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Buying & Selling Distressed Mortgage Portfolios Forum


                                          Confidential & Proprietary

                                                     June 2012
Disclaimer and Confidentiality


  Copyright © 2012 Carrington Holding Company, LLC



  No Offer or Solicitation Regarding Securities. This document is for general information purposes only. This document is neither an
  offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any security mentioned herein. Securities related to Carrington funds (“Carrington
  Securities”) are offered only in jurisdictions where permissible by offering documents available through qualified securities dealers or
  banks.

  No Warranties; Estimates Subject to Change; Not Advice. This document is based upon information and assumptions (including
  financial, statistical, or historical data and computations based upon such data) that we consider reliable and reasonable, but we do not
  represent that such information and assumptions are accurate or complete, or appropriate or useful in any particular context, including
  the context of any investment decision, and it should not be relied upon as such. Estimates expressed herein constitute Carrington
  Holding Company’s present judgment and are subject to change without notice. They should not be construed as either projections or
  predictions of value, performance, or results, nor as legal, tax, financial, or accounting advice. No representation is made that any
  strategy, performance, or result illustrated herein can or will be achieved or duplicated. The effect of factors other than those
  assumed, including factors not mentioned, considered, or foreseen, by themselves or in conjunction with other factors, could produce
  dramatically different performance or results. Investors considering purchasing a Carrington Security should consult their own financial
  and legal advisors for information about such security, the risks and investment considerations arising from an investment in such
  security, the appropriate tools to analyze such investment, and the suitability of such investment in such investor’s particular
  circumstances.

  Confidential; Not for Public Disclosure. This document of Carrington Holding Company, LLC is confidential and not intended for public
  review. No recipient of this document shall use it as a basis for any publication or research report that will be published, distributed or
  posted in any public domain. This document of Carrington Holding Company, LLC shall not be disclosed to any other party except as
  required by law, regulatory requirements, court order or discovery procedures. No matter contained in the attached document may be
  reproduced or copied by any means without the prior written consent of Carrington Holding Company, LLC.




                                                                                                                    PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 1
Residential Investment Themes



                  Investors Play a Critical Role in BOTH
           the Recovery and the Future of the Housing Market 


                            Unlike other Financial Markets, 
             Investing in Residential Housing is NOT a Zero‐Sum Proposition




    Can offer an Alignment of Interest between Investors, Borrowers and Policymakers




                                                                       PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 2
Residential Investment Themes


    Discussion Summary & Themes

     Investors play a critical role in the cleanup and future of the housing market




    Investors and borrowers interests should be 
    aligned during the cleanup phase…                                   Preserve 
                                                                        value of 
                                                                        property


                                                          Keep the 
                                                       property cash‐
                                                           flowing


                                                                            Keep borrower 
                                                                             in the home




                                                                                       PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 3
Carrington:  Overview

                                                  Investment Management Resources

                                           Active residential mortgage loan investor since 2004
                                   Acquired in excess of $26 billion in mortgage loans since inception
             Utilize internal operational infrastructure to manage pools of distressed loans & residential rental properties


                  Mortgage Loan Servicer                                                     Mortgage Lending
                     Tactical Modifications                                                      Refinancing
                    Customized Dispositions                                                Resolution Path Selection




                    Scaled servicing platform                           Organically grown underwriting and loan origination platform
  Extensive default management and loss mitigation capabilities               Focused on quality loan production versus volume



                   Property Management                                                     Real Estate Brokerage
                      Rental Management                                                      Property Dispositions
                    Due Diligence ‐ Site Visits                                             Qualitative Market Data
                       Property Valuation

            Fannie Mae on Tenant‐in‐Place Program
                                                                                      42 branch locations throughout U.S.
    Currently managing properties in 18 states for Fannie Mae
                                                                                   Control over property disposition process
       Property manager proprietary Buy‐to‐Rent program


                                                                                                                 PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 4
Residential Investment Strategies


Non‐               Control‐based investment strategy in single family residential mortgage loans
Performing 
Loan               “High touch” special servicing capabilities 
Acquisition & 
Resolution         Loan mods, short sales, refinancings and rental conversions contribute to returns



                   The “New” asset class – bringing a regional asset class to institutional world
Single Family 
Rental Strategy    Developing national strategy for single family rentals
                   Homeownership is declining – need to reconstitute vacant  homes into rental stock


