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Ten most popular software for prediction of cyclonic storms

In recent years the frequency and intensity of cyclones and hurricanes have been increased manifold compared to the last decade. As a result, the necessity for the development of computer models to predict the track, intensity, and time of occurrence of cyclonic storms has increased to avoid loss of life and prevention of damages to public properties. In this presentaion I had tried to highlight the ten most used models in this aspect which are responsible for saving millions of life and their livelihood.

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Ten most popular software for prediction of cyclonic storms

  1. 1. TEN MOST POPULAR SOFTWARE FOR PREDICTION OF CYCLONIC STORM DR. MRINMOY MAJUMDER
  2. 2. What is Cyclone ? A general term for a weather system in which winds rotate inwardly to an area of low atmospheric pressure. The circulation pattern is in counter clockwise direction in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise direction in the Southern Hemisphere. There are three different types of cyclones mainly observed in tropical and sub tropical regions : tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones and tornadoes. More detail description about cyclones can be found at https://wxguys.ssec.wisc.edu/2019/04/29/cyclo ne/
  3. 3. How cyclones are formed ? Tropical cyclones form only over warm ocean waters near the equator. Warm and moist air over the ocean rises upward from near the surface. Air from surrounding areas with higher air pressure pushes in to the low pressure area. This also becomes warm and moist and as a consequence rises and this process repeats itself forming a centrifugal movement. The warmed and moist air rises and cools the water in the air forms clouds. This system grows continuously. “When the winds in the rotating storm reach 39 mph (63 kmph), the storm is called a “tropical storm”. “ When the wind speeds reach 74 mph (119 kmph), the storm is officially a “tropical cyclone” or hurricane. However, this system sequentially loses energy when it come inland where it causes rainfall and wind storm and then “vanishes into thin air” More detailed explanation can be found from https://sites.google.com/site/disasterportal/stroms_ cyclones/cyclone-formation
  4. 4. What is the difference between Hurricane and Cyclones They are all basically the same thing, but are given different names depending on where they appear. Hurricanes are tropical storms that form over the North Atlantic Ocean and Northeast Pacific. Cyclones are formed over the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale Source : https://sites.google.com/site/disasterportal/stroms_cyclones/cyclone- formation
  5. 5. Major Cyclones/Hurricanes 1900 : Galveston Hurricane hit Galveston Island, on Texas' eastern coast, in 1900. 1979:The strongest tropical cyclone recorded worldwide, as measured by minimum central pressure, which reached a pressure of 870 hPa (25.69 inHg) on October 12, 1979. 2005: Hurricane Wilma is the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded, after reaching an intensity of 882 mbar (hPa; 26.05 inHg) in October 2005. 2020 : The first pre-monsoon cyclone in a century : Cyclone Amphan followed by Cyclone Nisarga, (hit the financial capital of India) 2021: Out of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher) around 50% is expected to become hurricanes and about 25% will cause category 3, 4 or 5 level Hurricanes. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. Already two cyclones has created land fall in two peninsula of India : Cyclone Taukait and Cyclone Yash.
  6. 6. Types of Computer Models Used for Cyclone Prediction Cyclones or Hurricanes can cause severe damage to life and livelihood of mankind. As a result, it is important to anticipate the cyclones well in advance That is why, various computer based models are prepared nowadays to approximate cyclones/hurricanes. The models can be categorized with respect to its objective into three groups :: to predict the time of occurrence of the cyclone to estimate the intensity of cyclone and to forecast the track of the cyclones. Computer models currently do well in the speculation of the path of tropical cyclones, but they are not as reliable in foretelling changes in intensity more than 24 hours in advance. Once forecasters have calculated that a cyclone or hurricane is likely to make landfall, warnings are issued for the areas that may be affected. Ten Most popular and contemporary cyclone prediction computer models are discussed next.
  7. 7. Ten Most Popular Cyclone Prediction Models CLIPER The Aviation Model BAM (Beta and Advection Model) The GFDL Model VICBAR NHC93 HWRF Cyclocane Spaghetti Models COAMPS-TC Ensemble HMON
  8. 8. CLIPER CLIPER is the only purely statistical model still in use. The acronym stands for CLImatology and PERsistence. The only inputs to CLIPER are the storm's current and previous positions, its motion and intensity, and the time of the year. Because CLIPER knows nothing about the meteorological situation, forecasters use it as a "no skill" prediction against which other models are judged. It is designed as a statistical regression equation based on past data and current climatological data. This was the major forecasting model used up until the 1980's.
  9. 9. The Aviation Model The Aviation Model is a version of National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)'s (formerly National Meteorological Center (NMC)'s) operational forecast model. It is a multilevel, global spectral model with T126 truncation, equivalent to 106 km horizontal resolution. Hurricane track forecasting capability is attained by inserting a synthetic vortex into the initial analysis at the observed hurricane position and tracking the vortex motion as the model calculation evolves.
  10. 10. BAM (Beta and Advection Model) BAM (Beta and Advection Model) assumes that the hurricane moves with the aviation model's winds (vertically averaged and filtered to remove the hurricane) plus a drift toward the pole and westward due to the northward increase of the Coriolis parameter (the "beta effect"). BAM comes in three versions, shallow, medium, and deep, depending upon the depth over which the vertical average is computed.
