Investors play a critical role in both the recovery and future of the housing market by acquiring non-performing loans and single-family homes. Unlike other markets, investing in housing is not a zero-sum game as investors' and borrowers' interests can be aligned through strategies like loan modifications and rental conversions. Carrington offers several residential investment strategies including acquiring non-performing loans and single-family rentals to help stabilize communities and transition borrowers while generating returns.
3. Residential Investment Themes
Investors Play a Critical Role in BOTH
the Recovery and the Future of the Housing Market
Unlike other Financial Markets,
Investing in Residential Housing is NOT a Zero‐Sum Proposition
Can offer an Alignment of Interest between Investors, Borrowers and Policymakers
PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 2
4. Residential Investment Themes
Discussion Summary & Themes
Investors play a critical role in the cleanup and future of the housing market
Investors and borrowers interests should be
aligned during the cleanup phase… Preserve
value of
property
Keep the
property cash‐
flowing
Keep borrower
in the home
PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 3
5. Carrington: Overview
Investment Management Resources
Active residential mortgage loan investor since 2004
Acquired in excess of $26 billion in mortgage loans since inception
Utilize internal operational infrastructure to manage pools of distressed loans & residential rental properties
Mortgage Loan Servicer Mortgage Lending
Tactical Modifications Refinancing
Customized Dispositions Resolution Path Selection
Scaled servicing platform Organically grown underwriting and loan origination platform
Extensive default management and loss mitigation capabilities Focused on quality loan production versus volume
Property Management Real Estate Brokerage
Rental Management Property Dispositions
Due Diligence ‐ Site Visits Qualitative Market Data
Property Valuation
Fannie Mae on Tenant‐in‐Place Program
42 branch locations throughout U.S.
Currently managing properties in 18 states for Fannie Mae
Control over property disposition process
Property manager proprietary Buy‐to‐Rent program
PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 4
6. Residential Investment Strategies
Non‐ Control‐based investment strategy in single family residential mortgage loans
Performing
Loan “High touch” special servicing capabilities
Acquisition &
Resolution Loan mods, short sales, refinancings and rental conversions contribute to returns
The “New” asset class – bringing a regional asset class to institutional world
Single Family
Rental Strategy Developing national strategy for single family rentals
Homeownership is declining – need to reconstitute vacant homes into rental stock
Private Label – Mortgage Lending 2.0
Non‐Agency
Loan Fill liquidity gap in private label lending market
Origination
Thought leadership necessary to structure new market with proper alignments
PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 5
7. Carrington: Residential Investment Strategies
Strategies consistent with US Government policy & housing initiatives:
Work with struggling homeowners to offer affordable modified mortgage loan payments
Assist consumers during the transition from homeowners to tenants
Remove excess vacant homes from property markets
Re‐vitalize neighborhoods and communities through property rehabilitation
Help reduce government’s footprint in US mortgage lending market
PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 6
9. Single Family Housing Statistics
35.1% peak‐to‐trough home price decline
2.6% YoY decline (Mar ‘12 vs Mar ‘11)
Prices have remained range bound since 2009
Trends vary amongst property markets
• Phoenix: Cash investors propping up values
• Atlanta: Lagging market that continues to decline
• Austin: Positive migration is increasing demand
Housing Affordability Index is at all time high
Median Income relative to Qualifying Income
Consumer credit impacted during crisis
Tight underwriting limits loan availability
Affordability not translating into high demand
Source: S&P Case Shiller, National Association of Realtors PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 8
10. Single Family Housing Statistics
Large pipeline of delinquent borrowers
Trend is clearly moving in the right direction
Increased efforts to work with borrowers
Strategic resolutions include loan modifications
Visible inventory = Existing Home Sales Inventory
Pending Inventory = Foreclosures
Significant inventory is available on market
Pipeline of distressed properties is increasing
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Realtors PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 9
11. Single Family Housing Statistics
Aging foreclosure inventory: 42% of loans have had no payment in over 24 months
Source: Lender Processing Services PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 10
12. Single Family Housing Statistics
US Monthly Foreclosure Activity
Source: Lender Processing Services, RealtyTrac PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 11
13. Non‐Performing Loans
Top 10 banks hold well over $150bn in delinquent 1st lien mortgage loans*
Non‐
Performing Delinquent and defaulted mortgage loans are generally priced to liquidation
Loans
Liquidation timelines vary significantly among states
Estimated Foreclosure Timeline by State**
* Source: FDIC call reports
** Timelines based upon Carrington experience PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 12
14. NPL Acquisition & Resolution
