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E1 Scenario Planning

Slides "E1: Scenario Planning" for a one-day workshop on "Preparing for the Future: Technological Challenges and Beyond" by Brian Kelly and Tony Hirst at the ILI 2015 conference. Held on Monday 19 October 2015

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E1 Scenario Planning

  1. 1. Preparing for the Future: Technological Challenges and Beyond E1: Scenario Planning Brian Kelly Independent researcher/consultant at UK Web Focus Ltd. Tony Hirst Senior lecturer at The Open University Contact Details Brian Kelly Tony Hirst Email: Email: Twitter: @briankelly Twitter: @psychemedia Blog: Blog: Slides and further information available at UK Web Focus Event hashtag: #ili2015fut
  2. 2. E: Scenario Planning Scenario Planning Scenario planning is: • A strategic planning method that some organisations use to make flexible long-term plans. • An adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence. Processes: • Step 1 - decide assumptions/drivers for change • Step 2 - bring drivers together into a viable framework • Step 3 - produce initial mini-scenarios • Step 4 - reduce to two or three scenarios • Step 5 - write the scenarios • Step 6 - identify issues arising 2 From wiki/Scenario_planning
  3. 3. E: Scenario Planning Radical Scenarios Two day planning meeting for Intute (formerly RDN (Resource Discovery Network) in 2007 External facilitator set group exercise: “The Martians have landed and taken away Intute’s servers. You decide to launch a rescue mission. What aspects of your service are your top priority?” Suggestions: • The catalogue records • The management tools • The personalisation features • They can have the technology: the most important aspect is our community of cataloguers! 3 Note the Martians (in the form of money men) did arrive and removed the Intute servers, offices and staff!)
  4. 4. E: Scenario Planning Examples of Scenarios Context: effect of changes in Europe to library sector 4 Possible Scenarios UK leaves EU Scottish independence Greater power for European Court Withdrawal from European Court -ve: Move towards right; less public funding; more links with US +ve: Rediscovery of British culture Differential charging for students • Greater emphasis on privacy • Difficulties for US IT companies • Development of EU alternatives • Data hosting in EU countries • Weaker human rights, privacy & data protection legislation • Move towards US-model
  5. 5. E: Scenario Planning Need for Scenarios Context from NMC Horizon report – two difficult challenges: 5
  6. 6. E: Scenario Planning Scenario Design In small groups: • Choose a context:  Competition from alternative sources of discovery  Significantly changed roles for librarians  Your own choice • Provide a set of bullet points:  Highlighting possible scenarios  (Possible implications of scenarios)  (Ways of spotting signals of scenarios becoming true) 6 GroupExercise
  7. 7. E: Scenario Planning Scenarios From ILI 2013 Workshop • Possible scenarios 7 Commercialisation Devolved ownership Everyone’s a librarian The niche librarian
  8. 8. E: Scenario Planning Scenario 1: Commercialisation By 2016: • Libraries had responded by financial pressures by making significant use of commercial services • Companies are now looking to respond to pressure from shareholders to increase profits 8 Scenario 2: Devolution By 2016: • Facebook, Amazon, … had alienated users due to abuse of privacy, failure to pay taxes, … • There was a move towards small-scale services which were owned/managed by trusted organisations
  9. 9. E: Scenario Planning Scenario 3: Everyone’s a Librarian By 2016: • The majority are now connected using social networks and are comfortable in using the services • Skills which previously librarians possessed (cataloging resources, resource discovery, …) are now held by many • The role of the dedicated generalist librarian is questioned 9 Scenario 4: The Niche Librarian By 2016: • We had seen a decline in student numbers in library schools and the demise of their professional organisation following significant government cuts • The professional body asked its few remaining members for thoughts on the future of the profession
  10. 10. E: Scenario Planning Conclusions 10 • People typically don’t envisage the demise of their organisation or key services • But organisations and services do fold (Intute, UKOLN, Netskills, AHDS, …) • Scenario planning can provide a non- threatening ways of exploring implications