1. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
The Greater Richmond Real
Estate Market
Lacy Williams
Joyner Fine Properties
June 2015
11
2. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
Background
• This report is designed to provide information on the Richmond VA
housing Market as well as the National Market.
• Graphs in this report on the National Market are obtained from
Keeping Current Matters and from the National Association of
Realtors (NAR). For additional information on Keeping Current
Matters, or to subscribe to this service, please go to
www.KeepingCurrentMatters.com. For additional information on
the National Association of Realtors, go to www.realtor.org.
• The graphs and analysis of the Richmond area are produced by Lacy
Williams of Joyner Fine Properties using the Central Virginia
Regional Multiple Listing Service (CVRMLS) data. Data was
extracted in June 2015 for most of the graphs. The Greater
Richmond area is defined as the city of Richmond and the counties
of Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, Goochland and Powhatan.
22
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National
Economic Data
33
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8 Million Lost, 10 Million Gained
44
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
During the recession, we lost 8 million jobs. We have gained 10 million back in 6 years since the start of the recession in 2008.
However, because our population is growing, we need to add about 1 million jobs to stay even. So we should have gained an
additional 6 million jobs during this period so there is still job recovery needed. In addition, some of the new jobs are not equivalent to
the jobs that were lost-there are more jobs in the service industry and fewer professional jobs.
12400
13400
13200
13000
12800
12600
13800
13600
14000
JobsinThousands
Source: National Association of Realtors 11/14
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55
Employment Rate
Source: National Association of Realtors 11/14
The Employment Rate is the number of people working. It is a better indicator of the economy than the Unemployment Rate
which has to do with the number of people actually looking for a job. The Unemployment Rate does not include unemployed
people who have quit looking for jobs. The Employment Rate is significantly down since before the 2008 Recession.
6. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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66
Employment by State
Source: National Association of Realtors 11/14
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77
Household Formation
There has been a decrease of 1 million households since 2007.
Number of Households
Source: National Association of Realtors 11/14
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88
Homeownership Rate
Lowest in 30+ years!.
US Homeownership Rate
Source: National Association of Realtors 11/14
9. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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99
Rentals Have Had Huge Increases
Number of Rental Units
Source: National Association of Realtors 11/14
There has been an increase in rental households since 2004. Once these people start buying houses,
the real estate market will greatly improve..
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$600
$640
$680
$720
$760
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Median Asking Rent
U.S. Census
Source: Keeping Current Matters May 15
Rents have continued to rise making Home Ownership much more affordable.
11. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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1111
US Oil Prices
The recent drop in oil prices is a huge boom for the economy as it makes the cost of goods and services
cheaper and gives households more discretionary income.
Source: National Association of Realtors 11/14
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National
Number of Sales
1212
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NAR 4/2015
6.1%
1.6%
3.6%
6.4%
13%
U.S. Northeast South West Midwest
Existing Home Sales By Region
Source: Keeping Current Matters 6/15
14. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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-10.1%
9%
21.2%
19.1%
18%
13%
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+
% -10.1% 9.0% 21.2% 19.1% 18.0% 13.0%
by Price Range
NAR 5/2015
Change in Sales By Price Range
Source: Keeping Current Matters 6/15
15. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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33 39
35 45
39
45
39
49
2014 2015
Jan Feb March April
281 281
282 295
355 403
422
425
2014 2015
Freddie Mac
EXISTING
NEW
Existing and New Home Sales in 2015
Source: Keeping Current Matters 6/15
Both Existing and New Home Sales
have risen dramatically in 2015.
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NAR 1/2015
Home Sales By Year
Source: NAR 2/15
National Home Sales By Year
Although sales have been rising, they are considerable below the levels in 2002-2005
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New Single-Family Home Sales Projections
National Association of Homebuilders
704K
977K
2015 2016
9% gain over 2014 39% gain over 2015
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/15
18. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk
532K
577K
November 2013-April 2014 November 2014-April 2015
Number of primary owner-
occupied, first-time
buyer
purchase mortgages
8.5% increase
First Time Homebuyers
Source: Keeping Current Matters 6/15
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Jan
2012
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2013
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2014
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2015
Feb Mar Apr
35%
10%
15%
NAR 5/2015
January 2012 - Today
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
Source: Keeping Current Matters 6/15
20. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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Foreclosures by State
as a percentage of all homes with a mortgage
Source: Keeping Current Matters 8/14
21. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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2121
Single Family Housing Starts
Housing Starts
200
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
1600
HousingStartsinThousands
Source: National Association of Realtors 11/14
New Construction is still significantly down. The
Construction industry creates many jobs. This is an
area that is expected to improve in 2015.
22. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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2222
Multi Family Housing
Multi-Family Housing Starts
HousingStartsinThousands
Source: National Association of Realtors 11/14
There has been improvement in multi-family construction.
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Inventory of Homes
2323
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The Impact of Monthly Housing
Inventory on Home Prices
LESS THAN
6 MONTHS
BETWEEN
6 MONTHS
GREATER THAN
7 MONTHS
SELLERS
MARKET
Homes prices
will appreciate
NEUTRAL
MARKET
Homes prices
will only
appreciate with
inflation
BUYERS
MARKET
Homes prices
will depreciate
Source: Keeping Current Matters 7/14
Inventory is the average mount of time it takes to sell a house. A balanced market is an inventory of about 6 months. If inventory is
less than 6 months, A Sellers market occurs with appreciating prices. If inventory is above 7 months, A Buyers market occurs with
depreciating prices. .
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4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
January
2011
January
2012
January
2013
January
2014
January
2015
Months Inventory of
HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 5/2015
2011 - Today
Inventory
Source: Keeping Current Matters 6/15
26. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Mar-13 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '14 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr
Months Inventory of
HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 5/2015
last 2 years
Inventory- Past Two Years
Source: Keeping Current Matters 6/15
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Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist
Months supply (Inventory) is
already low at 4.4 months.
More inventories are needed,
not less. Or else, home prices
could re-accelerate.”
Inventory and Home Prices
Source: Keeping Current Matters 2/15
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Prices
2828
29. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
App/Dep 4.2% 4.5% 3.6% 7.4% 7.1% 1.9% -1.6% -8.9% -7.0% 0.4% -1.8% 1.9% 6.8% 3.0%
Annual Home Price Gains
Wall Street Journal
Source: Keeping Current Matters 8 /14
This graph shows the yearly change in prices. There was increased activity and prices in 2010 due to a
Homeowners tax credit. We did not see this increase in the Richmond Market.
30. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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3030
Median Home Price
realtor.org 5/2014
*projected
Source: Keeping Current Matters 6/14
Nationwide, prices have risen for three straight years.
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8.7%
11.3%
4.8%
6.0%
5.4%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Core Logic
Percentage Change in U.S.
HOME PRICE APPRECIATION
December-to-December
PROJECTED
Case Schiller Prices
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/15
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4.0
4.4
5.0
6.0
Freddie Mac Home Price Expectation
Survey
ULI Core Logic
2015 PROJECTED
Home Percentage Appreciation
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/15
33. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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PROJECTED Mean Percentage Appreciation
Home Price Expectation Survey 2015 2Q
Source: Keeping Current Matters 6/15
This graph is a summary of price predictions by a panel of 100 US housing experts.
34. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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FHFA
Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Price
by State
Source: Keeping Current Matters 6/15
35. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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Prices Back to 2005 1Q Prices
Case Shiller 8/2014
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Nationwide, prices are at 1Q 2005 prices..
Source: Keeping Current Matters 9/14
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Source: CoreLogic
9%
Price & Time Since The Peak
37. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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The Interest Rate
3737
38. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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4.5%
3.7%
4.0%
4.2%
3.7%
4.9%
2011 2012 2013 2014 April 2015 2016
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rates
Freddie Mac
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/15
39. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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A Look Back at Mortgage Rates
Record Date
Average 30 year fixed
rate mortgage
Approximate Payment on
a $200K Mortgage*
All-Time
LOW
11/21/12 3.31% $877
All Time
HIGH
10/9/81 18.63% $3,177
*Monthly mortgage payments are principal and interest only,
based on a $200,000 fully amortizing mortgage.
