La Niña Event is coming. On the west coast of South America we will have a humid summer but no rain. Gastrointestinal diseases will be present more frequently. Drought in the high lands. The reservoirs will lower their water level and agriculture will lower their production. Reporting what might happen is not alarm.

1. NOAA
Update prepared by:
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
14 November 2016
ENSO Alert System Status:
La Niña Advisory
La Niña conditions are present. Equatorial sea surface
temperatures (SST) are below average in the central
and east-central Pacific Ocean. La Niña is slightly
favored to persist (~55% chance) through winter
2016-17(North Hemisphere)

2. Figure 1

3. Figure 2

4. Figure A. Forecast ONI (3.4) using ARIMA (2.0.2) for the quarter SON 2016. ONI data used to
make the forecast range from 1950 DJF quarter to ASO quarter of 2016 (802 data ).
According to the figure, the forecast of ONI is
-0.705 for quarter ASO 2016 with the Code-Date 802 (Prepared by my self)

5. Figure B.- Forecast for El Niño(3,4) November 2016 = -0.337 calculated with data from Jan-2014
(1) until Octuber-2016 (35) (using polynomial equation with Grade 6) (Prepared by my self))

6. Trimestre ONI (NOAA)
Pronóstico de ONI usando ecuación
Polinómica grado 6 con datos de
ene 2014-jul 2016
Pronóstico de ONI usando
análisis ARIMA(2,0,2)(I) con
datos de feb 1950-jul 2016
Trimestre ONI (NOAA)
Pronóstico de ONI usando ecuación
Polinómica grado 6 con datos de
ene 2014-ago 2016
Pronóstico de ONI usando
análisis ARIMA(2,0,2)(I) con
datos de feb 1950-ago 2016
Trimestre ONI
Pronóstico de ONI usando ecuación
Polinómica grado 6 con datos de
ene 2014-sep 2016
Pronóstico de ONI usando
análisis ARIMA(2,0,2)(I) con
datos de feb 1950-sep 2016
ASO -0,7 -0,776 -0,760
Trimestre ONI
Pronóstico de ONI usando ecuación
Polinómica grado 6 con datos de
ene 2014-oct 2016
Pronóstico de ONI usando
análisis ARIMA(2,0,2)(I) con
datos de feb 1950-oct 2016
SON -0,337 -0,705
Trimestre
ONI (NOAA)
Pronóstico de ONI usando ecuación
Polinómica grado 6 con datos de
ene 2014-jun 2016
Pronóstico de ONI usando
análisis ARIMA(2,0,2)(I) con
datos de feb 1950-jun 2016
MJJ 2016 0,1 -0,571 0,245
JAS 2016 -0,6 -0,935 -0,55
JJA 2016 -0,3 -0,882 -0,23
Table A.- This table shows the results of ONI (3.4) monthly reporting NOAA (second column from left to right). The result of ONI reported by the
NOAA for ASO Trimester 2016 was reported the first week of November. Forecasts of polynomial equations and statistical analysis Statgraphics
ARIMA until ASO trimester are presented in the table.
With these forecasts for the ONI index (3.4) ranging from -0.705 (Figure A) to -0.337 (Figure B) where the ARIMA forecasts continue in
their downward trend and polynomial equation has a breaking point of the downward trend from ASO trimester and in line with the
forecast of an upcoming event weak La Niña we must be attentive to reports from NOAA and ENFEN, and be prepared for a weak La
Niña(55 %) at summer 2017 (South Hemisphere)