2012 feb 25 agile ux nyc, seiden, requirements to hypotheses

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2012 feb 25 agile ux nyc, seiden, requirements to hypotheses

  1. 1. ReplacingRequirementswith Hypotheses AgileUX NYC 2012 Feb 25, 2012 Josh Seiden @jseiden
  2. 2. Me and my hashtags Josh Seiden www.proof-nyc.com @jseiden @proof_nyc #leanUX #leanStartupwww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 2 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  3. 3. Internet Mousewww.proof-nyc.comwww.slideshare.net/jseiden 3 License: Creative Commons Attribution- Share Alike 3.0 United States
  4. 4. Internet Mousewww.proof-nyc.comwww.slideshare.net/jseiden 3 License: Creative Commons Attribution- Share Alike 3.0 United States
  5. 5. What are we talking about?Requirements and hypotheses can both be used to frame the work of teams.- Example of a requirement: create an Internet Mouse that people can use when surfing the internet on their TV from their couch.- Hypothesis: we believe that people will pay for a device that makes it easier and more fun to surf the internet from their living room couches in front of the TV.www.proof-nyc.comwww.slideshare.net/jseiden 4 License: Creative Commons Attribution- Share Alike 3.0 United States
  6. 6. For many teams, in manycontexts, hypotheses are amore effective way tomanage your work thanrequirements. 5
  7. 7. Extreme uncertaintywww.proof-nyc.comwww.slideshare.net/jseiden 6 License: Creative Commons Attribution- Share Alike 3.0 United States
  8. 8. The problem with requirements The business owners express needs as “requirements.”Problem: the team has no visibility to user/market need.Problem: “The business” does the thinking, the design/dev team does the implementing.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 7 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  9. 9. Requirements vs. hypothesesWhen you’re in production, building to a known standard, you want requirements.When you’re in an environment of uncertainty, you want hypotheses.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 10 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  10. 10. Why hypotheses are better
  11. 11. Why are hypotheses more effective?They are understood to be only provisionally true: in other words, they express assumptions that need to be tested.Hypotheses are answers put forth in the spirit of a question.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 12 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  12. 12. On questions...“We get wise by asking questions, and even if these questions are not answered we get wise, for a well-packed question carries its answer on it’s back as a snail carries its shell.” James Stephens, The Boyhood of Fionnwww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 13 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  13. 13. Wisdom? Who cares?“Working software is the primary measure of progress.”“Validated learning is the primary measure of progress.”www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 14 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  14. 14. Reduce Inventory, Risk and Waste Make a Get design feedback decision from market Concept credit: @clevergirlwww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 15 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  15. 15. Reduce Inventory, Risk and Waste This is going to be BIG! Make a Get design feedback decision from market Concept credit: @clevergirlwww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 15 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  16. 16. Reduce Inventory, Risk and Waste This is No one going to be clicked. BIG! Make a Get design feedback decision from market Concept credit: @clevergirlwww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 15 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  17. 17. Reduce Inventory, Risk and Waste This is No one going to be clicked. BIG! Make a Get design 3 MONTHS feedback decision from market Concept credit: @clevergirlwww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 15 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  18. 18. Reduce Inventory, Risk and Waste This is No one going to be clicked. BIG! Make a Get design 3 MONTHS feedback decision from market 3 HOURS Concept credit: @clevergirlwww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 15 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  19. 19. Less risk, more often The old way... The new way! Concept credit: @clevergirlwww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 16 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  20. 20. What is a hypothesis?
