Shelburne Transition Town - Transportation
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The document discusses issues related to transportation and sustainability in Shelburne, Vermont. It covers topics like peak oil, energy consumption, health impacts of current transportation systems, and air quality. It advocates for more sustainable transportation solutions like increasing density to support walking and biking, improving transit options, and linking transportation and land use planning. The document also discusses the roles of MPOs and what planners can do to address these challenges through their work.
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Shelburne Transition Town - Transportation
- 1. Shelburne, Vermont Transitioning Transportation “ Emerging issues, challenges ahead, opportunity present – vision required” November 12, 2009
- 2. 1. Peak Oil/Energy Crunch 2. Transportation and Sustainability 4. Health Impacts 5. Air Quality Part I 1. Sustainable Development 2. MPO 3. Planning and Development 4. What Can We Do? Part II
- 4. Peak Oil Definition peak oil is the date when the peak of the world's conventional petroleum (crude oil) production rate is reached. After this date the rate of production is predicted to enter terminal decline (Wikipedia )
- 6. Future of Oil and Gas Falling Production, Increasing Demand… Source: Peak Oil Center
- 7. Future of Oil and Gas http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4172
- 9. Hungry for Fuel (or getting full?) Motor Vehicle Fuel Consumption in US, 2004-2007 (in millions of gallons) http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/ UVM TRC, 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 Gasoline 178,536 174,787 174,930 176,106
- 10. Change in Average Vehicle Characteristics, 1981-2003 (in %)
- 13. Current and Potential Car Fleet in India and China Can our planet sustain this? Source: Worldwatch Institute
- 14. Energy Consumption by Transportation Mode in the United States, 1960-2000 (in Trillion BTUs)
- 15. Energy Consumption (2008) – US UVM TRC 2009
- 16. Energy Consumption (2008) – VT UVM TRC 2009
- 18. US Public Road Mileage and VMT 1920 - 2007
- 19. US Vehicles Miles Traveled 1984-2008 What’s Happening?
- 22. Vermont VMT 1920-2000 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1920 1932 1940 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 Calendar Year Millions of Miles
- 23. Vermont and US Annual Average VMT by Calendar Year (in millions) UVM TRC 2009
- 30. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1985 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%
- 31. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1988 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%
- 32. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1991 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%
- 33. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1994 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%
- 34. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1997 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%
- 35. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2000 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%
- 36. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2003 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% ≥25%
- 37. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2006 (*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%
- 40. Air Quality – US UVM TRC 2009
- 41. Air Quality – Vermont UVM TRC 2009
- 42. Emissions (cough, cough) From http://www.sightline.org/maps/charts/climate-CO2byMode , copyright 2008 Sightline Institute, Seattle; used with permission.
- 43. Life Cycle Analysis ( It’s not just about tailpipe emissions…) Mikhail V Chester 1 and Arpad Horvath, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, 760 Davis Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/1748-9326/4/2/024008/erl9_2_024008.pdf?request-id=174216f0-7153-498a-96d0-88d34d946455
- 44. Life Cycle Analysis ( It’s not just about tailpipe emissions…) Mikhail V Chester 1 and Arpad Horvath, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, 760 Davis Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/1748-9326/4/2/024008/erl9_2_024008.pdf?request-id=174216f0-7153-498a-96d0-88d34d946455
- 46. 1. Sustainable Development 2. MPO 3. Planning and Development 4. What Can We Do? Phew! Part II
- 54. How do we spend all that money?
- 55. How do we spend all that money?
- 57. They’re considering climate change! What Are Planners Doing?
- 61. More compact development patterns are likely to reduce VMT Doubling residential density across a metropolitan area might lower household VMT by about 5-12%, and perhaps by as much as 25%... if coupled with higher employment concentrations, significant public transit improvements, mixed uses, and other supportive demand management measures Significant increases in more compact, mixed-use development result in only modest short-term reductions in energy consumption and CO2 emissions... ...but these reductions will grow over time TRB: Driving and the Built Environment Do Development Patterns Matter? Can petroleum use and CO2 emissions be reduced by changes in development design?
- 62. Population Densities – How Sustainable? SOURCE: P Newman, JR Kenworthy; Gasoline consumption and cities: a comparison of US cities with a global survey , Journal of the American Planning Association, 1989
- 63. Categories of Transportation Actions • Reduce travel demand for passengers and freight • Reduce vehicle emissions for cars and trucks • Reduce the size and weight of vehicles • Expand use of low emitting (renewable) fuels • Remove fine particulates (black carbon or soot) • Reduce emissions from service equipment • Teach people to drive differently Source: Vt Climate Change Commission
- 68. Latent Demand for Walking
- 71. Way to Go! 2009 by the numbers… 3,552 Participants (a 20% increase from last year’s total of 2,950 ) R 213,000 Pounds of CO 2 saved ( up 4% from last year’s 206,000 pounds) 237,000 Commuting miles saved ( no change from miles saved last year) $ 33,000 Total saved (@ $2.10 /gal) ( down 33% from $49,000 saved last year @$3.60 /gal) Did you know… … Vermonters drive an average of 17,000 miles per year … a typical Vermont car emits 13,600 pounds of carbon dioxide per year … by taking a commuting alternative twice a week, you would save $927 per year in fuel costs alone Brought to you by the Way to Go! Green Team
- 72. So What?? What does 213,000 pounds of CO2 look like? 225 barrels of oil Electricity for 12 households for one year How far is 237,000 miles? More than 9 times around the earth 85 trips from NY to LA How many are 3,552 people? About the same population as Charlotte, Vermont 21 passenger cars driven for one year
- 78. Discussion / Questions For more information: Bryan Davis CCMPO (802) 660-4071 [email_address] Jon Slason http://nz.linkedin.com/in/jslason
Editor's Notes
- Who I am, why I’m here…who is in the audience?