                   Private Label – Mortgage Lending 2.0
Non‐Agency 
Loan               Fill liquidity gap in private label lending market
Origination
                   Thought leadership necessary to structure new market with proper alignments


                                                                                   PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 5
Carrington:  Residential Investment Strategies




    Strategies consistent with US Government policy & housing initiatives:

      Work with struggling homeowners to offer affordable modified mortgage loan payments

      Assist consumers during the transition from homeowners to tenants

      Remove excess vacant homes from property markets

      Re‐vitalize neighborhoods and communities through property rehabilitation

      Help reduce government’s footprint in US mortgage lending market




                                                                                   PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 6
Residential Investment Spectrum


  Evolution of housing investment opportunities since onset of the global financial crisis


Non‐
Agency 
RMBS



NPLs



Single 
Family 
Rentals


Non‐
Agency 
Lending 2.0


              2008   2009      2010      2011      2012      2013      2014          2015            2016
                                                                              PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 7
Single Family Housing Statistics

                                                               35.1% peak‐to‐trough home price decline
                                                               2.6% YoY decline (Mar ‘12 vs Mar ‘11)
                                                               Prices have remained range bound since 2009
                                                               Trends vary amongst property markets
                                                                 • Phoenix: Cash investors propping up values

                                                                 • Atlanta: Lagging market that continues to decline

                                                                 • Austin: Positive migration is increasing demand



                                                               Housing Affordability Index is at all time high
                                                               Median Income relative to Qualifying Income
                                                               Consumer credit impacted during crisis
                                                               Tight underwriting limits loan availability
                                                               Affordability not translating into high demand



Source:  S&P Case Shiller, National Association of Realtors                                  PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 8
Single Family Housing Statistics


                                                                           Large pipeline of delinquent borrowers
                                                                           Trend is clearly moving in the right direction
                                                                           Increased efforts to work with borrowers
                                                                           Strategic resolutions include loan modifications




                                                                           Visible inventory = Existing Home Sales Inventory
                                                                           Pending Inventory = Foreclosures
                                                                           Significant inventory is available on market
                                                                           Pipeline of distressed properties is increasing




Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Realtors                                 PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 9
Single Family Housing Statistics


      Aging foreclosure inventory:  42% of loans have had no payment in over 24 months




Source:  Lender Processing Services                                        PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 10
Single Family Housing Statistics


      US Monthly Foreclosure Activity




Source:  Lender Processing Services, RealtyTrac   PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 11
Non‐Performing Loans



                                          Top 10 banks hold well over $150bn in delinquent 1st lien mortgage loans*
       Non‐
       Performing                         Delinquent and defaulted mortgage loans are generally priced to liquidation
       Loans
                                          Liquidation timelines vary significantly among states


                                                    Estimated Foreclosure Timeline by State**




* Source: FDIC call reports
** Timelines based upon Carrington experience                                                          PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 12
NPL Acquisition & Resolution


                       Control‐based strategy 
NPL Strategy           Optionality exists through “high touch” resolution & disposition strategies
                       Evaluate strategies aimed at keeping borrowers in homes and asset cash flowing


                                 Customized Disposition Plan for each Loan

                                        Loan
                                                                                      Prepay at Par
                                     Modification

                                   Deed-in-Lieu /                                   Government Refi
                                   Deed-for-Lease                                      Program
       Delinquent                                            Current
        Mortgage                                             Mortgage
                                                                                     Refinance after
                                      Short Sale
                                                                                    Debt Forgiveness
         Legend
      Property Sale                 Foreclose and
                                                                                       Re-Default
                                  Liquidate or Rent
       Refinance

       Loan Sale                  Secondary Whole                                   Secondary Whole
                                     Loan Sale                                         Loan Sale


                                                                                        PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 13
Non‐Performing Loans

                                             Asymmetric risk/return profile for distressed whole loan pools
        NPL Risk &                           Basic loan pricing models are generally priced to a liquidation scenario
        Return 
        Profile                              Liquidation timelines are state specific 
                                             Judicial versus non‐judicial foreclosure has the largest impact on timelines

                                                                                                              Generic Pricing by State




Source:  Carrington Capital Management, LLC
‐ “Median Price” means the generic pricing analysis assumes median home price in the particular state
‐ “Constant Price” means the generic pricing analysis assumes a constant $200,000 home price for all states                              PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 14
Non‐Performing Loans


