Three new tools for global change science, epidemiology is just one of the many applications of network theory, pathogen spread through trade

1. Network epidemiology,
landscape pathology & macro-ecology:
three new tools for global change science
Marco Pautasso,
Division of Biology,
Imperial College London,
Silwood Campus, UK
7 May 2008

2. number of passengers per day
from: Hufnagel, Brockmann & Geisel (2004) PNAS

3. Epidemiology is just one of the
many applications of network theory
NATURAL
Network pictures from:
Newman (2003) SIAM Review
food webs
cell
metabolism
neural Food web of Little Rock
networks Lake, Wisconsin, US
ant nests sexual
partnerships
DISEASE
SPREAD
family
innovation networks
Internet flows co-authorship HIV
structure railway urban road nets spread
electrical networks networks network
power grids telephone calls
WWW
computing airport Internet E-mail
committees
grids networks software maps patterns
TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIAL
Modified from: Jeger et al. (2007) New Phytologist

4. Lower epidemic threshold for scale-free networks
SIS Model, 100 Nodes, directed networks, constant n of links
p [i (x, t)] = Σ {p [s] * p [i (y, t-1)] + p [p] * p [i (x, t-1)]}
1.00
p [p]
local
probability of persistence
Epidemic develops
0.75 small-world
random
0.50 scale-free
0.25
Epidemic
does not develop
0.00
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30
probability of transmission p [s]
from: Pautasso & Jeger (2008) Ecological Complexity

5. Sudden Oak Death in California
from Desprez-Loustau et al. (2007) Trends in Ecology & Evolution

6. Pathogen spread through trade
Trace forward/back zipcode
Positive (Phytophthora ramorum) site
Hold released
Source: United States Department of Agriculture, 2004
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine

7. A plant disease-human population correlation?
log number of plants affected by
log1010 numberof plants affected by
5
5
Erwinia amylovora (2002-2007)
Erwinia amylovora (2002-2007)
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
1
0 2
1 3
2 4
3 5
4 6
5
-2
log10 human population density of CH municipality (n km )
log10 human population size of CH municipality (n)
from: Pautasso & Holdenrieder (in prep.), N affected municipalities = 1023 (out of 2762),
data from Eidgenössisches Volkswirtschaftsdepartement, Swiss Confederation

8. Fire blight epidemic development in Switzerland
1995 1999
2003 2007
From: Eidgenössisches Volkswirtschaftsdepartement, Swiss Confederation

9. Fire blight persistence from year to year in
Swiss municipalities (2003-2007)
4 5
n = 160, y = 0.41x + 0.41, r2 = 0.17, p < 0.0001 2
n = 163, y = 0.42x + 1.15, r = 0.16, p < 0.0001
by Erwinia amylovora (2004)
by Erwinia amylovora (2005)
4
log10 n plants affected
log10 n plants affected
3
3
2
2
1
1
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4
log10 n plants affected by Erwinia amylovora (2003) log10 n plants affected by Erwinia amylovora (2004)
4 5
by Erwinia amylovora (2007)
2 2
n = 204, y = 0.45x + 0.46, r = 0.27, p < 0.0001 n = 238, y = 0.26x + 1.39, r = 0.04, p = 0.001
by Erwinia amylovora (2006)
log10 n plants affected
4
log10 n plants affected
3
3
2
2
1
1
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4
log 10 n plants affected by Erw inia am ylovora (2005)
log10 n plants affected by Erwinia amylovora (2006)
from: Pautasso & Holdenrieder (in prep.),
data from Eidgenössisches Volkswirtschaftsdepartement, Swiss Confederation

10. Potential effects of climate change on
the disease triangle
from: Jeger & Pautasso (2008) New Phytologist

11. Species-people correlation: sampling bias?
from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology

12. Vascular plants in US counties with (•) or without (o)
Universities and/or Botanical Gardens
• N = 692, r2 = 0.13, y = 2.15 (SE = 0.08) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001
o N = 2187, r2 = 0.10, y = 2.18 (SE = 0.05) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001
from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology

13. number of passengers per day
from: Hufnagel, Brockmann & Geisel (2004) PNAS

14. Random sample of 100 papers per year
on ‘species richness’ in WOS (1991-2004)
from: Lonsdale et al. (2008) European Journal of Forest Research

15. Acknowledgements
Peter Weisberg,
Univ. of Nevada, Joel Ingrid
Cohen, Kevin Parmentier,
Reno, US Gaston,
Rockefeller Univ. of
Univ., US Univ. of Mike Jeger, Bruxelles,
Sheffield Imperial College, Belgium
Silwood Park
Mike McKinney,
Univ. of
Holger Kreft, Tennessee, US Ottmar Alessandro Chiarucci
Univ. of California, Holdenrieder, Univ. of Siena, Italy
San Diego, US ETHZ, CH

16. References
Jokimäki J, Kaisanlahti-Jokimäki M-L, Suhonen J, Clergeau P, Pautasso M & Fernández-Juricic E (2011) Merging wildlife community ecology and animal behavioral ecology
for a better urban landscape planning. Landscape & Urban Planning 100: 383-385
Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Finley A, Dorigatti I, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Harwood T, Jeger MJ, Xu XM, Holdenrieder O & Pautasso M (2011) Networks in plant epidemiology: from
genes to landscapes, countries and continents. Phytopathology 101: 392-403
Pautasso M, Böhning-Gaese K, Clergeau P, Cueto VR, Dinetti M, Fernandez-Juricic E, Kaisanlahti-Jokimäki ML, Jokimäki J, McKinney ML, Sodhi NS, Storch D, Tomialojc L,
Weisberg PJ, Woinarski J, Fuller RA & Cantarello E (2011) Global macroecology of bird assemblages in urbanized and semi-natural ecosystems. Global Ecology &
Biogeography 20: 426-436
Barbosa AM, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) Is the human population a large-scale indicator of the species richness of ground beetles? Anim Cons 13: 432-441
Barbosa AM, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) Positive regional species–people correlations: a sampling artefact or a key issue for sustainable development?
Animal Conservation 13: 446-447
Cantarello E, Steck CE, Fontana P, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) A multi-scale study of Orthoptera species richness and human population size controlling for
sampling effort. Naturwissenschaften 97: 265-271
Chiari C, Dinetti M, Licciardello C, Licitra G & Pautasso M (2010) Urbanization and the more-individuals hypothesis. Journal of Animal Ecology 79: 366-371
Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticultural industry: some implications for plant health. Scientia
Horticulturae 125: 1-15
Golding J, Güsewell S, Kreft H, Kuzevanov VY, Lehvävirta S, Parmentier I & Pautasso M (2010) Species-richness patterns of the living collections of the world's botanic
gardens: a matter of socio-economics? Annals of Botany 105: 689-696
MacLeod A, Pautasso M, Jeger M & Haines-Young R (2010) Evolution of the international regulation of plant pests & challenges for future plant health. Food Security 2: 49-70
Pautasso M (2010) Worsening file-drawer problem in the abstracts of natural, medical and social science databases. Scientometrics 85: 193-202
Pautasso M & Pautasso C (2010) Peer reviewing interdisciplinary papers. European Review 18: 227-237
Pautasso M & Schäfer H (2010) Peer review delay and selectivity in ecology journals. Scientometrics 84: 307-315
Pautasso M, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Pietravalle S, Salama N, Jeger MJ, Lange E & Hehl-Lange S (2010) Plant health and global change – some implications for
landscape management. Biological Reviews 85: 729-755
Pautasso M, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Jeger MJ (2010) The number of links to and from the starting node as a predictor of epidemic size in small-size directed networks.
Ecological Complexity 7: 424-432
Pautasso M, Xu XM, Jeger MJ, Harwood T, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Pellis L (2010) Disease spread in small-size directed trade networks: the role of hierarchical categories.
Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1300-1309
Pecher C, Fritz S, Marini L, Fontaneto D & Pautasso M (2010) Scale-dependence of the correlation between human population and the species richness of stream
macroinvertebrates. Basic Applied Ecology 11: 272-280
Harwood TD, Xu XM, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Shaw M (2009) Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and P.
kernoviae in the UK. Ecological Modelling 220: 3353-3361
Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemic threshold, correlation between links to and from nodes, and
clustering. Journal of Theoretical Biology 260: 402-411

