I2b. 2 [lecture] future. anticipate changes
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The document discusses various techniques for understanding and influencing the future, including: 1) Mapping the future using models like the iceberg model to understand underlying trends and possible scenarios like the blue, green, and orange worlds. 2) Analyzing the key sources of gradual change like technology, people, and politics/economy to inform scenarios. 3) Influencing the future through leadership, framing issues and opportunities, and planning for strategic change management.
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I2b. 2 [lecture] future. anticipate changes
- 1. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com i2b/2. Practice. Future Anticipate changes Josep Mª Monguet The Lion King, 1994
- 2. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Trying to understand the future Levels, difficulties and values of forecasting Key sources of gradual changes. Mapping the future Iceberg model. Green blue & orange models. From ego to eco. Influencing the future The future is in the past and in the present Summary
- 3. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Summary Understanding the future What is changing? Mapping the future Modelling change Influencing the future Action for change
- 4. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Anticipate the changes Trying to understand the future Understanding the future What is changing? Mapping the future Modelling change Influencing the future Action for change
- 5. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Trying to understand the future Many levels of future Tactical Short term domestic & business interest Medium & long term perspective. Society evolution Strategic
- 6. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Trying to understand the future Forecasting limitations Assumptions Specialisation Short term
- 7. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Trying to understand the future Forecasting limitations
- 8. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Trying to understand the future Looking at a certain distance ...for value Scenarios
- 9. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Trying to understand the future Looking at a certain distance ...for value Changing people’s minds Social change Thinking about future Scenarios
- 10. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Trying to understand the future Looking at a certain distance ...for value Decision making Guide action Strategy Thinking about future
- 11. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Trying to understand the future Key sources of gradual changes. Technology
- 12. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Trying to understand the future Key sources of gradual changes. People
- 13. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Trying to understand the future Key sources of gradual changes. Politics & economy
- 14. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Trying to understand the future Case / From sources of change to decisions
- 15. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Trying to understand the future Case / From sources of change to decisions Overcoming Specialisation ... Etc. Short term Assumptions Guide action / Strategy Decision making Changing people’s minds Social change
- 16. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Trying to understand the future Case / From sources of change to decisions
- 17. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Trying to understand the future Case / From sources of change to decisions Guide action / Strategy Decision making Changing people’s minds Social change Overcoming Specialisation ... Etc. Short term Assumptions
- 18. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Anticipate the changes Mapping the future Understanding the future What is changing? Mapping the future Modelling change Influencing the future Action for change
- 19. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Mapping the future Iceberg model Events and crises Patterns Underlying structures Mental models / Assumptions System
- 20. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Mapping the future Iceberg model Events and crises Patterns Underlying structures Mental models / Assumptions System
- 21. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Mapping the future Prioritising trends
- 22. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Mapping the future Considering complementary scenarios Orange model Blue model Green model Collective Individual Integrated Fragmented Adapted from
- 23. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Mapping the future Considering complementary scenarios Orange model Blue model Green model Collective Individual Integrated Fragmented Big companies Consumer preferences Corporate career Profit & market leadership. Adapted from
- 24. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Mapping the future Considering complementary scenarios Orange model Blue model Green model Collective Individual Integrated Fragmented Networked economy. High-tech business model. Flexibility & no fixed costs. Adapted from
- 25. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Mapping the future Considering complementary scenarios Orange model Blue model Green model Collective Individual Integrated Fragmented Social & green responsibility. Ethics & environment care. Society & business aligned. Adapted from