        Substantial capital cushion with asymmetric risk/return profile
          Low cost basis can provide meaningful downside protection
                   • Current market prices for non‐performing loans is generically 60% of current property value
                   • Modeled home values would have to decline 27.25% from current levels to impair invested capital
                   • Modeled probability of $1 loss of invested capital is less than 1.0%

                Strength of Invested Capital                                        Price as % of Property Value                       Home Price (“HP”) Simulation
            (Probability of $1 Loss on Investment)                                                                                    (Stressed Vol over 3‐year Time Horizon)

                                                                                                          100.00%      6.75%             Mean Stressed HPD:          10.25%*
                                                                       Assumes 3‐year Time Horizon                   Carry Costs         Standard Deviation:          7.11%
                                                                            2.25% Annual Carry Costs
                                                                                                                     6.0% Broker
                                                                    6.00% Broker Fee at Liquidation 87.25%                                    0% HPD 
              At market price of 60.0%                                                 50% probability
                                                                                                                                              ‐3% HPD 
               to property value, home                                            home values decline 
                 prices can decline an                                             LESS THAN 10.25%
                                                                                                          77.00%                              ‐10.25% HPD         Base HPD
                additional 17.00% from 
                                                                                       50% probability 
             stress case (27.25% in total)                                                                                                   ‐17% HPD
                                                                                  home values decline 
                 prior to a loss of $1 of 
                                                                                 MORE THAN 10.25%
                    invested capital.                                                                     60.00%                             ‐27% HPD
                                                                                                                    Acquisition 
                                                                        Less than 1.0% probability of                  Price
                                                                        $1 loss of invested capital at              Price = 60% of 
                                                                      60% of current property value                   Property 
                                                                                                          37.25%        Value
                                                                                                                                           ‐50% HPD
* Generic stressed case home price depreciation. Stressed for median income and unemployment variables.                                               PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 15
Non‐Performing Loans



                                          Ability to perform loan level due diligence
       Transparency                       Ability to perform exterior site visits to reconcile property value
                                          Ability to review all servicing notes and correspondence with borrowers


                                          Typical diligence pull through rates range between 70% to 90%*
       Due Diligence
                                          Review loan files for compliance, chain of title, litigation


                                          Accounting constraints keep bank sellers on the sidelines
       Challenges                         AG Settlement temporarily put some bank NPL seller programs on hold
                                          Uncertainty surrounding foreclosure moratoriums and legislated modifications




* Based upon Carrington Capital Management, LLC whole loan acquisition experience                          PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 16
Homeownership Statistics

                                                                                                        Structural shift or reversion to normal level? 
                                                                                                        69.25% peak in homeownership
                                                                                                        Since 2004 peak in homeownership rate:
                                                                                                         • Owners have increased 1.8% (absolute terms)
                                                                                                         • Renters have increased 18.5% (absolute terms)
                                                                                                         • Vacant homes increased 14.1% (absolute terms)




 Total Housing Units                                                                         132,596
 Vacant housing units                                                                         18,474
                                                                                                        Assume 100% of 90+ DQs/FCs become renters
 Owner occupied housing units                                                       a         74,601
 Renter occupied housing units                                                                39,521     • Between 3 – 4 million increase in rent demand
 Occupied housing units                                                             b        114,122     • New formations could add 2+ million in demand
 Homeownership Rate (Owner occ. units / Occ. units)                                            65.37


 Mortgage Loans                                                                     c         47,000
 90+ days plus FC (%)                                                               d           8.91
 90+ days plus FC (#)                                                         e = [c x d]      4,188
 Adjusted Owner occupied housing units                                        f = [a ‐ e]     70,413
 Adjusted Homeownership rate (%)                                              g = [f / b]      61.70
Source:  U.S. Census Bureau, Mortgage Bankers Association, Carrington Capital Management                                          PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 17
REO Rental Strategy


                                          Increased rental demand, low vacancies and stable rental rates
                                          Multiple sources to acquire properties 
       REO Rental
                                              • Auctions, bulk opportunities through banks, MLS, GSEs and NPL loans
                                          Consistent with policy efforts to reduce inventory and reconstitute housing stock


                                                                Potential New Rental Demand/Stock




Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association, Carrington Capital Management                                            PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 18
Single Family Rental Strategy



