1. system45sports’ comments on “Investment Advice: 5
Ways to Conquer Gambler's Ruin”
Article BY KEITH FITZ-GERALD, Chief Investment Strategist, Money Morning http://moneymorning.com/
April 26, 2012
How does Keith Fitz-Gerald’s Investment Advice apply to
system45sports’ betting advice?
Here are punch lines from the article –
1. Gambler's Ruin is a mathematical principle that deals with the preservation of assets -
or, more accurately, the probability that you'll lose them over time.
a. Imagine that Player One and Player Two each have a finite number of pennies,
which they flip one at a time, calling "heads" or "tails." The player who calls the
flip correctly gets to keep the penny.
b. If the process is repeated indefinitely, the probability that one of the two players
will eventually lose all his or her pennies is 100%.
c. In mathematical terms, the chance that Player One and Player Two (P1 and P2,
respectively) will be rendered penniless is expressed as:
i. P1 = n2 / (n1 + n2)
ii. P2 = n1 / (n1 + n2)
2. In plain English, what this says is that if you are one of the players, your chance of
going bankrupt is equal to the ratio of pennies your opponent starts out with to the total
number of pennies.
So far not a lot to do with Sports Handicapping. Wait, we’re getting there.
Here is more from the article -
3. To win you just need to change your game in such a way that the odds reflect
the strengths you bring to the table.
4. Investment pros would rather hit singles and doubles than home runs all day. They
know that's what pays the bills.
5. That's not to say they won't go for the homers.
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2. OK, let’s talk sports handicapping. What does system45sports bring to the
table?
1. A Bet Strategy based primarily on parlays that can generate profits without the
high winning pick rates (60% or better) needed by bettors utilizing typical
handicappers. Of course system45sports aims for a high winning pick rate. But
the system45sports Bet Strategy can turn a profit at winning pick rates in the
40’s to low 50’s percentages range. The tradeoff is more profits from picking
winning parlays.
2. system45sports’s Bet Strategy is conservative. It aims for singles and
doubles every day. Its process begins with handicapping procedures that
follow proven methods of analyzing trends and averages while monitoring the
odds and lines for above average opportunities. The core bets are weighted
towards favorites, but underdogs are picked when deemed to be moderately
low risk.
3. The Bet Strategy follows a policy of increasing the amounts bet during winning
streaks and betting less when loses are incurred. Also bet amounts are typically
adjusted downward at the beginning of a season due to lack of current
statistical information and again at the end of seasons as winning teams begin
resting their regular players for the playoffs and losing teams bring up prospects
from the minors.
4. The Strategy utilizes the investment principal of diversification by spreading the
bets over a limited number of selected games in amounts designed to lessen the
impact of any individual losing picks.
5. While the Strategy is designed to be conservative, overall performance is
enhanced by small wagers on homers or “Longshot Beer Bets”. Longshot is a
relative term as excessively high risk bets such as 9 or 10 team parlays are not
recommended. Four team and occasionally five team parlay wins satisfy the
urge to swing for the fences.
How were system45sports’s early 2012 baseball results?
6. system45sports’s advice has produced profits for the early MLB season through
4/25/12
7. Each week was profitable in increasing amounts beginning with the second
week of the season ended 4/15/12
8. Both the Core Bets and Longshot Beer Bets were profitable through 4/25/12
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3. a. the Core Bet profitability was 25% as a percentage of the amount bet
b. the Longshot Beer Bet profitability was 227% of the amount bet
c. the combined Core and Beer Bet profitability was 35% of the amount bet
9. The 35% profit was generated on only a 49% winning pick rate. 99% of the
picks were parlays which are inherently more risky that the single bets typically
recommended by other handicappers.
Here is the link to the full investment article for those interested -
http://moneymorning.com/2012/04/26/investment-advice-5-ways-to-conquer-gamblers-ruin/
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