Agriculture is crucial for Afghanistan's economy, accounting for 25% of GDP and employing the majority of the workforce. However, agricultural productivity and incomes remain low due to a lack of irrigation, rural infrastructure, skills, and support services. Most farmers practice subsistence farming on small landholdings with rain-fed crops. Expanding irrigation, improving crop varieties, and linking farmers to markets could boost yields, incomes, and jobs. A two-pillar strategy focusing on both irrigated commercial farming and rain-fed subsistence areas could help reduce Afghanistan's high poverty and unemployment rates.
3. Objectives:
This conference presentation is attempting to:
disclose the status of agriculture and poverty in
Afghanistan
Link agriculture with poverty in the country
It will also answer the two key questions:
1. Will agriculture and natural resources be adequate to
drive growth and job creation in Afghanistan?
2. What are the most important policy and investment
priorities to support agricultural growth and job
creation?
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4. Why Afghanistan is termed to be an
agricultural country?
Brainstorming
???
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5. Why Afghanistan is termed to be an agricultural country؟
A country is termed to be agricultural because of the
availability of a number of possibilities as:
The availability of suitable climate for crops and trees,
availability of vast areas of land for cultivation, abundant
supply of water, and some others.
Many countries like Japan with limited land, hot desert
countries with shortage of water, freezing weather in
European countries limit agriculture.
Afghanistan has almost all the natural possibilities that can
qualify it as an agricultural country. Variety of climate,
large number of rivers, large peace of fertile land and
other..
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6. Introduction
Agriculture (excluding opium poppy) accounts for about one quarter
of national GDP and is the second largest sector after services. (in
2013, agriculture contributed 25% of national GDP ($4.5 billion out of
$18 billion).
More than 80 percent of the population and nearly 90 percent of the
poor live in rural areas, and agriculture plays an important role in
their livelihoods.
Agriculture is the sector with the greatest potential to drive economic
growth in the foreseeable future,
Generate the foreign exchange and
Government revenue needed to help offset projected reductions in
foreign aid.
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7. Introduction cont..
Key features of Afghan Agriculture sector
Agro-processing accounts for over 90% of total manufacturing.
The sector employs some 4.5 million workers, or 60% of the total Afghan
workforce.
Very high inequality in holdings - majority (60%) of holdings are small (<
1ha)
Most farmers producing for own consumption – subsistence orientation.
High geographical dispersion with population concentrated in selected
fertile areas with water.
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9. GDP proportion of major sector
of Afghanistan
42
30
28
Services
Agriculture
industry
The work force proportion of
major sector of Afghanistan
15.7
5.7
78.6
Services
industry
agricultu
re
Source: IRACSO, 2010 report
Key features conti….
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13. Livestock, vegetable and fruit production, 2014
Livestock production, Afghanistan
Type Unit production
Meat Ton 156, 900
Beef Ton 61900
Mutton Ton 40900
Goat meat Ton 34300
Camel meat Ton 3300
Chicken Ton 8800
Other Ton 7700
Milk Ton 2032400
Hides No 796600
Skins No 4647000
Eggs Ton 25900
Source: NRVA Survey report, 2014
Vegetables and fruit
Commodity
Production ( 000
tons)
All fruits 1401
Almond 47
Walnut 12
Grape 530
Apple 90
Apricot 75
Orange 9
Other citrus 2
pomogranate 24
Pear 3
peach 12
Plum 25
Melons 222
Water Melons 190
Other Fruits 160
All vegetables 834
Potato 500
Onion 135
Tomato 85
Carrot 37
okra 20
pumpkin 17
Others 40
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14. National annual farming input cost by type
of production input (in million Afs) Total:
0
2
4
6
Fertiliser Seed
Machine
Labour
Other
Water
5.218
4.144
3.073
1.455
1.346
1.268
Thousands
World Bank, 2012
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15. Major problems facing agriculture
sector in Afghanistan
Low yield
Lack of sound rural infrastructure
Lack of adequate skill and knowledge
Problems in land ownership
Arid and semi arid climate and water potential is not
fully utilized.