                        “Even the Oracle of Omaha, billionaire Warren Buffett, told CNBC that
                        distressed single‐family homes were one of the best investment
                        opportunities around, asserting, ‘…It’s a leveraged way of owning a very
                        cheap asset now and I think that’s probably as an attractive an investment as
                        you can make.’” ‐ Warren Buffett, Forbes, April 2012


                        “…rental markets are strengthening in some areas of the country, reflecting
                        in part a decline in the homeownership rate. Reducing some of the barriers
                        to converting foreclosed properties to rental units will help redeploy the
                        existing stock of houses in a more efficient way. Such conversions might also
                        increase lenders' eventual recoveries on foreclosed and surrendered
                        properties.” – Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Housing
                        White Paper, January 2012



                       “The best opportunities for single‐family REO‐to‐rental investors are in Florida
                       and the Midwest, which boast high cap rates and a large stock of potential
                       REO properties” – CoreLogic, Market Pulse, April 2012


                                                                                 PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 19
REO Rental Strategy


                                              Rent is not linearly correlated with home prices 
        Rent‐to‐
        Property                              Net cash flow yield targets drive property price point range
        Value Ratio
                                              Higher running yield targets generally garner the focus of lower value properties


                                                         Average Monthly Rent Payment & Rent Yield
                                                                   Property Value Distribution




Source:  Carrington Property Services, LLC                                                                    PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 20
REO Rental Strategy



                                         Typical Property Profile                   Typical Floor Plan

              Average Market Value:                            $120,000

              Average Monthly Rent:                            $1,222

              Target Rental Yield:                             12%-16%

              Total Square Footage:                            1,750 square feet

              Rent/Square Foot:                                $0.70

              Bedrooms:                                        3.3

              Bathrooms:                                       2.3

              Total Rooms:                                     6.8




                                             Typical Tenant Profile

              Number of Occupants:                             3.4

              Number of Minors/Property:                       1.5

              Rent-To-Income:                                  20%

              Average Household Income:                        $6,200/month


Source:  Carrington Property Services, LLC                                                    PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 21
REO Rental Strategy



Rental          Acquire in select markets with significant distressed supply
Strategy
                Acquire, rehabilitate, identify tenants and manage rental portfolio



                Prefer property characteristics conducive to effective rental management
Target 
Properties      Target square foot range, bed/bath counts and prefer newer/renovated properties
                Limit properties with additional maintenance requirements (e.g. swimming pools)



                Importance of internal operational capabilities and controls
Investment 
Approach        Risks of outsourcing key functions
                Ability to manage and control key aspects of rental process is important




                                                                                PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 22
REO Rental Strategy


                  Policy initiatives aimed at GSE REO portfolio is slow to proceed

 Challenges       Operational challenges for new entrants 
 to Strategy
                   • Technology, pricing, acquisition, management

                  Empirical data concerning key pricing variables 

                                                                        Select Variables used
                                                                      to assess Rental Strategy




Limited historical data exists on single family 
rentals for non‐operators to accurately explore 
economics…




                                                                                   PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 23
Carrington:  Single Family Rental Platform




                                                   13 affiliate operating companies
                                                   Approx. 1,800+ full-time and contract employees




                                  National network of field assessors for asset evaluation
      Local Contractors           Manage approx. 5,200 properties, 3,200 in rental                                CPS National Network
                                  Disposed of 34,000 assets and managed 10,000 rental units to date
   Established relationships                                                                                        Over 2,000 real estate
   with hundreds of local                                                                                           professionals in national
   contractors                                                        Asset                                         preferred network
                                                                   Management


                                                                       Portfolio
                                                                       34,000+
      40 employees                  Property                      properties managed                 Property      Over 850 agents and over
      Two regional offices        Preservation                                                         Sales       40 offices licensed in 22
                                                                       10,000+                                      states
      Nationwide coverage                                        rental assets managed



                                                                  Technological
                                                                  Infrastructure
                                                                                                                       Over 35 employees
                                                                                                                       Provide services in 26
                                                                                                                        states

                                                                   RNT Logistics
                                      Vendor management
                                      Business analytics                      Core portfolio systems
                                      Acquisition and disposition tracking    Financial results and reporting
                                                                                                                  PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 24
Private Label Mortgage Lending


                                                    Non‐Agency Mortgage Lending 2.0


  US Mortgage                       Prior to 2008, US Gov’t provided explicit or implicit support to 50‐60% of loan volume
  Market –
  Supplier of                       Recently, Government sponsorship has reached levels approaching 90%
  Loans
                                    Private label securitization market is extremely limited and economics are challenged



