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IB syllabus: 3.1.1-3.1.4
Ch 12
Video: The Population Paradox – World in the Balance
Topic 3
Human Population
Human Populations:
Population Dynamics
1

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• 3.1.1: Describe the nature and explain the
implications of exponential growth in human
populations
• 3.1.2: Calculate and explain, from given data,
the values of crude birth rate, crude death rate,
fertility , doubling time and natural increase rate
• 3.1.3: Analyze age/sex pyramids and diagrams
showing demographic transition models
• 3.1.4: Discuss the use of models in predicting the
growth of human populations
Topic 3
Human Population
Syllabus Statements
2

3. Crude birth rate
Crude death rate
Demographic transition
Doubling time
Fertility
Rate of natural increase
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1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Topic 3
Human Population
vocabulary
3

4. Factors Effecting Population Size
• 3 factors effecting population birth, death, & migration.
• Crude Death rate = # deaths / 1000 people in year population
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• Crude Birth rate = # live births / 1000 people in year population.
Topic 3
Human Population
• Population change = (Birth + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)
• Rates more often used.
4

5. Average crude birth rate
Average crude death rate
World
21
9
All developed
countries
11
All developing
countries
Topic 3
Human Population
10
24
Developing
countries
(w/o China)
29
9
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
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8
5

6. 38
14
Latin
America
23
6
Asia
20
Oceania
18
7
United
States
15
9
North
America
14
9
Europe
Topic 3
Human Population
7
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© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Africa
6
10
11

7. Guru
• Worldwide birth and death rates dropping
• Death rate dropping faster than birth rate
• 216,000 people added to world population daily
• Exponential population growth still occurring but slower
• http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html Population counter
• But base number still increasing
• 79 x 106 people added per year
Topic 3
Human Population
World Population Change
7

8. World Population over the Centuries
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Topic 3
Human Population
9,000 human beings added to the
planet every hour
8

9. Topic 3
Human Population
<1%
1-1.9%
2-2.9%
3+%
Data not
available
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Annual world
population growth
9

10. Reasons for the Human Population Explosion
• Death rates dropping faster
because of
Topic 3
Human Population
B
Birth
Age
Death
Survival changed from B to A
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• Causes of disease
recognized
• Improvements in nutrition
• Discovery of antibiotics
• Improvements in medicine
• Increase in number of
women who actually reach
child-bearing age
A
10

11. Implications of Exponential Growth
• Increase strain on the environment – pollution,
sanitation needs, biodiversity loss
• Increase food production & land under production
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• Outstrip our resource base – nonrenewable gone,
renewable maybe used faster than replaced
Topic 3
Human Population
• Biotic potential exceeds environmental resistance: birth
rates exceed death rates
11

12. 12
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Topic 3
Human Population

13. • 14
• 5
• 258
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• America
• West Germany
• Africa
Topic 3
Human Population
Average Number of Children,
Grandchildren, and Great
Grandchildren
13

14. • Total fertility rate (TFR)= # of children a woman
will have in her childbearing years (15-49)
• TFR = 1.6 in developed countries, 3.1 in
developing countries
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• Replacement fertility – number of children a
couple must bear to replace themselves – roughly
2.1
• Reaching replacement fertility now would still
cause population growth for another 50 years
Topic 3
Human Population
Fertility
14

15. Calculating Fertility Rates and
Doubling Times
70/Rate of Increase = Doubling Time
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Topic 3
Human Population
(CBR – CDR)/10 = Rate of increase or decrease
in population per 1,000 per year
15

16. CBR
CDR
Kenya
33
13
Mexico
27
5
USA
15
9
Denmark 13
Rate of
Increase
Doubling
Time
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Country
Topic 3
Human Population
Calculating Fertility Rates and
Doubling Times: Practice
11
16

17. Calculating Fertility Rates and
Doubling Times: Answers
CDR
Kenya
33
13
Mexico
27
5
2.2
32
USA
15
9
0.6
116
11
0.2
350
431
Denmark 13
Rate of
Increase
2.0
Doubling
Time
35
Topic 3
Human Population
CBR
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Country
17

18. 4-4.9
2-2.9
5+
3-3.9
Data not
available
Worldwide TFR in 2002
Topic 3
Human Population
<2
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Births per woman
18