- We can do part 1, then break, then part 2, or do the whole thing at once – audience participation is strongly encourage because I’m not the expert in everything, but collectively we have great knowledge…
- I was asked to talk about transportation, but we can’t talk about that without understanding the connections to other issues. Must break the “silos” and think in terms of systems Make reference to the films they’re watching – End of Suburbia, how Cuba survived…etc.
- Has group already talked about peak oil?? M King Hubbert – scientist with Shell Oil who modeled resource depletion and rate of oil production over time – accurately predicted peak around 1970. rate of depletion is determined by rate of new oil well discovery. Steepness in drop is concern
- Peak oil – production won’t be able to keep up with demand. Supplies may exist but processing will slow, be expensive. We’re not out oil but production will continue to decline
- Another chart showing production vs demand
- The discovery information is based on backdated information - what we now think old discoveries were worth. Some of the big oil fields in the Middle East were discovered about 1960. We are still discovering new fields, but they tend to be smaller and more difficult to extract. The discovery information includes only liquid oil, not oil in the form of tar or other solids.
- Exxon believes U.S. fuel demand to keep cars, SUVs and pickups moving will shrink 22% between now and 2030. &quot;We are probably at or very near a peak in terms of light-duty gasoline demand,&quot; says Scott Nauman, Exxon's head of energy forecasting.
- Annual spending for the purchase of petroleum in Vermont is up 30% from 2004 to 2008…BUT there was a 5% decrease in total fuel sold in for highway modes Decline in fuel consumption, particularly in 2008.
- My 1969 camaro. We can make them bigger and faster, why not more fuel efficient? Does this speak to the relationship between government, auto makers, oil industry? Source: Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends 1975 Through 2003 (EPA420-R-01-008, April 2003). http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fetrends.htm
- “ transportation” = vehicles? automobiles, trucks, buses, trains, airplanes, Infrastructure? roads, highways, railroads. Don’t forget about walking and biking. interconnected network of infrastructure that allows movement of people and goods. Post war boom, large labor force available, interstate system, American Dream – get your piece. Auto touring, National Parks, etc. National Lampoon’s Vacation – Disney World From Jon’s book… How did we get here? Auto, after war, highway development, decline of rail, just in time delivery, etc. (Amazon.com)
- What about the fuel distribution infrastructure? The fuel refinement infrastructure? The energy supplies to refine the fuels? The technology that allows for all of this to happen? If we shift to a different fuel source, then do we have to change all of the related components and infrastructure? That is, we don’t just buy a new type of vehicle and carry on. A whole new system has to be developed and put in place.
- Growing middle class around the globe means that more and more and more people will become car owners. Vehicles are becoming more affordable (Tata in India), fuel is still relatively affordable. VT stats: The Vermont vehicle fleet composition continues to grow more fuel efficient, with a 202% increase (from 2005 to 2008) in hybrid vehicles registered. New vehicle purchases of full-size pick-up and sport utility vehicles each saw a 34% decrease from 2004 to 2008
- This is start of “energy” section. Source: BTS, National Transportation Statistics, 2001. Hello, roads.
- Smaller in VT – could be because of fewer transportation options (people have to drive) and smaller industrial/commercial sector
- This shows where all the energy used comes out – mostly CO2 but others as well.
- Arguably more important than fuel efficiency, Vehicle Miles Traveled directly affects gas consumption, emissions, and traffic patterns. A Prius owner who makes multiple, unnecessary trips and has a long work commute is no more virtuous than a Hummer driver who works close to home (Terra Pass article)
- How much can we attribute this decline to the rise in fuel prices?
- Snapshot of VT VMT…more recent years on next slide…
- Going down…Chittenden County next slide…
- And now for the Chittenden County stats…
- Snapshot of infrastructure and safety… Greater Burlington is the second-largest metro area in the nation with a Pedestrian Danger Index of zero. In addition, the report calculated Vermont’s statewide Pedestrian Danger Index at only 7.2, far below the national average of 52.1
- Based on Body Mass Index
- We have never had an epidemic like this that we have been able to track so thoroughly and see. About 60 million adults, or 30 percent of the adult population, are now obese, which represents a doubling of the rate since 1980.