Control‐based strategy
NPL Strategy Optionality exists through “high touch” resolution & disposition strategies
Evaluate strategies aimed at keeping borrowers in homes and asset cash flowing
Customized Disposition Plan for each Loan
Loan
Prepay at Par
Modification
Deed-in-Lieu / Government Refi
Deed-for-Lease Program
Delinquent Current
Mortgage Mortgage
Refinance after
Short Sale
Debt Forgiveness
Legend
Property Sale Foreclose and
Re-Default
Liquidate or Rent
Refinance
Loan Sale Secondary Whole Secondary Whole
Loan Sale Loan Sale
PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 13
15. Non‐Performing Loans
Asymmetric risk/return profile for distressed whole loan pools
NPL Risk & Basic loan pricing models are generally priced to a liquidation scenario
Return
Profile Liquidation timelines are state specific
Judicial versus non‐judicial foreclosure has the largest impact on timelines
Generic Pricing by State
Source: Carrington Capital Management, LLC
‐ “Median Price” means the generic pricing analysis assumes median home price in the particular state
‐ “Constant Price” means the generic pricing analysis assumes a constant $200,000 home price for all states PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 14
16. Non‐Performing Loans
Substantial capital cushion with asymmetric risk/return profile
Low cost basis can provide meaningful downside protection
• Current market prices for non‐performing loans is generically 60% of current property value
• Modeled home values would have to decline 27.25% from current levels to impair invested capital
• Modeled probability of $1 loss of invested capital is less than 1.0%
Strength of Invested Capital Price as % of Property Value Home Price (“HP”) Simulation
(Probability of $1 Loss on Investment) (Stressed Vol over 3‐year Time Horizon)
100.00% 6.75% Mean Stressed HPD: 10.25%*
Assumes 3‐year Time Horizon Carry Costs Standard Deviation: 7.11%
2.25% Annual Carry Costs
6.0% Broker
6.00% Broker Fee at Liquidation 87.25% 0% HPD
At market price of 60.0% 50% probability
‐3% HPD
to property value, home home values decline
prices can decline an LESS THAN 10.25%
77.00% ‐10.25% HPD Base HPD
additional 17.00% from
50% probability
stress case (27.25% in total) ‐17% HPD
home values decline
prior to a loss of $1 of
MORE THAN 10.25%
invested capital. 60.00% ‐27% HPD
Acquisition
Less than 1.0% probability of Price
$1 loss of invested capital at Price = 60% of
60% of current property value Property
37.25% Value
‐50% HPD
* Generic stressed case home price depreciation. Stressed for median income and unemployment variables. PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 15
17. Non‐Performing Loans
Ability to perform loan level due diligence
Transparency Ability to perform exterior site visits to reconcile property value
Ability to review all servicing notes and correspondence with borrowers
Typical diligence pull through rates range between 70% to 90%*
Due Diligence
Review loan files for compliance, chain of title, litigation
Accounting constraints keep bank sellers on the sidelines
Challenges AG Settlement temporarily put some bank NPL seller programs on hold
Uncertainty surrounding foreclosure moratoriums and legislated modifications
* Based upon Carrington Capital Management, LLC whole loan acquisition experience PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 16
18. Homeownership Statistics
Structural shift or reversion to normal level?
69.25% peak in homeownership
Since 2004 peak in homeownership rate:
• Owners have increased 1.8% (absolute terms)
• Renters have increased 18.5% (absolute terms)
• Vacant homes increased 14.1% (absolute terms)
Total Housing Units 132,596
Vacant housing units 18,474
Assume 100% of 90+ DQs/FCs become renters
Owner occupied housing units a 74,601
Renter occupied housing units 39,521 • Between 3 – 4 million increase in rent demand
Occupied housing units b 114,122 • New formations could add 2+ million in demand
Homeownership Rate (Owner occ. units / Occ. units) 65.37
Mortgage Loans c 47,000
90+ days plus FC (%) d 8.91
90+ days plus FC (#) e = [c x d] 4,188
Adjusted Owner occupied housing units f = [a ‐ e] 70,413
Adjusted Homeownership rate (%) g = [f / b] 61.70
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Mortgage Bankers Association, Carrington Capital Management PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 17
19. REO Rental Strategy
Increased rental demand, low vacancies and stable rental rates
Multiple sources to acquire properties
REO Rental
• Auctions, bulk opportunities through banks, MLS, GSEs and NPL loans
Consistent with policy efforts to reduce inventory and reconstitute housing stock
Potential New Rental Demand/Stock
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Carrington Capital Management PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 18
20. Single Family Rental Strategy
“Even the Oracle of Omaha, billionaire Warren Buffett, told CNBC that
distressed single‐family homes were one of the best investment
opportunities around, asserting, ‘…It’s a leveraged way of owning a very
cheap asset now and I think that’s probably as an attractive an investment as
you can make.’” ‐ Warren Buffett, Forbes, April 2012
“…rental markets are strengthening in some areas of the country, reflecting
in part a decline in the homeownership rate. Reducing some of the barriers
to converting foreclosed properties to rental units will help redeploy the
existing stock of houses in a more efficient way. Such conversions might also