17. References (bis)
Pautasso M (2009) Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Systematics and Evolution 11: 157-189
Pautasso M & Dinetti M (2009) Avian species richness, human population and protected areas across Italy’s regions. Environmental Conservation 36: 22-31
Pautasso M & Powell G (2009) Aphid biodiversity is correlated with human population in European countries. Oecologia 160: 839-846
Pautasso M & Zotti M (2009) Macrofungal taxa and human population in Italy's regions. Biodiversity & Conservation 18: 473-485
Xu XM, Harwood TD, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Spatio-temporal analysis of an invasive plant pathogen (Phytophthora ramorum) in England and Wales. Ecography 32:
504-516
Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2008) Comparative epidemiology of zoosporic plant pathogens. European Journal of Plant Pathology 122: 111-126
Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2008) Plant disease and global change – the importance of long-term data sets. New Phytologist 177: 8-11
Lonsdale D, Pautasso M & Holdenrieder O (2008) Wood-decaying fungi in the forest: conservation needs and management options. European Journal of Forest Research 127:
1-22
Pautasso M & Chiarucci A (2008) A test of the scale-dependence of the species abundance-people correlation for veteran trees in Italy. Annals of Botany 101: 709-715
Pautasso M & Fontaneto D (2008) A test of the species-people correlation for stream macro-invertebrates in European countries. Ecological Applications 18: 1842-1849
Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2008) Epidemic threshold and network structure: the interplay of probability of transmission and of persistence in directed networks. Ecological
Complexity 5: 1-8
Pautasso M & Weisberg PJ (2008) Density-area relationships: the importance of the zeros. Global Ecology and Biogeography 17: 203-210
Schlick-Steiner B, Steiner F & Pautasso M (2008) Ants and people: a test of two mechanisms behind the large-scale human-biodiversity correlation for Formicidae in Europe. J
of Biogeography 35: 2195-2206
Steck CE & Pautasso M (2008) Human population, grasshopper and plant species richness in European countries. Acta Oecologica 34: 303-310
Jeger MJ, Pautasso M, Holdenrieder O & Shaw MW (2007) Modelling disease spread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences. New Phytologist 174: 179-197
Pautasso M (2007) Scale-dependence of the correlation between human presence and plant/vertebrate species richness. Ecology Letters 10: 16-24
Pautasso M & McKinney ML (2007) The botanist effect revisited: plant species richness, county area and human population size in the US. Conservation Biology 21, 5: 1333-
1340
Pautasso M & Parmentier I (2007) Are the living collections of the world’s botanical gardens following species-richness patterns observed in natural ecosystems? Botanica
Helvetica 117: 15-28
Pautasso M & Gaston KJ (2006) A test of the mechanisms behind avian generalized individuals-area relationships. Global Ecology and Biogeography 15: 303-317
Pautasso M & Gaston KJ (2005) Resources and global avian assemblage structure in forests. Ecology Letters 8: 282-289
Pautasso M, Holdenrieder O & Stenlid J (2005) Susceptibility to fungal pathogens of forests differing in tree diversity. In: Forest Diversity and Function (Scherer-Lorenzen M,
Koerner Ch & Schulze D, eds.). Ecol. Studies Vol. 176. Springer, Berlin, pp. 263-289
Holdenrieder O, Pautasso M, Weisberg PJ & Lonsdale D (2004) Tree diseases and landscape processes: the challenge of landscape pathology. Trends in Ecology and
Evolution 19, 8: 446-452