1.
Practical Techniques for
Predicting the Future
Jesse Schell
@jesseschell
TFNW 2015

2.
$
$
$ $
$
$

3.
+ =
PsychologyTechnology Destiny

4.
CrystalBallSociety.com

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5 patterns

6.
Pattern1
Foundational Technology
Makes the Biggest Changes

7.
FOUNDATION
Decoration

8.
Mickey Mouse’s First Cartoon?

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Steamboat Willie (November, 1928)

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Plane Crazy (May, 1928)

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Pattern2
The Hype Curve

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The Hype Curve

13.
Pattern3
Disruption

14.
Pattern4
Technology Mostly Diverges

15.
Pattern5
History Keeps Repeating

16.
1849!

17.
2011
Palmer
Luckey
(age 20)
1968
Ivan
Sutherland
1884
Nipkow
Disk
1927
Philo
Farnsworth
(age 20)
TV
VR
43 Years Later
43 Years Later

18.
Foundational Technology
Makes the Biggest Changes
The Hype Curve
Disruption
Technology Mostly Diverges
History Keeps Repeating5
4
3
1
2
Send your predictions to me!
Jesse@SchellGames.com
Thanks!
Find slides at:
JesseSchell.com