- 26. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Mapping the future Possible scenarios. Blue world Blue model
- 27. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Mapping the future Possible scenarios. Blue world Big company capitalism is king Consumer preferences dominate Corporate career separates the haves from the have-nots. How to compete? - Scale is a crucial differentiator. - Mega-corporations global competition for talent & resources . - Constant innovation keeping in pace with customer demands. Blue model
- 28. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Mapping the future Possible scenarios. Green world Green model
- 29. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Mapping the future Possible scenarios. Green world Companies are open, trusting & collaborative learning organisations Consumers demand ethics and environmental credentials as a top priority. How to compete? - A social and environmental conscience is demanded through the organisation and its supply chain. - Ethical values & work – life balance. Blue model Orange model Green model
- 30. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com We Me Rational Emotional Mapping the future Possible scenarios. Orange world http://global-influences.com Orange model
- 31. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Mapping the future Possible scenarios. Orange world Global businesses fragment where small is beatiful Technology empowers a low impact high-tech business model. How to compete? - Diverse mix of people on an affordable, ad hoc basis. - Flexibility, autonomy and varied challenges in return for working on a short-term contractual basis. Blue model Orange model
- 32. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com https://www.presencing.com Mapping the future Green /Orange/Blue Scenario Blue model Orange model Green model
- 33. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Anticipate the changes Influencing the future Understanding the future What is changing? Mapping the future Modelling change Influencing the future Action for change
- 34. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Influencing the future Independence of the future In 2011 UN designated Danila, born in Manila, as the 7 billionth resident of planet Earth Club of Rome 1970’s
- 35. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Influencing the future The future is in the past and in the present Scenario development Generation of scenarios and compelling ways to present them. Framing Knowledge boundaries, timeframe, People involved, etc. Search Scanning to identify signs of changeAnalysis Evaluation of evidence Categorizing signs of change
- 36. jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com Influencing the future The future is in the past and in the present Scenario development Framing Search Analysis Prioritizing opportunities Leadership Visionaries campaign Planning Strategic issues Change Management Selection of effective domain.
Editor's Notes
- Tactical - Strategic future (broad categories) From months to few years, data available, domestic political and business interest... A klot of statistics. Prices, wining parties, ... Understand what is going to change over the next years 5, 10, or 20 . Plan the short term activities to align with the desired future
- 3td Next stage ... System complex NO guess the future. 4 to 6 alternative futures. The alternatives that are reasonable possible and whit degrees of likelihood ... Things that nay be done in the business model ... Next step ... Look at who the stakeholders are in the system ... Affected by the system or affect the system. The Inventory of stakeholders ... What is going to be their position for the different alternative and changes that implies: motivations, intersts, neutrality hostility suppoort... This activity of building alternative futures is very related with changing the minds of people that is enable to envision ...mind change Reject the concept to look for the future .. . The whole system, is so complex that is stupid to try to guess the future. What may be done is replace the concept of the future by alternative futures. The alternatives that are reasonable possible and whit degrees of likelihood ... 4 to 6 alternatives could be a good number of future alternatives ...becareful to confuse with an exces of alternatives sybtesys ... Next step is having developed this alternatives futres is to look at the question of the impications for the client of each alternatives ...is an art ... To work out ... Which may be imprttant for the futrure? For each of the implications ... This are some of the things that may be done ... Things that nay be done in the business model ... Next step ... Look at who the stakeholders are in the system ... Affected by the system or affect the system. The Inventory of stakeholders ... What is going to be their position for the different alternative and changes that implies: motivations, intersts, neutrality hostility suppoort... Wildcvard step... Hurricane ? Not necessarily bad but usually . This activity of building alternative futures is very related with changing the minds of people that is enable to envision ...mind change
