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Change the World Change the World
Thunderbird
Tim Draper Tim Draper, April 4, 2006
What Needs Changing? Business Solves Problems
Energy Energy (EnerNoc, Konarka, GreenFuel)
Security Security (Lumena, SafeView)
Health Care Health Care (Lumenos)
Traffic, Pollution Traffic, Pollution (Skype, Festoon, Visto, TagWorld)
Poverty Poverty (Sugar CRM, SocialText, World of Good)
Education Education (Baidu, DivX, for-profit schools)
Roads, Prisons, Airports Roads, Prisons, Airports (Private Alternatives)
Governments Make Governments Compete.
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Competitive Governance Imagine
Geographic Borders Fall Chile’s Privatized Social Security
Better communication Singapore’s Business Environment
Perfect information America’s Religious Freedoms
Simplified supply chains Sweden’s Social Security
Russia’s Science Education
Make Governments compete Cayman’s Corporate Structure
For great businesses Internet Tax System
For capital No Sarbanes No Oxley No 409A
For entrepreneurs
The DFJ Network
Entrepreneurs are Heroes
DFJ Primaxis
Toronto, ONT
DFJ Portage DFJ ePlanet
Long odds to extraordinary outcome
Chicago, IL
Timberline London
Ventures DFJ New England
Seattle, WA Cambridge, MA
At risk:
DFJ Gotham
DFJ Frontier
New York, NY
Sacramento &
Santa Barbara, CA Draper Triangle
Financial
Pittsburgh, PA
Draper Fisher Jurvetson
Menlo Park, CA Draper Atlantic
Reston, VA
DFJ ePlanet Zone Ventures
Social
Beijing Los Angeles, CA DFJ SI Ventures
Raleigh, NC &
Wasatch Ventures
Fort Meyers, FL
DFJ ePlanet Salt Lake City, UT, DFJ Mercury
Career
Singapore Phoenix, AZ & Houston, TX
Albuquerque, NM
Access Ventures
Westminister, CO &
Austin, TX
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Major Waves What We Want
• Entrepreneurs
– Passion and Energy
Arnold – Heroes
– Leaders
Baidu • Companies
– Early Stage companies in New Industries
Skype – Unique--Surprise me
– Change the World
Video • Industries
– Large, Changing
– Overthrow lazy, bureaucratic incumbents
Business Model Planning Consumer Internet Companies:
Share and Connect
Eliminate: Expense Items, Balance Sheet Items
Grow customer base cheaply (viral
Reach and Retain Customers Efficiently
marketing, leveraged marketing)
Win Win Win
Frictionless AND Sticky
Build a community
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Vacuum
ElectroMechanical Relay Transistor Integrated Circuit
Technology Exponentials
Tube
Calculations per Second per $1000
Dickerson’s Formula for Solved 3D
• Evolution Protein Structures, 1961 ‐ 2002
• Computation
• Storage
• Bandwidth
• Internet
• Genes mapped
• MRI Scan resolution
… Not products or companies, but
basic technological capabilities
Source: Ray Kurzweil, each dot is a computing machine
Genome Base Pairs Sequenced
Internet Growth:
Source: Ray Kurzweil
The linear, intuitive view…
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GenBank
Hotmail Subscriber Growth
GenBank Growth
Acquired
35,000,000 45,000,000,000
12,000,000
40,000,000,000
30,000,000
10,000,000
35,000,000,000
25,000,000
8,000,000
30,000,000,000
Sequences (#)
20,000,000
Base Pairs
25,000,000,000
6,000,000
Base Pairs
Sequences
20,000,000,000
15,000,000
4,000,000
15,000,000,000
10,000,000
2,000,000
10,000,000,000
Launch
5,000,000
0
5,000,000,000
7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0 0
1996 1997
1982 1987 1992 1997 2002
Date
Viral Marketing Virus Marketing
Users
14,000,000 SARS Polio Hepatitus B
12,000,000
10,000,000
ICQ
8,000,000 Hotmail
Skype
6,000,000
Ebola Astrovirus Hoof in Mouth
Kazaa
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Months from First Users
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Viral Marketing
Breakthroughs Last 100+ Years
• Phone, Computer, Automobile, Airplane,
Microwave, Penicillin, Oil Discovery,
Fission Energy, Heart Surgery, CAD,
Nanotech, Water Purification, Irrigation,
Hydroelectricity, Search Engines, Stock
Trading, TV, VCR, Fax Machines, Genetic
Engineering, Man on the Moon. The Pill,
The Bomb, Radio, Networks, eMail,
Banking, Photography, Video
Conferencing, Ecology, X-Rays, etc.
Breakthroughs Next 20 Years
• Fusion Energy, Space Travel, Competitive
Governance, 3-D Highways, Complete
10,000-37=9,963 years to go
Video History, Non-invasive Security,
Near-Thought Communications, Wireless
Power Distribution, Privatized Education,
150-Year Lives, Person on Mars,
Desalinated Water, 10 Billion People,
Cancer & AIDS Cures, Food Drop,
Processors>all human brains, Free World
Travel, Nanotech, etc.
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The Riskmaster (all rights reserved)
(Lyrics by Tim Draper) Needs a “world class CEO.”
Just another million or so
Invested all his mattress money Get him to some real cash flow
Divorced his Prom Queen hometown honey So tears and sweat can IPO
Scraping up his alimony
Friends think he’s a little “funny”
Chorus:
For 15 years he’s been out gunned
Bankers demanding blood refund He is the Riskmaster
Company’s looking Moribund Lives fast drives faster
Even Draper will not fund! Skates on the edge of disaster
He is the Riskmaster
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He’s got a mission
Company vision Team fights on against the trend
An artist’s ambition Had to lay off his best friend
Gut intuition Called a “recession” seems like
Fearless and free employee “depression.”
No guarantee for the corporate escapee Chapter seven. Is this the end?
Chorus:
But then a salesman shouts, “We got it!”
The company’s gonna show a profit He is the Riskmaster
To think the papers rang, “quixotic” Lives fast drives faster
The sky has opened astronautic. Skates on the edge of disaster
He is the Riskmaster
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He is on top, on top of the world Chorus:
At last they see it. Vision unfurled!
Cashflow landslide! He is the Riskmaster
Now everybody wants a piece of his hide.
Lives fast drives faster
Court wants him tried. Press wants him fried.
Skates on the edge of disaster
Anyone this rich must have lied.
He is the Riskmaster
Thank You
Tim Draper
Draper Fisher Jurvetson
Tim@DFJ.com
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