                                           Government versus Private Sector Mortgage Originations




Source:  Inside Mortgage Finance                                                                     PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 25
Private Label Mortgage Lending




                   Thought and action‐oriented leadership in the private label market is required 
The New            Must improve upon the market’s past inadequacies
Private Label 
Market             Alignment of interests between the lender and the borrower is critical
                   All participants in the process must have “skin in the game”


                    Borrowers must be able to provide documentation for fully underwritten loans
Bilateral            • Borrowers must consent to ongoing credit/income requests of servicers
Transparency
And                  • Re‐think Gramm‐Leach‐Bliley
Engagement          Lenders must provide plain‐English disclosure 
                    Borrowers should have complete understanding of loan terms and obligations




                                                                                     PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 26
Residential Investment Themes


    Discussion Summary & Themes



     Non‐Performing Loan (“NPL”) and Rental strategies are often consistent with policymaker’s goals
     In early innings of developing the Buy‐to‐Rent strategy for residential housing on a national scale
        •   Concerns about the number of new players that lack the infrastructure and experience

        •   Concerns about the potential for “rental” operators to become property “flippers”

     Future of private lending has yet to be determined
        •   Must rethink the relationship between the borrower, lender and investor  

        •   Successful non‐agency market needs to be built on transparency, alignment of interest 

        •   Rules must be clear and cannot be unilaterally changed

     Post election, the discussion concerning long‐term plans for the GSEs will heat up

     Investors need to be engaged now to help define the future of the private lending market

                                                                                           PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 27

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Distressed Conference June2012 (Updated)