19. Population projections based on TFR (H = 2.6, M = 2.1, L = 1.7)
12
9
8
High
10.9
Medium
Low
Medium
9.3
7
6
Low
7.3
5
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Population (billions)
10
High
Topic 3
Human Population
11
4
3
2
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Year
19
2050

20. 4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.1
2.0
1.5
Topic 3
Human Population
Baby boom
(1946-64)
1.0
0.5
0
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
Demographic
14
transition
0
1910
1920
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Births per thousand population
Births per woman
US fertility and the “baby boom”
End of World War II
Depression
Baby boom
1930
1940
1950
1960
Year
Baby bust
1970
20
Echo baby boom
1980
1990
2000
2010

21. 2.
3.
4.
Importance of children for
labor  higher in
developing countries &
rural areas
Urbanization  more
family planning resources,
less need for children in
cities
Cost of raising or educating
children  more expensive
to raise in developed areas
Education & Employment
for women  less
opportunity outside of
house higher TFR
5. Infant mortality rate  When
infant mortality lower fewer
children needed
6. Average age at marriage 
Fewer children when 25 or
older for marriage
7. Availability of pension 
Eliminate need for kids to take
care of you
8. Availability of Legal abortion
9. Availability of & Reliability of
birth Control
10.Religious beliefs, traditions,
cultural norms
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1.
Topic 3
Human Population
Factors effecting Birth & TFR
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22. Guru
• Infant mortality and Life Expectancy are good
indicators of health in a country
• Global life expectancy is increasing
• Poorest countries it may still be low or even falling
(AIDS in Africa)
• Infant mortality encompasses nutrition & health care
so it’s a good measure
• Still 8 million infants worldwide dieing of
preventable causes in first year of life
• US – teen pregnancy rate highest of all industrialized
countries
Topic 3
Human Population
Life & Death
22

23. 23
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Topic 3
Human Population

24. Topic 3
Human Population
<10
10-35
36-70
71-100
100+
Data not
available
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Infant deaths per 1,000
live births
24

25. Different Worlds
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Topic 3
Human Population
• Rich nations, poor nations
• Population growth in rich and poor nations
• Different populations, different problems
25

26. Population
(2002)
288 million
174 million
130 million
United States (highly developed)
Brazil (moderately developed)
Nigeria (less developed)
Population
projected
(2025)
219 million
205 million
6.8
33
75
Life
expectancy
77 years
69 years
52 years
Fertility
rate (TFR)
2.1
2.2
5.8
%Population
under
age 15
% Population
over
age 65
Per capita
GNI PPP
(2000)
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21%
Topic 3
Human Population
Infant
mortality
rate
346 million
33%
44%
13%
5%
3%
26
$34,100
$7,300
$800
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

27. Economic Categories Based on Per
Capita Gross National Income
• Middle-income, moderately developed countries
• Latin America, South Africa, China
• Average GNI per capita = $1,850
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• United States, Japan, Canada
• Average GNI per capita = $26,710
Topic 3
Human Population
• High-income, highly developed, industrialized
countries
• Low-income, developing countries
• Western and central Africa, India, central Asia
• Average GNI per capita = $430
27

28. Disparities
• Developed countries
• 16% of the world’s population
• Control 81% of the world’s wealth
• Difference in per capita income: 62 to 1!
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• 41% of the world’s population
• Control 3.4% of the world’s gross national income
Topic 3
Human Population
• Low-income developing countries
28

29. Guru
Topic 3
Human Population
Population Increase in Developed
and Developing Countries
29

30. © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Developed Countries
40
Rate of
natural increase
30
Topic 3
Human Population
Crude
birth rate
20
Crude
death rate
10
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Rate per 1,000 people
50
Rate of natural increase = crude birth rate – crude death rate
0
1775 1800
1850
1900
Year
1950
2000
2050
30

31. © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Developing Countries
50
40
Rate of
natural
increase
30
Topic 3
Human Population
Crude
death rate
20
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Rate per 1,000 people
Crude
birth rate
10
0
1775 1800
1850
1900
Year
1950
2000
2050
31

32. Population Age Structure
• Represent a good comparison between countries
• Compare Growth  Rapid, Slow, Zero, Negative
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• Prereproductive: 0 – 14 years
• Reproductive: 15 – 44 years
• Postreproductive: 45 and up
Topic 3
Human Population
• Analysis by sex, of the proportion of population at each age level
• 3 main age categories
32