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16. Land distribution in Afghanistan
39
123
46
Mountains and other
Arable Land
Forest
permanent Pasture
Source: www.cso.gov.af
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17. Household , by ownership of irrigated
land, irrigated land size in percentage
Ownership 2012
No Ownership 62.1
any Ownership 37.9 100
Less than 2 jeribs 11.8 31
2-3.9 jeribs 10.3 27
4- 5.9 jeribs 5.3 14
6 - 9.9 jeribs 3.8 10
10 -19.9 jeribs 4.8 13
20 jeribs and more 1.9 5
Total 100 100
Mean land size of any ownership 6
Source: NRVA report, 2014
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18. Monthly precipitation amount and average air
temperature in Kunduz, Afghanistan
Source: NRVA, 2014 survey report
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21. Poverty
Poverty is about not having enough money to meet
basic needs including food, clothing and shelter.
This section focuses on the estimation and trend
analysis of poverty, and it presents some basic
correlates between agriculture and poverty.
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22. Poverty cont…
There are two major poverty indexes that are calculated on the basis of poverty
lines.
The first is the headcount index, which represents the percentage of the
population whose monthly per capita consumption expenditure are below the
poverty line.
This index is the most commonly used for poverty measurement mainly
because of its simplicity and ease of interpretation. P0=Np/N
In fact, two populations with the same poverty headcount index might have
totally different living standards in that in one, the poor are concentrated just
below the poverty line, while in the other they have consumption levels well
below the line.
The second index used for poverty measurement is the poverty gap. This index
represents the average distance between the consumption levels of the poor
and the poverty line, thus capturing whether the poor have consumption just
or far below the poverty line.
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23. Poverty gap…, formulae
Calculating of poverty gap index assuming poverty line of 125$
Expenditure for each individual in
country
Poverty Gap Index
(P1)
Expenditure in
country C 100 110 150 160
Poverty gap 25 15 0 0
G/Z 0.2 0.12 0 0 0.08 (=0.32/4)
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24. Poverty gap cont..
Trends of poverty measures in Afghanistan
Poverty indicators Survey year
2007-2008 2011-2012
Poverty headcount 36.3 36.5
Poverty Gap 7.9 8.6
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28. Fig: Pathway to decrease poverty through increase productivity
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29. Agriculture’s Prospects for Job Creation
The Govt. focus is in mining and agriculture. But mining produces relatively
few jobs: perhaps 10,000 - 30,000 by the 2020s. Even in the best-case scenario,
mining in Afghanistan could directly generate about 100,000 - 125,000 jobs
over the next ten years.
This is a rather small number compared to the 400,000- 500,000 young
people who will enter the national workforce annually,
And with most of the jobs in mining being for skilled and semi-skilled workers,
their direct benefits for the rural poor, landless, nomads, and women are
likely to be limited.
The job impact from agricultural growth would be much more substantial.
Agriculture generates 3.2 - 3.4 million FTE jobs.
The number of jobs could significantly increase if the irrigated area can be
expanded and productivity raised.
For example: Expanding the irrigated area for cereal production by 100,000 ha
could produce an additional 80,000 - 90,000 FTE jobs; Irrigating arable
land for crop production could create 33 - 60 percent more jobs per hectare
than relying on rain-fed farming; and Shifting from wheat to production of
some horticultural crops could triple, or even quadruple, the labor input
(employment) per hectare.
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30. To decrease poverty and increase
agri. Production and productivity a
two pillar strategy is needed
Pillar 2
•Rainfed wheat
•Nomadic livestock
Main focus
•Converting rainfed into
irrigated
•Targeting the poor, nomads
and landless
•Improve productivity of
rainfed crops
•Settlement of Kuchi
population
Pillar 1
•Irrigated wheat
•Intensive livestock
•Horticulture
Main focus
•Commercial development of
promising value chain
•Targeting commercially
oriented farms
•Linking small farmers with
value chains
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31. Conclusion
Agriculture is the only sector which can respond to the
increasing rate of poverty and unemployment.