  • 1. Buying & Selling Distressed Mortgage Portfolios Forum Confidential & Proprietary June 2012
  • 2. Disclaimer and Confidentiality Copyright © 2012 Carrington Holding Company, LLC No Offer or Solicitation Regarding Securities. This document is for general information purposes only. This document is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any security mentioned herein. Securities related to Carrington funds (“Carrington Securities”) are offered only in jurisdictions where permissible by offering documents available through qualified securities dealers or banks. No Warranties; Estimates Subject to Change; Not Advice. This document is based upon information and assumptions (including financial, statistical, or historical data and computations based upon such data) that we consider reliable and reasonable, but we do not represent that such information and assumptions are accurate or complete, or appropriate or useful in any particular context, including the context of any investment decision, and it should not be relied upon as such. Estimates expressed herein constitute Carrington Holding Company’s present judgment and are subject to change without notice. They should not be construed as either projections or predictions of value, performance, or results, nor as legal, tax, financial, or accounting advice. No representation is made that any strategy, performance, or result illustrated herein can or will be achieved or duplicated. The effect of factors other than those assumed, including factors not mentioned, considered, or foreseen, by themselves or in conjunction with other factors, could produce dramatically different performance or results. Investors considering purchasing a Carrington Security should consult their own financial and legal advisors for information about such security, the risks and investment considerations arising from an investment in such security, the appropriate tools to analyze such investment, and the suitability of such investment in such investor’s particular circumstances. Confidential; Not for Public Disclosure. This document of Carrington Holding Company, LLC is confidential and not intended for public review. No recipient of this document shall use it as a basis for any publication or research report that will be published, distributed or posted in any public domain. This document of Carrington Holding Company, LLC shall not be disclosed to any other party except as required by law, regulatory requirements, court order or discovery procedures. No matter contained in the attached document may be reproduced or copied by any means without the prior written consent of Carrington Holding Company, LLC. PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 1
  • 3. Residential Investment Themes Investors Play a Critical Role in BOTH the Recovery and the Future of the Housing Market  Unlike other Financial Markets,  Investing in Residential Housing is NOT a Zero‐Sum Proposition Can offer an Alignment of Interest between Investors, Borrowers and Policymakers PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 2
  • 4. Residential Investment Themes Discussion Summary & Themes  Investors play a critical role in the cleanup and future of the housing market Investors and borrowers interests should be  aligned during the cleanup phase…  Preserve  value of  property Keep the  property cash‐ flowing Keep borrower  in the home PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 3
  • 5. Carrington:  Overview Investment Management Resources Active residential mortgage loan investor since 2004 Acquired in excess of $26 billion in mortgage loans since inception Utilize internal operational infrastructure to manage pools of distressed loans & residential rental properties Mortgage Loan Servicer Mortgage Lending Tactical Modifications Refinancing Customized Dispositions Resolution Path Selection Scaled servicing platform Organically grown underwriting and loan origination platform Extensive default management and loss mitigation capabilities Focused on quality loan production versus volume Property Management Real Estate Brokerage Rental Management Property Dispositions Due Diligence ‐ Site Visits Qualitative Market Data Property Valuation Fannie Mae on Tenant‐in‐Place Program 42 branch locations throughout U.S. Currently managing properties in 18 states for Fannie Mae Control over property disposition process Property manager proprietary Buy‐to‐Rent program PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 4
  • 6. Residential Investment Strategies Non‐  Control‐based investment strategy in single family residential mortgage loans Performing  Loan   “High touch” special servicing capabilities  Acquisition &  Resolution  Loan mods, short sales, refinancings and rental conversions contribute to returns  The “New” asset class – bringing a regional asset class to institutional world Single Family  Rental Strategy  Developing national strategy for single family rentals  Homeownership is declining – need to reconstitute vacant  homes into rental stock  Private Label – Mortgage Lending 2.0 Non‐Agency  Loan   Fill liquidity gap in private label lending market Origination  Thought leadership necessary to structure new market with proper alignments PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 5
  • 7. Carrington:  Residential Investment Strategies Strategies consistent with US Government policy & housing initiatives:  Work with struggling homeowners to offer affordable modified mortgage loan payments  Assist consumers during the transition from homeowners to tenants  Remove excess vacant homes from property markets  Re‐vitalize neighborhoods and communities through property rehabilitation  Help reduce government’s footprint in US mortgage lending market PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 6
  • 9. Single Family Housing Statistics  35.1% peak‐to‐trough home price decline  2.6% YoY decline (Mar ‘12 vs Mar ‘11)  Prices have remained range bound since 2009  Trends vary amongst property markets • Phoenix: Cash investors propping up values • Atlanta: Lagging market that continues to decline • Austin: Positive migration is increasing demand  Housing Affordability Index is at all time high  Median Income relative to Qualifying Income  Consumer credit impacted during crisis  Tight underwriting limits loan availability  Affordability not translating into high demand Source:  S&P Case Shiller, National Association of Realtors PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 8
