Tapio Räsänen: Back to work or stay-at-home mother? Maternal employment in Finland. Esitys Sosiaalipolitiikan päivillä Turussa 27.10.2016.

1. Back to work or stay-at-home
mother?
Maternal employment in Finland
Tapio Räsänen
Researcher, Kela
Sosiaalipolitiikan päivät 2016
Turku 27.–28.10.2016
In cooperation with:
Eva Österbacka, Professor, Åbo Akademi University
Anita Haataja, Senior Researcher, Kela
Maria Valaste, Senior Researcher, Kela

2. Maternal employment in Finland
• Maternal employment is internationally high
• Child-care system in Finland
• Child home care, Private day care, Public day care
Research question:
What affects the duration of mothers’ prolonged child care
spells?
− Personal and family characteristics?
− Previous labour market attachment?
− Policy?
− Business cycle?
2

3. Data & methodology
• 50 % random sample of Finnish mothers giving first
birth between 1999 and 2009
• Each cohort is followed up until 2013
• Data on
• Employment and unemployment spells
• Maternity and parental leave spells
• Child home care allowance spells
• We model return-to-work decision on
• Personal and family characteristics
• Previous work experience and labor market attachment
• Policy implications, e.g. municipal supplements
3

4. Back to work
Labour market attachment
4
Maximum age difference of 1st and 2nd child is 6 years.
Labour market attachment, previous 2 years: High >= 22 months, Low < 22 months.

5. Back to work after 2nd childbirth
Returning to work between childbirths
5
Maximum age difference of 1st and 2nd child is 3 years.

6. Survival analysis
What affects stay-at-home duration?
• We analyze the effect of covariates
− First visually
− with Kaplan-Meier curves
− with Cox proportional hazards models
• Cohorts 2002 and 2003
• New mothers are followed until they are right censored or
return to work:
− at next childbirth
− at dissolution or
− at 60 months (event = 0)
− return to work (event = 1)
6

7. Personal and family characteristics
Cohorts 2002 and 2003, high labour market attachment, one child
7

8. Kaplan-Meier curves 1/3
Cohorts 2002 and 2003, censor at dissolution at or next childbirth
8
Education Wage

9. Kaplan-Meier curves 2/3
Cohorts 2002 and 2003, censor at dissolution at or next childbirth
9
Age Municipal supplements

10. Kaplan-Meier curves 3/3
Cohorts 2002 and 2003, censor at dissolution at or next childbirth
10
Note: Unemployed and employed
Note: High labor market
attachment
Immigrant Immigrant

11. Preliminary model
with time-varying municipal supplements
11
Model: cohorts 2002 and 2003, high labour market attachment. N = 15 290
Parameter Class Distrubiton Parameter
estimate
Significant?
Age 19-25 19 % ref.
26-31 49 % *
32- 32 % ***
Education low 6 % ref.
medium 38 % *
high 55 % ***
Mother's wage -20 000 40 % ref.
20 000 to 30 000 42 % ***
30 000- 17 % ***
Immigrant no 95 % ref.
yes 5 % -
Partner's income -20 000 24 % ref.
20 000 to 30 000 38 % -
30 000- 38 % ***
Municipal supplements Neither 24 % ref.
Only private care 23 % *
Only child home care 6 % ***
Both 48 % -
Significance levels: *** = < 0.0001, ** = < 0.01, * = < 0.05 [-0.6, 0.6]
Blue: Returns to work faster
Red: Returns to work slower

12. Discussion & Ideas
• Ideas to remove business cycle effect and/or trend?
− We have access to regional unemployment rates (yearly)
− Construct (dummy) variable to account most of the time
structure?
Thank you!
12