3. The regional climate initiative in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic was initiated by then governor George Pataki of New York, invited 11 governors to participate in the development of a cap and trade program
7. In 2005, seven states entered into a Memorandum of Understanding, and then a Model Rule in 2006 for a Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) [SLIDE 3]
11. RGGI initially regulates only power plant emissions, and only those plants generating more than 25 MW of power (which is about 95% of generating capacity from power plants)
12. Only regulates carbon dioxide emissions, unlike the UNFCCC/Kyoto Protocol, EU-ETS or some other regional initiatives
16. Emissions are divided between the participating states, based on historical emissions and other considerations [SLIDE 6]
17. The emissions budgets of each respective state are then divided up among the regulated entities in each state, and they are provided allowances, with each allowance equal to 1 ton of carbon
18. Each entity must hold a number of allowances equal to their allocation at a prescribed point each year.
28. Stimulate or reward investment in the development of innovative carbon emissions abatement technologies
29. Could be more than a billion dollars annually for RGGI, but much, much less right now
30. Benefits of an auction v. free allocation system for allowances:
31. Fairness: air is a commonly held resource, to be managed for the benefit of the public.
32. Thus, it is fair to require polluters to pay the public for the use of that resource, and to hold them responsible for the costs their pollution imposes on society;
37. This may seem counter-intuitive, but in offering power into the market, a generator has to decide whether it is more profitable to produce electric power and expend the necessary CO2 allowances to do so, or not to produce electricity and instead sell its allowances to others.
38. If it decides to offer power, it is foregoing the opportunity to sell the allowances in favor of consuming the allowances;
39. This “opportunity cost,” which is the market price of the allowances, is a variable cost that will be included in generators’ marginal cost;
40. So, under a free allocation scheme, consumer are subjected to increased costs for power without any of the money being funneled back for either rebates or other programs that would lower their costs, e.g. energy efficiency, renewable development or rebates;
41. AND it provides a windfall to the power operators; we’ve seen this in the EU-ETS, and UK where windfall estimated at $500 million per year.
42. Overall, 86% of carbon dioxide allocation allowances in RGGI states have been auctioned
44. Since September 2008 bidders, including electric utilities, manufacturers, financial institutions, environmental groups, and individuals have participated in the RGGI auctions for CO2 allowances
45. Total amount of proceeds more than $871 million since September of 2008
46. Though should be emphasized that allowances only selling for $1.89 now, which indicates that demand is not that high
48. Cap set in 2004 at 188 million tons, anticipating this would be exceeded by 2008, but mild weather and slowing economy caused emissions to decrease from 184.5 million tons in 2005 to 172.4 in 2007
49.
50. RGGI permits limited offsets by power plants to meet their goals if regional spot price for allowances reach a certain level, so similar to the “safety valve” mechanism in the Bingaman bill
51. Similar to CDM or JI, but very limited in scope of projects and amount (5% of reported emissions if allowance price reaches $7.00) [SLIDE 8]
53. One of the problems that a regional cap and trade system (or a state system, e.g. California’s) might create is “leakage,” i.e. regulated power entities may begin to purchase significant amount of (presumably cheaper) power from:
60. What kind of “compacts” does the Clause prohibit absent Congressional approval?
61. Supreme Court in U.S. Steel Corp. v. Multistate Tax Commission said that only inter-state agreements that “increase the political power or influence of a state” and thus encroach on the “full and free exercise of the Federal authority” are subject to the Compact Clause
64. Similar Connecticut and Massachusetts statutes authorize out-of-state banking companies to purchase an in-state bank if the prospective purchasing bank is found in another New England state that accords reciprocal privileges to the enacting state’s banks;
65. Petitioners argued, inter alia, that this violated the Compact Clause because the statutes allegedly constituted a pact by Ct. and MA to exclude non-New England banks
67. Court did find that both legislatures favored the establishment of regional banking in New England, and there was evidence of cooperation among legislators, officials, bankers, and others in the two States in studying the idea and lobbying for the statutes.