  • 10. Single Family Housing Statistics  Large pipeline of delinquent borrowers  Trend is clearly moving in the right direction  Increased efforts to work with borrowers  Strategic resolutions include loan modifications  Visible inventory = Existing Home Sales Inventory  Pending Inventory = Foreclosures  Significant inventory is available on market  Pipeline of distressed properties is increasing Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Realtors PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 9
  • 11. Single Family Housing Statistics Aging foreclosure inventory:  42% of loans have had no payment in over 24 months Source:  Lender Processing Services PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 10
  • 12. Single Family Housing Statistics US Monthly Foreclosure Activity Source:  Lender Processing Services, RealtyTrac PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 11
  • 13. Non‐Performing Loans  Top 10 banks hold well over $150bn in delinquent 1st lien mortgage loans* Non‐ Performing   Delinquent and defaulted mortgage loans are generally priced to liquidation Loans  Liquidation timelines vary significantly among states Estimated Foreclosure Timeline by State** * Source: FDIC call reports ** Timelines based upon Carrington experience PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 12
  • 14. NPL Acquisition & Resolution  Control‐based strategy  NPL Strategy  Optionality exists through “high touch” resolution & disposition strategies  Evaluate strategies aimed at keeping borrowers in homes and asset cash flowing Customized Disposition Plan for each Loan Loan Prepay at Par Modification Deed-in-Lieu / Government Refi Deed-for-Lease Program Delinquent Current Mortgage Mortgage Refinance after Short Sale Debt Forgiveness Legend Property Sale Foreclose and Re-Default Liquidate or Rent Refinance Loan Sale Secondary Whole Secondary Whole Loan Sale Loan Sale PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 13
  • 15. Non‐Performing Loans  Asymmetric risk/return profile for distressed whole loan pools NPL Risk &   Basic loan pricing models are generally priced to a liquidation scenario Return  Profile  Liquidation timelines are state specific   Judicial versus non‐judicial foreclosure has the largest impact on timelines Generic Pricing by State Source:  Carrington Capital Management, LLC ‐ “Median Price” means the generic pricing analysis assumes median home price in the particular state ‐ “Constant Price” means the generic pricing analysis assumes a constant $200,000 home price for all states PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 14
  • 16. Non‐Performing Loans Substantial capital cushion with asymmetric risk/return profile  Low cost basis can provide meaningful downside protection • Current market prices for non‐performing loans is generically 60% of current property value • Modeled home values would have to decline 27.25% from current levels to impair invested capital • Modeled probability of $1 loss of invested capital is less than 1.0% Strength of Invested Capital Price as % of Property Value Home Price (“HP”) Simulation (Probability of $1 Loss on Investment) (Stressed Vol over 3‐year Time Horizon) 100.00% 6.75%  Mean Stressed HPD:  10.25%* Assumes 3‐year Time Horizon Carry Costs Standard Deviation: 7.11% 2.25% Annual Carry Costs 6.0% Broker 6.00% Broker Fee at Liquidation 87.25% 0% HPD  At market price of 60.0%  50% probability ‐3% HPD  to property value, home  home values decline  prices can decline an  LESS THAN 10.25% 77.00% ‐10.25% HPD Base HPD additional 17.00% from  50% probability  stress case (27.25% in total)  ‐17% HPD home values decline  prior to a loss of $1 of  MORE THAN 10.25% invested capital. 60.00% ‐27% HPD Acquisition  Less than 1.0% probability of  Price $1 loss of invested capital at  Price = 60% of  60% of current property value Property  37.25% Value ‐50% HPD * Generic stressed case home price depreciation. Stressed for median income and unemployment variables. PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 15
  • 17. Non‐Performing Loans  Ability to perform loan level due diligence Transparency  Ability to perform exterior site visits to reconcile property value  Ability to review all servicing notes and correspondence with borrowers  Typical diligence pull through rates range between 70% to 90%* Due Diligence  Review loan files for compliance, chain of title, litigation  Accounting constraints keep bank sellers on the sidelines Challenges  AG Settlement temporarily put some bank NPL seller programs on hold  Uncertainty surrounding foreclosure moratoriums and legislated modifications * Based upon Carrington Capital Management, LLC whole loan acquisition experience PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 16
  • 18. Homeownership Statistics  Structural shift or reversion to normal level?   69.25% peak in homeownership  Since 2004 peak in homeownership rate: • Owners have increased 1.8% (absolute terms) • Renters have increased 18.5% (absolute terms) • Vacant homes increased 14.1% (absolute terms) Total Housing Units 132,596 Vacant housing units 18,474  Assume 100% of 90+ DQs/FCs become renters Owner occupied housing units a 74,601 Renter occupied housing units 39,521 • Between 3 – 4 million increase in rent demand Occupied housing units b 114,122 • New formations could add 2+ million in demand Homeownership Rate (Owner occ. units / Occ. units) 65.37 Mortgage Loans  c 47,000 90+ days plus FC (%) d 8.91 90+ days plus FC (#) e = [c x d] 4,188 Adjusted Owner occupied housing units f = [a ‐ e] 70,413 Adjusted Homeownership rate (%) g = [f / b]  61.70 Source:  U.S. Census Bureau, Mortgage Bankers Association, Carrington Capital Management PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 17
  • 19. REO Rental Strategy  Increased rental demand, low vacancies and stable rental rates  Multiple sources to acquire properties  REO Rental • Auctions, bulk opportunities through banks, MLS, GSEs and NPL loans  Consistent with policy efforts to reduce inventory and reconstitute housing stock Potential New Rental Demand/Stock Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association, Carrington Capital Management PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 18