increase lenders' eventual recoveries on foreclosed and surrendered
properties.” – Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Housing
White Paper, January 2012
“The best opportunities for single‐family REO‐to‐rental investors are in Florida
and the Midwest, which boast high cap rates and a large stock of potential
REO properties” – CoreLogic, Market Pulse, April 2012
PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 19
21. REO Rental Strategy
Rent is not linearly correlated with home prices
Rent‐to‐
Property Net cash flow yield targets drive property price point range
Value Ratio
Higher running yield targets generally garner the focus of lower value properties
Average Monthly Rent Payment & Rent Yield
Property Value Distribution
Source: Carrington Property Services, LLC PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 20
22. REO Rental Strategy
Typical Property Profile Typical Floor Plan
Average Market Value: $120,000
Average Monthly Rent: $1,222
Target Rental Yield: 12%-16%
Total Square Footage: 1,750 square feet
Rent/Square Foot: $0.70
Bedrooms: 3.3
Bathrooms: 2.3
Total Rooms: 6.8
Typical Tenant Profile
Number of Occupants: 3.4
Number of Minors/Property: 1.5
Rent-To-Income: 20%
Average Household Income: $6,200/month
Source: Carrington Property Services, LLC PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 21
23. REO Rental Strategy
Rental Acquire in select markets with significant distressed supply
Strategy
Acquire, rehabilitate, identify tenants and manage rental portfolio
Prefer property characteristics conducive to effective rental management
Target
Properties Target square foot range, bed/bath counts and prefer newer/renovated properties
Limit properties with additional maintenance requirements (e.g. swimming pools)
Importance of internal operational capabilities and controls
Investment
Approach Risks of outsourcing key functions
Ability to manage and control key aspects of rental process is important
PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 22
24. REO Rental Strategy
Policy initiatives aimed at GSE REO portfolio is slow to proceed
Challenges Operational challenges for new entrants
to Strategy
• Technology, pricing, acquisition, management
Empirical data concerning key pricing variables
Select Variables used
to assess Rental Strategy
Limited historical data exists on single family
rentals for non‐operators to accurately explore
economics…
PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 23
25. Carrington: Single Family Rental Platform
13 affiliate operating companies
Approx. 1,800+ full-time and contract employees
National network of field assessors for asset evaluation
Local Contractors Manage approx. 5,200 properties, 3,200 in rental CPS National Network
Disposed of 34,000 assets and managed 10,000 rental units to date
Established relationships Over 2,000 real estate
with hundreds of local professionals in national
contractors Asset preferred network
Management
Portfolio
34,000+
40 employees Property properties managed Property Over 850 agents and over
Two regional offices Preservation Sales 40 offices licensed in 22
10,000+ states
Nationwide coverage rental assets managed
Technological
Infrastructure
Over 35 employees
Provide services in 26
states
RNT Logistics
Vendor management
Business analytics Core portfolio systems
Acquisition and disposition tracking Financial results and reporting
PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 24
26. Private Label Mortgage Lending
Non‐Agency Mortgage Lending 2.0
US Mortgage Prior to 2008, US Gov’t provided explicit or implicit support to 50‐60% of loan volume
Market –
Supplier of Recently, Government sponsorship has reached levels approaching 90%
Loans
Private label securitization market is extremely limited and economics are challenged
Government versus Private Sector Mortgage Originations
Source: Inside Mortgage Finance PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 25
27. Private Label Mortgage Lending
Thought and action‐oriented leadership in the private label market is required
The New Must improve upon the market’s past inadequacies
Private Label
Market Alignment of interests between the lender and the borrower is critical
All participants in the process must have “skin in the game”
Borrowers must be able to provide documentation for fully underwritten loans
Bilateral • Borrowers must consent to ongoing credit/income requests of servicers
Transparency
And • Re‐think Gramm‐Leach‐Bliley
Engagement Lenders must provide plain‐English disclosure
Borrowers should have complete understanding of loan terms and obligations
PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 26
28. Residential Investment Themes
Discussion Summary & Themes
Non‐Performing Loan (“NPL”) and Rental strategies are often consistent with policymaker’s goals
In early innings of developing the Buy‐to‐Rent strategy for residential housing on a national scale
• Concerns about the number of new players that lack the infrastructure and experience
• Concerns about the potential for “rental” operators to become property “flippers”
Future of private lending has yet to be determined
• Must rethink the relationship between the borrower, lender and investor
• Successful non‐agency market needs to be built on transparency, alignment of interest
• Rules must be clear and cannot be unilaterally changed
Post election, the discussion concerning long‐term plans for the GSEs will heat up
Investors need to be engaged now to help define the future of the private lending market
PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 27