71. The application of the Compact Clause is limited to agreements that are 'directed to the formation of any combination tending to the increase of political power in the States, which may encroach upon or interfere with the just supremacy of the United States
72. But here, any state statute that conflicted with a federal mandate, e.g. FDIC requirements, would be preempted, rendering a Compact Clause argument academic
74. RGGI does establish a regional organization, which was signaled out by the Northeast Bancorp court as potentially problematic [SLIDE 13]
75. Though, while it does talk about a forum for “collective deliberation” in one provision, another part of the MOU establishment the Regional Organization expressly says it has no “regulatory or enforcement” authority, that being left to the individual states;
76. No enforcement mechanism for RGGI’s mandates (clearly a weakness), but maybe that also means it doesn’t increase the political power of the states since no binding enforcement;
77. While entities within a state subject to state laws and regulations, no regional enforcement provided for
78. Might be able to argue that now that federal government is regulating GHGs through Clean Air Act, state initiatives can no longer be viewed as usurping power, but rather are wholly concordant with federal objectives
79. Helpful that CAA efforts pretty capacious in terms of sectors and objectives, i.e. they seek to reduce emissions more than regional initiatives.
81. Western Governors Association, comprised of governors from 19 States, had endorsed regional initiatives to address climate change in 2006
82. In 2007, five governors, from California, Arizona, Washington, New Mexico and Oregon launched the Western Climate Initiative (WCI), subsequently joined by Governor of Utah and premiers of Manitoba and British Columbia
97. Important issue, because if you just use generated emissions by power plant, might not include imports from other states not subject to regulation [SLIDE 19]
111. States were to establish Work Plan to establish targets for GHG emission reductions and timeframes consistent with states’ targets within 8 months, so by mid-2008;
112. Environmental agencies directed to establish cap and timeline to be consistent with prior commitments by the states that are participating, bounding the target between 60-80% below 1990 levels by 2050
114. In separate document, a number of these states agreed to promote energy efficiency, accelerate development of carbon capture and sequestration, enhanced regional infrastructure to develop and delivery low and no-carbon fuels, goal of generating 10% of region’s electricity from renewables by 2015 and 30% by 2030
125. 60% of electricity in region produced by coal, about 10% above national average
126. Total GHG emissions from agriculture in five of the six states (Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) are above 10 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent, placing these states’ agricultural sectors among the top-12 emitters, nationally
127. On the other hand, program appears moribund at this point (website isn’t even up), though some initiatives proceeding via the Midwestern Governor’s Association
129. So, overall, we now have 22 states participating in three regional GHG pacts, with only the South as an outlier [SLIDE 21]
130. At the same time, should emphasize that regional initiatives, at least current incarnations, are not a panacea:
131. U.S. Energy Information Agency projects the national carbon dioxide emissions will equal 8.115 billion metric tons annually in 2030, up 63% from 1990 levels, with an average increase of 1.2% annually
132. By contrast, if regional initiatives achieve quantitative reduction targets, it would result in a reduction of just 460 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 2020, or a reduction of just 6.38% from business as usual scenario
134. On the other hand, some benefits of these initiatives include:
135. Educating the public about these issues and enlisting their buy-in to such efforts, which in turn can exert pressure on federal government
136. Federal government might also feel pressure from regulated entities to establish a comprehensive federal approach to avoid a patchwork of regional mandates;
137. Can serve as a laboratory to establish what works and doesn’t work as we seek to develop federal regulatory policies;
138. Can reduce fear of states being put at competitive disadvantage if they develop programs to reduce emissions
139. Storm clouds in terms of participation as consequence of GOP gains in 2010 mid-term:
140. Bill proceeding in NH legislature to withdraw it from RGGI, ditto in Michigan for MGGRA
141. States starting to funnel off auction funds to deal with large budget deficits