership
Business
Objective Alignment Development
Strategy

Strategic Business
Operational Ownership
Marketing Development
Excellence Transition
Framework Leverage


The Road Not Taken

TWO roads diverged in a yellow
wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I
could
To where it bent in the
undergrowth;

Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because it was grassy and wanted
wear;
Though as for that the passing there
Had worn them really about the
same,

And both that morning equally lay
In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I kept the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to
way,
I doubted if I should ever come
back.

I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:

Pundits Extraordinary
Professionals!
Knowledge

Zombies Laborers

Effort Modified after Jim Cathcart


“Execution is the single biggest issue
facing business today.”
Larry Bossidy and Ram Charan


No. Action Outcome Lead Due Date Notes

1
2
3
4
5


1. Pay Attention
2. Ask Questions
3. Advise Others
4. Take Action

Copyright Kleinfelder, 2011. Used with permission.


“Make no small plans;
they have no magic to stir men’s blood.”
Daniel Burnham


“Whether you think you can, or
think you can’t …you’re right.”
Henry Ford


Helping firms and their leaders to achieve
extraordinary outcomes in business and life.

john@jdoehring.com


Fast Future (02/2012)

Recomendados

Recomendados

Más contenido relacionado

Destacado

Destacado (18)

Similar a Fast Future (02/2012)

Similar a Fast Future (02/2012) (11)

Último

Último (20)

Fast Future (02/2012)