  • 20. Single Family Rental Strategy “Even the Oracle of Omaha, billionaire Warren Buffett, told CNBC that distressed single‐family homes were one of the best investment opportunities around, asserting, ‘…It’s a leveraged way of owning a very cheap asset now and I think that’s probably as an attractive an investment as you can make.’” ‐ Warren Buffett, Forbes, April 2012 “…rental markets are strengthening in some areas of the country, reflecting in part a decline in the homeownership rate. Reducing some of the barriers to converting foreclosed properties to rental units will help redeploy the existing stock of houses in a more efficient way. Such conversions might also increase lenders' eventual recoveries on foreclosed and surrendered properties.” – Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Housing White Paper, January 2012 “The best opportunities for single‐family REO‐to‐rental investors are in Florida and the Midwest, which boast high cap rates and a large stock of potential REO properties” – CoreLogic, Market Pulse, April 2012 PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 19
  • 21. REO Rental Strategy  Rent is not linearly correlated with home prices  Rent‐to‐ Property   Net cash flow yield targets drive property price point range Value Ratio  Higher running yield targets generally garner the focus of lower value properties Average Monthly Rent Payment & Rent Yield Property Value Distribution Source:  Carrington Property Services, LLC PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 20
  • 22. REO Rental Strategy Typical Property Profile Typical Floor Plan Average Market Value:  $120,000 Average Monthly Rent:  $1,222 Target Rental Yield:  12%-16% Total Square Footage:  1,750 square feet Rent/Square Foot:  $0.70 Bedrooms:  3.3 Bathrooms:  2.3 Total Rooms:  6.8 Typical Tenant Profile Number of Occupants:  3.4 Number of Minors/Property:  1.5 Rent-To-Income:  20% Average Household Income:  $6,200/month Source:  Carrington Property Services, LLC PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 21
  • 23. REO Rental Strategy Rental   Acquire in select markets with significant distressed supply Strategy  Acquire, rehabilitate, identify tenants and manage rental portfolio  Prefer property characteristics conducive to effective rental management Target  Properties  Target square foot range, bed/bath counts and prefer newer/renovated properties  Limit properties with additional maintenance requirements (e.g. swimming pools)  Importance of internal operational capabilities and controls Investment  Approach  Risks of outsourcing key functions  Ability to manage and control key aspects of rental process is important PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 22
  • 24. REO Rental Strategy  Policy initiatives aimed at GSE REO portfolio is slow to proceed Challenges   Operational challenges for new entrants  to Strategy • Technology, pricing, acquisition, management  Empirical data concerning key pricing variables  Select Variables used to assess Rental Strategy Limited historical data exists on single family  rentals for non‐operators to accurately explore  economics… PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 23
  • 25. Carrington:  Single Family Rental Platform  13 affiliate operating companies  Approx. 1,800+ full-time and contract employees  National network of field assessors for asset evaluation Local Contractors  Manage approx. 5,200 properties, 3,200 in rental CPS National Network  Disposed of 34,000 assets and managed 10,000 rental units to date Established relationships Over 2,000 real estate with hundreds of local professionals in national contractors Asset preferred network Management Portfolio 34,000+  40 employees Property properties managed Property Over 850 agents and over  Two regional offices Preservation Sales 40 offices licensed in 22 10,000+ states  Nationwide coverage rental assets managed Technological Infrastructure  Over 35 employees  Provide services in 26 states RNT Logistics  Vendor management  Business analytics  Core portfolio systems  Acquisition and disposition tracking  Financial results and reporting PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 24
  • 26. Private Label Mortgage Lending Non‐Agency Mortgage Lending 2.0 US Mortgage   Prior to 2008, US Gov’t provided explicit or implicit support to 50‐60% of loan volume Market – Supplier of   Recently, Government sponsorship has reached levels approaching 90% Loans  Private label securitization market is extremely limited and economics are challenged Government versus Private Sector Mortgage Originations Source:  Inside Mortgage Finance PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 25
  • 27. Private Label Mortgage Lending  Thought and action‐oriented leadership in the private label market is required  The New   Must improve upon the market’s past inadequacies Private Label  Market  Alignment of interests between the lender and the borrower is critical  All participants in the process must have “skin in the game”  Borrowers must be able to provide documentation for fully underwritten loans Bilateral  • Borrowers must consent to ongoing credit/income requests of servicers Transparency And  • Re‐think Gramm‐Leach‐Bliley Engagement  Lenders must provide plain‐English disclosure   Borrowers should have complete understanding of loan terms and obligations PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 26
  • 28. Residential Investment Themes Discussion Summary & Themes  Non‐Performing Loan (“NPL”) and Rental strategies are often consistent with policymaker’s goals  In early innings of developing the Buy‐to‐Rent strategy for residential housing on a national scale • Concerns about the number of new players that lack the infrastructure and experience • Concerns about the potential for “rental” operators to become property “flippers”  Future of private lending has yet to be determined • Must rethink the relationship between the borrower, lender and investor   • Successful non‐agency market needs to be built on transparency, alignment of interest  • Rules must be clear and cannot be unilaterally changed  Post election, the discussion concerning long‐term plans for the GSEs will heat up  Investors need to be engaged now to help define the future of the private lending market PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL | 27