  11. 11. The GFDL Model The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory(GFDL) Model is a full physics model, developed as a research tool at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, that has become fully operational. With its fine resolution (about 19km) and other special adaptations to the hurricane problem, it have an excellent forecasting record.
  12. 12. VICBAR VICBAR is a specialized forecast model developed at Hurricane Research Division(HRD)/Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory(AOML). It replaces the complex dynamics of the atmosphere with a layer of fluid with constant density, representing the average motions between 850 and 200 hPa. Despite its simplified dynamics and 50 km resolution, it is also a powerful forecast model.
  13. 13. NHC93 NHC93 was developed at National Hurricane Centre(NHC) in National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA). It is the only statistical-dynamical model now in use. It uses the output from the aviation model in a series of statistical regression relations to predict hurricane motion.
  14. 14. More details about the six models More details about CLIPER, Aviation Model, BAM, GFDL,VICBAR and NHC93 can be found at the source as given below : Hurricane Research Division,2014,HURRICANE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS, Retrieved from https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hrd_sub/models.html as on 27th May 2021
  15. 15. HWRF HWRF is the driving dynamical model of the Real-Time Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance at the National Hurricane Center, and has become the flagship intensity prediction tool for hurricane forecasting at the National Weather Service. Reference : Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model(HWRF), Retrieved from http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2005/HWRF.html on 27.05.202
  16. 16. Cyclocane Spaghetti Models Cyclocane Spaghetti models (also called spaghetti plots) is the nickname given to the group of computer models that show potential tropical cyclone paths. When shown together, the individual model tracks can somewhat resemble strands of spaghetti. In short, it gives you a way to see where a tropical storm or hurricane may head. It can also give insight into whether the models are in agreement on the path of the storm (for instance, all models show Florida in the path of a hurricane) or if there is a wide differing opinion on where the storm may go. Reference : Croft,H.,2021,Cyclocane,Retrieed from https://www.cyclocane.com/spaghetti- models/ on 27052021.
  17. 17. COAMPS-TC Ensemble The 11-member Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System-Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC) ensemble has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) to produce probabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) track, intensity and structure. All members run with a storm-following inner grid at convection-permitting 4-km horizontal resolution. The COAMPS-TC ensemble is constructed via a combination of perturbations to initial and boundary conditions, the initial vortex, and model physics to account for a variety of different sources of uncertainty that affect track and intensity forecasts. Unlike global model ensembles, which do a reasonable job capturing track uncertainty but not intensity, mesoscale ensembles such as the COAMPS-TC ensemble are necessary to provide a realistic intensity forecast spectrum. The ensemble-mean track and intensity forecast is superior to the unperturbed control forecast at all lead times, demonstrating a clear advantage to running an ensemble versus a deterministic forecast. Reference :Komaromi, William A., Patrick A. Reinecke, James D. Doyle, and Jonathan R. Moskaitis. " The Naval Research ,Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0038.1
  18. 18. HMON Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model or HMON is relatively new Hurricane forecast system running operationally at NCEP. It has been coupled to the HYCOM ocean model for North Atlantic, Eastern and Central Pacific basins. It is developed for prediction of both track and intensity of hurricanes. HMON v3.0.0 is the latest version. For more details visit https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/txt_descriptions/HMON_doc.shtml
  19. 19. Conclusion To predict the path of a storm, meteorologists uses multiple models which are also known as ensemble. The original best model was CLIPER (Climate and Persistence which was the major forecasting model used up until the 1980’s. However with the advent of sophisticated computational systems such models get improved and presently highly advanced models are developed which not only uses meteorological data but also include remotely sensed imageries and various image processing algorithms to analyse and forecast the track of cyclones. Due to this immense advance in recent years , a cyclone alert (or cyclone watch) can be issued 48 hours in advance of any expected storm and a cyclone warning within 24 hours in advance. Although, much more improvement can be imbibed. Intensive research and their researchers need to be encouraged by the governments of specially those countries, where massive damages are incurred by such storms every year. Due to the impact of climate change and rapid urbanization. Such occurrence of severe storms are increasing day by day.
  20. 20. Thank you My ResearchGate Id : Mrinmoy_Majumder Home Page: http://www.mrinmoymajumder.com Author of: Lecture Notes on MCDM Indian Link: https://www.instamojo.com/baipatra/lecture-notes-on- mcdm/ ; Global Link: https://gum.co/zuPVt Contact Us or Subscribe by scanning the QR code Scan the QR Code Scan the QR Code Promo : Buy

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In recent years the frequency and intensity of cyclones and hurricanes have been increased manifold compared to the last decade. As a result, the necessity for the development of computer models to predict the track, intensity, and time of occurrence of cyclonic storms has increased to avoid loss of life and prevention of damages to public properties. In this presentaion I had tried to highlight the ten most used models in this aspect which are responsible for saving millions of life and their livelihood.

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