  21. 21. What is a hypothesis?An hypothesis is a proposed explanation of the way things work.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 18 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  22. 22. What is a Hypothesis? We believe that ________________. ...and: We’ll know that we’re right when we see this signal: ______________.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 19 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  23. 23. What is a Hypothesis? We believe that people will pay for a device that makes it easier and more fun to surf the internet from their living room couches. ...and: We’ll know that we’re right when 1. People use our mockups without trouble. 2. People offer to pay when we offer to leave the mockups with them.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 20 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  24. 24. Techniques
  25. 25. Process Replace requirements with hypotheses by: 1. Identifying assumptions 2. Expressing assumptions as hypotheses 3. Test the riskiest assumptions first 4. Break your hypotheses down into testable parts 5. Use MVP concept to test your hypothesis 6. Get out of the building 7. Lather, rinse, and repeatwww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 22 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  26. 26. Method: Declare your assumptionswww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States
  27. 27. Method: Declare your assumptionsWhat assumptions do you have?www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States
  28. 28. Method: Declare your assumptionsWhat assumptions do you have?…about your customers?www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States
  29. 29. Method: Declare your assumptionsWhat assumptions do you have?…about your customers?…that if proven false, will cause you to fail?www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States
  30. 30. Method: probe deeply for assumptionsWho is the user? Who is the customer?Where does our product fit in their work or life?What problems does our product solve?When and how is our product used?What features are important?How should our product look and behave?How will we make money?www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States
  31. 31. Test your riskiest assumptions first high risk known unknown low riskwww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States
  32. 32. Method: Write the test firstWe believe that ______________.We will know we have succeeded when qualitative and quantitative outcome. This will improve KPI.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States
  33. 33. Method: Minimum Viable Productwww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States
  34. 34. Method: Minimum Viable ProductWhat is the smallest thing we can make to testour hypothesis?www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States
  35. 35. Method: Minimum Viable ProductWhat is the smallest thing we can make to testour hypothesis?The answer to this question is your MVP.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States
  36. 36. An example 28
  37. 37. Case study: recent clientA web service that you plug in to your commerce siteProvides a set of features to end usersMerchant gains insight because the widget generates metricswww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 29 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  38. 38. Case study: recent clientThe problem: they had a feature backlog, and were not sure how to prioritize what to work on next.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 30 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  39. 39. Case study: identifying assumptionsTo deal with “requirements” we built a story mapwww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 31 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  40. 40. Case study: identifying riskwww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 32 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  41. 41. Case study: the biggest risk Do our customers value our offering enough to pay for it?www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 33 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  42. 42. The value hypothesisWe believe that our customers value our offering because:1. Our widget adds a valuable feature to their pages.2. Our widget generates traffic for them. Free offering3. Our widget generates sales for them.4. Our widget generates valuable data. Paid offeringwww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 34 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  43. 43. Case study: find the riskiest assumptions1. Customers will value our high riskwidget’s basic functionalityenough to choose it over the 1free competitors. 22. Customers will value ouranalytics enough to upgrade known unknownto the paid version of ourproduct. low riskwww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 35 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  44. 44. Startup Metrics for Pirates Awareness Learns about our product Installation Installs widget on site Values analytics enough Purchase to upgrade to premium Doesn’t cancel after Repurchase 30-day trial Refers Referral Friendswww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 36 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  45. 45. Startup Metrics for Pirates We believe that if we show Awareness Debbie how important [our Learns about our product functionality] is she will give us her email address. Installation Installs widget on site Values analytics enough Purchase to upgrade to premium Doesn’t cancel after Repurchase 30-day trial Refers Referral Friendswww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 36 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  46. 46. Startup Metrics for Pirates We believe that if we show Awareness Debbie how important [our Learns about our product functionality] is she will give us her email address. We believe that our free offering Installation Installs widget on site is strong enough that she will install us over our competitor. Values analytics enough Purchase to upgrade to premium Doesn’t cancel after Repurchase 30-day trial Refers Referral Friendswww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 36 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  47. 47. Startup Metrics for Pirates We believe that if we show Awareness Debbie how important [our Learns about our product functionality] is she will give us her email address. We believe that our free offering Installation Installs widget on site is strong enough that she will install us over our competitor. Values analytics enough We believe that Debbie will value our Purchase analytics enough to pay for this level of to upgrade to premium service. Doesn’t cancel after Repurchase 30-day trial Refers Referral Friendswww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 36 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  48. 48. Startup Metrics for Pirates We believe that if we show Awareness Debbie how important [our Learns about our product functionality] is she will give us her email address. We believe that our free offering Installation Installs widget on site is strong enough that she will install us over our competitor. Values analytics enough We believe that Debbie will value our Purchase analytics enough to pay for this level of to upgrade to premium service. Doesn’t cancel after Repurchase 30-day trial Refers Referral Friendswww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 36 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  49. 