For HIS 391

1. Graphing Charts, and
Using Online Cambridge
Historical Statistics of the
U.S. Graphing Function
Thomas Jackson
HIS 391 Skills and Methods
Spring 2016

2. THE NEXT 12 SLIDES ARE From Dr. Steven
Ruggles, University of Minnesota:
“The Basics …
Graphical Displays Should:”
• induce the viewer to think about the
substance rather than about the
methodology, design, the technology of the
graphic production, or something else
• avoid distorting what the data have to say
• present many numbers in a small space
Continued...

3. The Basics …
Graphical Displays Should: (2)
• make large data sets coherent
• encourage the eye to compare different pieces of
data
• serve a clear purpose
• be closely integrated with the statistical and
verbal descriptions of a data set.

4. Lie Factor
• Lie Factor = size of effect shown in graphic
size of effect in data
• Greater than 1.05% or less than .95% indicates
substantial distortion, far beyond minor
inaccuracies in plotting.

5. NYT: Fuel economy “graph”
Note to students: this graph hugely distorts
improvement in fuel standards, which did rise by less
than 10 mpg over a decade, an improvement of 50%,
but way overstated in the plotting . . . TJ

6. Maps: just bad graphs

7. Chart-junk.
What is it?
Anything that
doesn’t NEED to
be included in
the chart.

8. • Line Graph – BEST FOR TRENDS! tj
• x-axis requires quantitative variable
• Variables have contiguous values
• familiar/conventional ordering among ordinals
• Bar Graph
• comparison of relative point values
• Scatter Plot
• convey overall impression of relationship between two
variables
• Pie Chart
• Emphasizing differences in proportion among a few
numbers

9. Bar charts
• Best for comparing different things during the same
time period
• Neither the bars nor the axis should be interrupted
• Axis should usually include zero (some exceptions)
• Avoid 3-D effects, can be misleading

10. Line graphs
• Best for showing change over time
• Can indicate trends
• Use a different color and symbol for each line
• Avoid too many lines
• When to use log scale

11. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
Census year
Percentwithchildren
White
Black
Labeling: Title
Height/width
should be
about 3:4
(same as old-
fashioned TV
Labeling:
lines

12. Percent of the Labor Force Employed in Agriculture,
United States, 1800-2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Percent

13. Figure 1: Percent of elders in intergenerational families
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Percent
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Ecuador
Kenya
Mexico
Philippines
Romania
Rwanda
Vietnam
South Africa
Uganda
Venezuela
Too many lines!

14. Percent Female; Scientists and Engineers
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005
Year
PercentFemale
Engineers
Scientists
IPUMS Graph from “A Century of Women in Science and Engineering,”
History Day project by Abby Norling- Ruggles, age 12

15. Prof. Tom Jackson . .. How to Lie and
Spin with Numbers—Is Post-Cold War
Defense Spending Out of Control?
Change the relevant comparison or denominator.
Manipulate the aspect ratio of a graph.
Ignore context: (as with federal spending which
automatically increases with an aging population
drawing upon Social Security)

16. “America’s staggering defense budget,” in
chartshttps://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013By Brad Plumer January 7,
2013/01/07/everything-chuck-hagel-needs-to-know-about-the-defense-budget-in-charts/ TJ’s added text
boxes in RED
Wow,
Korea
and
the H
Bomb--
TJ
In the
quagmire
of
Vietnam
Reagan’s
nuclear
build up
and 600
ship Navy
Clinton’s
post-Cold
War luck and
budget
balancing

18. AND NOW A CONSERVATIVE ASSESSMENT: “The Myth That America
Spends Too Much on Defense”
by Kyle Becker “defense spending has plummeted as a percentage of
GDP, as the graph below illustrates.” [emphasis added]
https://rogueoperator.wordpress.com/2012/01/06/the-myth-
that-america-spends-too-much-on-defense/
• NB: GDP=Gross Domestic Product

19. Different percentage: total federal spending

20. This one is better . . . From the Heritage Foundation, showing BOTH absolute
spending and relative GDP Percentages.

21. And now . . . The
Assignment!!
From the vast statistical treasure trove of the Cambridge University
Press Online Historical Statistics of the United States, (see course
guide HIS 391 Case Studies), SELECT a table to plot. Use the “graph”
function to show and explain an important trend.
1. Shoot for a major trend like the graph we considered in ATF of
migration to California from 1910 to 1950— explore that time
frame (or one that intrigues you).
2. There is a master list of the various tables in ms Word files.
BOLDED tables I see have potential for you.
3. Limit the years and the “Series” items, using the graph function
and “specific rows.”
4. Format the graph using this as a guide, write 2 pages about the
significance and possible causes of the trend, and present in
class on next Wednesday
HERE’S WHAT YOU
CLICK!!---

22. STUDENTS! You want to pick something that will reveal an important trend over time
that bears somewhat on the changes of the Interwar Period or mid-century America.
The big series are listed on the left. I have selected “Labor” under “Work and Welfare”

23. Hey, this
one looks
good!

24. You don’t
see ALL the
industries,
so you have
to “Jump”
to see the
rest.

27. Results with NONE unchecked! And
WIDE aspect ratio. Not too revealing!

28. Even with a change in the aspect ratio (though better on whole Labor Force)
Leaving in “Total” has the
effect of flattening
everything else, making it
seem like changes in most
industries were minor.

29. De-Select
Total and
some small
categories
and trends
(but let’s keep
Government)


30. Remember the rule about aspect ratios in a graph.
Don’t overdramatize or underdramatize trends. Pull
down on the little square to change the picture to
4:3 in Power Point:

31. With adjusted aspect ratio (just drag
the squares down) this shows the
dramatic rise in government
employment in World War II (and the
early New Deal) but other trends are
still a bit flattened.

32. Let’s take out Government and see
trends in the private economy! Wow,
look at manufacturing, but remember,
40%+ of that is government war
contracts: see the tanks, ships,
bombers, not yet electric vacuum
cleaners, etc. I also adjusted the
contrast and brightness so you could
see all the lines (just double click on
the picture in Power Point).

33. Or go under the “Format” menu to
see picture corrections and Artistic
Effects!

34. This effect is called “Photocopy”
I like it.

35. Here is
“dayglow”

36. Once you have your graph, you can now write a
narrative of the most important changes of the Great
Depression and World War II, with a glimpse at the
shape of the Post 1945- world!

37. Why not look at consumption? Way
too many variables: what will be most
revealing???
IMPORTANT: You can limit the
years by entering “specific row
#s”! That way I avoided
compression from new car sales
after 1945!
HERE!!

39. This one took about an hour to figure out how to format. I was
interested in a variety of personal expenditures by consumers from
the beginning of the Great Depression to the end of WWII. What did
Americans cut back on? What did they refuse to do without? Why
does domestic service rise so dramatically along with shoes and
tobacco, while doctors remain fairly flat and new autos just
plummet? Too many lines? Maybe just plot new cars, tobacco,
domestic servants, and doctors? If you put “food” in the graph, all
the rest gets compressed down.