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Stock trading tips - trading expectations

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Stock trading tips on hot stocks to buy now, stock market strategy, picking hot stocks, picking penny stocks, and how to buy cheap stocks. From “How to Find a Home Run Stock” and “How to Pick Hot Reverse Merger Penny Stocks” and also “How the Shorts Raid Your Stock, Destroy Your Company and What to Do About It” all by John Lux.

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Stock trading tips - trading expectations

  1. 1. www.investing-performance.comStock Trading Tips -Mind of a Successful Trader
  2. 2. DisclaimerStock trading is VERY risky.Learn before you trade.This is not investment advice.Consult qualified investment professionals.Do not trade with more than you can afford to lose.No warranties here, you are on your own.
  3. 3. www.investing-performance.comWhen you look at stocks long enough, you start to see the huge role that expectations play in stock valuation.
  4. 4. www.investing-performance.comSure you have supply and demand, sure you havefundamental valuation, but both of these are greatly affected by expectations.
  5. 5. If the market expects great things from the stock, the stock sells at a high price and it is easy for the company to raise money at less expense. The company prospers from cheap financing and the fundamental value of the company increases - even if at first, the expectation was wrong.
  6. 6. Let me show you....If you hold the stock you are part of the supply.If you expect the stock to go up, you do not sell. If you expect it to go down, you are likely to sell.
  7. 7. Conversely, if you are an investor whomight buy the stock, you are part of the demand side of the equation. If youthink the stock will soon skyrocket andeveryone knows this, you buy with bothhands, taking all the offers you can find. If you believe nobody knows this, andthe stock may decline before rising, you hold off buying. This much is obvious.
  8. 8. www.investing-performance.comNow look at how expectations can be used to affect the fundamental value of the company.
  9. 9. If you are an evil naked short seller, you can hire people to "bash" the stock with slander,pushing the price so low that nomatter what the true value of thecompany could be, the company is unable to finance itself by selling equity and so dies.
  10. 10. www.investing-performance.comIn this type of situation, the expectation can exceed the reality and become the reality.
  11. 11. Now we dig deeperWe also have the theory of contrarian investing. This says that if everyone is bullish, sell. If you are a contrarian and everyone is bearish, buy. The contrarian prospers by doing the opposite of expectations. How can this be?
  12. 12. www.investing-performance.comWhat you actually have to do is to know the underlying value and look at the expectations that are out there and play one against the other. How will their relationship change?
  13. 13. www.investing-performance.comIf the stock is undervalued, and all are bearish, can you see expectations shifting to bullish some day?
  14. 14. If the stock is wildly overvalued, no amount ofbullish expectation will makeit a good investment; in fact itis probably a good short sale.
  15. 15. www.investing-performance.comAs the trick in investing is to find the most undervalued stock that will soon become overvalued, I recommendlooking through areas others would not touch for overlooked value.
  16. 16. www.investing-performance.comSome stocks may stay undervalued and overlooked forever, so you tryto weed them out. You collect all the undervalued stocks and then see if there are factors there that will cause them to gain positive expectations.
  17. 17. www.investing-performance.comIf there are such factors, youengage in more research and find the best of these, study the market, and pick your entry strategy.
  18. 18. Discover more free or
  19. 19. www.investing-performance.comGet “How to Find a Home Run Stock” Or “How to Pick Hot Reverse Merger Penny Stocks” on
  20. 20. John Lux is a former OTC Market Maker, venturecapitalist, investment banker and attorney. Copyright ©John Lux 2011