4. What Can Statistics Do?
Statistics can also be used to spot trends or isolate causes.
Statistics is based upon a solid edifice of mathematical
theorems proven through unassailable laws of logic. In
theory, statistics works every time. We shall discuss the
inherent problems with statistics in due course, because as
many people know, statistics can be misleading.
5. When Was Statistics Developed?
Statistics as we know it and use it was developed beginning around 1893
and continues to be refined to this day. It is a very large subject area
mostly applied in practical ways to data for which there is no theoretical
probability. For example, pharmaceutical firms must test new drugs before
they can be put on the market. Groups of people are given these drugs
and compared to similar groups not taking these drugs. How can we
predict an outcome? We can't, so we measure the outcome and determine
through methods of statistics--based on probability--whether the results
were significant or not.
6. Does Statistics Lie?
Now for an explanation of the stock phrase, "lying with
statistics." The most famous quote in statistics is attributed to
English Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli, who in 1871
declared, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and
statistics." He was clearly referring to the propensity of some
politicians for distorting information by selective distortions of
the data.
7. Does Statistics Lie? (Continued)
One of the most famous statistical distortions in modern days was
the use by Procter & Gamble for years of the marketing line, "Four
out of five dentists recommend Crest." The joke this line begs is,
"Which five dentists did they talk to?" One year two students in the
author's class went to the heart of P & G country in Cincinnati and,
by calling fifty dentists, demonstrated that this claim was
significantly exaggerated, at least in Cincinnati at the time.
8. Statistics Does Not Lie
Here is an important point: statistics does not lie. Aside from
people purposely distorting the information by their
presentation of data, statistics works every time as billed
provided the assumptions underlying the statistical theorems
are followed. When it fails it is usually because the sample of
data collected is not sufficiently random, but biased in some
manner.
10. Homework
Prepare a two-page MLA/APA paper stating the
following:
Explain what you got out of this video
What have you learned specifically from the video? Whether
about the content, the tool, statistics, or the individual
Do you feel like you understand Statistics now?
11. Homework (Continued)
Come back to class with 5 talking points
Write the definition of the three Ms: Mean, Median, Mode
Write the definition for: “N”, Significance and P-Value
Write the definition for Correlation and for R-Value
Bring an example for two of the definitions that you
described above.
12. Websites of Interest (click for link)
Gapminder
Gapminder fights devastating
misconceptions about global
development.
FiveThirtyEight
538 focuses on opinion poll analysis,
politics, economics, and sports
blogging.
Freakonomics Radio
Freakonomics Radio is an American
public radio program which discusses
socioeconomic issues for a general
audience. The show is a spin-off of
the 2005 book Freakonomics.