Freddie Mac
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/15
40. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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Quarter
Fannie
Mae
Freddie
Mac
MBA NAR
Average
of all four
2015 3Q 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.0 4%
2015 4Q 3.9 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.2%
2016 1Q 4.0 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.4%
2016 2Q 4.0 4.7 4.8 5.0 4.6%
Mortgage Rate Projections
4/2015
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/15
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6.00 $ 1,199 $ 1,169 $ 1,139 $ 1,109 $ 1,079
5.75 $ 1,167 $ 1,138 $ 1,109 $ 1,080 $ 1,050
5.50 $ 1,136 $ 1,107 $ 1,079 $ 1,050 $ 1,022
5.25 $ 1,104 $ 1,077 $ 1,049 $ 1,022 $ 994
5.00 $ 1,074 $ 1,047 $ 1,020 $ 993 $ 966
4.75 $ 1,043 $ 1,017 $ 991 $ 965 $ 939
4.50 $ 1,013 $ 988 $ 963 $ 937 $ 912
$ 200,000 $ 195,000 $ 190,000 $ 185,000 $ 180,000
-2.5% -5% -7.5% -10%
Buyer’s Purchasing PowerRATE
Principal and Interest Payments
rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
The projected increase in the interest rate will cause
the cost of a house to grow. A buyer who can afford
an $200,000 house today will only be able to afford a
$180,000 house if the interest rate rises one percent.Source: Keeping Current Matters 8/14
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42
All-Cash Buyers Have Stayed High …
even when mortgages are cheap
42
(Cash share as % of total home sales) Source: National Association of Realtors
Even though the interest rate is historically low, the number of cash buyers has stayed well above the historical average.
43. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.comQ: When do most listings
come on the market?
A: The 2nd Quarter of each Year
Source: Keeping Current Matters 2/15 and NAR
44. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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Greater Richmond
Housing Market
4444
Note: All Greater Richmond graphs include the city of
Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield,
Goochland and Powhatan. All data is taken from the Central
Virginia Regional Multiple List Service (CVRMLS)
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Market Indicator #1:
Sales are Up!!!
4545
46. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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12737
15262 15533
16450
15074
12644
9482
9069
8574
9051
10177
10545
11400
4992
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (Thru
6/12)
NoofClosedSales
Year
Greater Richmond Single Family Sales by Year
Number of Single Family House Sales by Year
4646
The number of single sales dropped every year from 2005 to 2010. The number of sales in 2010 was approximately half
of the number of sales in 2005. After 5 straight years of declining sales, the number of sales in 2011 was 5.5% higher than
2010 and 2012 sales were 12.5 % higher than 2011 sales. Between 2010 and 2013, sales increased 23%. And Sales in
2014 were 8% higher than 2013!!
Source: CVRMLS data 6/12/15
47. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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Greater Richmond Single Family Sales
2015 sales have started out higher than 2014. 2015 sales are considerable higher than the first half of
2010 when we had a homebuyers tax credit.
Source: CVRMLS data
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
MonthlySales
Month
Greater Richmond Single Family Sales by Month and Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
48. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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4848
The first quarter of 2015 was up
significantly from the first
quarter of 2014.
Greater Richmond First and Second
Quarter Single Family Sales
2014 second quarter sales were higher than
2010 second quarter sales when there was a
Federal Homebuyers tax credit.
Source: CVRMLS data
4567
3919
2910
2533
3013
2657
3135
3390 3407
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Greater Richmond Single Family Second
Quarter Sales
3161
2892
2088
1487
1612
1801
1924
2057 2047
2360
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Greater Richmond Single Family Sales in
First Quarter
49. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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Greater Richmond Single Family Third
and Fourth Quarter Sales
4949
Sales in the third quarter of 2014
were slightly lower than 2013
sales but are 60% higher than
2010 third quarter sales.
Sales in the fourth quarter of
2014 were higher than the past
seven years and 8% higher than
2012 fourth quarter sales.
Source: CVRMLS data
3222
2362
1707
2357
1847
2134
2347
2547 2672
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Greater Richmond Single Family Fourth
Quarter Sales
4111
3421
2526 2692
1999
2508
2793
3304 3274
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ClosedSales
Year
Greater Richmond Single Family Third
Quarter Sales
50. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond
5050
In the condominium/townhouse market, after 4 years of dropping sales, sales have increased
for three years and 2014 sales were just under 2013 sales.
Source: CVRMLS data 6/12/15
914
1147
1383
1761
2035
1757
1382
1154 1093
1201
1420
1623 1587
709
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(thru
6/12)
Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Sales by Year
51. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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Condominium Sales:
First and Second Quarters
5151
Condominium sales in the first
quarter of 2015 were higher
than the past 7 years.
Condominium sales in the second
quarter of 2014 were higher than the
past 6 years including 2010 when there
was a Federal homebuyers tax credit.
Source: CVRMLS data
601
529
420
324
431
344
402
464 478
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Greater Richmond Townhouse/Condominium
Sales for Second Quarter
428
376
310
190 189
242
275
298
280
316
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Greater Richmond First Quarter Condominium
Sales
52. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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5252
Source: CVRMLS data
Third quarter sales in 2014 were slightly
lower than 2013 third quarter sales.. Third
quarter sales in 2013 were 103% higher
than third quarter sales in 2010.