- Areas of the country where air pollution levels persistently exceed the national ambient air quality standards may be designated &quot;nonattainment.&quot; What happens if we fall out of attainment? Lots and lots of reporting to the government. Agencies such as the MPO and RPC have already begun to develop an air quality plan - we're trying to be proactive. Air quality could decrease (ie, ozone levels could rise) if we experience hot summers or an increase in overall air pollution
- why is transportation so high? Fewer industrial emissions in VT compared to the nation as a whole.
- MJ/PKT=mega-joules per passenger-kilometer-traveled an SUV (which is one of the worst energy performers) with 2 passengers (giving 3 . 5 MJ / PKT) is equivalent to a bus with 8 passengers. Similarly, CA HRT with 120 passengers (27% occupancy giving 1 . 8 MJ / PKT) is equivalent to a midsize aircraft with 105 passengers (75% occupancy). Similarly, commuter rail (with one of the highest average per-PKT emission rates) at 34% occupancy (147 passengers) is equivalent to a bus with 13 passengers or a sedan with one passenger.
- PKT=passenger kilometer traveled
- CO2e is a calculation used by climate scientists to account for other greenhouse gases—like methane—that contribute climate change. It converts those gases to &quot;equivalent carbon dioxide,&quot; and is often used by scientists and policy makers to offer a single metric that can be used for all greenhouse gases.
- two scenarios: everyone in vt is distributed evenly around state (ie, everyone is micro farmer) vs most live in dense area (Chitt Cty?) -- which is more sustainable? With a substantial number of members working in other communities, there is a clear link… Within the next 20 years the economic importance of regional economics will become even stronger as the costs of international and long-distance travel will increase. Trains, buses, car pools, telecommuting should be a near term solution to allow 'business as usual' while building community and reducing the demand for fossil fuels. scenario 2 -- people would likely be driving less, living in smaller houses, and making better use of mass transit. The very small (or, more likely, non-existent) environmental impact of food transportation will be more than offset by the inherent efficiencies of city living. (terra pass article)
- a freight train can move a ton of goods 460 miles on a single gallon of diesel. Your car can move a bag of groceries about 20 miles on a single gallon of gasoline. Sustainability is best measured by proximity to a supermarket , not a farm. terra pass article
- Long-term sustainability of a developed area where we want to live, work, and play... We all have different skills, we all don’t need to farm While the reality of this scenario may be difficult to imagine, this type of planning needs to occur if we want to envision a new world of opportunity with the double confrontation of climate change and the realities of peaking availability of resources. The emphasis on moving towards local systems should be tempered with a focus on community and not the hyper-idealized individual. We shouldn’t be encouraging everyone to move to 10 acre plots to grow and raise their own miniature farm. We need to appreciate that we all have unique skills and desires. Not everyone is or desires to be a full time farmer.
- ISTEA was important because it created dedicated pots of money for specific programs, including walk/bike, transit, etc.
- This is money that we program each year for projects. NOTE: Some projects in other categories include bike/ped facilities that are not included in the Bike/Ped category
- what do we, as planners, do? We provide a vision for the region. we help communities address their transportation (and land use) issues. We provide information, resources, policy guidance, we even help build (sidewalks). Exchange information, learn from each other scenario planning - what does the future look like in 2060?
- Transportation planners are considering climate change! This report is part on on-going work for the US Department of Transportation’s Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting and the Federal Highway Administration to highlight innovative actions and initiatives undertaken by states and metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) to incorporate climate change considerations as part of the transportation planning process.
- http://htaindex.cnt.org
- having a prius is great, but not if you're commuting a long distance every day.
- Do we use carrots or sticks or both?
- 2009 cross-disciplinary study to examine transportation strategies to reduce GHG emissions. 9 categories: pricing/taxes, land use, nonmotorized, public trans, ride/carsharing, ITS, capacity, freight Strong economy-wide pricing measures, beyond local and regional pricing strategies, generate additional GHG reductions. For example, an additional fee (in current dollars) starting at the equivalent of $0.60 per gallon in 2015 and increasing to $1.25 per gallon in 2050 could result in an additional 17 percent reduction in GHG emissions in 2050 from the baseline — reductions in vehicle miles traveled and more rapid technology advances would drive this.
- Start with story about working on car – needed a part, walked couple of blocks to parts store, didn’t have what I needed, but store 2 miles away did. Time to assess my options. walk/bike - was sick carshare - full bus - time crunch own car - needed to be cool
- what works best for making sustainable development and alternative transportation happen -- sticks or carrots?
- Source: Classroom Surveys, Fall 2005 Brief them on each school… CP Smith 300 students K-4 CHMS 400 students 5-8 Hinesburg 550 students K-8
- Sources: 1. 2. 3. Lee, et al, “Physical Activity and CHD in Women”, JAMA, 2001, 285:1447
- Transportation can assist us by connecting to one another, but also we need to acknowledge that our system of transportation is most likely unsustainable and we must be planning to transition ourselves away from a fossil fuel based system. It all becomes part of a larger transition town movement of less consumption, less travel, less energy - to a system more localised, more walking, and more community focused.