- 3td Next stage ... System complex NO guess the future. 4 to 6 alternative futures. The alternatives that are reasonable possible and whit degrees of likelihood ... Things that nay be done in the business model ... Next step ... Look at who the stakeholders are in the system ... Affected by the system or affect the system. The Inventory of stakeholders ... What is going to be their position for the different alternative and changes that implies: motivations, intersts, neutrality hostility suppoort... This activity of building alternative futures is very related with changing the minds of people that is enable to envision ...mind change Reject the concept to look for the future .. . The whole system, is so complex that is stupid to try to guess the future. What may be done is replace the concept of the future by alternative futures. The alternatives that are reasonable possible and whit degrees of likelihood ... 4 to 6 alternatives could be a good number of future alternatives ...becareful to confuse with an exces of alternatives sybtesys ... Next step is having developed this alternatives futres is to look at the question of the impications for the client of each alternatives ...is an art ... To work out ... Which may be imprttant for the futrure? For each of the implications ... This are some of the things that may be done ... Things that nay be done in the business model ... Next step ... Look at who the stakeholders are in the system ... Affected by the system or affect the system. The Inventory of stakeholders ... What is going to be their position for the different alternative and changes that implies: motivations, intersts, neutrality hostility suppoort... Wildcvard step... Hurricane ? Not necessarily bad but usually . This activity of building alternative futures is very related with changing the minds of people that is enable to envision ...mind change
- 3td Next stage ... System complex NO guess the future. 4 to 6 alternative futures. The alternatives that are reasonable possible and whit degrees of likelihood ... Things that nay be done in the business model ... Next step ... Look at who the stakeholders are in the system ... Affected by the system or affect the system. The Inventory of stakeholders ... What is going to be their position for the different alternative and changes that implies: motivations, intersts, neutrality hostility suppoort... This activity of building alternative futures is very related with changing the minds of people that is enable to envision ...mind change Reject the concept to look for the future .. . The whole system, is so complex that is stupid to try to guess the future. What may be done is replace the concept of the future by alternative futures. The alternatives that are reasonable possible and whit degrees of likelihood ... 4 to 6 alternatives could be a good number of future alternatives ...becareful to confuse with an exces of alternatives sybtesys ... Next step is having developed this alternatives futres is to look at the question of the impications for the client of each alternatives ...is an art ... To work out ... Which may be imprttant for the futrure? For each of the implications ... This are some of the things that may be done ... Things that nay be done in the business model ... Next step ... Look at who the stakeholders are in the system ... Affected by the system or affect the system. The Inventory of stakeholders ... What is going to be their position for the different alternative and changes that implies: motivations, intersts, neutrality hostility suppoort... Wildcvard step... Hurricane ? Not necessarily bad but usually . This activity of building alternative futures is very related with changing the minds of people that is enable to envision ...mind change
- This year sees Russian space group, Energiya, launching the world's first space hotel in partnership with US firm Orbital Technologies.** Capable of housing up to seven people, it offers spectacular views of the Earth and includes a menu crafted by celebrity chefs. It also functions as a possible emergency refuge for astronauts from the International Space Station. Human-engineered fusion was already demonstrated on a small scale. The problem has been finding ways of scaling it up to commercial levels in an efficient, economical, and environmentally benign way. ITER – previously known as the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor – aims to be the first project to achieve this. Built in southern France at a cost of €20 billion, it has taken over a decade to construct and is among the largest scientific projects ever undertaken, second only to the International Space Station. This joint research experiment is funded by the US, EU, Japan, Russia, China, India and South Korea. To demonstrate net fusion power on a large scale, the reactor must simulate the conditions at the Sun's core. For this, it uses a magnetic confinement device called a tokamak. This doughnut-shaped vacuum chamber generates a powerful magnetic field that prevents heat from touching the reactor's walls. Tiny quantities of fuel are injected into and trapped within the chamber. Here they are heated to 100 million degrees, forming a plasma. At such high temperatures, the light atomic nuclei of hydrogen become fused together, creating heavier forms of hydrogen such as deuterium and tritium. This releases neutrons and a huge amount of energy. Following its operational activation in 2022,* it is hoped that ITER will eventually produce over 500 megawatts of power, in bursts of 400 seconds or more. This compares with 16 MW for the Joint European Torus (JET) in 1997, the previous world record peak fusion power, which lasted only a few seconds. ITER will require many more years before its reactor has been sufficiently perfected. To generate the sort of continuous levels of power required for commercial operation, it will need a way of holding the plasma in place at the critical densities and temperatures. This will need refinements in the design of the chamber, such as better superconducting magnets and advances in vacuum systems. However, it could ultimately lead to a revolution in energy. If this project were to succeed, humanity would gain a virtually unlimited supply of clean, green electricity.*
