This is the Saturday Economist Forecast Update for June 2021. Available with Quarterly Updates forr members of The Saturday Economist Club and Premium Subscribers.

1. The Saturday Economist
Forecast Update
June 2021
The Saturday Economist . com

2. -10
-7.5
-5
-2.5
0
2.5
5
7.5
10
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
2.00
2.00
2.50
5.50
7.25
-9.90
Forecasts GDP %
The Saturday Economist

3. 400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Gross Domestic Product: chained volume measures: Seasonally adjusted £m
ABMI
Forecasts GDP
The Saturday Economist
Trend Rate 1.95%

4. 75
85
95
105
115
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
TOTAL GVA BASE PRICES YBFR
Forecasts GDP
The Saturday Economist
Trend Rate 2.0%%

5. 0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
2.00
2.00
2.25
2.30
2.50
0.50
Forecasts Inflation CPI
The Saturday Economist

6. 2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
3.80
3.80
3.80
4.00
4.50
5.00
Forecasts Unemployment %
The Saturday Economist

7. 0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2021/22 Fcst
£304.0 Billion
£63.0 Billion
Data : ONS
The Saturday Economist Borrowing
£191.1 Billion
The Saturday Economist

8. 0
100
200
300
400
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
71.9
81.6
99.2
195.0
304.0
63.0
FORECASTS Borrowing £ Bill
The Saturday Economist
The Saturday Economist

9. 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
2,625.0
2,550.0
2,450.0
2,350.0
2,137.0
1,798.0
FORECASTS Public Sector Debt £ Bill
The Saturday Economist
84.4%
97.4%
93.7%
90.4%
90.0%
88.7%
The Saturday Economist

10. Universal Credit Millions
The Saturday Economist TSEL Forecasts
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2021 Q2 Q3 Q4
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2021 Q2 Q3 Q4
0.0
1.5
2.0
4.7
Furlough Millions
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2021 Q2 Q3 Q4
6.2
5.0
5.0
5.0
U Rate %
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2021 Q2 Q3 Q4
2.2
1.8
1.7
1.7
U Rate Millions
The Saturday Economist

11. The Saturday Economist
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
2.00
2.00
2.50
5.50
7.25
-9.90
1.30
TSEL FORECASTS GDP
Real Growth 15% over three years
Nominal Growth over 21% …
TSEL GDP(O) Model
The Saturday Economist

12. The Saturday Economist
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Service Sector Index
-9.0%
1.6%
1.4%
Services Sector
1.6%
1.8%
+6.5%
+5.5%
Trend Rate 2.3%
The Saturday Economist

13. The Saturday Economist Manufacturing Sector
Manufacturing
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
-9.5%
1.1%
2.3%
-1.8%
+9.5%
+5.5%
Trend Rate 1.0%
The Saturday Economist

14. The Saturday Economist
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Construction
-14.1%
1.6%
0.0%
6.1% 1.8% +17.5%
4.1%
Construction
The Saturday Economist

15. 120
135
150
165
180
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
The Saturday Economist Productivity
The Saturday Economist

16. Sector 2021 Growth
Restaurants, Hotels 42%
Clothing 32%
Net Tourism 88%
Transport 15%
Household Spend 8%
The Saturday Economist

17. The Saturday Economist
Forecast Update
June 2021
The Saturday Economist . com