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Global climate change by IPCC

  1. Global Climate ChangeGlobal Climate Change Both the joke and theBoth the joke and the reality.reality. By : Khawar NehalBy : Khawar Nehal 14 June 201314 June 2013 http://atrc.net.pkhttp://atrc.net.pk
  2. Global Climate Change • Identifiable change in the climate of Earth as a whole that lasts for an extended period of time (decades or longer) – When due to natural processes, it is usually referred to as global climate variability – Usually refers to changes forced by human activities that change the atmosphere
  3. What causes Earth’sWhat causes Earth’s climate to change?climate to change?  Changes in the atmosphereChanges in the atmosphere  Natural processesNatural processes  VolcanoesVolcanoes  Tectonic plate movementTectonic plate movement  Changes in the sunChanges in the sun  Human activities – any activity that releasesHuman activities – any activity that releases “greenhouse gases” into the atmosphere“greenhouse gases” into the atmosphere
  4. What areWhat are greenhousegreenhouse gases?gases?Any gases that cause the “greenhouseAny gases that cause the “greenhouse effect!”effect!” Imagine… a car on a cool but sunny day…
  5. Research • Almost 1000 studies dealing with different aspects of climate change have been conducted and published • So… how do we make sense of all this?
  6. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)  Why was it created?  Created in 1988 by the United Nations Environmental Program  Established to provide policy- makers with an objective source of information about climate change
  7. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)  Who is it?  Governments  Members of the UN  Participate by naming experts and reviewing the reports before they’re published  Scientists  Close to 1000 scientists  Climatologists, ecologists, atmospheric physicists, and others Dr. Susan Solomon, a NOAA atmospheric chemist, an IPCC member and one author of IPCC summary
  8. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)  What do they do?  Review current scientific and technical literature relevant to global climate change  Provide reports on their findings at regular intervals  Reports are designed to be politically neutral and of high scientific and technical standards
  9. How do they create their reports? It’s a multi-step process…
  10. IPCC – Words Used in Reports  When they discuss data:  Very high confidence to very low confidence that the data is accurate  When they discuss the likelihood of something occurring:  Virtually certain to exceptionally unlikely
  11. Observed Changes and Effects
  12. Warming of Climate • Warming of the climate is definitely occurring and can be observed by the: – Increases in global sea and air temperatures – Widespread melting of snow and ice – Rising global sea level
  13. Temperature Change Data 1880-1884
  14. 1880-18841886-1890
  15. 1896-1900
  16. 1906-1910
  17. 1916-1920
  18. 1926-1930
  19. 1936-1940
  20. 1946-1950
  21. 1956-1960
  22. 1966-1970
  23. 1976-1980
  24. 1986-1990
  25. 1996-2000
  26. 2003-2007
  27. Now for a shot of reality Here is the graph of the global temperature over the whole period. Notice the IPCC selects only the increasing sets to show that the difference is positive. It also selects a negative difference to show that circa 1880 it is cooling and heating less than now.
  28. Now for a killer shot of reality Please see the longer term temperature of the planet and understand that extinction and change are normal conditions for this planet. If humans are here or not, it would not make much difference to the planet as a whole. The difference with or without humans is a lot more than anything we are doing so far.
  29. Now back to what IPCC wants to say
  30. Other Observed Changes and Effects • 89% of current changes in ecosystems are consistent with changes expected due to global climate change • Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide levels in atmosphere have increased greatly due to human activities since 1750 and now far exceed previous levels • Carbon dioxide has increased by approximately 80% since 1970
  31. Human-Produced Greenhouse Gas Levels
  32. Causes of Change
  33. Most of the observed increase in global average temperature since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in human-caused greenhouse gas concentrations and human influences have very likely contributed to sea level rise, too.
  34. Notice the use of the term “Very likely” when they know that it is not the case.
  35. • Warming and sea level rise will continue and will probably occur more quickly than what we’ve already seen • Even if greenhouse gases are stabilized, this will probably continue to occur for centuries • Some effects may be permanent
  36. • Notice they state the truth. • Sea levels will continue to rise (and fall). Probably (they do not know) more quickly. Which means maybe. • Centuries of warming is not related to greenhouse gases but we can assume our lie and run it for many centuries or try to fool you to do things our way.
  37. • Effects on Ecosystems – Coral systems cannot handle higher temperatures well – Wildfires will increase – Up to 30% of species will be at increased risk for extinction due to the rapid changes in their ecosystems
  38. • Yes, we saw that things go extinct. Like the trilobites and the dinosaurs which humans were not around to save. And there is nothing we can do except keep a copy of the DNA to create a life form in the future. • How will the dodo bird survive a saber-tooth tiger in the future if it cannot even survive a cat. So even if we can replicate them in the future. We can only keep them in a zoo or as pets.
  39. • Effects in North America – Warming in western mountains: several effects – Increased rain: will actually help some crops – Heat waves will increase in number, length, and intensity – Coastal communities will be affected by increased flooding and storms
  40. There are several types of options… • Reduce emissions of greenhouse gases • Attempt to develop alternatives energies • Allow emission to continue, but prepare for global climate changes • Allow emissions to continue as normal and leave preparations up to individual countries • Combine any of these ideas • Come up with your own unique plan!
  41. There are several types of options… • And it won't make a difference because the theory is a lie from the beginning. • Find out who is pushing it and why. Then you can understand what economics are behind the idea.
  42. References http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record
  43. References • IPCC Summary Report for Policy Makers. November 2007 • "About IPCC." IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 20 Apr. 2009 <http://www.ipcc.ch/about/index.htm>. • "Climate Change | U.S. EPA." U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 20 Apr. 2009 <http://epa.gov/climatechange/index.html>. • Rischard, J. F. High noon twenty global problems, twenty years to solve them. New York: Basic Books, 2002. • "SVS Animations." NASA Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio. 20 Apr. 2009 <http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003400/a003490/ind ex.html>.
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