- This year sees Russian space group, Energiya, launching the world's first space hotel in partnership with US firm Orbital Technologies.** Capable of housing up to seven people, it offers spectacular views of the Earth and includes a menu crafted by celebrity chefs. It also functions as a possible emergency refuge for astronauts from the International Space Station. Human-engineered fusion was already demonstrated on a small scale. The problem has been finding ways of scaling it up to commercial levels in an efficient, economical, and environmentally benign way. ITER – previously known as the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor – aims to be the first project to achieve this. Built in southern France at a cost of €20 billion, it has taken over a decade to construct and is among the largest scientific projects ever undertaken, second only to the International Space Station. This joint research experiment is funded by the US, EU, Japan, Russia, China, India and South Korea. To demonstrate net fusion power on a large scale, the reactor must simulate the conditions at the Sun's core. For this, it uses a magnetic confinement device called a tokamak. This doughnut-shaped vacuum chamber generates a powerful magnetic field that prevents heat from touching the reactor's walls. Tiny quantities of fuel are injected into and trapped within the chamber. Here they are heated to 100 million degrees, forming a plasma. At such high temperatures, the light atomic nuclei of hydrogen become fused together, creating heavier forms of hydrogen such as deuterium and tritium. This releases neutrons and a huge amount of energy. Following its operational activation in 2022,* it is hoped that ITER will eventually produce over 500 megawatts of power, in bursts of 400 seconds or more. This compares with 16 MW for the Joint European Torus (JET) in 1997, the previous world record peak fusion power, which lasted only a few seconds. ITER will require many more years before its reactor has been sufficiently perfected. To generate the sort of continuous levels of power required for commercial operation, it will need a way of holding the plasma in place at the critical densities and temperatures. This will need refinements in the design of the chamber, such as better superconducting magnets and advances in vacuum systems. However, it could ultimately lead to a revolution in energy. If this project were to succeed, humanity would gain a virtually unlimited supply of clean, green electricity.*
- System Thinking How futurists envision change as the manifestation of the underlying system that generates the change. Alternative Perspectives An exploration of leading-edge foresight methods for going “broader and deeper” in analyzing issues, including Integral Futures and Causal Layered Analysis, plus an examination of patterns of change in individual values that influence how futures are interpreted and prioritized. …
- System Thinking How futurists envision change as the manifestation of the underlying system that generates the change. Alternative Perspectives An exploration of leading-edge foresight methods for going “broader and deeper” in analyzing issues, including Integral Futures and Causal Layered Analysis, plus an examination of patterns of change in individual values that influence how futures are interpreted and prioritized. …
- Networks prosper & large companies decline. Technology empowers a low impact, high-tech business model. Maximise flexibility & minimise fixed costs. Social conscience and green responsibility. Consumers demand ethics and environmental care. Society and business align agendas. Big company capitalism Consumer preferences Corporate career Profit, growth and market leadership.
- Networks prosper & large companies decline. Technology empowers a low impact, high-tech business model. Maximise flexibility & minimise fixed costs. Social conscience and green responsibility. Consumers demand ethics and environmental care. Society and business align agendas. Big company capitalism Consumer preferences Corporate career Profit, growth and market leadership.
- Networks prosper & large companies decline. Technology empowers a low impact, high-tech business model. Maximise flexibility & minimise fixed costs. Social conscience and green responsibility. Consumers demand ethics and environmental care. Society and business align agendas. Big company capitalism Consumer preferences Corporate career Profit, growth and market leadership.
- Networks prosper & large companies decline. Technology empowers a low impact, high-tech business model. Maximise flexibility & minimise fixed costs. Social conscience and green responsibility. Consumers demand ethics and environmental care. Society and business align agendas. Big company capitalism Consumer preferences Corporate career Profit, growth and market leadership.