33. Male
Rapid Growth
Guatemala
Nigeria
Saudi Arabia
Ages 0-14
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Female
Slow Growth
United States
Australia
Canada
Ages 15-44
Ages 45-85+
Topic 3
Human Population
Female
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Male
33

34. Male
Zero Growth
Spain
Austria
Greece
Ages 0-14
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Female
Negative Growth
Germany
Bulgaria
Sweden
Ages 15-44
Ages 45-85+
Topic 3
Human Population
Female
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Male
34

35. Age Structure & Population Growth
• Population has stabilized or declining in most developed
countries
• Many developing countries expected to double or triple before
stabilizing
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• Depends on the number of females as well
• In 2002 30% of world population was below 15 (33% in
developing countries)
Topic 3
Human Population
• Country with many people under 15 has large potential for
population increase.
• Mexico, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Brazil
35

36. Guru
• Countries like Iraq will
continue to grow for
50–60 years even after
the total fertility rate is
reduced to replacement
level.
Topic 3
Human Population
Population
Momentum
36

37. Track the baby boomers through age pyramids
Currently ½ of adult Americans
Dominate demand for goods, services, & control politics and laws
The social security problem – Paid for by current workers, fewer
than boomers
• Future impact = later retirement, more taxes, …
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•
•
•
•
Topic 3
Human Population
Projections of Population and
Economics
37

38. Age
Age
Females
Males
Age
Males
2015
4
84
12
Millions
16
4
128
16
20 Millions
Age
Females
Males
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1955
20 Females
16
8 12
20
20
16
12
48
Topic 3
Human Population
Females
Males
20
1985
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
24
1620
12
48
4
128
16
20
Millions
24
2035
20
38
20
16
12
48
4
128
16
20
Millions
24

39. Guru
Number of workers supporting
each Social Security beneficiary
20
1950
16.5
10
1945
Topic 3
Human Population
40
1945
41.9 workers
30
0
2075
1.9
2000
Year
2050 2075
39

40. If many populations stable now
At some future time they will begin to decline
By 2050 – 39 countries are expected to be in decline
If rapid, can cause problems (1) consume public services,
health care, social security; (2) labor shortage, increased
reliance on immigrant labor
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•
•
•
•
Topic 3
Human Population
Problems with Population decline
40

41. 40
30
Global
Aging
20
15
10
5
0
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130 2150
Year
Under age 15
Topic 3
Human Population
25
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Age Distribution (%)
35
Age 60 or over
Age 80 or over
41

42. Population decline from rising
death rates
Sharp decrease in average life expectancy
Loss of productive workers
Rise in numbers of orphans
Drop in food production with loss of laborers
• Need new Marshall Plan
• Reduce HIV spread: education, health services
• Restore economic progress: aid as $ & volunteers
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•
•
•
•
Topic 3
Human Population
• HIV epidemic in Africa kills 6000 daily
• Kills mostly young adults
42

43. Guru
• Wrong question?
• What is the optimum number of people that can be
sustainably supported by the earth without further
environmental degradation
• Optimum would allow people to live comfortably without
harming future generations
Topic 3
Human Population
Is the world overpopulated?
43

44. Reducing births!
- Violation of personal and religious freedoms
- Viewed as a form of genocide by some ethnic groups
- BUT
- We currently don’t provide basic needs for 1/6 of the
world population
- Increasing environmental harm & death rates
- Life span longer today so we have a greater per person
impact too
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1.
Topic 3
Human Population
Solutions
44

45. Demographic Transition Hypothesis
As countries become industrialized first death rate then birth rate
will decline
1.
Preindustrial Stage  harsh living conditions = little population
growth, high B & D
Industrial Stage  Industry continues = population grows but
Topic 3
Human Population
Transitional Stage  industrialization starts, better healthcare &
slowly, B > D by a little
2.
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•
food = population growth is rapid, high B & lower D
3.
4.
Postindustrial Stage  population growth stops, B = D (13% of
world) then B < D an may start to decline (this may be stage 5)
45

46. Stage 1
Preindustrial
Stage 2
Transitional
Stage 3
Industrial
Stage 4
Postindustrial
60
50
Birth rate
40
30
Death rate
20
10
Total population
0
Low
growth rate
Increasing
growth rate
Very high
growth rate
Decreasing
growth rate
Low
Low
growth rate
Zero
growth rate
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Relative population size
Birth rate and death rate
(number per 1,000 per year)
70
Topic 3
Human Population
High
80
Negative
growth rate
Time
46