Sales in the fourth quarter of 2014 were
23 less than the fourth quarter of 2013
and 65% more sales than the fourth
quarter of 2010. Note that there was a
Homebuyers tax credit in the later part of
2009
Condominium Sales – Third and Fourth Quarters
578
499
355 345
219
325
393
466 457
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Greater Richmond Third Quarter
Condominium/Townhouse Sales
424
339
233
288
225
287
338
395 372
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
NoofClosedSales
Year
Fourth Quarter Greater Richmond
Condominium Sales
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Year Over Year Change in Number of Sales
5353
Source: CVRMLS 5/15/15
There has been a
decline in the number
of sales at the lower
price points for single
family houses. This is
thought to be due to
the decline of
Distressed Sales. Note
that in both Single
Family and
Townhouse.Condo
sales, there are
increases in the
number of sales at all
other price points.
Greater Richmond Year Over Year Single Family
Sales By Price Range
5/13-4/13 5/14-4/15 Change
0-$249,000 6970 6854 -1.66%
$250,000-$499,000 3614 3946 9.19%
$500,000-$749,000 627 662 5.58%
$750,000-$999,999 125 164 31.20%
$1,000,000+ 57 76 33.33%
Greater Richmond Year Over Year
Condo/Townhouse Sales By Price Range
5/13-4/14 5/14-4/15 Change
0-249,000 1073 1145 6.71%
$250,000-$499,000 442 455 2.94%
$500,000+ 71 79 11.27%
54. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
4385
4694
3917
2913
2095
1624 1428 1380 1537
2022 1981
757
1062
1183
1419
1079
655
675 573
591
741 606
NoofClosings(Jan-Jun)
Year
New Home Closings in Richmond Area Market
Condo/Townhouse
Single Family
2437
2054
New Home Price 7%
New Home Sales
5454
Source: HBAR
No of Closings 6%
No of Permits 8%
55. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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The Odds of Selling in Greater Richmond in 2014
5555
66.33%
76.86%
72.81%
52.23%
56.78%
60.81%
67.13%
61.85%
57.20%
68.03%
60.04%
46.64%
60.66%
61.14%
65.38%
64.23%
63.75%
51.85%
62.76%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
TheOddsofSellingYourHouse
Area
The Odds of Selling Your Single Family House in 2014
Source: CVRMLS 3/2/15
The odds of selling your house are determined by all properties that were listed during 2014 and
all properties that were sold in 2014. The odds of selling a condo in 2014 was 55.43%
56. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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Market Indicator #2:
Inventory is Low!!!
5656
57. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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Inventory of Single Family Houses
by Month in Greater Richmond
5757
The supply (inventory) of houses is determined by the number of active listings divided by the monthly sales rate for the
past year. After 2+ years of inventory between 8 and 10 months, inventory began to drop in the later months of 2011 and
has continued to drop in 2012 and 2013. Inventory now is less than half of what it was three years ago. 2013, 2014 and
2015 have had very similar inventory levels.
Source: CVRMLS data
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
MonthsofInventory
Month
Inventory of Greater Richmond Single Family Houses
2010
2012
2014
2015
58. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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3.0 3.2
4.2
4.8
6.5 6.7
3.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Richmond Henrico Chesterfield Hanover Goochland Powhatan All Richmond
MonthsofInventory
Area
Greater Richmond Single Family Inventory By Area
Single Family Inventory by Area
5858
Source: CVRMLS data 5/15/15
The inventory of single family homes in the city of Richmond, Henrico, and Chesterfield are indicative of a Seller’s
market. We have a shortage of inventory in all areas. The red line represents a normal market.
59. Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
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5959
Townhouse/Condominium Inventory by Month
The inventory of townhouses and condominiums started dropping in the second half of 2011 and continued to drop
through 2013. 2014 inventory was very close to 2013 inventory. Inventory has stayed low for the past three years.
Source: CVRMLS data
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Inventory of Townhouse/Condominiums
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
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Single Family Inventory by Price Range
Condominium Inventory By Price
Range
Price Range Inventory
0-249,000 3.6
$250,000-
$499,000
3.2
$500,000+ 4.4
Single Family Inventory by Price
Range
Price Range Inventory
0-$249,000 2.7
$250,000-$499,000 3.6
$500,000-$749,000 6.0
$750,000-$999,999 7.5
$1,000,000+ 9.7
6060
Source: CVRMLS data 3/2/15
Inventory is low at all price points but increases at the higher price points.
