Presentation from a Cary Institute of Ecosystems Studies public forum on climate change by Susan Riha, Director, NYS Water Resources Institute, Cornell University.
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Managing Water Resources as Climate Changes
1. Managing Water Resources as Climate
Changes:
Adapting to Uncertainty
Susan Riha
Professor, Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Science
Director, New York State Water Resources Institute
October 26, 2011
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10. Strategies for Managing Risk
1. Share/transfer
– Share or balance climate risks with others through tools
such as insurance and hedge products (derivatives, bonds)
2. Reduce/mitigate
– Reduce likelihood or severity of climate risk (via
infrastructure, operations, stockpiling, disaster response)
3. Avoid (eliminate, not initiate)
– Some climate risks can be avoided
4. Retain
– Can be used in the case of very small or very large risks
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12. Non “optimal” Approaches
for Managing Risk
• Adaptive management: Originally conceived as a way
to make decisions in the face of uncertainty through an
iterative process which allows learning over time.
• Precautionary principle: Scientific uncertainty should
not preclude cost-effective measures to prevent or
mitigate harm.
• No-regrets options: There are other benefits of taking
actions that address climate risks.
• Scenario planning/Robust decision making:
Developing management strategies that best adapt to
a wide range of plausible future conditions.
13. Role of Local Governments
• Much of our water resource infrastructure
already designed to reduce climate risks.
• Asset management important.
– Grey water resource infrastructure
(dams, POTWs, water treatment systems, private
wells, septic systems) is expensive and ages.
– Opportunities for
consolidation, downsizing, elimination, replacement
with green infrastructure
– Could simultaneously make us less vulnerable to
climate variability
Editor's Notes
Climate risk is the effect of climate uncertainty on objectives
http://ny.water.usgs.gov/projects/news/currentnewsrelease.pdfThis graph shows the annual peak discharges on the East Branch of the Delaware. During the 73 years of record, the 10 year peak discharge (or greater) occurred 5 to 6 times, the 50 year peak discharge (or greater) twice and the 100 peak discharge (or greater) once. If in the next decade we get another 50 year or 100 year peak discharge, the probability distributions will be changed.
Extratropical storms in late winter early spring causing peak flows
So this is the likelhood, based on 75 years of data, that a tropical cyclone such as Irene or Lee will be the cause of the peak annual discharge.
If we accept that adapting to climate change is all about managing climate risks, then we can examine different strategies for managing riskThere are other approaches to categorizing risk management (such as proactive and reactive), but these categories seem useful.All approaches can be taken by individuals, businesses and governments.Give example of weather derivatives offered by CME in first category. Scientists/engineers tend to focus on second category
Concept of bounded rationality supports these appraochesBounded RationalityRationality in decision making is limited byInformation availableCognitive limitations Finite time for decision makingSo rather than arriving at optimal solutions, decision makers arrive at satisfactory ones