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Headstart startup event 20190608 at iiit hyderabad
- 1. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
Kazuaki ODA(織田一彰)
"Market Size Estimation and Fundraising“
-Why some get big, why some NOT?-
Nagoya University Professor
Slogan Inc. Co-Founder
K Consulting CEO
HS-X 2019 Entrepreneurship Conclave, 8th June @Hyderabad
- 2. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
#Profesor #Consultant #Investor #Startups #Mathematics
#Serial Entrepreneur #Tennis #Athlete
SLOGAN Inc. (Co-Founder&Executive Fellow)
K Consulting Co., Ltd (CEO)
Nagoya University (Visiting Professor )
-Macro Economics, Social Science, Strategy/Management
Institut Teknologi Bandung (Guest Lecturer)
Kazuaki ODA (“Kazu”)
<Academic and Business Background>
Nagoya University Doctral Course(Mathematics) [1990-1993]
Andersen Consulting(ACCENTURE) [1993-1997]
Internet Ad Agency (Mailnews Corporation) [1997-2003]
COO&CFO =>Bought and merged by Dentsu(*) group
Internet Ad Agency (Cybercommunications Inc.) [2003-2005]
CSO(Strategy) & CTO(Technology) of Dentsu Group
2 Mobile service companies [2005-2006] =>Bought by public company
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<Lecture Series in Universities (ex)>
(1)Overview and outlook of worldwide societies/economies
and how to select excellent companies.
(2)How to create and value up successful personal careers
and skills in this unpredictable future.
(3)The secrets of problem solving method and
logical thinking in global management consulting firms.
(4)Effective communication and presentation skills
(5)How to create new business structures and organizations.
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My Dream was ...
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My Dream2 was ...
- 6. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.1997 July @Chicago
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Lectures in ITB (2012)
DAY1 Personal Business Career in Uncertain Age
DAY2 Business Development Process
(Case study of Internet Business)
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学生向けセミナーLectures and Seminars in the world(1/2) SLOGAN
Potential Incubation
Tokyo University
Kyoto UniversityBeijing University
University of Indonesia
Shanghai Jiao Tong
university
National University of
Singapore
Institut Teknologi Bandung
Binus University
Tokyo Institute of
Technology
- 9. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
学生向けセミナーLectures and Seminars in the world(2/2) SLOGAN
Potential Incubation
Kyushu University
Tsinghua University
University of Hong KongKeio University Universiti Malaya
Chinese University of Hong Kong Stanford University
Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific
Univ.Nagoya University
- 10. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
<Objectives of this workshop>
-Understand basic knowledge of finance
(Debt/Equity Finance)
-Learn how to estimate market size
(Macro/Micro Approach)
-Learn how to get invested and collaborate
with foreigners(especially Japanese)
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Statement:
The odds of winning a lottery is 10%
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(Question)
You draw the lotteries 10 times.
Then what is the probability
that you win at least once till the end?
(1) 25%
(2) 45%
(3) 65%
(4) 85%
- 14. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
(1) 25%
(2) 45%
(3) 65%
(4) 85%
(Question)
You draw the lotteries 10 times.
Then what is the probability
that you win at least once till the end?
- 15. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
Mathematics tells us…
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Probability(%) of winning in
1/10 lottery with N times trial
Trial(N) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Probability(%) 10 19 27 34 41 47 52 57 61 65 69 72 75 77 79 81 83 85 86 88
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Time
Cash Position
“Cash Flow Management” is important!
<Key!(重要)>
* Burn Rate(現金の減る速度)
Fundraising
- 17. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
Time
Cash Position
“Cash Flow Management” is important!
<Key!(重要)>
* Burn Rate(現金の減る速度)
Fundraising
- 18. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
Time
Cash Position
Typical “Cash Position” of Growing Company
Series A
Series B
Series C
Fundraising
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Only one KPI to survive is
“CASH POSITION”
(現預金残高)
≠Current Floating Asset(流動資産)
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Company Growth Curve
Company
Value
Time
(Ⅰ) (Ⅱ) (Ⅲ) (Ⅳ)
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Where Is It in Company Growth Curve?
Company
Value
(Ⅰ) (Ⅱ) (Ⅲ) (Ⅳ)
Time
Potential Size
Present Size
Present Stage Matured Point
- 23. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
Where Is It in Company Growth Curve?