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Market Indicator #3:
Prices are rising!!!
6161
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6262
The average sales price fluctuates monthly and has a yearly cycle. The average price can be influenced by a few very
large sales. But there is clearly an upward trend since 2012.
Single Family Average Sales Price
Source: CVRMLS data 6/12/15$150,000
$170,000
$190,000
$210,000
$230,000
$250,000
$270,000
$290,000
$310,000
$330,000
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Greater Richmond Single Family Average Sales Price
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Single Family Price Per Square Foot
6363
Price per square foot is a better indication of what is really happening. Note that the trend is definitely upward since 2012.
There are always seasonal variations with lower prices during the winter months.
Source: CVRMLS data 6/12/15
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
$130.00
$140.00
$150.00
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Greater Richmond Single Family Average Price Per Square Foot
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$92.37
$99.65
$107.60
$123.38
$135.82
$139.64
$132.43
$117.82
$112.24
$104.98
$106.16
$113.02
$115.19
$118.53
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
$130.00
$140.00
$150.00
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(Thru
6/12)
Greater Richmond Single Family Price by Year
Single Family Price by Year
6464
Greater Richmond 2014 prices are 11.6% higher than 2011 prices and 3.6% higher than 2013 prices. With a 25%
decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011, prices are still between 2004 and 2005 levels as indicated in the red line on
this graph. 2015 prices are 15%% below 2007 prices.
Source: CVRMLS data
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Single Family Year over Year Price Change
6565
Year over year price change shows that after 4 years of declines, prices started to increase in 2012 and have continued to
increase in 2013 and 2014.. In this graph, the 7.9% increase in 2003 is the increase in prices between 2002 and 2003 etc.
In 2014, prices were up 3.7%.
Source: CVRMLS data 6/1215
7.9% 8.0%
14.7%
10.1%
2.8%
-5.2%
-11.0%
-4.7%
-6.5%
1.1%
6.5%
1.9%
2.9%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(Thru
6/12)
Greater Richmond Single Family Percent Change
in Price Per Sq Ft Year to Year
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Prices for Condominiums
6666
Condominiums and townhouse are showing a similar trend as single family homes with prices trending up for the past
three years.
Source: CVRMLS data 6/12/15
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
$130.00
$140.00
$150.00
$160.00
$170.00
$180.00
Jan-06
Jun-06
Nov-06
Apr-07
Sep-07
Feb-08
Jul-08
Dec-08
May-09
Oct-09
Mar-10
Aug-10
Jan-11
Jun-11
Nov-11
Apr-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Jul-13
Dec-13
May-14
Oct-14
Mar-15
PricePerSqFtforClosedSales
Month
Price Per Square Foot for Condominium/Townhouse Sales
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$91
$100
$113
$133
$149
$154 $153
$136
$132
$119 $121
$130
$139
$143
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
$130.00
$140.00
$150.00
$160.00
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(thru
6/12)
PricePerSquareFoot
Year
Condominium/Townhouse Prices
Condominium/Townhouse Prices
6767
Condominium prices in 2014 were 6.2% higher than 2013 and 15.8% higher than 2011 prices. There was a 23%
decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011. Current prices are above 2005 prices as shown in the red line..
Source: CVRMLS data 6/12/15
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Richmond Real Estate Areas
6868
The Richmond Association of
Realtors (RAR) uses Real estate areas
as shown in the graph. The following
analysis covers areas 10, 20, 22, 24,
30, 32, 34, 40, 42, 44, 50, 52, 54, 60,
62, 64 and 66 shown on the map.
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Active Single Family Listings By Area
6969
The number of active listings by area as shown. Inventory varies by area with area 54 having the highest number of
homes for sale and Area 20 having the lowest.
Source: CVRMLS data 5/15/15
155
48
283
154
94 89
275 282
138
97
227
103
352
505
143
441
211
189
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66
NoofActiveListings
Area
Single Family Active Listings By Area (5/16/15)
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$252,852
$421,089
$344,851
$423,878
$158,574
$151,989
$333,790
$301,858
$152,009
$114,878
$236,542
$65,712
$184,240
$225,914
$205,908
$269,643
$344,610
$277,549
$254,751
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
10
20
22
24
30
32
34
36
40
42
44
50
52
54
60
62
64
66
AllRichmond
AverageSalesPrice
Area
Average Sales Price By Area (5/14-4/15)
Single Family Greater Richmond
Sales Price by Area
7070
Average sales price varies considerably by area with area 20 having the highest and area 50 having the
lowest. The average single family house sale in greater Richmond for 2014 through June 10th is $248,641
shown by the red line.