47. Guru
Topic 3
Human Population
Demographic Transition Comparisons
47

48. Demographic Transition Hypothesis
• Most developing countries today have death rates declining
• Fear that population growth in these areas will overcome
economic growth
• Demographic Trap: get stuck in a stage
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• Still in Transitional stage
Topic 3
Human Population
more than birth rates
• Countries lack skilled workers, capital & resources, drop in
economic assistance
48

49. Doing so will reduce abortion rates & save lives as well
Family Planning – info on birth spacing, birth control and
prenatal care
Empowering women – education, job opportunities, womens
rights
2.
•
3.
Women work 2/3 all hours worked, 10% income
Economic Rewards & Penalties – payments to individuals who
use contraceptives
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•
1.
Topic 3
Human Population
Can we reduce Birth rates
49

50. Male
sterilization
5%
Condom
5%
Global
Contraceptive Use
Pill
8%
No method
43%
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Topic 3
Human Population
Other
methods
10%
IUD
12%
50
Female sterilization
17%

51. India: A Case Study
GNIPP is $2,340 a year
Unemployment = 50%
40% population, 50% children suffer malnutrition
16% world population, 2% resources
½ cropland degraded, 70% water seriously polluted
• Overall, program disappointing & poorly done
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•
•
•
•
•
Topic 3
Human Population
• World’s first national family planning program
• After 50 years it is still the second most populous country in world
(1 billion)
51

52. China: A Case Study
• 1972-2002 cut crude birth rate in half, TFR from 5.7 to 1.8 children per
woman
UN projects population drop by 2042
It was either population control or starvation
Population still growing, mass environmental impact
But projected to be on the decline by 2040
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•
•
•
•
Topic 3
Human Population
• Encourage late marriage & 1 child per family
• Contraception. Sterilization, Abortion = FREE
• Reward Food, $$$, School tuition, Medical care
52

53. India
China
Percentage
of world
population
16%
21%
Population (2000)
1 billion
1.3 billion
Population (2025)
(estimated)
1.4 billion
1.4 billion
Illiteracy (%of adults)
47%
36%
25%
Population growth rate (%)
Total fertility rate
1.8%
0.9%
3.3 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970)
1.8 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972)
Infant mortality rate
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Population under age 15(%)
Topic 3
Human Population
17%
72
31
Life expectancy
GNP per capita
(1998)
61 years
71 years
$440
$750
53

54. Cutting Global Population Growth
Universal access to family planning
Improve health care – infants, children, women
Social & Economic plans for countries
Increase access to education
Eradicate poverty
Eliminate unsustainable patterns of production and consumption
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•
•
•
•
•
•
Topic 3
Human Population
• UN encouraging world population stability
54

55. Guru
• We can’t see the future
• But we have good predictive power based on current numbers
• Using birth & death rates, fertility and extrapolation we can
model populations into the future
• Models based on mathematical calculations of future
predictions
Topic 3
Human Population
The use of Models
55

56. Computer Simulations
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Topic 3
Human Population
• View Population connection simulation
56

57. Demographic Tables
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Topic 3
Human Population
• http://www.wpro.who.int/publications/databas
es/demographic_tables/en/
57

58. Guru
Topic 3
Human Population
Projecting Future Populations: Age/Sex Pyramids
58

59. Guru
Topic 3
Human Population
Graphical Extrapolation: World
Population
59

60. Guru
Topic 3
Human Population
• http://www.shambles.net/worldclock/worldclock.swf
60

61. Guru
Topic 3
Human Population
Review Topics
61

62. High fertility rates
High consumptive lifestyles: use 80% of world’s wealth
Intense poverty
Eat high on the food chain
Long doubling times
High environmental degradation
Twenty percent of the world’s population
Rule of 70 – yrs it takes for pop to double
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•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Topic 3
Human Population
Are these characteristics of Developing
or Developed Nations?
62

63. Compare Projected Populations in
Developing and Developed Countries
Fertility Rate
<2
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Topic 3
Human Population
Fertility Rate
>2
63

64. LESS
biodiversity
pest resistance
wetlands
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More Population
MORE
Causes
deforestation
resource depletion
loss of agricultural land
disease
population migration
Irrigation
Topic 3
Human Population
Consequences of Exploding
Populations
64