Company
Value
(Ⅰ) (Ⅱ) (Ⅲ) (Ⅳ)
Time
Potential Size
Present Size
Present Stage Matured Point
<=Market Size * Company’s Share
- 24. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
Time
Company
Value
$50M
$10M
$1B
$300M
Series A
Series C、D、、
IPO (Initial Public Offering )
Secondary Public Offering
Series B
Fund Raising ( by Issuing Stocks)
Pre IPO Growth Post IPO Growth
- 25. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
Time
$50M
$10M
$1B
$300M
Series A
Series C、D、、
IPO (Initial Public Offering )
Secondary Public Offerin
Series B
Fund Raising ( by Issuing Stocks)
IRR(Internal Rate of Return, 内部収益率)
Company
Value
- 26. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
Time
Company
Value
$50M
$10M
$1B
$300M
Series A
Series C、D、、
IPO (Initial Public Offering )
Secondary Public Offering
Series B
Fund Raising ( by Issuing Stocks)
Pre IPO Growth Post IPO Growth
- 27. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
Where Is It in Company Growth Curve?
Company
Value
(Ⅰ) (Ⅱ) (Ⅲ) (Ⅳ)
Time
Potential Size
Present Size
Present Stage Matured Point
<=Market Size * Company’s Share
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<=Market Size * Company’s Share
Potential (Company) Size
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What is your TARGET market?
- 30. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
・Can You See the Market?
-Size Is Big Enough?
-Know How to Win?
-Qualified to Be A Winner?
・You Have A Good Team?
* Impossible to Have All Functions in YOU
Points!
- 31. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
・Can You See the Market?
-Size Is Big Enough?
-Know How to Win?
-Qualified to Be A Winner?
・You Have A Good Team?
* Impossible to Have All Functions in YOU
Important Points of STRATEGY
- 32. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
<Work1>
How Many McDonald's Are in India?
And How Much Is the Annual Revenue?
- 33. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
<Work2>
How Many “CHAI POINT’s” Are in India now?
And How Many “CHAI POINT’s” and
Its Revenue in 2030?
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The FACT is
ONLY Some Startups Can Succeed
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Why do so many startups fail?
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Why do so many startups fail?
Basically failures are more often than successes.
CEO’s are beginners with no experiences.
They do know how to do that.
NO money, NO names, NO members, NO credit,,,
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Why did they succeed?
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What Factors Are Important to Succeed?
Strategic ???, Innovative???,
Technology???, Good Team???
Culture/Values???, Leadership???
Marketing???, Salesforce???
????????????????????????????
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Why did they succeed?
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They were lucky!
Why did they succeed?
- 42. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
What made them "LUCKY”?
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What make them LUCKY?
Their positions were
in good PLACE in good TIME.
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Business Development Process
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Company’s Business Life Cycle
Company
Value
Time
(Ⅰ) (Ⅱ) (Ⅲ) (Ⅳ)
- 47. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
What the Market Growth Curve means?
Market
Scale
(Ⅰ) (Ⅱ) (Ⅲ) (Ⅳ)
Time
Scale
- 48. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
What happens during Phase Ⅰ?
Market
Scale
(Ⅰ) (Ⅱ) (Ⅲ) (Ⅳ)
Time
Scale
- 49. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
・Process of creating ”0 to 1”
・Can’t figure out what would happen
・Believe your future to survive
・Based on creativity
・Some criticism from your family and friends
・Creating new service or product.
・HARD work during this phase!
Features of Phase Ⅰ
- 50. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
What happens during Phase Ⅱ?
Market
Scale
(Ⅰ) (Ⅱ) (Ⅲ) (Ⅳ)
Time
Scale
- 51. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
・Process of developing “1 to 10”
・Demand > Supply(certain price)
・You can figure out your company’s future
・Others start to realize the attractive market
・In the hard competition for share
・Being well organized and systemized is the key to grow
・Speed and marketing are the keys of success
Features of PhaseⅡ
- 52. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
What happens during Phase Ⅲ?
Market
Scale
(Ⅰ) (Ⅱ) (Ⅲ) (Ⅳ)
Time
Scale
- 53. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
・Process of developing “10 to 100”
・Demand=Supply(equilibrium price )
・Attractiveness of the market is apparent
・Hard competition with competitors for price and quality
・Being well organized is getting more important
・Profit rate is decreasing
・Some companies go bankrupt
Features of PhaseⅢ
- 54. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
What happens during Phase Ⅳ?
Market
Scale
(Ⅰ) (Ⅱ) (Ⅲ) (Ⅳ)
Time
Scale
- 55. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
・Process of declining from 100 to 80
・Matured market
・Supply >> Demand(Price decreasing)
・Peak for M&A(magical number “3”)
・Profit rate is the lowest
Features of PhaseⅣ
- 56. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
Another Some Defining Factors
which are sometimes forgotten are,,,
-Team Members(SOME Key Persons)
-Marketing Strategy
-Cashflow Projection Planning
- 58. Copyright © K Consulting All Rights Reserved.
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Capsheet Download HERE!
(Simulation Spreadsheet)