49. Hypothesis: activation/installationwww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 37 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  50. 50. Hypothesis: activation/installationHypothesis: Our customers will value our free widget enough to install it.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 37 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  51. 51. Hypothesis: activation/installationHypothesis: Our customers will value our free widget enough to install it.Sub-hypothesis: they will install the free widget only if the installation process is easy enough.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 37 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  52. 52. Hypothesis: activation/installationHypothesis: Our customers will value our free widget enough to install it.Sub-hypothesis: they will install the free widget only if the installation process is easy enough.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 37 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  53. 53. Hypothesis: activation/installationHypothesis: Our customers will value our free widget enough to install it.Sub-hypothesis: they will install the free widget only if the installation process is easy enough.Problem: the installation process is too hard for our customer. It is preventing us from measuring customer behavior.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 37 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  54. 54. Hypothesis: activation/installationHypothesis: Our customers will value our free widget enough to install it.Sub-hypothesis: they will install the free widget only if the installation process is easy enough.Problem: the installation process is too hard for our customer. It is preventing us from measuring customer behavior.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 37 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  55. 55. Experiment one: will they install it?www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 38 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  56. 56. Experiment one: will they install it? vs. Install with one click...www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 38 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  57. 57. Experiment one: will they install it? vs. Install with one click...www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 38 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  58. 58. Requirement vs Hypothesiswww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 39 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  59. 59. Requirement vs HypothesisRequirement: build an installerwww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 39 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  60. 60. Requirement vs HypothesisRequirement: build an installerwww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 39 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  61. 61. Requirement vs HypothesisRequirement: build an installerHypothesis: Our customers will value our free widget enough to install it.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 39 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  62. 62. Requirement vs HypothesisRequirement: build an installerHypothesis: Our customers will value our free widget enough to install it.Sub-hypothesis: they will install the free widget only if the installation process is easy enough.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 39 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  63. 63. Requirement vs HypothesisRequirement: build an installerHypothesis: Our customers will value our free widget enough to install it.Sub-hypothesis: they will install the free widget only if the installation process is easy enough.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 39 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  64. 64. Requirement vs HypothesisRequirement: build an installerHypothesis: Our customers will value our free widget enough to install it.Sub-hypothesis: they will install the free widget only if the installation process is easy enough.MVP: build a page that supports a concierge installer.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 39 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  65. 65. Requirement vs HypothesisRequirement: build an installerHypothesis: Our customers will value our free widget enough to install it.Sub-hypothesis: they will install the free widget only if the installation process is easy enough.MVP: build a page that supports a concierge installer.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 39 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  66. 66. The next hypothesis... We believe that if we show Awareness Debbie how important [our Learns about our product functionality] is she will give us her email address. We believe that our free offering Installation Installs widget on site is strong enough that she will install us over our competitor. Values analytics enough We believe that Debbie will value our Purchase analytics enough to pay for this level of to upgrade to premium service. Doesn’t cancel after Repurchase 30-day trial Refers Referral Friendswww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 40 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  67. 67. Experiment 2: do they value analytics?Requirement: build an analytics dashboardHypothesis: Our customers will value our analytics dashboard enough to pay for it.We’ll know we’ve succeeded when 6 customers respond to our mockups by signing Letters of Intent.MVP: Mockup of analytics dashboard.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 41 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  68. 68. Hypotheses win...www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 42 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  69. 69. Hypotheses win...A way to re-frame requirementswww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 42 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  70. 70. Hypotheses win...A way to re-frame requirements  Every decision you make about your offering is a design decision.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 42 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  71. 71. Hypotheses win...A way to re-frame requirements  Every decision you make about your offering is a design decision.  Every design decision is an hypothesis.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 42 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  72. 72. Hypotheses win...A way to re-frame requirements  Every decision you make about your offering is a design decision.  Every design decision is an hypothesis.  Declare your assumptions and test them.www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 42 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  73. 73. Hypotheses win...A way to re-frame requirements  Every decision you make about your offering is a design decision.  Every design decision is an hypothesis.  Declare your assumptions and test them.  Entire team engaged in the feedback loopwww.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden 42 Share Alike 3.0 United States
  74. 74. Enjoy what you saw? Follow @jseiden and @proof_nyc. THANK YOU!www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States

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