Irrigation potential is not fully utilized in the country
Poverty and unemployment is increasing in the
country
Kuchi population is the most vulnerable
The two pillar strategy is very efficient for the
agriculture sector of the country.
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32. References
Government of Afghanistan, 2008. Afghanistan National Development
Strategy: Agriculture and Rural Development. Kabul.
Government of Afghanistan, Central Statistics Organization (CSO), 2007/08.
National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment. Kabul: CSO.
Government of Afghanistan, Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock
(MAIL), 2009. Change Management Program Document. Kabul: MAIL, April.
USAID, 2012. “Land Reform in Afghanistan: Gender Assessment.” Kabul:
United States Agency for International Development.
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. Afghanistan National Development Strategy
1387-1391 (20082013): A Strategy for Security, Governance, Economic Growth &
Poverty Reduction. Kabul: May 2008.
World Bank, 2012. “Interim Strategy Note for Afghanistan,” March 9.
Washington DC: World Bank.
www.adb.org
www.cso.gov.af
www.mail.gov.af
www.mew.gob.af
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Agriculture offers significantly greater potential for creating jobs. It also has prospects for raising labor productivity, benefiting women and other disadvantaged groups (the poor, landless, and nomads), and reducing poverty and food insecurity in rural areas.
Real Gross Domestic Product (real GDP) is a macroeconomic measure of the value of economic output adjusted for price changes (i.e., inflation or deflation). This adjustment transforms the money-value measure, nominal GDP, into an index for quantity of total output.
A change in the physical state or form of the product (such as milling wheat into flour or making strawberries into jam)
In 2016 Afghanistan exported $482M, making it the 104th largest exporter in the world. During the last five years the exports of Afghanistan have decreased at an annualized rate of -15.486%, from $531M in 2011 to $482M in 2016. The most recent exports are led by Grapes which represent 20% of the total exports of Afghanistan, followed by Vegetable Saps, which account for 17.8%.
There are three major poverty indexes that are calculated on the basis of poverty lines.
The first is the headcount index, which represents the percentage of the population whose monthly per capita consumption expenditure are below the poverty line. This index is the most commonly used for poverty measurement mainly because of its simplicity and ease of interpretation.
However, the major limitation of the headcount index is its insensitiveness to the “degree” of poverty, i.e. its inability to provide information as to whether the poor consume just or far below the poverty line. In fact, two populations with the same poverty headcount index might have totally different living standards in that in one, the poor are concentrated just below the poverty line, while in the other they have consumption levels well below the line.
The second index used for poverty measurement is the poverty gap. This index represents the average distance between the consumption levels of the poor and the poverty line, thus capturing whether the poor have consumption just or far below the poverty line.
The squared poverty gap, the third poverty measure, is similar in construction to the poverty gap but it differs in that it applies an increasing weight to greater distances below the poverty line, thus capturing the “severity” of poverty
The poverty gap index can be interpreted as the average percentage shortfall in income for the population, from the poverty line.[5]
If you multiply a country's poverty gap index by both the poverty line and the total number of individuals in the country you get the total amount of money needed to bring the poor in the population out of extreme poverty and up to the poverty line, assuming perfect targeting of transfers. For example, suppose a country has 10 million individuals, a poverty line of $500 per year and a poverty gap index of 5%. Then an average increase of $25 per individual per year would eliminate extreme poverty. Note that $25 is 5% of the poverty line. The total increase needed to eliminate poverty is US$250 million—$25 multiplied by 10 million individuals.
The poverty gap index is an important measure beyond the commonly used headcount ratio. Two regions may have the similar headcount ratio, but distinctly different poverty gap indexes. A higher poverty gap index means that poverty is more severe.
The poverty gap index is additive. In other words, the index can be used as an aggregate poverty measure, as well as decomposed for various sub-groups of the population, such as by region, employment sector, education level, gender, age or ethnic group.
As evidenced in the 2007-08 NRVA report, Afghanistan is characterized by sharp differences in poverty incidence by residence and by region.