- Top talent is still hard to attract and retain; many senior executives use personal agents to seek out the best deals. The data profiling that drives customer management will increasingly be replicated among employees as screening and monitoring move to a new level. Sensors check their location, performance and health. The monitoring may even stretch into their private lives in an extension of today’s drug tests. Periodic health screening gives way to real-time monitoring of health, with proactive health guidance and treatment to enable staff to perform more efficiently, reduce sick leave and work for more years before needing to retire. Blue firms have a network of relationships with third-party research centres, innovation firms and universities through which they fund and source new product and process ideas. They use mechanisms such as idea sourcing platforms, challenge contests and seeding of venture funds and incubators to bring a constant flow of opportunity. While some of the ideas make it into core products and processes, many are sold on or licensed to create a selffunding innovation model. Leadership teams have a high focus on the evolution of the corporate culture, with rigorous recruitment processes to ensure new employees fit the corporate ideal. New staff are subject to compulsory corporate culture learning and development programmes. The ‘contract’ with employees is defined by the handing over of data (e.g. health, performance, possibly even private life) in return for job security. More than 30% of the participants in our global survey would be happy for their employers to have access to their personal data. Younger people tend to be more open to this than older generations, so this kind of monitoring could become routine in the years to come.
- Rethinking values and goals In the Green World, companies take the lead in developing a strong social conscience and sense of environmental responsibility. They are open, trusting, collaborative learning organisations and see themselves playing an important role in supporting and developing their employees and local communities. Companies have strong control over their supplier networks to ensure that corporate ethical values are upheld across the supply chain, and are able to troubleshoot when things go wrong. In turn, the combination of ethical values, support for the real economy and familyfriendly hours is an opportunity to create a new employee value proposition that isn’t solely reliant on pay. Brands can rise and fall on the basis of their environmental and social impact, with government imposed corporate fines for bad behaviour in this highly regulated world. Corporate responsibility is not an altruistic nice to have, but a business imperative. Companies want to spend their profits to make a positive difference, but it’s become more important to make their profit in a responsible way. Employees are expected to uphold corporate values and targets around the green agenda. The need to travel to meet clients and colleagues is replaced with technological solutions, which reduce the need for face to-face contact. Employees’ carbon footprint is carefully monitored and built into performance targets. As society gravitates towards more sustainable living, the HR function is forced to embrace sustainability and corporate responsibility as part of its people engagement and talent management agendas. Changing social and ethical values may put more pressure on employers to take a responsible attitude to looking after their employees’ health and wellbeing. In turn employees demand healthier workplaces and workplace behaviours.
- Rethinking values and goals In the Green World, companies take the lead in developing a strong social conscience and sense of environmental responsibility. They are open, trusting, collaborative learning organisations and see themselves playing an important role in supporting and developing their employees and local communities. Companies have strong control over their supplier networks to ensure that corporate ethical values are upheld across the supply chain, and are able to troubleshoot when things go wrong. In turn, the combination of ethical values, support for the real economy and familyfriendly hours is an opportunity to create a new employee value proposition that isn’t solely reliant on pay. Brands can rise and fall on the basis of their environmental and social impact, with government imposed corporate fines for bad behaviour in this highly regulated world. Corporate responsibility is not an altruistic nice to have, but a business imperative. Companies want to spend their profits to make a positive difference, but it’s become more important to make their profit in a responsible way. Employees are expected to uphold corporate values and targets around the green agenda. The need to travel to meet clients and colleagues is replaced with technological solutions, which reduce the need for face to-face contact. Employees’ carbon footprint is carefully monitored and built into performance targets. As society gravitates towards more sustainable living, the HR function is forced to embrace sustainability and corporate responsibility as part of its people engagement and talent management agendas. Changing social and ethical values may put more pressure on employers to take a responsible attitude to looking after their employees’ health and wellbeing. In turn employees demand healthier workplaces and workplace behaviours. Citizens, consumers and employees impulse change. Companies develop a powerful social conscience and green sense of responsibility. Consumers demand ethics and environmental credentials as a top priority. Society and business see their agendas align. Rethinking values and goals In the Green World, companies take the lead in developing a strong social conscience and sense of environmental responsibility. They are open, trusting, collaborative learning organisations and see themselves playing an important role in supporting and developing their employees and local communities. Companies have strong control over their supplier networks to ensure that corporate ethical values are upheld across the supply chain, and are able to troubleshoot when things go wrong. In turn, the combination of ethical values, support for the real economy and family friendly hours is an opportunity to create a new employee value proposition that isn’t solely reliant on pay.
