1.
TAKING THE LONG VIEW: ICT
TRENDS & DEVELOPMENTS
November 1, 2011 @ TTU
Kristjan Rebane, Estonian Development Fund

2.
Kristjan Rebane
 At the Estonian Development Fund as Expert of
Information Society since 2007
 Before that almost 8 years at the Estonian
Information Society Foundation
– starting up the IT College and
– establishing IT education spport programme Tiger
University
 Previously more than 7 years at the Open Estonia
Foundation (local branch of Soros Foundations) in
areas of IT, economics, health care and several
scholarship schemes

3.
Preview into today’s topics
1 About Development Fund
2 Technological Development In the World
3 Technology Trends As Seen In 2011

4.
1
About Development Fund
 Founded as a public law institution
 By Riigikogu (the Parliament) in 2007
 With two main tasks:
– Venture capital investments
– Foresight
 www.arengufond.ee/eng
 Twitter: Arengufond

5.
1
Ignoranti, quem portum petat, nullus suus ventus est
(If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no
wind is favourable)
SENECA

6.
1
Development Fund’s Foresight work
Ad hoc Ad hoc
analysis / analysis /
In-house or In-house or
commissione commissioned
d
13

7.
2
Where are new techologies born?
TECHNOLOGICAL
DEVELOPMENT
IN THE WORLD

8.
2
About technology and the future
Estonia in 2018+
• A typical household has over
1000 microprocessors
• Petabite (1 PB = 1 millon GB) is the most
commonly used data unit
• The volume of video calls in minutes
exceeds that of voice calls

9.
2
And we don’t know,
what the future holds...
 In 2004 there didn’t
exist 10 of the top
professions of 2020!
 Today’s student in
the USA will have
had 10-14 jobs by
the age of 38*
* Source: USA Dept of Education

10.
2
Hype Cycle, Gartner 2011

11.
2
Long waves

12.
2
Technology adoption speeds up
Time to reach 50 million users
Once the rules of game in the
world changed every 1000
years, then 300, then 100 and
then (in the 20th century) every
25 years
...but the human
nature has remained
basically the same!
Source: Forrester Research, Morgan Stanley, 2008

13.
2
Where are the new techologies born?
Where there are more people
dedicated to creating them!
Source: www.worldmapper.org

14.
2
Already today: dependence
on a computer
On October 1, 2008
A computer glitch
erased
HALF of
Google’s stock value
($200 of $400)
i.e. $62 billion
in just 4 minutes
Source: TechCrunch.com, Google Stock Falls $200 as Market Closes

15.
2
Already today: dependence
on a computer
On October 1, 2008
A computer glitch
erased
HALF of
Google’s stock value
($200 of $400)
i.e. $62 billion
in just 4 minutes

16.
2
23

17.
2
ICT Grand Vision in the world
Trust & ICT for Societal ICT for Economic Science and
Confidence Challenges Challenges Engineering
Applied ICT for Major Societal and Economic Challenges
Enabling anywhere anytime natural and
enjoyable access to ICT services for ALL
Miniaturised, low cost Pervasive mobile
Natural interaction
low power components wireless, trustful
with ‘knowledge’
& systems infrastructure
µ, nano & opto- µ and nano Communication Software Knowledge User
electronics systems & networking technologies technologies interfaces
More in EST_IT@2018 report!

18.
2 Where is the world going?
Computing everywhere
Very small
compinents and
microsystems
with low energy
consumption
Image: Wired Magazine, Artifacts from the future

19.
2 Where is the world going?
Communications everywhere
Ubiquitous,
mobile,
wireless and
trustworthy
infrastructure
Image: Wired Magazine, Artifacts from the future

20.
2 Where is the world going?
Data everywhere
Data
management
and
user interfaces
Image: Wired Magazine, Artifacts from the future

21.
TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
AS SEEN IN 2011

22.
3
Technology trends of 2011
1. Mobile – Early Innings Growth, Still…
2. User Interface –
Text → Graphical → Touch / Sound / Move
3. Mega-Trend of 21st Century =
Empowerment of People via
Connected Mobile Devices
Based on Mary Meeker’s presentation
at Web 2.0 Summit San Francisco on October 18, 2011

23.
3
Mobile: Smartphones Surpassed
Feature Phone Shipments

24.
3
Mobile: Android ‘Phone’ Adoption
Has Ramped
Even Faster than iPhone

25.
3
Mobile Usage – Big & Ramping Fast

26.
3
Mobile Search – Growing Rapidly

27.
3
User Interface: Natural User Interface
Revolution–Now in Touch/Sound/Move Era

28.
3
Sound is going to be bigger than
video… ‘Record’ is the new
QWERTY.
Alexander Ljung, Founder & CEO, SoundCloud

29.
3
User Interface: The Next Big Thing(s)?
Those Two Big Things on the Sides of Your Head…

30.
3 Global Information Flow –
Real-Time + Fast + Broad
16 Minutes Before / After Japan Earthquake on 3/11/11
Snapshots of @replies From & To Twitter Users in Japan
2:30pm Japan Time 2:46pm Japan Time
Before Earthquake / Tsunami After Earthquake / Tsunami
Note: Yellow lines indicate tweets coming out of Japan; Pink lines indicate tweets coming into Japan. Source:
Twitter.
„In 140-character bites, the story unfolded: the shock and terror; the sense of human
frailty mixed with lifesaving information; the messages of those seeking comfort and
those seeing some kind of divine retribution, all mixing at hyper-speed.“ (LATimes,
3/11/11)

31.
3
Global Information Flow –
Remote Locations Getting Connected
 85% of world’s population covered by
commercial wireless signals, providing greater
reach vs. electrical grid (80%).*
 200MM+ farmers in India receiving
government payments / subsidies via mobile
devices.**
Source:
*GSM Association, United Nations.
**There are 90MM Kisan credit card users and 118MM job card users, both of which do not require bank accounts but utilize
mobile phones as identity verification / payment confirmation, per Ministry of Rural Development, Government of India.

32.
3
Closing Thoughts
 Economy – Often darkest before dawn. At least we
know what the problems are. Now we need the
resolve to fix them. Across-the-board sacrifice
needed.
 Tech Industry – Wow! Unprecedented times! If you
can keep your head when all about you are losing
theirs…*
“The majority of our products today will be gone in
ten years,” Samsung’s chairman Lee Kun-hee, in
January (via the Economist Oct 11, 2011).
*Rudyard Kipling - ‘If’

33.
THE FUTURE IS ALREADY HERE!
(It’s just not very evenly distributed)
Kristjan Rebane
kristjan.rebane@arengufond.ee
Skype callto://kristjan.rebane/
http://www.arengufond.ee/eng/foresight/estit2018/