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# Estimation techniques workshop - february 2014

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### Estimation techniques workshop - february 2014

1. 1. Agile in Pills Training 1
2. 2. Team Name Estimation Techniques Agile in Pills Training 2
3. 3. Team name Estimation Techniques Why ? My teams all use planning poker to estimate effort, however I’ve noticed several things starting to happen that are fairly common in teams using this estimation technique: People get: - Very caught up in the actual number, forgetting that it’s just an estimate and wrong anyway. - Very emotionally invested in being “right”, they start defending their estimates, or giving in to the majority without discussion. - There is confusion between team members about the proper way to estimate effort. 80/20 Rule When the real deal when estimating effort is to get a Shared Understanding and Consensus, it is just a way to plan and know where we are against the plan. L.E.B.E Rule Agile in Pills Training 3
4. 4. Team name Estimation Techniques So, what’s the goal ? The real deal when estimating effort is to get a Shared Understanding and Consensus, it is just a way to plan and know where we are against the plan. 80/20 Rule Getting about 80% right estimates with 20% of the effort Relative estimate vs. absolute L.E.B.E Rule Less Effort Better Estimates Agile in Pills Training 4
5. 5. Team name Estimation Techniques The Workshop Content Rules - 4 Relative Estimation 10 Minutes duration per exercise. - Team had to estimate items using a diff. technique. - 1 4 Exercises. Each team got a set of cards with items written on them. - Each team got the same items so we could compare between teams at the end. - When each team finished estimating, the facilitator wrote results per team in a flip chart/white board, and start the discussion about the technique. - The facilitator shared correct answers once each team has completed each exercise. - A general discussion is hold about all techniques and the team decides where we go from here Absolute Estimates 2 3 Affinity estimation Planning Poker Agile in Pills Training 5
6. 6. Team name Estimation Techniques Exercise 1: Absolute Estimates Description The items to be estimated are dogs. Instructions - Each team have to estimate the weight of each dog(item) in kilograms - Each team discuss about the item to get shared understanding - After consensus, the team should decide what estimate would be assigned to each dog (item) Special note - To be able to compare each estimation technique, all teams should try their best to get results as soon as they can. Agile in Pills Training 6
7. 7. Team name Estimation Techniques Exercise 1: Absolute Estimates Results Item Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Correct Answer Chihuahua 3 Great Dane 90 Staffordshire Bull Terrier 17 Appalachian Mountain Dog 0 Border Collie 34 American Cocker Spaniel 13 Agile in Pills Training 7
8. 8. Team name Estimation Techniques Exercise 2: Planning Poker Estimates Description The items to be estimated are country area. Remember that this technique is used for relative estimation Instructions - - Use Spain as your reference point (Value assigned to Spain Area is 3) Each team have to estimate the area of each country(item) Each team discuss about the item to get shared understanding, then each person chooses a card from their set that they think is the closes fit. Everyone displays their cards at the same time (avoid influencing other between each other). People discuss the outliers, usually the highest and lowest numbers to see of the people who selected them, had a different understanding to everyone else. After discussion, people re-vote taking in consideration anything uncovered in the discussion. Once everyone converges on a number that is selected as the estimate. If convergence is not reached by the third vote, then the team would take the highest number or majority number. Special note - To be able to compare each estimation technique, all teams should try their best to get results as soon as they can. Agile in Pills Training 8
9. 9. Team name Estimation Techniques Exercise 2: Planning Poker Results Item Spain Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Correct Answer 3 3 3 3 3 3 China 40 Luxembourg 0 Denmark 1 South Africa 8 Belize 1 Agile in Pills Training 9
10. 10. Team name Estimation Techniques Exercise 3: Affinity Estimation Description The items to be estimated are cars volume. Remember that this technique is used for relative estimation Instructions - - - Lay out one set of planning poker cards so that you have all the numbers. Agree on a reference story, and place it next to the reference point. In this case put the card “Convertible” next to the Planning poker card identified with the number “3”. Give the stack of story cards to the first person in the team. Each person has a turn where you can either: - take a new car from the stack of story cards and place it where you think it fits, or - Move a card already on the table to a new spot if you don’t agree with it. - Note: You must always move a card if you don’t agree with the estimate rather than playing a new one - Note2: If you play a new card it means you are happy with every card on the table. After your turn you hand the cards to the next person. If you do a full circuit of the team and one card has been moved each time, then you discuss it before continuing. - Note: People could explain why they are placing a card at a certain number, but remember, open discussion just when a card was moved. Agile in Pills Training 10
11. 11. Team name Estimation Techniques Exercise 3: Affinity Estimation Results Item Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Correct Answer 3 3 3 3 3 3 Motorbike Startship enterprize SUV Minivan Convertible Bus Agile in Pills Training 11
12. 12. Team name Estimation Techniques Exercise 4: Relative Estimation Description The items to be estimated are Animal weight. Remember that this technique is used for relative estimation Instructions - Take all story cards and arrange them on the table in ascending size (ignore the reference point for now) Decide what is bigger and what’s the same size (It can be done all team members together) Once you the team has arranged all cards, only then assign numbers, starting with the reference point (the “impala” in this case) Agile in Pills Training 12
13. 13. Team name Estimation Techniques Exercise 4: Relative estimation Results Item Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Correct Answer 3 3 3 3 3 3 Elephant Giraffe Elephant shrew crocodile snake impala Agile in Pills Training 13
14. 14. Team name Estimation Techniques Conclusions What did we learn - Ask the teams to take a look at all results and see what they have noticed. - Ask them about the importance of having the same reference point (having 5 teams working together on a single backlog) - Ask the team if they would change anything about the way that they estimate based on what we learn. - Try to get an answer as action item to be implemented during the next sprint Materials required • • • • • • Cards with the items on them for each team Planning poker cards for each person A flipchart and marker to write up the results of each round for people to see A stopwatch or cellphone with timing functionality Some team members keen to learn about estimation, I did the workshop with 5 groups of 3-4 people. An hour time box is sufficient if your team are used to estimating. Maybe more if your teams are new to it Agile in Pills Training 14
15. 15. Team name Estimation Techniques Enjoy yourself “As with any discipline, nothing beats practice coupled with an ongoing desire to learn.” Be truthful Be open Be enthusiastic Agile in Pills Training 15
16. 16. Team name Estimation Techniques Q&A Questions & Suggestions Thank you Muchas gracias Merci beaucoup Agile in Pills Training 16
17. 17. Agile in Pills Training 17