- The Ecological Divide. We are depleting and degrading our natural resources on a massive scale, using up more nonrenewable precious resources every year. Although we have only one planet earth, we leave an ecological footprint of 1.5 planets; that is, we are currently using 50% more resources than our planet can regenerate to meet our current consumption needs. As a consequence, one third of our agricultural land has disappeared over the past 40 years. Rapidly falling water tables are taking us on a path toward food riots. Food prices are expected to double by 2030. The Social Divide. Two and a half billion people on our planet subsist on less than $2 per day. Although there have been many successful attempts to lift people out of poverty, this number, 2.5 billion, has not changed much over the past several decades. In addition we see an increasing polarization in society in which the top 1 percent has a greater collective worth than the entire bottom 90 percent. The Spiritual-cultural Divide. While the ecological divide is based on a disconnect between self and nature, and the social divide on a disconnect between self and other, the spiritual divide reflects a disconnect between self and Self—that is, between my current “self” and the emerging future “Self” that represents my greatest potential. This divide is manifest in rapidly growing figures on burnout and depression, which represent the growing gap between our actions and who we really are. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), in 2000 more than twice as many people died from suicide as died in wars. The ecological, social, and the spiritual-cultural divides represent three different tips of the iceberg of massive institutional failure. We are collectively creating results that nobody wants. See more at: https://www.presencing.com/ego-to-eco/3-divides#sthash.FaYASpnR.dpuf The Ego to Eco framework begins with what we call the “iceberg model” of the current socioeconomic system. Why an iceberg? Because it assumes that, beneath the visible level of events and crises, there are underlying structures, mental models, and sources that are responsible for creating them. If ignored, they will keep us locked into reenacting the same old patterns time and again - See more at: https://www.presencing.com/ego-to-eco/3-divides#sthash.8vJK8fLM.dpuf Systems Thinking is attributed to the work of Peter Senge who wrote The Fifth Discipline. The five disciplines are personal mastery, mental models, building shared vision, team learning, and systems thinking. Of all of these disciplines, the fifth discipline, systems thinking, is the most important. According to Peter Senge, five disciplines must be mastered to create a learning organization.Systems Thinking is rooted in Open Systems Theory (2009, French & Bell). What is below the surface may surprise you.None of the visible elements can ever make real sense without understanding the drivers behind them; and these are hidden on the bottom side of the iceberg, the invisible side. It is these invisible elements that are the underlying causes of what manifest on the visible side. So, when thinking about culture, the bottom side of the iceberg will include things such as religious beliefs, worldviews, rules of relationships, approach to the family, motivations, tolerance for change, attitudes to rules, communication styles, modes of thinking, comfort with risk, the difference between public and private, gender differences and more.
- INFLUENCING THE FUTURE Long-term forecasting of expected and plausible changes includes the fundamentals of research (scanning), trend extrapolation and scenario development Implications Analysis Identifying and prioritizing the implications of scenarios leading to a selection of strategic issues or new opportunities. Leadership Visionaries who advocate for a new era and enroll others in the campaign to create that era. Vision A compelling image of the preferred future that motivates others to enroll in the campaign to achieve that vision. Planning The process for identifying and characterizing strategic issues that feed into a formal strategic planning process. Change Management The principles of change management and guidance in selecting the most effective principles depending on the enterprise and the domain.
- INFLUENCING THE FUTURE Long-term forecasting of expected and plausible changes includes the fundamentals of research (scanning), trend extrapolation and scenario development Implications Analysis Identifying and prioritizing the implications of scenarios leading to a selection of strategic issues or new opportunities. Leadership Visionaries who advocate for a new era and enroll others in the campaign to create that era. Vision A compelling image of the preferred future that motivates others to enroll in the campaign to achieve that vision. Planning The process for identifying and characterizing strategic issues that feed into a formal strategic planning process. Change Management The principles of change management and guidance in selecting the most effective principles depending on the enterprise and the domain.