The analysis of NRVA 2011-12 confirms previous results. The incidence of poverty in rural areas is 9 percentage points higher than in urban ones, being 37.7 and 28.9 percent respectively. The nomadic Kuchi population is the most vulnerable to absolute poverty, with poverty rates of 53.8 percent.
In line with the results observed at the national level, poverty has not changed significantly over time within each of the domains considered; it remains constant by residence and region, with the only exceptions being the North and North East regions where poverty has significantly – respectively – decreased and increased over time
First movers The most promising opportunities for “first movers” lie with irrigated wheat, horticultural crops (defined here as fruits, nuts, and vegetables), and intensive livestock production (milk, eggs, and poultry meat) in peri-urban areas.
These three subsectors have several major advantages:
They have the best catch-up potential in the short term for raising productivity within the constraints of existing institutional capacities and infrastructure.
These urgently need to be improved for longer-term gains, but this will take time to achieve.
irrigated wheat and horticultural and livestock products can be produced on a competitive basis with imports (and could be exported in some cases).
These commodities face strong and growing demand at home or abroad.
The three subsectors are spatially concentrated in relatively small intensive irrigated and peri-urban areas that are somewhat secure and have good access to markets, and are also well located for leveraging the infrastructure investments that are planned in growth and resource corridors.
They can leverage significant value addition and employment along value chains, and increase the incomes and employment of large numbers of people.
Economic growth, job creation, and food security are central to the decade of transformation (2015–25) and long-term security for the people of Afghanistan. The Bank and the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GoIRA) recognize that agriculture and rural development are key to inclusive growth, and hence need renewed vigor and strategic long-term investments. Further, the Bank and GoIRA acknowledge that increases in agricultural productivity and market access for smallholders are critical for rural development, job creation, and food security in Afghanistan. In agrarian economies like Afghanistan’s, higher yields in agriculture, access to non-farm rural income-earning activities, migration of family members to cities, and transition to wage employment are milestones on the path to prosperity.5 But these options can only be achieved by paying attention to production risk management, by investing in climate-smart agriculture, by promoting agricultural trade, and by integrating smallholders into the value chains of commercial agriculture. In turn, such efforts need to be coupled with an enabling policy environment for private investments into commercial agriculture, and with functioning agricultural sector institutions that generate and diffuse the new technologies necessary for long-term increases in productivity and that ensure the quality and safety of products. Since manufacturing in Afghanistan is in its infancy and the jobs to be created in the mining sector will be largely for skilled and semi-skilled workers, agriculture will remain the main driver of economic growth and the biggest employer in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future. As outlined in the National Agriculture Development Framework (NADF) document (2009), the Government’s strategic framework in agriculture has four programmatic pillars: production and productivity; economic regeneration through development of value chains; natural resource management; and change management within the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock (MAIL). Based on these four pillars, a number of sector-specific policies, strategies, and laws have been developed, and more recently two national priority programs (NPPs).6 But implementing the NADF and the NPPs poses challenges. Although MAIL has developed a large number of subsector-specific policies, laws, and strategies, many of these remain nonbinding because they have not moved beyond the draft stage.7 Even once they are adopted, serious concerns remain about the institutional capacities of the relevant public institutions to implement such a broad range of interventions within any realistic time frame. Serious questions
Economic growth, job creation, and food security are central to the decade of transformation (2015–25) and long-term security for the people of Afghanistan.
In agrarian economies like Afghanistan’s, higher yields in agriculture, access to non-farm rural income-earning activities, migration of family members to cities, and transition to wage employment are milestones on the path to prosperity.
But these options can only be achieved by paying attention to production risk management, by investing in climate-smart agriculture, by promoting agricultural trade, and by integrating smallholders into the value chains of commercial agriculture. In turn, such efforts need to be coupled with an enabling policy environment for private investments into commercial agriculture, and with functioning agricultural sector institutions that generate and diffuse the new technologies necessary for long-term increases in productivity and that ensure the quality and safety of products
It is needed to adopt a more selective approach, focusing first on the subsectors and areas where early gains will be easiest to achieve, in the expectation that the rest of the sector will follow.