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THE PANIC OF 1907




Run on banks
NYSE fell almost 50%
Led to Federal Reserve System
THE PANIC OF 1907




Wrigley’s
THE GREAT DEPRESSION




Began with stock market crash of
1929; lasted through World War II
Stock prices fell 90%
Real disposable income fell 28%
Unemployment spiked at 25%
9,000 banks failed
THE GREAT DEPRESSION




Kellogg’s
THE GREAT DEPRESSION




Kellogg’s
Chevrolet
THE GREAT DEPRESSION




Kellogg’s
Chevrolet
Procter & Gamble
1970S RECESSION




Began November 1973 and
ran through March 1975
High inflation made worse
by war and oil crisis
Unemployment reached 9%
Inflation rose to 11%
Stock market crashed
almost 50%
1970S RECESSION




Toyota
Procter & Gamble
FedEx
People magazine
Costco
Microsoft
1980S RECESSION




Started in July 1981 and ended
November 1982
Increased interest rates
Slowed the rate of growth
of money supply
Unemployment rate peaked
at 10.8%
Inflation hit 13.5%
1980S RECESSION




Walmart
Hershey’s
CNN
MTV
The Home Depot
2000S RECESSION




Began with collapse of dot-com
bubble in 2001
Post-September 11 economy,
Y2K, and accounting scandals
Unemployment reached 6%
Dow Jones worst one-week
point loss in history
2000S RECESSION




Apple iPod
Crest Whitestrips
Swiffer WetJet
Axe body spray
EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE




Stopped advertising
 Loss in top-of-mind awareness
 Loss in awareness
 Negative attitude shift
 Lowest increase in sales two years after recession
Increased advertising
 Market share increased 1.5%
 Nearly 5% increase in profits
 275% increase in sales two years after recession


Sources: Millward Brown, AAAA, and McGraw-Hill
CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION




Recession began December 2007
Credit crunch, bankruptcy, bailouts, and housing crisis
Unemployment rate 7.6%
Drastic shift in consumer behavior since early 2008
“The worst financial crisis since the Great Depression”
CMO SURVEY




U.S. senior marketing executives who believe
that during an economic downturn, the
marketing budget is the first thing to get cut

                                                    21% Disagree




                                                           79% Strongly/somewhat agree




Source: Epsilon, “Epsilon CMO Survey,” September 8, 2008
FRANK BLAKE, CEO, THE HOME DEPOT




“There’s absolutely a benefit in making changes
 during a downturn. As one of our vendors said:
“A downturn is a terrible thing to waste.”




Source: The Wall Street Journal, June 5, 2008
BENEFITS




Brand-building is long-term
 Tough times are inevitable
“We never change the long-term
 strategy because of short-term
 problems”–Louis Vuitton CEO
Yves Carcelle
 Positive effects of advertising are
 seen well past the short term
 Cost to maintain advertising is
 less than cost to begin again
MOST IMPORTANT ASSET
MOST IMPORTANT ASSET




Customers
SUPERBOWL XLIII
SUPERBOWL XLIII




Hyundai
 5 commercials
 2009 North American Car
 of the Year
 Introduced Genesis Coupe
 Over 450 million impressions
SUPERBOWL XLIII



             Joel Ewanick               George Wallace




      Vice President of Marketing   Vice President of Comedy
               Hyundai                   Humor Division
SUPERBOWL XLIII
SUPERBOWL XLIII
THE OSCARS
THREE YEARS FROM NOW?
SALES RESULTS




January 2009
 General Motors   -49%
 Ford             -39%
 Chrysler         -54%
 Toyota            -32%
 Nissan           -30%
 Volkswagen        -16%
 Mitsubishi       -34%
 Hyundai          +14%
TO CUT OR NOT TO CUT?
WHAT YOU CAN’T CONTROL
WHAT YOU CAN’T CONTROL
WHAT CAN YOU CONTROL?




The Three M’s:
 Money
 Medium
 Message
MONEY




How do you get more
bang with less buck?
MONEY
MONEY




Advance Auto Parts
 Budget decreased
 Dumped sports sponsorships and national cable TV
 Increased network radio
 Only paid for 77% of U.S.
 23% saved has been reinvested in more radio
“Regionalized” a network radio buy
MONEY
MONEY




Grocery Outlet
 Never advertised before recession
 Negotiate last-minute avails
 Buy unsold/cancelled inventory
Weekly flexibility
 Cover 90% of stores
MONEY
MONEY




Hyundai Dealers (Eastern Region)
V oted to increase ad budget
Afforded more media weight
 Sales outpace the rest of the country
 January national sales +14%
 January Eastern Region +20%
MEDIUM




Focus on vehicles with proven ROI
Narrow target to best prospects and
hit them hard
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
MEDIUM




Chick-fil-A
 No change to strategy and spending
 Heavy users of outdoor
 Maintain a “wish list”
 General Motors canceled
 Snatched up prime locations
MESSAGE




Construct your message for
the times
  Consumers don’t disappear–they
  change their behavior
 Value-conscious consumer mind-set
  and behavior shift since early 2008
 “Staycations” and “cocooning”
  60% of Americans budgeting more
  this year than last
MESSAGE
MESSAGE




Hyundai
 Identified the real issue–consumer confidence
 Hyundai buyer assurance program
 Protection in case of “involuntary loss of income”
Addressed fear
MESSAGE
MESSAGE




GameStop
Two targets: gamers and gifters
 (moms, grandmas, aunts, etc.)
 Gamers: make sure you get the
 games you want
 Gifters: 2,500 games under $20
MESSAGE




Results
 Holiday sales up 22% from last year
 Best Buy game sales down 12%
 from last year
CONCLUSION
Aaf Pres For Karsten

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