Source: CVRMLS data 5/16/15
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Greater Richmond Single Family Price per
Square Foot 3/14-2/15)
7171
Source: CVRMLS data 5/16/15
$136.54
$188.78
$140.06
$134.03
$87.90
$96.33
$131.89
$122.43
$87.44
$72.96
$112.29
$48.39
$90.90
$101.91
$107.18
$110.35
$118.26
$121.11
$116.20
$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
$140.00
$160.00
$180.00
$200.00
PriceperSquareFoot
Area
Price per Square Foot By Area (5/14-4/15)
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2.9
1.7
3.1
6.5
3.1
2.4
3.5
5.2
3.6
2.7
4.4
5.5
4.0
4.6
2.8
3.7
4.8
6.7
3.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
MonthsofInventory
Area
Greater Richmond Single Family Inventory by Area
Inventory of Single Family Houses
7272
As shown above, the supply of houses varies greatly in Greater Richmond. Generally, the areas that are further out have the largest supply of
houses while those that are closer in have lower inventories of houses. Goochland (Area 24) and Powhatan (Area 66) have the higher
supplies of houses. Area 50 had a lot of foreclosures and it still has a higher inventory. The average inventory in Greater Richmond is
3.9months.
Source: CVRMLS data 5/16/15
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Top 10 Greater Richmond 2014 Single
Family Sales
Address Area Sales Price Sq Ft
Price/
Square/
Foot
1 5901 River Rd 22 $3,622,506 9023 $401.47
2 12671 River Rd 22 $3,450,000 10113 $341.15
3 1000 Huguenot Trail 66 $3,045,000 6242 $487.82
4 12001 N Enon Church Rd 52 $2,000,000 9971 $200.58
5 210 Virginia Ave 20 $1,950,000 5946 $327.95
6 745 River Rd West 24 $1,900,000 6225 $305.22
7 455 Rivergate Dr 24 $1,895,000 6900 $274.64
8 12830 River Rd 54 $1,870,000 6000 $311.67
9 745 River Rd 24 $1,845,000 6300 $292.86
10 1180 Yellow Gate Ln 24 $1,765,975 7898 $223.60
7373
Source: CVRMLS 1/15/15
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Top Condominium/Townhouse Sales in 2014
Address Area Subdivision Sale Price
Square
Ft
Price/Sq/
ft
1 1 Bankside Mews 40 Rocketts Landing $1,324,173 4260 $310.84
2 5225 Monument Ave 22 Monument Square $1,226,548 3378 $363.10
3 5217 Monument Ave 22 Monument Square $1,216,190 3378 $360.03
4 5 Bankside Mews 40 Rocketts Landing $1,096,015 4415 $248.25
5 3 Bankside Mews 40 Rocketts Landing $1,024,711 4120 $248.72
6 9505 Tatton Park 22 Grayson Hill $816,914 3200 $255.29
7 707 Southwark Ln 22 Grayson Hill $722,142 3700 $195.17
8 1119 Marney Ct 22 Grayson Hill $715,424 3500 $204.41
9 1121 Marney Ct 22 Grayson Hill $689,096 3500 $196.88
10 701 Southwark Ln 22 Grayson Hill $685,754 3700 $185.34
7474
Top 10 Greater Richmond 2014
Condominium/Townhouse Sales
Source: CVRMLS 1/15/15
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Summary
7575
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NAR Economic Forecast
7676
Source: National Association of Realtors11/14
2013 2014
Likely
2015
Forecast
2016
Forecast
GDP Growth 2.2% 2.2% 2.7% 2.9%
Job Growth +2.3 M +2.5 M +2.5 M +2.6 M
CPI Inflation 1.5% 1.6% 2.7% 3.3%
Consumer
Confidence
73 87 95 98
10-year
Treasury
2.5% 2.6% 3.2% 4.3%
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NAR Housing Forecast
7777
Source: National Association of Realtors 9/14
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2000 vs 2014
7878
Source: National Association of Realtors 9/14
+12%
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Summary
• Sales are up
• Inventory is low
• Prices are rising
• The interest rate is rising
7979
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Questions?
Lacy.Williams@joynerfineproperties.com
Lacy Williams
Joyner Fine Properties
804-864-0316
8080